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Dementia May Not Always Be the Threat It Is Now. Here’s Why.

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Dementia May Not Always Be the Threat It Is Now. Here’s Why.

Joan Presky worries about dementia. Her mother lived with Alzheimer’s disease for 14 years, the last seven in a memory-care residence, and her maternal grandfather developed dementia, too.

“I’m 100 percent convinced that this is in my future,” said Ms. Presky, 70, a retired attorney in Thornton, Colo.

Last year, she spent almost a full day with a neuropsychologist, undergoing an extensive evaluation. The results indicated that her short-term memory was fine — which she found “shocking and comforting” — and that she tested average or above in every cognitive category but one.

She’s not reassured. “I saw what Alzheimer’s was like,” she said of her mother’s long decline. “The memory of what she went through is profound for me.”

The prospect of dementia, which encompasses Alzheimer’s disease and a number of other cognitive disorders, so frightens Americans that a recent study projecting steep increases in cases over the next three decades drew enormous public attention.

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The researchers’ findings, published in January in Nature Medicine, even showed up as a joke on the Weekend Update segment of “Saturday Night Live.”

“Dementia is a devastating condition, and it’s very much related to the oldest ages,” said Dr. Josef Coresh, director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone Health and the senior author of the study. “The globe is getting older.”

Now the findings are being challenged by other dementia researchers who say that while increases are coming, they will be far smaller than Dr. Coresh and his co-authors predicted.

Using data from about 15,000 Americans over age 55, collected at four research clinics around the country from 1987 through 2020, Dr. Coresh’s team projected a lifetime dementia risk much higher than previous studies had: 42 percent, though most of that risk didn’t emerge until after age 85.

The higher lifetime number probably reflected the study’s reliance on a more diverse sample than earlier researchers had used, Dr. Coresh said, and more dementia cases identified through in-depth questionnaires, regular phone calls, medical records and death certificates.

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The researchers applied their risk calculations to the U.S. population and estimated that the number of people who would develop dementia each year would roughly double, to about a million by 2060, from 514,000 in 2020.

Eric Stallard, an actuary and co-director of the Biodemography of Aging Research Unit at Duke University, read the study and thought the team “seemed very competent at their analysis” of individual risk.

But when it came to the projection that cases would double, which assumed that the incidence of dementia would remain stable over the next 40 years, “I don’t believe it,” Mr. Stallard said.

“The notion that the number of people with dementia will double over the next 25, 30 or 35 years due to the aging of baby boomers is widespread, it’s pervasive — and it’s wrong,” he added.

He and two other Duke researchers recently published a commentary in JAMA pointing out that the age-specific prevalence of dementia in this country had steadily declined for 40 years.

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“If your risks are lower than your parents’ risks and this trend continues, you won’t see the doubling or tripling of dementia that’s been projected,” said Dr. Murali Doraiswamy, director of the Neurocognitive Disorders Program at Duke and a co-author of the JAMA article.

To be clear, experts agree that the number of people with dementia will climb in coming decades, simply because the disorder rises so steeply with age and the number of older adults in the United States will increase.

But Mr. Stallard estimates that the increase will be more like 10 to 25 percent by 2050. “It will still be a significant challenge for the health system in the U.S.,” he said.

The Duke group relied on its own long-term study of people over age 65, with more than 21,000 respondents in 1984 and about 16,000 in 2004, plus later data from the national Health and Retirement Study and the National Health and Aging Trends Study.

Their analysis found that among 85- to 89-year-olds, for instance, the proportion with dementia was about 23 percent in the cohort born in 1905. In those born 10 years later, the figure had dropped to about 18 percent.

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By the time Americans born in 1935 reached their late 80s, about 11 percent had dementia; the projection for those born from 1945 to 1949 is now about 8 percent.

To Dr. Coresh, whose primary interest was in individual risk, the assumption that past declines would continue at about the current rate “would be great, but is quite an optimistic, dramatic decrease,” he said in an email.

Yet in another longitudinal study of older adults in England and China, published in Nature Aging last year, “we also found these quite marked improvements in more recently born cohorts,” said the lead author, Dr. John Beard, a medical epidemiologist at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University.

