Science
Earthquake risks and rising costs: The price of operating California's last nuclear plant
![Earthquake risks and rising costs: The price of operating California's last nuclear plant Earthquake risks and rising costs: The price of operating California's last nuclear plant](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/bfd1eba/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x4301+0+582/resize/1200x630!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe3%2Ff7%2Fb6250ed8417aa2b107bdd4153e2d%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-003.jpg)
Under two gargantuan domes of thick concrete and steel that rise along California’s rugged Central Coast, subatomic particles slam into uranium, triggering one of the most energetic reactions on Earth.
Amid coastal bluffs speckled with brush and buckwheat, Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant uses this energy to spin two massive copper coils at a blistering 30 revolutions per second. In 2022, these generators — about the size of school buses — produced 6% of Californians’ power and 11% of their non-fossil energy.
Yet it comes at almost double the cost of other low-carbon energy sources and, according to the federal agency that oversees the plant, carries a roughly 1 in 25,000 chance of suffering a Chernobyl-style nuclear meltdown before its scheduled decommissioning in just five years — due primarily to nearby fault lines.
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As Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration looks to the aging reactor to help ease the state’s transition to renewable energy, Diablo Canyon is drawing renewed criticism from those who say the facility is too expensive and too dangerous to continue operating.
Diablo is just the latest in a series of plants built in the atomic frenzy of the 1970s and ’80s seeking an operating license renewal from the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission as the clock on their initial 40-year run ticks down. As the price of wind and solar continues to drop, the criticisms against Diablo reflect a nationwide debate.
![Two men walk past two massive turbine generator.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/3bb42e1/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F39%2Fc4%2Fa63d1749493a94f749a3a5da6b74%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-007.jpg)
Tom Jones, right, a regulatory and environmental senior director at PG&E, and Jerel Strickland, a senior licensing and spent nuclear storage consultant, walk past one of two massive turbine-generator units inside the turbine building at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant recently.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
The core of the debate lives in the quaint coastal town of San Luis Obispo, just 12 miles inland from the concrete domes, where residents expected Diablo Canyon to shut down over the next year after its license expired.
Instead, Newsom struck a deal on the last possible day of the state’s 2021-22 legislative session to keep the plant running until 2030, citing worries over summer blackouts as the state transitions to clean energy. The activists who had negotiated the shutdown with PG&E and the state six years prior were left stunned.
Today, the plant is still buzzing with life: Nuclear fission, in the deep heart of the plant, continues to superheat water to 600 degrees at 150 times atmospheric pressure. Generators continue to whir with a haunting and deafening hum that reverberates throughout the massive turbine deck.
Left untouched, nuclear fission erupts into a runaway chain reaction that can heat the core of a nuclear plant to thousands of degrees, liquifying the metal around it into radioactive lava.
So, operators have to constantly stifle the reaction to keep it under control.
In the event of an earthquake, they need to stop the reaction as quickly as possible. But if the shaking is so rapid and intense that the plant is critically damaged before it can shut down, operators could become helpless in preventing a meltdown.
![Silhouetted man in front of a display.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/3ce40b4/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc6%2Fe5%2Fbd2409754fae99075ae71569b5fe%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-016.jpg)
Tom Jones, senior director of Regulatory Environmental and Repurposing at PG&E, talks about how the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant operates.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
![A man's profile is reflected in a display that illustrates atomic fission.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/82fbc81/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8018x5297+0+0/resize/2000x1321!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F1b%2Fc4%2F801df75f4d848d9219ef6f1f6416%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-004.jpg)
Tom Jones, senior director of Regulatory Environmental and Repurposing at PG&E, is reflected in a display that explains the fission process at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant recently.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Diablo Canyon is built to endure specific intensities and speeds of shaking — but predicting how likely an earthquake is to exceed those specifications is no easy task. Earthquakes are the result of deeply complex underground motion and forces, and they’re notoriously chaotic.
In order to start estimating the seismic safety of the plant, geophysicists have to understand: first, where the faults are; second, how much they’re slipping to trigger earthquakes; and finally, when those quakes hit, how much shaking they cause.
Earthquakes account for about 65% of the risk for a worst-case scenario meltdown. Potential internal fires at the plant make up another 18%. The last 17% is made up of everything from aircraft impacts and meteorites to sink holes and snow.
