Science
Opinion | I’m a Scientist in California. Drought Is Worse Than We Thought.
Exterior my lab close to Donner Cross within the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, new animal tracks are on the snow after a winter of hibernation, chicken songs are lofting via the air, and the creek is flowing strongly with water from the melting snow. Spring has come worryingly early to the Sierra Nevada.
This previous week, I joined groups of different scientists gathering crucial measurements of the Sierra Nevada snowpack from over 265 websites all through the state. Sometimes, this measurement marks the transition from snow accumulation season to the soften season and incorporates essentially the most snow of any measurement all year long. The 2022 outcomes, nevertheless, confirmed what these of us monitoring the state’s drought had feared: California’s snowpack is now at 39 p.c of its common, or 23 p.c decrease than on the identical level final 12 months. This alerts a deepening of the drought — already the worst within the western United States in 1,200 years — and one other probably catastrophic hearth season for a lot of the West.
Many individuals have a somewhat simplistic view of drought as a scarcity of rain and snow. That’s correct — to an extent. What it doesn’t account for is human exercise and local weather change that at the moment are dramatically affecting the accessible water and its administration. As extra frequent and enormous wildfires and prolonged dry durations batter the land, our most vital instruments for managing water have gotten much less and fewer correct. On the identical time, our reliance on these fashions to attempt to profit from the little water we’ve got is turning into an increasing number of problematic.
Droughts might final for a number of years and even over a decade with various levels of severity. Throughout these kind of prolonged droughts, soil can turn out to be so dry that it soaks up all new water, which reduces runoff to streams and reservoirs. Soil may turn out to be so dry that the floor turns into arduous and repels water, which might trigger rainwater to pour off the land rapidly and trigger flooding. This implies we now not can depend on comparatively quick durations of rain or snow to fully relieve drought situations the way in which we did with previous droughts.
Many storms with close to record-breaking quantities of rain or snow can be required in a single 12 months to make a big dent in drought situations. October was the second snowiest and December was the snowiest month on file on the snow lab since 1970 thanks to 2 atmospheric rivers that hit California. However the exceptionally dry November and January to March durations have left us with one other 12 months of under common snowpack, rain and runoff situations.
This sort of feast-or-famine winter with huge storms and lengthy, extreme dry durations is anticipated to extend as local weather change continues. In consequence, we’ll want a number of above-average rain and snow years to make up the distinction somewhat than consecutive massive occasions in a single 12 months.
Even with regular or above-average precipitation years, modifications to the land floor current one other complication. Large wildfires, similar to those who we’ve seen within the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains in recent times, trigger distinct modifications in the way in which that snow melts and that water, together with rain, runs off the panorama. The lack of forest cover from fires may end up in better wind speeds and temperatures, which improve evaporation and reduce the quantity of snow water reaching reservoirs.
The local weather, and the world, are altering. What challenges will the long run carry, and the way ought to we reply to them?
Just like prolonged drought, hearth additionally alters soil properties and might create flash flooding throughout intense durations of rain. These panorama modifications, feast-or-famine precipitation patterns and elevated demand on the water provide are making water administration within the West a precarious and troublesome job.
One of the vital instruments for managing water during times of drought are the fashions developed by varied state and federal companies such because the Nationwide Climate Service’s Workplace of Hydrologic Improvement, the Military Corps of Engineers and the California Division of Water Sources. But these fashions undergo from the identical simplistic view of drought and water, and they’re in dire want of an replace.
Land surfaces, snow soften patterns and the local weather have all modified since many of those fashions have been developed, which suggests they’re lacking essential items of in the present day’s water puzzle. What’s prevented updates to the fashions for many years is shrinking funding for science and engineering.
Fashions might not be capable of reliably inform water managers how a lot rain and snow will run off the land into reservoirs, which might imply extreme shortages in a worst-case state of affairs. Given the shrinking reservoir ranges and meager snowpacks of latest years, discrepancies between the water anticipated and that which arrives may imply the distinction between having water within the faucets or total cities operating dry.
We’re wanting down the barrel of a loaded gun with our water sources within the West. Somewhat than investing in physique armor, we’ve been hoping that the set off gained’t be pulled. The present water monitoring and modeling methods aren’t adequate to assist the rising variety of those who want water. I’m fearful concerning the subsequent week, month, 12 months, and about new issues that we’ll inevitably face as local weather change continues and water turns into extra unpredictable.
It’s time for policymakers who allocate funding to put money into updating our water fashions somewhat than sustaining the established order and hoping for the perfect. Giant-scale funding within the companies that preserve and develop these fashions is paramount to getting ready for the way forward for water within the West.
Higher water fashions finally imply extra correct administration of water, and that may result in better water safety and availability for the tens of millions of people that now rely on the altering water provide. It’s an funding in our future and, additional, an funding in our continued skill to inhabit the water-scarce areas within the West. It’s the one method to make sure that we’re ready when the set off is pulled.
Dr. Schwartz is the lead scientist and station supervisor on the College of California, Berkeley, Central Sierra Snow Lab.
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Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
Video: SpaceX Unable to Recover Booster Stage During Sixth Test Flight
President-elect Donald Trump joined Elon Musk in Texas and watched the launch from a nearby location on Tuesday. While the Starship’s giant booster stage was unable to repeat a “chopsticks” landing, the vehicle’s upper stage successfully splashed down in the Indian Ocean.
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