Science
Far From the Fires, the Deadly Risks of Smoke Are Intensifying
It kills more people each year than car crashes, war or drugs do. This invisible killer is the air pollution from sources like cars and trucks or factory smokestacks.
But as wildfires intensify and grow more frequent in a warming world, the smoke from these fires is emerging as a new and deadly pollution source, health experts say. By some estimates, wildfire smoke — which contains a mixture of hazardous air pollutants like particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, ozone and lead — already causes as many as 675,000 premature deaths a year worldwide, as well as a range of respiratory, heart and other diseases.
Research shows that wildfire smoke is starting to erode the world’s progress in cleaning up pollution from tailpipes and smokestacks, as climate change supercharges fires.
“It’s heartbreaking, it really is,” said Dr. Afif El-Hasan, a pediatrician who specializes in asthma care at Kaiser Permanente in Southern California and a board director of the American Lung Association. Wildfires “are putting our homes in danger, but they’re also putting our health in danger,” Dr. El-Hasan said, “and it’s only going to get worse.”
Those health concerns were coming to the fore this week as wildfires ravaged the Los Angeles area. Residents began to return to their neighborhoods, many strewed with smoldering ash and rubble, to survey the damage. Air pollution levels remained high in many parts of the city, including in northwest coastal Los Angeles, where the air quality index climbed to “dangerous” levels.
Los Angeles, in particular, has seen air pollution at levels that could be raising daily mortality by between 5 to 15 percent, said Carlos F. Gold, an expert in the health effects of air pollution at the University of California, San Diego.
That means current death counts, “while tragic, are likely large underestimates,” he said. People with underlying health issues, as well as older people and children, are particularly vulnerable.
The rapid spread of this week’s fires into dense neighborhoods, where they burned homes, furniture, cars, electronics and materials like paint and plastic, made the smoke more dangerous, said Dr. Lisa Patel, a pediatrician in the San Francisco Bay Area and the executive director of the Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health.
A recent study found that even for homes that are spared destruction, smoke and ash blown inside could adhere to rugs, sofas and drywall, creating health hazards that can linger for months. “We’re breathing in this toxic brew of volatile organic compounds and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and hexavalent chromium,” Dr. Patel said. “All of it is noxious.”
Intensifying and more frequent fires, meanwhile, are upending experts’ understanding of smoke’s health effects. “Wildfire season is no longer a season,” said Colleen Reid, who researches the effects of air pollution from wildfires on heath at the University of Colorado Boulder. “We have fires all year round that affect the same population repeatedly.”
“The health impacts are not the same as if you were exposed once, and then not again for 10 years,” she said. “The effects of that is something that we still don’t really know.”
A United Nations report from 2022 concluded that the risk of devastating wildfires around the world would surge in coming decades. Heating and drying caused by climate change, along with development in places vulnerable to fire, was expected to intensify a “global wildfire crisis,” the report said. Both the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires have more than doubled in the past two decades. In the United States, the average acreage burned a year has surged since the 1990s.
Now, pollution from wildfires is reversing what had been a decades-long improvement in air quality brought about by cleaner cars and power generation. Since at least 2016, in nearly three-quarters of states in the U.S. mainland, wildfire smoke has eroded about 25 percent of progress in reducing concentrations of a type of particulate matter called PM 2.5, a Nature study in 2023 found.
In California, wildfire smoke’s effect on air quality is offsetting public health gains brought about by a decline in air pollution from automobiles and factories, state health officials have found. (By releasing carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases into the atmosphere, wildfires are themselves a big contributor to climate change: The wildfires that ravaged Canada’s boreal forests in 2023 produced more greenhouse gases than the burning of fossil fuels in all but three countries.)
”It’s not a pretty picture,” said Dr. Gold of U.C. San Diego, who took part in the Nature study. If planet-warming gas emissions continue at current levels, “we’ve got some work that suggests that mortality from wildfire smoke in the U.S. could go up by 50 percent,” he said.
One silver lining is that the Santa Ana winds that so ferociously fueled the flames in recent days have been blowing some of the smoke toward the ocean. That stands in contrast to the smoke from the 2023 Canadian wildfires that drifted to New York and other American states hundreds of miles away, causing spikes in emergency room visits for asthma.
At one point that year, more than a third of Americans, from the East Coast to the Midwest, were under air quality alerts from Canadian wildfire smoke. “We’re seeing new and worsening threats in places that are not used to them,” Dr. Patel, the pediatrician, said.
