Science
Artificial Intelligence Gives Weather Forecasters a New Edge
The National Hurricane Center (American) 5-day, ECMWF (European), and GraphCast models from July 1, 2024 at 8 p.m. Eastern. All times on the map are Eastern.
By William B. Davis
In early July, as Hurricane Beryl churned through the Caribbean, a top European weather agency predicted a range of final landfalls, warning that that Mexico was most likely. The alert was based on global observations by planes, buoys and spacecraft, which room-size supercomputers then turned into forecasts.
That same day, experts running artificial intelligence software on a much smaller computer predicted landfall in Texas. The forecast drew on nothing more than what the machine had previously learned about the planet’s atmosphere.
Four days later, on July 8, Hurricane Beryl slammed into Texas with deadly force, flooding roads, killing at least 36 people and knocking out power for millions of residents. In Houston, the violent winds sent trees slamming into homes, crushing at least two of the victims to death.
A composite satellite image of Hurricane Beryl approaching the Texas coast on July 8.
NOAA, via European Press Agency, via Shutterstock
The Texas prediction offers a glimpse into the emerging world of A.I. weather forecasting, in which a growing number of smart machines are anticipating future global weather patterns with new speed and accuracy. In this case, the experimental program was GraphCast, created in London by DeepMind, a Google company. It does in minutes and seconds what once took hours.
“This is a really exciting step,” said Matthew Chantry, an A.I. specialist at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the agency that got upstaged on its Beryl forecast. On average, he added, GraphCast and its smart cousins can outperform his agency in predicting hurricane paths.
In general, superfast A.I. can shine at spotting dangers to come, said Christopher S. Bretherton, an emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington. For treacherous heats, winds and downpours, he said, the usual warnings will be “more up-to-date than right now,” saving untold lives.
Rapid A.I. weather forecasts will also aid scientific discovery, said Amy McGovern, a professor of meteorology and computer science at the University of Oklahoma who directs an A.I. weather institute. She said weather sleuths now use A.I. to create thousands of subtle forecast variations that let them find unexpected factors that can drive such extreme events as tornadoes.
“It’s letting us look for fundamental processes,” Dr. McGovern said. “It’s a valuable tool to discover new things.”
Importantly, the A.I. models can run on desktop computers, making the technology much easier to adopt than the room-size supercomputers that now rule the world of global forecasting.
Abandoned vehicles under an overpass in Sugar Land, Texas, on July 8.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
“It’s a turning point,” said Maria Molina, a research meteorologist at the University of Maryland who studies A.I. programs for extreme-event prediction. “You don’t need a supercomputer to generate a forecast. You can do it on your laptop, which makes the science more accessible.”
People depend on accurate weather forecasts to make decisions about such things as how to dress, where to travel and whether to flee a violent storm.
Even so, reliable weather forecasts turn out to be extraordinarily hard to achieve. The trouble is complexity. Astronomers can predict the paths of the solar system’s planets for centuries to come because a single factor dominates their movements — the sun and its immense gravitational pull.
In contrast, the weather patterns on Earth arise from a riot of factors. The tilts, the spins, the wobbles and the day-night cycles of the planet turn the atmosphere into turbulent whorls of winds, rains, clouds, temperatures and air pressures. Worse, the atmosphere is inherently chaotic. On its own, with no external stimulus, a particular zone can go quickly from stable to capricious.
As a result, weather forecasts can fail after a few days, and sometimes after a few hours. The errors grow in step with the length of the prediction — which today can extend for 10 days, up from three days a few decades ago. The slow improvements stem from upgrades to the global observations as well as the supercomputers that make the predictions.
Not that supercomputing work has grown easy. The preparations take skill and toil. Modelers build a virtual planet crisscrossed by millions of data voids and fill the empty spaces with current weather observations.
Dr. Bretherton of the University of Washington called these inputs crucial and somewhat improvisational. “You have to blend data from many sources into a guess at what the atmosphere is doing right now,” he said.
The knotty equations of fluid mechanics then turn the blended observations into predictions. Despite the enormous power of supercomputers, the number crunching can take an hour or more. And of course, as the weather changes, the forecasts must be updated.
The A.I. approach is radically different. Instead of relying on current readings and millions of calculations, an A.I. agent draws on what it has learned about the cause-and-effect relationships that govern the planet’s weather.
In general, the advance derives from the ongoing revolution in machine learning — the branch of A.I. that mimics how humans learn. The method works with great success because A.I. excels at pattern recognition. It can rapidly sort through mountains of information and spot intricacies that humans cannot discern. Doing so has led to breakthroughs in speech recognition, drug discovery, computer vision and cancer detection.
In weather forecasting, A.I. learns about atmospheric forces by scanning repositories of real-world observations. It then identifies the subtle patterns and uses that knowledge to predict the weather, doing so with remarkable speed and accuracy.
Recently, the DeepMind team that built GraphCast won Britain’s top engineering prize, presented by the Royal Academy of Engineering. Sir Richard Friend, a physicist at Cambridge University who led the judging panel, praised the team for what he called “a revolutionary advance.”
