Science
Foreign outbreaks, lower vaccination rates are troubling signs for California’s coming flu season
Last year’s flu season was the worst California had seen in years — and state health officials warn this year could potentially be just as bad.
While forecasting disease isn’t an exact science, there are some troubling signs. In Asia, the flu has made an early comeback, and quickly swelled to epidemic proportions in Japan and Taiwan.
And stateside, some experts are sounding the alarm about continued lower uptake of the flu vaccine. There’s also the possibility of a seasonal COVID-19 wave — the likes of which didn’t materialize last winter, but had been commonplace since the pandemic — as well as a simultaneous rise in respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.
California health officials have previously forecast that this fall-and-winter’s respiratory virus season is expected to be similar to last year’s. If that’s the case, flu would again be the dominant virus fueling hospital admissions compared to COVID-19 and RSV. During the winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24, COVID made up the majority of California hospital admissions caused by respiratory viruses.
“Having people get vaccinated is going to be really key for influenza,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert.
While flu, COVID and RSV are currently at low levels in California, there are signs that respiratory virus season is starting to gear up as temperatures drop and people spend more time indoors.
Compared to rates recorded in the summer, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has seen increases in people reporting cough, fever, chills, aches, sore throat and runny nose, officials said, citing a text-based health survey. The test positivity rate for rhinoviruses and enteroviruses, which typically cause the common cold, is 19.87%. That’s higher than that of the virus that causes COVID-19, 4.2%; or the flu, 1.04%.
In San Francisco, doctors have seen the number of colds being reported in the hospital double, Chin-Hong said. Some workplaces in the Bay Area have seen a number of employees call out sick.
With RSV, flu and COVID-19 rates expected to climb by the holidays, “this is a perfect time to get immunized,” the L.A. County Department of Public Health said in an email.
The fall and winter of 2024-25 brought the nation’s worst flu season in many years, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The number of children who died from flu last season was the highest since the H1N1 swine flu pandemic season of 2009-10, according to a recent report published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Officials reported 280 confirmed deaths among children last season, and about 9 in 10 of those kids were not vaccinated.
Health officials became particularly concerned about reports of a rare, severe complication that targets the brain — influenza-associated encephalopathy, or IAE, which was reported in 109 children nationally last season.
Three in four children with IAE needed intensive care treatment. The median age of children with IAE was 5, and 55% of those diagnosed with the condition had no underlying health conditions.
Of those children, 37 had acute necrotizing encephalopathy, or ANE, a particularly severe form of the disease that results in rapid neurologic decline. Two in five children with ANE died.
Only 1 in 6 of the kids with IAE who were eligible to be vaccinated had gotten the flu shot, health officials say.
The CDC recommends that everyone age 6 months and up get a flu vaccine. New this year, officials are allowing people to order FluMist to be mailed to them at home. FluMist is approved for people ages 2 through 49 and administered by nasal spray rather than injection.
Doctors have been concerned about declining flu vaccination levels. As of late April, just 49.2% of children had gotten a flu shot, lower than the 53.4% who had done so at the same point the previous season, according to preliminary national survey results. Both figures are much lower than the final flu vaccination rate for vaccine-eligible children during the 2019-20 season, which was 63.7%.
Among adults, 46.7% had gotten their flu shot, slightly down from the 47.4% at the same point last season, according to the preliminary survey results.
“Before the COVID-19 pandemic, flu vaccination coverage had been slowly increasing; downturns in coverage occurred during and after the pandemic. Flu vaccination levels have not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels,” the CDC said.
Early data from the Southern Hemisphere indicate that the flu shot’s effectiveness was decent this season — cutting the risk of hospitalization by 50%.
Asia is already reporting plenty of flu cases.
“For influenza right now, it’s raging in Asia,” Chin-Hong said.
Flu is considered to be at epidemic levels in Japan — where news reports say this was the second-earliest start to the season in 20 years — and in Taiwan. Hong Kong health officials have described the flu situation in September and October, before shots became widely available, as “relatively severe.”
The situation there could provide a glimpse of how the flu season will play out in California and beyond.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, officials are also closely monitoring “high” levels in wastewater of a specific kind of cold virus — enterovirus D68, or EV-D68. In rare cases, that virus can cause polio-like paralysis in children called acute flaccid myelitis, or AFM. High levels were reported in a large swath of the Silicon Valley and San Francisco, according to WastewaterSCAN. High levels have also been found in sewage in western San Bernardino County, including Ontario, Chino and Fontana.
The L.A. County Department of Public Health has not yet detected increased signals of EV-D68, and no cases of AFM have been reported this year in Los Angeles or Orange counties.
That virus can transmit through an infected person’s saliva and mucus and likely spreads “when an infected person coughs, sneezes or touches a surface that is then touched by others,” the CDC said.