In assessing the likelihood of all these threats, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimates that in any given year, each of Diablo Canyon’s two reactor units has a roughly 1 in 12,000 chance of experiencing a nuclear meltdown similar to Japan’s Fukushima disaster.
Likewise, there’s about a 1 in 127,000 chance a failure will cause the plant to release exorbitant amounts radioactive material into the atmosphere before residents could evacuate, creating a Chernobyl-style disaster.
This means that, every year, nearby residents have roughly the same chance of seeing a nuclear meltdown as dying in a car crash. Also, in any given year, they’re about 50 times more likely to face a mass-casualty radioactive catastrophe than get struck by lightning.
Diablo Canyon employees work around the clock to ensure the risk is as small as possible. “Our safety culture, it’s always on the top of my mind,” said Maureen Zawalick, the vice president of business and technical services at Diablo. “It’s in my DNA.”
![A woman stands on a boat as a nuclear power plant rises on the shore behind her.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/bcfaeb9/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9b%2F3c%2F98efd5504cdb9ab1fe6217683c5e%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-026.jpg)
Maureen Zawalick, PG&E Business and Technical Services vice president, in her office at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
The plant is the only one in the U.S. with a dedicated geoscience team that studies the region’s seismic landscape. And like other nuclear facilities, Diablo has done countless tests on its equipment, hosted walkthroughs with regulators to identify possible points of failure and generated thousands of pages of analysis on the facility’s ability to withstand the largest earthquake possible at the site.
Earthquake precautions include massive metal dampers that are fixed to essential infrastructure, such as the duct carrying the control rooms’ air supply. In the event of a tremor, monstrous concrete pillars penetrate deep into the bedrock to keep the building and essential infrastructure grounded. The hefty concrete walls reinforced with steel rebar as thick as a human arm safely distribute the forces throughout the structure to prevent critical cracks or collapses.
If the plant loses power, there are backup generators for the backup generators.
![A worker rolls a utility cart past a billboard.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/548a1b2/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F92%2Fb9%2Ff1bcb96d4c7db3a9515318042c8f%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-018.jpg)
A worker pushes a utility cart past a billboard that lists employee goals at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant recently.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Operators spend a fifth of their time on the job training for every possible nightmare. Diablo has a simulator on site that’s an exact replica of the Unit One control room. It’s capable of putting operators through the worst conditions imaginable. It shakes with the vigor of a real earthquake. The lights flicker and the analog dials spin back up as emergency power comes online.
For everyone working on site — including the senior leadership team — safety is personal. Should something go wrong, their lives are on the line.
“With any source of energy, there is risk,” said Zawalick. “All the independent assessments, all the audits, all the third party reviews, all of that …. is what gives me the confidence and the security and the safety of why I’ve been out here almost 30 years.” Her office is no more than 500 feet from the reactors.
“If there ever was an earthquake of any magnitude in this community,” she said, “I would grab my two daughters and we’d come here.”
![A woman's profile is silhouetted in a picture window that overlooks an industrial site and the ocean.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/f2a8274/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fa8%2F14%2F4b3f9574486ea88b4d74d59590af%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-008.jpg)
Maureen Zawalick, PG&E Business and Technical Services vice president, looks out her office window at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant recently.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Many critics charge that the risks are understated — due in part to a cozy relationship between industry and regulators. (Some scientists involved with one of Diablo Canyon’s two independent review organizations have collaborated on scientific papers with PG&E staff and funding.)
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission also oversees the plant and conducts its own investigations. In July, the government agency dismissed all three formal criticisms against Diablo’s seismic safety in the plant’s license renewal process.
Sam Blakeslee, a San Luis Opispo geophysicist and former state senator and Assembly member, has a list of technical concerns — primarily the lack of shaking data close to fault lines, which are used to inform the models that predict earthquake motion at the plant — but he likens the core of his concern to the NASA Challenger disaster.
NASA publicly touted a strong safety culture and low chances of things going wrong. Yet, the investigation found political and public pressures had corrupted the safety from the top down.
He argues this is a possibility for any large organization dealing with complex and potentially dangerous systems. Therefore, people need to constantly hold the plant accountable.
“That’s why I tend to try to make sure that the community voice is present,” he said, “ because we are the ones that will pay the price.”
In 2022, Newsom introduced a proposal to keep Diablo Canyon open past its two reactors’ 2024 and 2025 shutdown dates. His proposal, distributed to lawmakers just three weeks before the end of the legislative session, set off a flurry of negotiations among PG&E, the governor and the Legislature.