The new normal is bringing about changes to health care, Dr. Patel said. More health systems are sending out air quality alerts to vulnerable patients. In the small community hospital where she works, “every child that comes in with wheezing or asthma, I talk to them about how air pollution is getting worse because of wildfires and climate change,” she said.
“I teach them how to look up air quality, and say they should ask for an air purifier,” Dr. Patel added. She also cautions that children should not participate in cleanup after a wildfire.
Scientists are still trying to understand the full range of wildfire smoke’s health effects. One big question is how much of what researchers know about vehicle exhaust and other forms of air pollution apply to wildfire smoke, said Mark R. Miller, a researcher at the Center for Cardiovascular Science at the University of Edinburgh who led a recent global survey of climate change, air pollution and wildfires.
For example, exhaust particles “are so small that when we breathe them in, they go deep down into our lungs and are actually small enough that they can pass from our lungs into our blood,” he said. “And once they’re in our blood, they can be carried around our body and start to build up.”
That means air pollution affects our entire body, he said. “It has effects on people who have diabetes, has effects on the liver and the kidney, it has effects on the brain, on pregnancy,” he said. What’s still not clear is whether pollution from wildfires has all of those same effects. “But it’s likely,” he said.
Experts have a range of advice for people living in areas with smoke. Keep an eye on air quality alerts, and follow evacuation orders. Stay indoors as much as possible, and use air purifiers. When venturing outside, wear N95 masks. Don’t do strenuous exercise in bad air. Keep children, older people and other vulnerable groups away from the worst smoke.
Ultimately, tackling climate change and cutting back on all kinds of air pollution is the way to reduce the overall burden on health, said Dr. El-Hasan of the American Lung Association. “Can you imagine how much worse things would be if we hadn’t started cleaning up emissions from our cars?” he said. “I’m trying to think, glass half full, but it does break my heart and it does worry me.”
Science
California regulators approve rules to curb methane leaks and prevent fires at landfills
In one of the most important state environmental decisions this year, California air regulators adopted new rules designed to reduce methane leaks and better respond to disastrous underground fires at landfills statewide.
California Air Resources Board members voted 12-0 on Thursday to approve a batch of new regulations for the state’s nearly 200 large landfills, designed to minimize the release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas produced by decomposing organic waste. Landfills are California’s second-largest source of methane emissions, following only the state’s large dairy cow and livestock herds.
The new requirements will force landfill operators to install additional pollution controls; more comprehensively investigate methane leaks on parts of landfills that are inaccessible with on-the-ground monitoring using new technology like drones and satellites; and fix equipment breakdowns much faster. Landfill operators also will be required to repair leaks identified through California’s new satellite-detection program.
The regulation is expected to prevent the release of 17,000 metric tons of methane annually — an amount capable of warming the atmosphere as much as 110,000 gas-fired cars driven for a year.
It also will curtail other harmful landfill pollution, such as lung-aggravating sulfur and cancer-causing benzene. Landfill operators will be required to keep better track of high temperatures and take steps to minimize the fire risks that heat could create.
There are underground fires burning in at least two landfills in Southern California — smoldering chemical reactions that are incinerating buried garbage, releasing toxic fumes and spewing liquid waste. Regulators found explosive levels of methane emanating from many other landfills across the state.
During the three-hour Air Resources Board hearing preceding the vote, several Californians who live near Chiquita Canyon Landfill — one of the known sites where garbage is burning deep underground — implored the board to act to prevent disasters in other communities across the state.
“If these rules were already updated, maybe my family wouldn’t be sick,” said Steven Howse, a 27-year resident of Val Verde. “My house wouldn’t be for sale. My close friend and neighbor would still live next door to me. And I wouldn’t be pleading with you right now. You have the power to change this.”
Landfill operators, including companies and local governments, voiced their concern about the costs and labor needed to comply with the regulation.
“We want to make sure that the rule is implementable for our communities, not unnecessarily burdensome,” said John Kennedy, a senior policy advocate for Rural County Representatives of California, a nonprofit organization representing 40 of the state’s 58 counties, many of which own and operate landfills. “While we support the overarching goals of the rule, we remain deeply concerned about specific measures including in the regulation.”
Lauren Sanchez, who was appointed chair of the California Air Resources Board in October, recently attended the United Nations’ COP30 climate conference in Brazil with Gov. Gavin Newsom. What she learned at the summit, she said, made clear to her that California’s methane emissions have international consequences, and that the state has an imperative to reduce them.
“The science is clear, acting now to reduce emissions of methane and other short-lived climate pollutants is the best way to immediately slow the pace of climate change,” Sanchez said.