“You would expect the increase in the absolute numbers of people with dementia in the U.S. will be less than we feared,” Dr. Beard said.

What has led to the decrease in dementia, also seen in several European countries? Often cited explanations include rising education levels, reduced smoking and improved treatment for high blood pressure and high cholesterol.

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The Lancet Commission on dementia, intervention and care has developed a list of 14 modifiable risk factors, including greater use of hearing aids and reduced air pollution, that could still lead to greater declines.

Yet the reverse could also happen. If earlier and more widespread testing increases the number of dementia diagnoses, or if the definition of dementia broadens, rates will increase, Dr. Doraiswamy noted. Increasing life expectancy would have the same effect.

Obesity and diabetes, more common in recent decades, could lead to more dementia, but much-touted new drugs that reduce them could blunt that trend — if people can get them.

“None of this is inevitable,” said Dr. Gill Livingston, a psychiatrist at University College London who leads the Lancet Commission. “It depends on what we do.”

Public health policy makes a major difference, she noted, and, “The U.S. is in a time where policy is changing enormously.”

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Dementia rates might rise, for example, “if people have less access to health care, so they are less likely to get their blood pressure treated and their high cholesterol treated,” Dr. Livingston said.

Slashed Medicaid coverage could lead to that result. So could a rollback of environmental policies, “if air pollution increases because of fossil fuels,” she added.

Already, dementia afflicts some American populations far more than others, researchers point out. Older women and Black people face greater risk, along with those who carry the APOE4 gene associated with Alzheimer’s disease.

Health disparities could mean that “affluent people will see lower rates of dementia” because of the new diabetes and obesity drugs, Dr. Doraiswamy said. “People who can’t afford them and whose conditions are not well-managed will see rates go up.”

The debate about how many older adults will develop dementia in coming decades, and about how individuals, families, government and the health care system should respond, will likely continue.

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So will Ms. Presky’s fears.

For now, she enrolls in lifelong learning classes, takes walks and yoga classes despite orthopedic problems, listens to podcasts and reads a lot of history and fiction. She and her husband take in theater in New York and Phish concerts on the West Coast and will soon be heading to London and Paris.

Still, her advance directive contains many provisions about dementia. “I remain pessimistic,” she said, noting that her mother was diagnosed at 77. “I have seven more years before I meet her fate.”

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1,200% jump in kratom-related calls to poison control centers in last decade, analysis shows

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1,200% jump in kratom-related calls to poison control centers in last decade, analysis shows

Over the last decade, poison control centers around the country have received tens of thousands of calls from consumers of kratom products reporting adverse and life-threatening health effects, with researchers saying reports in 2025 reached a new level. California’s poison center is reporting similar findings.

Last month, researchers analyzed information from the National Poison Data System and found that between 2015 and 2025, poison control centers across the nation received 14,449 calls related to kratom. More than 23% of those calls, or 3,434, were made last year, according to a published report in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That represents a more than 1,200% increase from 2015, when only 258 calls were reported.

Officers gather illegally grown kratom plants in 2019 in Phang Nha province, Thailand. The country decriminalized the possession and sale of kratom in 2021.

(Associated Press)

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Kratom is derived from the leaves of Mitragyna speciosa, a tree native to Southeast Asia. It has a long history of being used for chronic pain or to boost energy and in the U.S., research points to Americans also using it to alleviate anxiety. In low doses, kratom appears to act as a stimulant but in high doses, it can have effects more like opioids.

But in the last few years, a synthetic form of kratom refined for its psychoactive compound, 7-hydroxymitragynine or 7-OH, has entered the market that is highly concentrated and not clearly labeled, leading to confusion and problems for consumers. The synthetic form gaining momentum in the market is sparking concern among public health officials because of its ability to bind to opioid receptors in the body, causing it to have a higher potential for abuse.

Los Angeles County leaders, meanwhile, have grappled with differentiating the two and regulating the products that come in the form of powder, capsules and drinks and have been linked to six county deaths. Sales of kratom and 7-OH products were banned in the county in November.