Parents should call a doctor if their child suffers any symptoms of AFM, which include slurred speech, difficulty swallowing, difficulty moving the eyes, drooping eyelids, pain in the neck, back, arms or legs, weakness in the arm or legs or facial droop.
To protect yourself against respiratory viruses, experts recommend getting vaccinated, washing your hands often, keeping rooms well-ventilated, wearing face masks in crowded indoor public settings, and staying away from sick people.
The California Department of Public Health recommends updated COVID-19 vaccines for everyone age 6 months to 23 months, seniors age 65 and up; as well as older children, teenagers and adults who either have risk factors for severe COVID, or are in close contact with at-risk people.
Children who have never been inoculated against COVID-19 should also get the vaccine, as should pregnant women and anyone else who wants to get the shot, the state says.
RSV immunizations are recommended for everyone age 75 and up, babies younger than 8 months, and pregnant women between 32 weeks to 36 weeks of gestation.
The immunizations are also recommended for adults age 50 to 74 with risk factors, as well as babies with risk factors between 8 months and 19 months. Older adults who have been previously immunized against RSV generally don’t need to get another vaccine, according to current guidelines.
Our universe might be chock-full of cosmic wonder, but you can observe only a fraction of astronomical phenomena with the naked eye. Meteor showers, natural fireworks that streak brightly across the night sky, are one of them.
The latest observable meteor shower will be the Lyrids, which has been active since April 14 and is forecast to continue through April 30. The shower reaches its peak April 21 to 22, or Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
According to NASA, the Lyrids are one of the oldest known meteor showers, and have been enjoyed by stargazers for nearly 3,000 years. Their bright, speedy streaks are caused by the dusty debris from a comet named Thatcher. They appear to spring from the constellation Lyra, which right now can be seen in the eastern sky at night in the Northern Hemisphere.
The moon will be about 27 percent full tonight, appearing as a thick crescent in the sky, according to the American Meteor Society.
To get a hint at when to best watch for the Lyrids, you can use this tool, which relies on data from the Global Meteor Network. It shows fireball activity levels in real time.
And while you gaze at the heavens, keep an eye out for other stray meteors streaking across the night sky. Skywatchers are reporting that the amount of fireballs is double what is usually seen by this point in the year.
Where meteor showers come from
There is a chance you might see a meteor on any given night, but you are most likely to catch one during a shower. Meteor showers are caused by Earth passing through the rubble trailing a comet or asteroid as it swings around the sun. This debris, which can be as small as a grain of sand, leaves behind a glowing stream of light as it burns up in Earth’s atmosphere.
Meteor showers occur around the same time every year and can last for days or weeks. But there is only a small window when each shower is at its peak, which happens when Earth reaches the densest part of the cosmic debris. The peak is the best time to look for a shower. From our point of view on Earth, the meteors will appear to come from the same point in the sky.
The Perseid meteor shower, for example, peaks in mid-August from the constellation Perseus. The Geminids, which occur every December, radiate from the constellation Gemini.
How to watch a meteor shower
Michelle Nichols, the director of public observing at the Adler Planetarium in Chicago, recommends forgoing the use of telescopes or binoculars while watching a meteor shower.
“You just need your eyes and, ideally, a dark sky,” she said.
That’s because meteors can shoot across large swaths of the sky, so observing equipment can limit your field of view.
Some showers are strong enough to produce up to 100 streaks an hour, according to the American Meteor Society, though you probably won’t see that many.
“Almost everybody is under a light-polluted sky,” Ms. Nichols said. “You may think you’re under a dark sky, but in reality, even in a small town, you can have bright lights nearby.”
Planetariums, local astronomy clubs or even maps like this one can help you figure out where to go to escape excessive light. The best conditions for catching a meteor shower are a clear sky with no moon or cloud cover, sometime between midnight and sunrise. (Moonlight affects visibility in the same way as light pollution, washing out fainter sources of light in the sky.) Make sure to give your eyes at least 30 minutes to adjust to seeing in the dark.
Ms. Nichols also recommends wearing layers, even during the summer. “You’re going to be sitting there for quite a while, watching,” she said. “It’s going to get chilly, even in August.”
Bring a cup of cocoa or tea for even more warmth. Then lie back, scan the sky and enjoy the show.
Where weather is least likely to affect your view
Storm systems sweep across the country in early spring, and some will be obscuring skies tonight. But there will still be plenty of areas with clear skies, particularly in parts of the central United States.
“The best spot is going to be in the Upper Midwest,” said Rich Bann, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.
Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa will offer especially good sky-viewing weather and a beach on the Great Lakes could be a nice spot to look up at the stars.