Science
See How Home Insurance Premiums Are Changing Near You
Insurance premiums are rising fast in the parts of the United States most exposed to climate-related disasters like wildfires and hurricanes.
New research shows that, as insurance has sharply pushed up the cost of owning a home, the price shock is starting to reverberate through the broader real estate market.
Rising insurance costs are eating into household budgets.
In some areas of the country that are exposed to disasters, homes are not selling because prospective buyers can’t afford both the mortgage and the insurance.
In parts of the hail-prone Midwestern states, insurance now eats up more than one-fifth of the average homeowner’s total housing payments, including mortgage costs and property taxes. In Orleans Parish, La., that number is nearly 30 percent.
Home insurance costs have soared where climate hazards are highest.
Nationally, insurance rates have risen by an average of 58 percent since 2018, outpacing inflation by a substantial margin. But that growth has been highly uneven across the United States.
Places that are most vulnerable to climate-related disasters like hurricanes, fires and hail are seeing some of the largest premium increases. It’s not always the case that the highest climate risk translates into the highest insurance costs. Local policies and regulations have helped keep prices lower in high-risk places, like parts of California. Other factors, like a homeowner’s credit score, can affect premiums, too.
What’s driving up insurance prices?
Since 2017, an obscure part of the insurance market, known as reinsurance, has helped push up premiums. Insurance companies buy reinsurance to help limit their exposure when a catastrophe hits. Over the past several years, reinsurance companies have experienced what Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder, the researchers who led the new study, call a “climate epiphany.” As a result, the rates they charge to protect home insurance companies against catastrophic losses have roughly doubled.
Insurance providers have, in turn, passed these costs on to homeowners. The rapid repricing of climate risk is responsible for about 20 percent of home insurance premium increases since 2017, according to Dr. Keys and Dr. Mulder.
What else is contributing to high rates? Rebuilding costs are responsible for about 35 percent of the recent changes, the research found. Population shifts and inflation are factors, too.
High insurance prices are weighing down home values.
Since 2018, a financial shock in the home insurance market has meant that homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires sell for an average of $43,900 less than they otherwise would have, the research found.
In many places, insurance has been a relatively small part of the homebuying equation. Now, for many, it’s a major consideration.
For several homeowners we interviewed in Louisiana, monthly insurance costs are now higher than their home loan payments.
The research shows buyers may be factoring rising insurance costs into the prices they’re willing to pay for homes. As a result, homes in some areas are selling for less.
Methodology
Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder calculated annual homeowners’ insurance costs by separating mortgage and tax payments from loan-level escrow data obtained from CoreLogic, a property and risk analytics firm. Households whose payments were captured by CoreLogic were not necessarily present in all years of data from 2014 to 2024.
The home insurance share of total home payments is based on mean values. Total home payments include insurance, property tax and mortgage principal and interest costs. Escrow payments typically do not include utilities, homeowners’ association fees.
Science
L.A. County’s first flu death confirmed in a season that could be harsh
L.A. County has had its first flu death in a season that health officials have warned could be severe.
The county Department of Public Health confirmed the influenza-associated fatality on Wednesday.
The death occurred in an elderly individual with underlying health conditions who had not received a flu vaccination this season, according to the Department of Public Health.
“We send our condolences to the family and loved ones of the person we lost. This tragic death reminds us how serious influenza can be,” Dr. Muntu Davis, Los Angeles County health officer, said in a news release.
Flu activity is low at the moment, though it is likely to increase with Thanksgiving next week and the holiday season, which typically involves more plane travel and indoor gatherings.
Last year’s flu season was the worst California had seen in years — and state health officials have already warned that this year could be just as bad.
Health experts, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, recommend an annual flu vaccination for everyone older than 6 months.
Nationwide, the number of children who died from flu last season — 280 — was the highest in about 15 years, according to one report. About 9 in 10 of those children were not vaccinated, officials said.
The flu vaccine can be administered at the same time as the COVID-19 vaccine and takes two weeks for protection to develop.
“You can also reduce your risk by taking simple but powerful steps,” Davis said. “[W]ash your hands frequently, stay home and away from others when you feel sick, and wear a well-fitting mask in crowded indoor spaces, around people at higher risk, or whenever you have symptoms.”
As respiratory virus activity increases in L.A. County, the Department of Public Health also recommends that everyone 6 months and older receive an updated COVID-19 vaccine. RSV immunization is also recommended for older adults, pregnant people and infants.
L.A. County residents can find a vaccine site near them by visiting the department’s website.
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