After discussion drew on past midnight, the Legislature passed the bill.
But it comes at a cost.
While the average price of solar and wind have dropped dramatically over the past 15 years, nuclear’s has been steadily rising. In 2009, solar cost three times what nuclear did, and wind was about even with it. Now, nuclear is over two times the cost of both renewables.
Technical advancements have slashed the price of renewable energy, but nuclear power has faced more outages, equipment replacements and increasingly stringent and expensive safety requirements in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.
One study from MIT researchers found that about a third of the increasing cost could be attributed to safety requirements from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They attribute another third to research and development projects for efficiency, reliability and safety improvements, and they assign the final third to a decrease in worker productivity — perhaps in part due to lower morale.
![Fog rises behind twin containment domes at a nuclear power plant.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/b44362e/2147483647/strip/true/crop/7644x4899+0+0/resize/2000x1282!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd4%2Fee%2Fc6d5adb948ea9fc268fccc9456dd%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-002.jpg)
Twin containment domes rise above the facility as seen through a windshield on the drive to the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
PG&E is estimating that Diablo Canyon will produce energy at $91 per megawatt-hour during its extension. (The average U.S. household buys about 10 megawatt-hours every year.)
However, the Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility argues the plant’s cost is even higher. David Weisman, the legislative director at the alliance, said PG&E is using optimistic predictions of its energy output for the extended period — 5% higher than previous years.
On top of that, the state gave PG&E a $1.4-billion loan to alleviate the initial costs of extended operations. But Wiesman said the funds don’t necessarily need to go toward offsetting the cost of running Diablo. The federal government agreed to reimburse the state up to $1.1 billion — depending on whether the plant meets specific operating criteria — and PG&E is expected to pay off the rest of the loan with profits.
While the loan isn’t a cost that consumers would see on their energy bills, taxpayers across the country could foot the bill. Weisman argued that it brings Diablo’s cost to a maximum of $115 per megawatt-hour — roughly double the cost of solar.
Yet Newsom argues that if California is to meet its goals of 60% renewable energy by 2030, Diablo needs to stay online in the meantime to ensure the state has reliable power amid heatwaves and wildfires.
Diablo Canyon essentially runs 24/7, providing constant power to the state (assuming it doesn’t have any issues, which it sometimes does). For solar to provide similarly constant power, the electric grid will require a massive expansion of its battery infrastructure to store the energy between the midday peak of energy production and the evening peak of energy use.
However, new studies are finding that energy storage is a feasible approach to grid reliability — and that even when adding the price of that infrastructure, solar still costs less than nuclear.
![Tom Jones talks inside the turbine building at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/7f176d5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F23%2Fc4%2F547a57d54ff998b6edf9408f90ee%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-006.jpg)
Tom Jones, a regulatory and environmental senior director at PG&E, talks about the number of days that Turbine Unit One has operated to bring power to California while inside the turbine building at Diablo Canyon Power Plant recently.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Since Diablo’s extension was signed into law, California has almost doubled its battery storage. The state now has enough to supplement about a quarter of the state’s power needs for about half an hour during peak energy usage (although, in practice, it would likely supplement much less for much longer).
“That’s four or five Diablo Canyons,” said Weisman. Newsom should “save the people of California [billions of dollars] thrown down PG&E’s rat hole, declare triumphant victory in the renewable race and accept the laurels.”
Instead, at a recent press event announcing California had reached a fifth of its storage capacity goal, Newsom laughed off the idea that Californians will no longer have to worry about blackouts.
“We have a lot of work to do still in moving this transition, with the kind of stability that’s required,” he said. “So no, this is not today announcing that blackouts are part of our past.”
Diablo Canyon’s leaders and advocates view the plant as supporting California through this challenging transition period: It’s not perfect, but it provides the state with much-needed reliable, clean power, they say.
In a conference call shortly after Diablo’s initial 2024 shutdown date was negotiated, then-chief executive of PG&E Tony Earley acknowledged the plant would eventually become too expensive to operate.
“As we make this transition, Diablo Canyon’s full output will no longer be required,” he said.