In reviewing the data, which did not differentiate whether callers had consumed natural or synthetic kratom, researchers set out to understand the effect of what they believe is a “rapidly evolving kratom market,” and highlight the role poison centers can play as an early warning surveillance system to detect new trends.

National Poison Data System findings

The data showed that over the last 10 years, 62% of the kratom-related calls to poison control centers were from people who said they consumed the drug by itself, and the other 38% were from people who combined it with another substance or substances.

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Those who consumed kratom with another substance combined it most frequently with one or a combination of the following: alcohol, opioids, benzodiazepines (like Xanax or Valium), cannabis and cannabinoids, stimulants and antidepressants.

The data also broke down hospitalizations related to kratom — adults who took it alone or in combination and experienced “adverse” health effects; and adults who took it alone or in combination and experienced more serious “moderate” or “major” health effects, including death.

Kratom powder products are displayed at a smoke shop.

Kratom powder products are displayed in a smoke shop in Los Angeles in 2024.

(Michael Blackshire/Los Angeles Times)

Hospitalizations for adults who had consumed kratom alone and experienced adverse effects increased from 43 in 2015 to 538 in 2025. For those who took it in combination and were hospitalized with an adverse health effect, the total jumped from 40 in 2015 to 549 last year.

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The numbers were even higher for hospitalizations where the health effects were more serious or fatal.

In 2015, there were 76 reports of people being hospitalized after taking kratom alone and experiencing a serious health effect or dying. By last year, that number had climbed to 919. The reports of serious health effects, including death, for those who took kratom in combination with another substance grew from 51 in 2015 to 725 last year.

The research does not break down kratom-related deaths by year but states that there were 233 deaths over the 10-year study period, or just over 3% of all 7,287 serious medical outcomes. Of the total number of kratom-related deaths, 184 cases involved the consumption of multiple substances.

What California’s poison control system found in its state data

The California Poison Control System is currently reviewing its data concerning kratom-related calls but an initial analysis shows parallels to the national report, said Rais Vohra, medical director of the state poison control system.

“We have about 10% of the national population and about 10% of the national call volume with poison control,” Vohra said. “And so, not surprisingly, we were able to identify over 900 cases of calls related to kratom in that same period.”

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Local researchers are still deciphering the state data but they too have found that kratom-related calls are climbing.

“It’s accelerating, which I think is one of the main points of the [published] report,” Vohra said.

A majority of calls received by poison control come from healthcare facilities where “presumably someone has a problem … severe enough to warrant calling 911 or going to the emergency room, and that’s when our agency gets involved,” Vohra said.

Kait Brown, clinical managing director for America’s Poison Control Centers, said the fact that kratom and 7-OH are federally unregulated products sold online, in gas stations and smoke shops gives people across the country easy access.

And while kratom enthusiasts maintain that it has been used in its natural form for hundreds of years, “there are new formulations that are a little bit different than how people have used it, at least historically,” said William Eggleston, a pharmacist and the assistant clinical director of the Upstate New York Poison Center in Syracuse.

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People are no longer consuming kratom only as a powder or capsule but also in the form of an energy shot or extract; it’s similar for synthetic, more concentrated 7-OH products.

When regional poison centers compare their findings and experiences with the analysis of calls in the National Poison Data System, Eggleston said, “undeniably there is an increase in calls related to kratom.”

“But when you put it in the bigger perspective of all the calls … this is still a very small percentage of what we’re dealing with on a day to day basis,” he said.

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Video: NASA Astronauts Discuss Surprise Moment on Artemis II Mission

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Video: NASA Astronauts Discuss Surprise Moment on Artemis II Mission

new video loaded: NASA Astronauts Discuss Surprise Moment on Artemis II Mission

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NASA Astronauts Discuss Surprise Moment on Artemis II Mission

During a NASA news conference on Thursday, the Artemis II commander Reid Wiseman recapped a startling moment from the mission: A smoke detector went off in the spacecraft tens of thousands of miles away from Earth.

We had a few cautions and warnings that came up from time to time. And those — always — they always get your attention. We had a smoke detector go off on the next to last day. I mean, you want to get somebody’s attention really quick, make the fire alarm go off in your spacecraft when you’re still about 80,000 miles from home. And that starts off an automated sequence of shutting down the ventilation and the power system. And that was — it was tense. It wasn’t scary, but it was tense for a few minutes until we got things reconfigured.