In an interview, Rémi Lam, GraphCast’s lead scientist, said his team had trained the A.I. program on four decades of global weather observations compiled by the European forecasting center. “It learns directly from historical data,” he said. In seconds, he added, GraphCast can produce a 10-day forecast that would take a supercomputer more than an hour.
Dr. Lam said GraphCast ran best and fastest on computers designed for A.I., but could also work on desktops and even laptops, though more slowly.
In a series of tests, Dr. Lam reported, GraphCast outperformed the best forecasting model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts more than 90 percent of the time. “If you know where a cyclone is going, that’s quite important,” he added. “It’s important for saving lives.”
A damaged home in Freeport, Texas, in the hurricane’s aftermath.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Replying to a question, Dr. Lam said he and his team were computer scientists, not cyclone experts, and had not evaluated how GraphCast’s predictions for Hurricane Beryl compared to other forecasts in precision.
But DeepMind, he added, did conduct a study of Hurricane Lee, an Atlantic storm that in September was seen as possibly threatening New England or, farther east, Canada. Dr. Lam said the study found that GraphCast locked in on landfall in Nova Scotia three days before the supercomputers reached the same conclusion.
Impressed by such accomplishments, the European center recently embraced GraphCast as well as A.I. forecasting programs made by Nvidia, Huawei and Fudan University in China. On its website, it now displays global maps of its A.I. testing, including the range of path forecasts that the smart machines made for Hurricane Beryl on July 4.
The track predicted by DeepMind’s GraphCast, labeled DMGC on the July 4 map, shows Beryl making landfall in the region of Corpus Christi, Texas, not far from where the hurricane actually hit.
Dr. Chantry of the European center said the institution saw the experimental technology as becoming a regular part of global weather forecasting, including for cyclones. A new team, he added, is now building on “the great work” of the experimentalists to create an operational A.I. system for the agency.
Its adoption, Dr. Chantry said, could happen soon. He added, however, that the A.I. technology as a regular tool might coexist with the center’s legacy forecasting system.
Dr. Bretherton, now a team leader at the Allen Institute for A.I. (established by Paul G. Allen, one of the founders of Microsoft), said the European center was considered the world’s top weather agency because comparative tests have regularly shown its forecasts to exceed all others in accuracy. As a result, he added, its interest in A.I. has the world of meteorologists “looking at this and saying, ‘Hey, we’ve got to match this.’”
Weather experts say the A.I. systems are likely to complement the supercomputer approach because each method has its own particular strengths.
“All models are wrong to some extent,” Dr. Molina of the University of Maryland said. The A.I. machines, she added, “might get the hurricane track right but what about rain, maximum winds and storm surge? There’re so many diverse impacts” that need to be forecast reliably and assessed carefully.
Even so, Dr. Molina noted that A.I. scientists were rushing to post papers that demonstrate new forecasting skills. “The revolution is continuing,” she said. “It’s wild.”
Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, agreed on the need for multiple tools. He called A.I. “evolutionary rather than revolutionary” and predicted that humans and supercomputers would continue to play major roles.
“Having a human at the table to apply situational awareness is one of the reasons we have such good accuracy,” he said.
Mr. Rhome added that the hurricane center had used aspects of artificial intelligence in its forecasts for more than a decade, and that the agency would evaluate and possibly draw on the brainy new programs.
“With A.I. coming on so quickly, many people see the human role as diminishing,” Mr. Rhome added. “But our forecasters are making big contributions. There’s still very much a strong human role.”
Sources and notes
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) | Notes: The “actual path” of Beryl uses the NHC’s preliminary best track data.
Science
Video: ‘Very Successful Day’: NASA Completes Artemis II Launchpad Test
new video loaded: ‘Very Successful Day’: NASA Completes Artemis II Launchpad Test
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‘Very Successful Day’: NASA Completes Artemis II Launchpad Test
NASA successfully completed a rehearsal to launch the Artemis II rocket on Thursday. The mission would send astronauts around the Moon’s orbit for the first time in more than 50 years.
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“Very successful day. I’m very proud of this team and all that they accomplished to get us to yesterday, and then to go execute with such precision.” “Following that successful wet dress yesterday, we’re now targeting March 6 as our earliest launch attempt. I am going to caveat that — I want to be open, transparent with all of you, that there is still pending work.”
By Jorge Mitssunaga
February 20, 2026
Science
Fourth measles case confirmed in L.A. County; person visited LAX, restaurants while infectious
A fourth measles case has been confirmed in Los Angeles County, prompting renewed calls from health officials for residents to ensure they are protected against the highly contagious virus.
The infected individual flew from Singapore to Los Angeles International Airport on Feb. 9 aboard Singapore Airlines Flight 38. The plane landed at about 7 p.m. following a 14-hour journey, according to the L.A. County Department of Public Health.
Over the following days, the individual visited a few San Gabriel Valley fast food restaurants, potentially exposing others to the measles virus.
“As measles cases increase, it is important that residents take steps to make sure they are fully protected,” L.A. County Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis said in a statement. “The [measles-mumps-rubella] vaccine is the safest and most reliable way to prevent measles and protect yourself, your family, and your community.”