![Steam rises from the sea near a nuclear power plant.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/e3d0855/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F7d%2Fd3%2Fc05f045045ffaaa4238a2e24d13a%2F1468527-me-0809-diablo-canyon-nuclear-power-plant-gem-010.jpg)
Steam rises from the Pacific Ocean where an outfall of heated water from the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant pours into coastal waters.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Zawalick said the Diablo team is ready to continue operating as long as the state needs it to. “Thinking about electrification, [electric vehicle] demand, continued drought, the temperatures we’re seeing, wildfires … tariffs — I mean, the list goes on,” she said. “That’s making the equation a bit challenging to see exactly when Diablo will shut down versus how long Diablo will be needed by the state.”
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Science
Tim Walz's son Gus has a nonverbal learning disorder. What is that?
![Tim Walz's son Gus has a nonverbal learning disorder. What is that? Tim Walz's son Gus has a nonverbal learning disorder. What is that?](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/529371a/2147483647/strip/true/crop/3314x1740+0+238/resize/1200x630!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fa9%2F2d%2F48d2e1b84c61954c41a1ec6a17a4%2Felection-2024-dnc-35167.jpg)
After his heartfelt reaction to his father’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention thrust him into the spotlight, 17-year-old Gus Walz has become one of the most high-profile people with nonverbal learning disorder.
The condition doesn’t mean Gus can’t speak — he does. After hearing his dad, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, describe his family as “my entire world” Wednesday night, the tearful teenager rose to his feet, pointed toward the stage and said, “That’s my dad!”
Gus is one of millions of Americans with nonverbal learning disorder. A 2020 study in JAMA Network Open estimated that 3% to 4% of children and adolescents in the U.S. may have the condition, and another study this year in Scientific Reports concluded that the prevalence in children may be as high as 8%.
The condition, known as NVLD, was first recognized in 1967 and doesn’t yet have a formal clinical definition. It is characterized by a significant gap between verbal abilities — which are just fine — and nonverbal kinds of learning that involve visual-spacial processing, such as telling time on an analog clock, reading a map and balancing a budget.
Those challenges with spacial awareness can give children trouble with motor skills. That can make them clumsy or cause problems with tasks like tying shoes, using silverware and writing by hand, according to the NVLD Project, a nonprofit that aims to have the condition added to the American Psychiatric Assn.’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders.
In a way, having NVLD is like the opposite of having dyslexia, according to Scott Bezsylko, who works with neurodivergent students as executive director of Winston Preparatory School.
Reading is not a problem for kids with NVLD, who often have a large vocabulary. They’re also able to recall facts and memorize things like multiplication tables.
School becomes more challenging toward the end of elementary school, when learning becomes more about noticing patterns and applying concepts. That can cause problems with reading comprehension and more advanced kinds of math problems.
NLVD also affects higher-order thinking, which is used to organize our thoughts and plan a project that requires multiple steps.
Tim Walz and his wife Gwen told People magazine that they noticed differences between Gus and his classmates from an early age, and that those differences “became increasingly clear” as he grew older. The couple, both teachers, didn’t specify what those differences were.
Gus was recognized as having NVLD “when he was becoming a teenager,” the Walzes said, adding that he also has attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and an anxiety disorder.
It’s not uncommon for people with NVLD to have an ADHD diagnosis as well, according to the Child Mind Institute. Both conditions can make a child seem disorganized or inattentive; in the case of NVLD, it’s because they don’t understand the assignment being discussed.
Some features of NVLD also overlap with those of autism spectrum disorder. People with NVLD may be socially awkward because they don’t recognize the meaning behind facial expressions, body language and other nonverbal forms of communication. They may compensate by asking a lot of questions, which can come off as annoying.
Difficulty with visual-spacial processing can make it hard for those with NVLD to respect other people’s personal space. Plus, their challenges with pattern recognition give them trouble relating past experiences to new situations.
Traits like these can make it hard to make friends, experts say. That tracks with the Walzes’ experience.
“Gus preferred video games and spending more time by himself,” his parents told People.
Comedian Chris Rock said that when he learned as an adult that he had NVLD, it explained a lot of things from his past.
Although he’s great with words, “I kind of have a hard time with nonverbal cues with people. I always have,” Rock said in a 2021 interview with Extra. “They say 70% of communication is nonverbal. So my relationships, even with my family or women I dated or whatever, there was always something a little off, and I couldn’t put my finger on it.”
The causes of NVLD are not clear. Although the deficits associated with the condition involve processes that occur in the right hemisphere of the brain, studies sponsored by the NVLD Project that compared brain scans of people with and without the disorder found differences in both hemispheres.