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During a NASA news conference on Thursday, the Artemis II commander Reid Wiseman recapped a startling moment from the mission: A smoke detector went off in the spacecraft tens of thousands of miles away from Earth.

April 16, 2026

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California sees the most measles cases in 7 years as disease resurges nationwide

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California sees the most measles cases in 7 years as disease resurges nationwide

California in 2026 has already seen its highest number of annual measles cases in seven years, health officials said, amid an ongoing resurgence of a notoriously infectious disease once considered effectively eliminated in the United States.

The looming new domestic beachhead for the disease comes as vaccination rates have tumbled nationwide in recent years — in some areas falling well below the herd immunity threshold experts say is necessary to keep it from spreading.

“There are pockets of vulnerability, like in communities, that can really lead to outbreaks going wild,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert.

So far this year, there have been at least 40 confirmed measles cases in California. That’s well above the 25 recorded in all of 2025, according to Dr. Eric Sergienko, chief of the state Department of Public Health’s communicable disease control division. It’s also already the state’s highest single-year tally since 2019, when there were 73.

The latest measles case was announced Wednesday: an infant from San Francisco who was too young to be vaccinated and picked up the virus during an international trip. It was San Francisco’s first measles case since 2019. (The infant’s family was all vaccinated.)

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The spread of the highly infectious virus is largely occurring among unvaccinated individuals, particularly children and younger adults, state health data show. Of the first 39 measles cases reported this year in California, 95% were among people who were unvaccinated or had an unknown immunization status, and 85% were in individuals under age 20, Sergienko said in a briefing to health professionals this week.

The measles vaccine — usually referred to as MMR, as it also conveys protection against two other once-common childhood illnesses, mumps and rubella — is considered to be 97% effective at preventing illness after getting the recommended two doses, and 93% effective after a single shot. There is a small chance that vaccinated people can still get measles, though they tend to have milder illness, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It was only a generation ago, in 2000, when the U.S. declared that ongoing transmission of measles had been eliminated — a public health success credited to a robust immunization effort following the disease’s resurgence from 1989 to 1991.

But some experts now fear the U.S. is in danger of allowing the virus to regain a foothold. Nationwide, there have been at least 1,714 confirmed measles cases so far this year, nearing the total of 2,287 reported in all of 2025, according to the CDC.

The number of cases recorded in 2025 was the highest single-year tally since 1991. An overwhelming majority of them, 90%, were linked to an outbreak.

Out of every 10,000 people who get measles, 500 children are statistically likely to get pneumonia, and up to 30 of them could die, Sergienko said.

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Three measles deaths were reported nationally last year — two among unvaccinated school-age children in Texas and one in an unvaccinated adult in New Mexico.

Los Angeles County in September reported the death of a school-age child from a complication of measles. The child had been infected as an infant when they were too young to be vaccinated, and years later developed subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, or SSPE, a fatal disease that targets the brain.

Children typically receive their first MMR dose when they are 12 to 15 months old and the second when they are 4 to 6 years old, according to the CDC.

Babies age 6 months to 11 months and traveling internationally should get a dose, but should still get the standard two-dose series after their first birthday, the CDC says.

There have been three outbreaks fueling the spread of measles in California so far this year: one in Riverside County, involving three people infected in a single family; one in Shasta County, infecting nine people among a church group; and an ongoing outbreak in Sacramento County and neighboring Placer County, Sergienko said.

The outbreak in the Sacramento Valley was first identified in February, when officials reported that an unvaccinated toddler contracted measles after returning from South Carolina — where an outbreak centered in Spartanburg County has been linked to about 1,000 cases, health officials said. It is considered one of the largest outbreaks in the U.S. in more than 30 years.

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Measles was then found in three siblings from a different household in Placer County who had contact with the traveling toddler.

Then, in early March, another measles case was identified in a child from the same community who attended what authorities described as an educational enrichment program, potentially exposing as many as 130 children to the virus, California health officials said. The organizers of the educational program agreed to close their facility temporarily.