But don’t expect to view the show from Chicago, as Illinois could see some thunderstorms. The weather will be better in the Northern and Central Plains, particularly the eastern Dakotas.
High, wispy clouds are expected over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. But, Mr. Bann said, “you may be able to see some shooting stars through thin clouds.”
Clouds will be draped across much of the Southeast and the Northeast, though there could be some clearing in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. Remember, the meteors could be visible all night long. If you look outside and see clouds, try again later.
Catching the spectacle will be challenging across much of the West, particularly from Washington into Northern California, where a storm system is bringing rain and snow. That system will move east overnight.
There are likely to be some pockets of clear skies at times across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southwest Utah, Mr. Bann said.
Amy Graff contributed reporting.
WASHINGTON — Amid growing national security concerns, the FBI said Tuesday that it has launched a broad investigation in the deaths or disappearances of at least 10 scientists and staff connected to highly sensitive research, including four from the Los Angeles area.
“The FBI is spearheading the effort to look for connections into the missing and deceased scientists. We are working with the Department of Energy, Department of War, and with our state and state and local law enforcement partners to find answers,” the agency said in a statement.
The FBI’s announcement comes after the House Oversight Committee announced that it would investigate reports of the disappearance and deaths of the scientists, sending letters seeking information from the agencies involved in the federal inquiry as well as NASA, which owns the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, where three of the missing or dead scientists worked.
“If the reports are accurate, these deaths and disappearances may represent a grave threat to U.S. national security and to U.S. personnel with access to scientific secrets,” Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.), chairman of the committee, and Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) wrote in the letters.
President Trump told reporters last week that he had been briefed on the missing and dead scientists, which he described as “pretty serious stuff.” He said at the time that he expected answers on whether the deaths were connected “in the next week and a half.”
Michael David Hicks, who studied comets and asteroids at JPL, was the first of the scientists who disappeared or died. He died on July 30, 2023, at the age of 59. No cause of death was disclosed.
A year later, JPL physicist Frank Maiwald died at 61, with no cause of death disclosed.
Two other Los Angeles scientists are part of the string of deaths and disappearances.
On June 22, 2025, Monica Jacinto Reza, a materials scientist at JPL, disappeared while on a hike near Mt. Waterman in the San Gabriel Mountains.
On Feb. 16, Caltech astrophysicist Carl Grillmair was fatally shot on the porch of his Llano home. The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s department arrested Freddy Snyder, 29, in connection with the shooting. Snyder had been arrested in December on suspicion of trespassing on Grillmair’s property.
Snyder has been charged with murder.
There is no evidence at this point that the deaths and disappearances, which occurred over a span of four years, are connected.
A spokesperson for NASA, which owns JPL, said in a statement on X that the agency is “coordinating and cooperating with the relevant agencies in relation to the missing scientists.
“At this time, nothing related to NASA indicates a national security threat,” agency spokesperson Bethany Stevens wrote. “The agency is committed to transparency and will provide more information as able.”
Representatives from Caltech, which manages JPL, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The sun had barely risen over the Pacific Ocean when a small motorboat carrying a team of Indigenous artisans and Mexican biologists dropped anchor in a rocky cove near Bahías de Huatulco.
Mauro Habacuc Avendaño Luis, one of the craftsmen, was the first to wade to shore. With an agility belying his age, he struck out over the boulders exposed by low tide. Crouching on a slippery ledge pounded by surf, he reached inside a crevice between two rocks. There, lodged among the urchins, was a snail with a knobby gray shell the size of a walnut. The sight might not dazzle tourists who travel here to see humpback whales, but for Mr. Avendaño, 85, these drab little mollusks represent a way of life.
Marine snails in the genus Plicopurpura are sacred to the Mixtec people of Pinotepa de Don Luis, a small town in southwestern Oaxaca. Men like Mr. Avendaño have been sustainably “milking” them for radiant purple dye for at least 1,500 years. The color suffuses Mixtec textiles and spiritual beliefs. Called tixinda, it symbolizes fertility and death, as well as mythic ties between lunar cycles, women and the sea.
The future of these traditions — and the fate of the snails — are uncertain. The mollusks are subject to intense poaching pressure despite federal protections intended to protect them. Fishermen break them (and the other mollusks they eat) open and sell the meat to local restaurants. Tourists who comb the beaches pluck snails off the rocks and toss them aside.
A severe earthquake in 2020 thrust formerly submerged parts of their habitat above sea level, fatally tossing other mollusks in the snail’s food web to the air, and making once inaccessible places more available to poachers.
Decades ago, dense clusters of snails the size of doorknobs were easy to find, according to Mr. Avendaño. “Full of snails,” he said, sweeping a calloused, violet-stained hand across the coves. Now, most of the snails he finds are small, just over an inch, and yield only a few milliliters of dye.
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