Regardless, the condition does not affect intelligence, and people can learn strategies to compensate for their shortcomings.
Successful interventions can include practice taking a problem and breaking it up into manageable pieces, or looking for patterns in complicated texts. As their skills improve, they develop a library of “scripts” that can help them in new situations, according to the Child Mind Institute. If they don’t have a suitable script on hand, they’ll have experience with creating a new one.
The same approach may help people with NVLD get better at navigating social situations as well, experts say.
It seems the Walzes have taken this advice to heart.
“It took us time to figure out how to make sure we did everything we could to make sure Gus would be set up for success as he was growing up,” they told People.
Being neurodivergent means Gus “is brilliant [and] hyper-aware of details that many of us pass by,” the Walzes added. “What became so immediately clear to us was that Gus’ condition is not a setback — it’s his secret power.”
Science
COVID and bird flu are rising. Here's how to keep yourself safe
![COVID and bird flu are rising. Here's how to keep yourself safe COVID and bird flu are rising. Here's how to keep yourself safe](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/a27adb1/2147483647/strip/true/crop/6720x3528+0+476/resize/1200x630!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3f%2F91%2Fb734cb9b40f0855df80a7d410029%2F1352026-me-0922-covid-vaccines-lynwood-gem-002.jpg)
With California’s COVID surge at very high levels, doctors are urging people who are experiencing respiratory symptoms to test themselves or see a medical professional who can check on their illness.
This is the worst COVID summer infection spike in California since 2022, according to wastewater data. There are a number of possible culprits for the surge. A series of punishing heat waves and smoke from devastating wildfires have kept many Californians indoors, where the disease can more easily spread. Most adults are also well removed from their last brush with the coronavirus, or their last vaccine dose — meaning they’re more vulnerable to infection.
But changes in the virus have also widened the scope of the surge.
Of particular concern is the rise of a hyperinfectious subvariant known as KP.3.1.1, which is so contagious that even people who have eluded infection throughout the pandemic are getting sick.
“This is a very large surge that we are seeing currently. This is starting to rival, really, what we saw this past winter,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
Coronavirus levels in Los Angeles County wastewater are continuing to rise, according to the most recently available data. And viral levels in California wastewater are at “very high” levels as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Coronavirus levels in the state’s wastewater were down 3% when comparing the week that ended Aug. 10 with the prior week, a possible indication that levels are cresting — although it’s also possible that coronavirus levels will increase again. Seasonal viral levels in sewage are expected to peak at some point, but it won’t be clear until a few weeks of consistent declines are observed.
Here are some things that experts say you can do to keep yourself safe:
Get tested
Doctors are urging people dealing with respiratory illness symptoms — including healthcare providers — to seek testing.
Dr. Abraar Karan, an infectious diseases expert and epidemiologist at Stanford University, said confirmation of a COVID-19 diagnosis would help a patient get a Paxlovid prescription to help treat the illness, while confirmation of another illness, like the flu, could help a patient get a drug more targeted toward that ailment.
An initial negative test does not mean you don’t have COVID; doctors suggest testing for as long as five days after the onset of symptoms to determine whether a test turns positive.
More consistent testing at medical facilities also could help detection of unusual strains that epidemiologists want to track, such as bird flu.
Bird flu has attracted attention recently because of outbreaks in poultry and dairy cows, and there have been several recent human cases among dairy and poultry workers in the U.S., according to the CDC.
The rise of bird flu
Recent human cases of H5N1 bird flu have resulted in primarily mild symptoms, including conjunctivitis, also known as pink eye, Karan said.
But one reason doctors are closely monitoring the situation is that, in the decades in which we’ve been aware of bird flu infecting humans, some H5N1 strains have resulted in significant mortality rates.
According to the CDC, human infections with H5N1 virus, which have been reported in 23 countries since 1997, have resulted in severe pneumonia and death in about 50% of cases.
Now that we know bird flu has infected cows, and there’s cow-to-human transmission, that poses a potential problem.
“Cow udders have receptors in common with birds, and they also have receptors in common with humans, where these viruses bind,” Karan said.
“Now, with human flu season coming, you have the risk of what’s called viral reassortment, where a host can get infected with both bird flu and human flu at the same time, and those flus now start swapping genetic material,” Karan said. “This is kind of how swine flu happened [in 2009]. So this is where we’re really worried. It’s like a ticking time bomb of human flu season around the corner, and yet we still have this uncontrolled spread of bird flu in cows.”