The health department did not respond to questions from The Times regarding the sex or age of the infected individual, who was described in a statement as “a resident who recently traveled internationally.”
After arriving at and leaving the Tom Bradley International Terminal, the individual visited restaurants and convenience stores throughout Whittier and Montebello.
The individual ate at a Burger King in Montebello, 1212 West Beverly Blvd., on Feb. 10 between 5:30 and 7 p.m. The next day, the person dined at Taqueria El Atacor, 11156 1/2 Whittier Blvd. in Whittier, between 3 and 5 p.m.
The final two stops in Montebello were at Domino’s Pizza, 803 West Whittier Blvd., between 4 p.m. and 5:15 p.m. on Feb. 12; and 7-Eleven, 1106 West Beverly Blvd., on Feb. 13 between 4:30 p.m. and 5:45 p.m.
Those who were in the Bradley Terminal (Terminal B) on Feb. 9 from 7:30 p.m. to 9:40 p.m., or in the eateries above during the aforementioned time windows, may have been exposed to the measles virus.
Symptoms typically develop anywhere from seven to 21 days after exposure, according to the health department.
Concerned individuals should confirm whether they have protection against the virus, either through past measles vaccinations or infections.
Those who are not immunized or are unsure of their status should monitor themselves closely for signs of infection. Common symptoms include fever, cough, runny nose or red eyes, as well as a rash.
Those with such symptoms are encouraged to stay home and avoid school, work and any gatherings. They should also call a healthcare provider immediately, but not go into a healthcare facility without informing them.
The monitoring deadline for symptoms ranges from March 2 at LAX until March 6 at 7-Eleven for individuals who visited those spaces around the same time as the infected person.
Davis said the most effective way to protect against measles is to take the MMR vaccine. Children age 1 year and older are considered fully immunized after receiving two doses.
“Measles spreads easily and can lead to serious complications, including pneumonia, brain swelling, and even death,” Davis said. “We urge everyone to confirm their immunity and get the MMR vaccine if needed, especially before traveling. Taking this simple step helps safeguard your health and strengthens protection for our entire community.”
Previous cases confirmed in L.A. County so far this year also involved individuals who had traveled internationally. One of those individuals ventured to Sherman Oaks on Jan. 24, another to Woodland Hills on Jan. 30. The first case had no identified public exposure locations in L.A. County.
Measles cases have increased in the United States as vaccination rates have fallen in recent years, allowing the highly contagious virus to spread in communities with lower vaccine coverage.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 2,280 confirmed measles cases in the U.S. last year, the highest annual total since 1991. As of Feb. 12, 910 cases had already been confirmed nationwide this year — including 15 in California.
Science
Shark attacks rose in 2025. Here’s why Californians should take note
Shark attacks returned to near-average levels in 2025 after a dip the previous year, according to the latest report from the Florida Museum of Natural History’s International Shark Attack File, published Wednesday.
Researchers recorded 65 unprovoked shark bites worldwide last year, slightly below the 10-year average of 72, but an increase from 2024. Nine of those bites were fatal, higher than the 10-year average of six fatalities.
The United States once again had the highest number of reported incidents, accounting for 38% of global unprovoked bites when assessed on a country by country basis. That said, it’s actually a decline from recent years, including 2024, when more than half of all reported bites worldwide occurred off the U.S. coast.
In 2025, Florida led all states with 11 recorded attacks. California, Hawaii, Texas and North Carolina accounted for the remaining U.S. incidents.
But California stood out in another way: It had the nation’s only unprovoked fatal shark attack in 2025.
A 55-year-old triathlete was attacked by a white shark after entering the water off the coast of Monterey Bay with members of the open-ocean swimming club she co-founded. It was the sole U.S. fatality among 25 reported shark bites nationwide.
It’s not surprising that the sole U.S. shark-related death occurred in California, said Steve Midway, an associate professor of fisheries at Louisiana State University. “In California, you tend to have year-to-year fewer attacks than other places in the U.S. and in the world,” Midway said. “But you tend to have more serious attacks, a higher proportion of fatal attacks.”
The difference lies in species and geography, Midway said. Along the East Coast, particularly in Florida, many bites involve smaller coastal sharks in shallow water, which are more likely to result in nonfatal injuries. California’s deeper and colder waters are home to larger species, such as the great white shark.
“Great whites just happen to be larger,” Midway said. “You’re less likely to be attacked, but if you are, the outcomes tend to be worse.”
Whether measured over 10, 20 or 30 years, average annual shark bite totals globally are actually very stable.
“The global patterns change only slightly from one year to the other,” said Gavin Naylor, director of the Florida Program for Shark Research.
Those annual fluctuations are influenced by a combination of shark biology, ocean conditions and the number of people in the water at any given time in any given place, researchers say.
At the same time, global shark populations remain far below historical levels. Naylor categorizes about 30% of shark species as endangered, largely due to overfishing. In some countries, including the United States and Australia, stronger protections have allowed certain shark populations to recover.
Nevertheless, the risk of being bitten by a shark remains extremely low. The report notes that drowning is a far more common cause of death worldwide — and, if it helps you sleep (or swim), the data show that you are much more likely to be killed by lightning than you are by a shark.
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