L.A. County has reported four measles cases this year so far — all among those who recently traveled internationally. The most recent case involved someone aboard a Singapore Airlines flight that landed at Los Angeles International Airport on Feb. 9.

Orange County has reported a measles case in a young adult who potentially exposed people at a gym and urgent care center in Ladera Ranch, as well as a case in a toddler. They also reported two measles cases among travelers to Disneyland, one on Jan. 22 and the other on Jan. 28.

San Bernardino County reported a measles case in an unvaccinated child traveling from another state. San Diego County said an unvaccinated traveler who lives out of state potentially exposed people while visiting the emergency room of a local hospital in mid-March.

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In the Bay Area, health officials reported a case of measles in a vaccinated Santa Clara County resident who recently returned from international travel, and potentially exposed people at a restaurant in Burlingame on Feb. 23 and Feb. 24.

Measles is one of the most contagious viruses known to humans. It can spread through coughing and sneezing, and remain infectious in the air up to two hours after an infected person has left a room. If infected, an individual will typically begin to show measles symptoms seven to 21 days after exposure.

Officials expect the Sacramento Valley measles outbreak to continue for at least the next few weeks.

“With four new cases coming up over the last week, we anticipate that this outbreak will be going on for at least another incubation period, for 21 days or so, as we look at potentially some undocumented transmission occurring within the impacted community,” Sergienko said Tuesday.

Nationally, measles vaccination rates among kindergartners have been declining. During the 2019-20 school year, 95.2% of children that age were fully vaccinated, but that slipped to 92.5% for the 2024-25 school year — below the herd-immunity target of 95%, according to the CDC.

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The measles vaccination rate for California kindergartners was 96.1% in 2024-25, among the highest in the nation. Some of the states that have undergone big breakouts have rates for kindergartners below the 95% goal — Texas was 93.2%; New Mexico, 94.8%; and South Carolina, 91.2%.

California has sweeping vaccination requirements as a condition of enrollment in public and private schools, as well as daycare centers, with exceptions only for medical reasons. Parents who opt not to vaccinate due to their beliefs can homeschool their children and enroll them in independent study, provided they do not “receive classroom-based instruction.”

But, as a Times story last year noted, California’s laws don’t define what “classroom-based instruction” means, including whether students need to be vaccinated if they attend some in-person classes or school-sanctioned activities like field trips, soccer practice or prom. Opponents of school vaccination requirements are also working to pressure states like California to weaken them.

Anti-vaccine advocates have been emboldened in recent years with the rise of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine skeptic.

In March 2025, Kennedy issued a statement that noted vaccines’ effectiveness in preventing measles’ spread, but stopped short of outright recommending that parents vaccinate their children.

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Yet as the year went on, Kennedy and the agencies he leads upended the nation’s vaccine delivery system, while publicly sharing misleading and inaccurate information about immunizations.

As recent outbreaks show, measles can spread quickly if it gets into pockets of unimmunized communities, and babies too young to be vaccinated can be at risk for serious illness and death.

One such example was the Disneyland measles outbreak of December 2014 to April 2015, which resulted in 131 cases among Californians, and spread to people in six other states, as well as Canada and Mexico. Among the measles cases in California, at least 12 of those infected were infants too young to be vaccinated.

Measles symptoms don’t usually start with the telltale rash, Sergienko said. The disease begins with a mild-to-moderate fever, then a cough, runny nose and red, watery eyes. It takes two or three days later before tiny white lesions, known as Koplik spots, appear inside the mouth, and an additional fever may spike, with temperatures that can exceed 104 degrees.

A couple of days later, the red measles rash emerges, starting at the hairline and moving downward, Sergienko said.

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Officials urge people who suspect they or their child have measles call their healthcare provider. Healthcare providers are advised to evaluate a suspected measles patient in a way that doesn’t expose other patients to the virus.

Health officials urged people to get up to date on the measles vaccine if they haven’t done so.

“We all need to work together to share the medical evidence, benefits, and safety of vaccines to provide families the information they need to protect children and our communities,” Dr. Erica Pan, director of the California Department of Public Health, said.

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