Bird flu hasn’t resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission, nor caused a pandemic in humans, in recent times.
“But it’s one of those pathogens that’s high risk of mutating to a point of increasing transmissibility. And the pathogen has had high virulence based on historical cases. … It’s the risk of where it could go,” Karan said.
Tracking the spread
This illustrates why it can be important for patients to get tested. If a test shows that a person has the flu, subsequent screening — including genetic subtyping — could eventually determine whether it is bird flu. And that could help epidemiologists figure out how the bird flu may have spread and help doctors determine the best course of treatment.
Even if a case of bird flu results in mild symptoms, it’s important to diagnose it, Karan said, so the virus sample can be genetically analyzed and scientists can track where it jumped from animal to human, and potentially more aggressively treat the patient with antivirals.
“But imagine — that only happens if I even test that patient for flu at all,” Karan said.
Where bird flu stands in the U.S.
Since 2022, according to the CDC, there have been 14 reported human cases of H5 bird flu in the U.S., 13 of which have been reported since March 24. Of the 14, nine have been confirmed as H5N1.
Of the 14 cases of bird flu in humans, 10 followed exposure to poultry, and the remainder followed exposure to cows. All of the reported human cases have occurred in three states: Colorado, Michigan and Texas.
Nationally, there are 48 states with bird flu outbreaks in poultry and 13 with outbreaks in dairy cows.
Since 2022, more than 100 million birds in the U.S. have been reported to have been infected with bird flu, including commercial poultry, backyard or hobbyist flocks and wild aquatic birds; it’s the first detection of this type of flu virus in the U.S. since 2016.
Bird flu has been detected in wild birds in most counties of California, including all of Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area, and most of the Central Valley.
Bird flu outbreaks — those involving commercial poultry facilities or backyard poultry and hobbyist bird flocks — in California have been reported in just one county in Southern California: San Diego County. Bird flu outbreaks have occurred in a number of counties in Northern and Central California, including Sacramento, Contra Costa, Fresno, San Francisco, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Sonoma, Monterey, Placer, Merced and Marin counties.
As for bird flu infecting dairy cows, 13 states have reported outbreaks — Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina. In the last month, outbreaks infecting dairy cows have affected five states: Idaho, Colorado, Texas, South Dakota and Michigan.
In May, there was a detection of bird flu in a live bird market in San Francisco, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. State officials urged people to separate poultry from wild birds if possible.
“Because of the recent case in California poultry production and epidemiologic evidence that this strain was introduced by wild birds, we ask that California producers move their birds indoors through December 2024,” the California Department of Food and Agriculture said in June.
Protecting family and friends
The CDC earlier this year eased COVID isolation guidance, given that the health impacts of COVID-19 are lower than they once were, thanks to the availability of vaccines, anti-COVID medicines and increased population immunity.
There are fewer people being hospitalized and dying, and fewer reports of complications such as multi-inflammatory syndrome in children.
Still, doctors say it remains prudent to take common-sense steps to avoid illness and spreading the disease to others, given that COVID still causes significant health burdens that remain worse than the flu. Nationally, since the start of October, more than 49,000 people have been reported to have died of COVID; by contrast, flu has resulted in at least 25,000 fatalities over the same time period, according to federal estimates, which will be updated later this year.
While the prevalence of long COVID has been going down, long COVID can still be a risk any time someone gets COVID.
Doctors are urging everyone to get up to date on vaccinations — particularly if patients are at higher risk of severe complications from COVID-19. An updated COVID-19 vaccination formula is expected to become available in a matter of week, and the CDC is urging everyone 6 months and older to get one dose of the updated vaccine.
In California, just 37% of seniors 65 and older have received the last updated COVID-19 vaccine that first became available in September.
It’s especially important that older people get at least one updated dose. Of the patients he has seen recently who had serious COVID, UC San Francisco infectious diseases specialist Dr. Peter Chin-Hong said none of them had gotten an updated vaccine in the last year.
Avoid sick people. Some who are infected might pass off their symptoms simply as a cold or allergies when it could be the start of a COVID-19 illness.
Test if you’re sick, and test repeatedly if your first test shows up as negative.
An initial negative test doesn’t mean you don’t have COVID; doctors suggest testing for as long as five days after the onset of symptoms to check whether a test turns positive.
Consider taking a rapid COVID test once a day for three to five consecutive days after the onset of cough-and-cold symptoms, Hudson said.
Doing so can help a person take measures to later isolate themselves and limit spread of the illness to others.
Masks are much less common these days but can still be a handy tool to prevent infection. Wearing a mask on a crowded flight or in a crowded indoor venue where people nearby are coughing can help reduce the risk of infection.
The best mask is one that is well-fitted and that you find comfortable wearing. The most protective are N95 respirators, followed by KN95 respirators and KF94s. Surgical masks offer more protection than cloth masks.
Have a plan to ask for Paxlovid if you become ill. Paxlovid is an antiviral drug that, when taken by people at risk for severe COVID-19 who have mild-to-moderate illness, reduces the risk of hospitalization and death.
And if you get Paxlovid, make sure to take the full five-day course of treatment. Don’t stop taking the drug halfway through the dose.
There are also other anti-COVID medications that are available, such as remdesivir, which is given intravenously, and molnupiravir, which is given orally, like Paxlovid.
- Stay away from others while sick
The CDC recommends people stay home and away from others until at least 24 hours after their respiratory viral symptoms are getting better overall and they have not had a fever without using fever-reducing medicine such as Tylenol or Advil. Previously, the CDC suggested people with COVID isolate for at least five days and take additional precautions for a few more days.
In terms of deciding when symptoms are getting better, what’s most important is “the overall sense of feeling better and the ability to resume activities,” the CDC says. A lingering cough by itself can last beyond when someone is contagious, the CDC said.
But the CDC also advises added precautions for five additional days to avoid infecting others, such as wearing a mask, opening windows to improve air circulation, washing hands often, keeping one’s distance from others and continuing to test. It’s possible for infected people to be contagious even after they feel better.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health suggests infected people who have symptoms get a negative test result before leaving isolation. The agency also suggests those who are infected — regardless of whether they have symptoms — wear a mask around others for 10 days after they start feeling sick or, if asymptomatic, their first positive test result. However, they can remove their mask sooner if they have two sequential negative tests at least one day apart.
The agency suggests staying away from the elderly and immunocompromised people for 10 days after you start to feel sick, or, if asymptomatic, after their first positive test result.
If patients recover and then get sick again, they may have COVID rebound and need to stay home and isolate from non-infected people in their household.
Science
Algae here, alien life out there — Cal State L.A.-JPL partnership connects engineers to astrobiology
![Algae here, alien life out there — Cal State L.A.-JPL partnership connects engineers to astrobiology Algae here, alien life out there — Cal State L.A.-JPL partnership connects engineers to astrobiology](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/ceba4ec/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x4301+0+582/resize/1200x630!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F80%2F4f%2F24a786fd45fcb3ef1848f42057d1%2F1452594-sci-jpl-habitability-lab-dpm-317.jpg)
When Erika Flores applied for an internship at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in 2014, she wasn’t quite sure if her undergraduate work in environmental science fit at a place known for work much farther afield.
“I wanted to fix our planet,” Flores said recently. “I didn’t really imagine myself studying outer space.”
Aggressive and impactful reporting on climate change, the environment, health and science.
Not only did she land the internship at the La Cañada Flintridge institution’s Origins and Habitability Laboratory, but her contribution there also launched an ongoing partnership between the civil engineering department at Cal State Los Angeles and a lab dedicated to understanding how life begins.
“I did not see myself in an astrobiology lab,” Flores said from her office at the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts, where she has worked since 2023 as an engineering associate.
But as it turns out, understanding how microorganisms came to be in Earth’s water is valuable knowledge to those tasked with cleansing that supply today, her mentor at JPL said.
“There’s a lot of overlap between wastewater and astrobiology,” said Laurie Barge, a JPL scientist who co-leads the Origins and Habitability Laboratory with research scientist Jessica Weber. “Sounds weird, but it’s true.”
![Laurie Barge, a JPL scientist, gestures while speaking to students in a lab setting.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/d9856d1/2147483647/strip/true/crop/7741x5163+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fdf%2F17%2F5463d9f04d858bec61af4ed17bac%2F1452594-sci-jpl-habitability-lab-dpm-332.jpg)
Laurie Barge, a JPL scientist, speaks to interns inside the Origins and Habitability Laboratory at JPL.
(Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)
This symmetry between the biology of our home planet and more distant worlds has led to a partnership between Barge and Weber’s lab and that of Flores’ former advisor Arezoo Khodayari, an associate professor of civil engineering at Cal State L.A.
After nearly a decade of collaboration, Barge and Khodayari recently received a grant from NASA that will cover up to six internships in the lab for Khodayari’s students over the next two years.
The award is one of 11 that NASA’s Science Mission Directorate made to universities that have not traditionally been part of the pipeline that brings new scientists to the space agency.
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![Women in lab coats look at an experiment in a laboratory at JPL. well / Los Angeles Times)](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/c42ce9d/2147483647/strip/true/crop/7978x5319+0+1/resize/1200x800!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F38%2Fd6%2F6d038afe4d73a9586848e86f064c%2F1452594-sci-jpl-habitability-lab-dpm-482.jpg)
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1. Cal State L.A. students Julia Chavez, left, and Cathy Trejo conduct an experiment that simulates oceans on early Earth and possibly other planets. (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)
“We are intentionally increasing equitable access to NASA for the best and brightest talents in our nation,” said Shahra Lambert, NASA senior advisor for engagement, in a statement.
The two scientists connected through Flores who, with Barge’s encouragement, decided to go for a master’s degree at Cal State L.A. during her Origins and Habitability Laboratory internship.
While Khodayari’s research in Cal State L.A.’s Environmental Sustainability and Pollution Control lab focuses on managing contaminants here on Earth, she and Barge immediately saw parallels with the Origins and Habitability lab’s exploration of the conditions that could give rise to life across the universe.
“The fate of these chemicals in an aqueous environment is relevant for both fields,” Khodayari said. “All of these different projects have chemistry in common.”
After the success of Flores’ internship, the two scientists started looking for ways to introduce planetary science to students who might not have considered it as part of their training, and lacked access to the tools necessary for sophisticated research.
![A Cal State L.A. associate professor speaks with students in a lab setting.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/7d94452/2147483647/strip/true/crop/7045x4699+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4e%2Fe8%2F67ca3e7e402b9bd470cfd225efae%2F1452594-sci-jpl-habitability-lab-dpm-398.jpg)
Arezoo Khodayari of Cal State L.A. has collaborated with JPL for years to bring interns to the Southern California NASA center.
(Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)
Eduardo Martinez was studying for a master’s in civil engineering in 2018 when Khodayari called him into her office and asked if he’d be interested in working for JPL.
“I was kind of taken aback a little bit,” recalled Martinez, who was born in Mexico and grew up in Los Angeles. “I was like — ‘JPL? Like, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory?’ ”
He was hooked immediately. As a civil engineering student, Martinez had been interested in how phosphorus and nitrogen affect water quality, leading to algal blooms and low oxygen levels when discharged in high quantities into freshwater. During the internship, he was a lead author on a research paper with Barge, Khodayari and others on how nitrates react with iron compounds in aqueous environments.
His work at the Origins and Habitability lab showed him that the same elements also play a crucial role in forming and sustaining life, and thus are a key point of interest for NASA astrobiologists. “I had not made that link before, and it was just fascinating to see,” Martinez said.
The experience inspired him to pursue a doctorate in geoscience at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. His research there focuses on how certain isotope compositions in clay minerals could indicate past life in samples brought back from Mars.
![Julia Chavez and Cathy Trejo high-five in a room.](https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/45318de/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8192x5464+0+0/resize/2000x1334!/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fbf%2F36%2F0b3dc0274e76a47f3aef0dedc8cc%2F1452594-sci-jpl-habitability-lab-dpm-272.jpg)
Julia Chavez and Cathy Trejo high-five at JPL. They are two of several students from Cal State L.A. who are interning at JPL’s Origins and Habitability Laboratory.
(Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)
Since Flores’ initial crossover from environmental science to space, five Cal State L.A. students have done internships at the JPL lab. The NASA grant will speed up that pipeline, introducing more students to research opportunities that may not otherwise have crossed their paths.
This summer, interns Julia Chavez and Cathy Trejo donned goggles and white lab coats to inject fluids into an iron chloride solution. The experiment replicates the reaction between seawater and the stuff that comes up through hydrothermal vents — an energy source for life on Earth, and a possible mechanism by which organisms first developed here.
“Five or six years ago, I didn’t really envision myself in research,” said Chavez, who completed her master’s degree this year. “Being here, I couldn’t imagine a different path.”
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