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The state of the union is anxious, but annual speech to Congress offers Biden an opportunity

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The state of the union is anxious, but annual speech to Congress offers Biden an opportunity

President Biden took workplace 13 months in the past vowing to halt the COVID-19 pandemic, enhance the economic system, soften America’s calcifying partisan division, restore religion in Washington’s management on the world stage and show that democracies can perform and ship.

As he prepares for his first State of the Union handle on Tuesday — at a second of rising nervousness throughout the nation and the world — these endeavors stay works in progress, at finest.

“No president in my reminiscence has had so many crises dumped onto him within the first yr as Biden has, and the speech must be equal to that,” stated Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic speechwriter who aided President Clinton along with his State of the Union addresses. “It’s his finest probability and his finest platform to attempt to outline the Democratic Get together and his presidency in a approach that may have traction within the [November] midterms.”

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Shrum stated Biden must strike a cautious stability within the speech. He wants to focus on his administration’s successes, Shrum stated, however can not strike a triumphalist tone.

“It’s a must to say what individuals [will] consider,” Shrum continued. “They want a really cautious framing that claims, ‘We’ve achieved some necessary issues, however there are some actually necessary challenges that matter to people who now we have to deal with.’ The important thing right here is to not sound happy.”

Though the pandemic could also be easing, main the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention to elevate most indoor masks necessities Friday, Biden can’t simply declare victory and repeat a mistake that had huge political penalties. Seven months in the past, he instructed the nation it had turned a nook within the pandemic, simply earlier than new coronavirus variants arrived and drove up COVID-19 caseloads, hospitalizations and deaths. The Delta and Omicron waves exhausted what little endurance the nation had left.

Biden can also’t simply have fun surging financial progress. Regardless of file first-year positive aspects within the job market, surging inflation has exacerbated the financial insecurity felt by tens of millions of Individuals.

And whereas he gained passage of a bipartisan infrastructure bundle in October, the president’s different main home agenda merchandise — an financial reduction bundle for working households that additionally included his administration’s foremost try to fight local weather change — has stalled. Biden has forged the plan as one of the best ways to make sure America’s relevance on the planet economic system whereas defending the setting. However these Rooseveltian ambitions have been deflated by the realities of Democrats’ razor-thin congressional majorities, upsetting his celebration’s most ardent supporters forward of November’s midterm elections.

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With the American public largely preoccupied with home issues and his approval score within the low 40s, Biden should communicate to Individuals’ financial considerations whereas providing some reassurance that issues are enhancing.

“The president will probably be ridiculed if he says the state of the union is powerful, however he doesn’t must say it’s horrible,” stated Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian at New York College. “They need honesty, however in addition they need hope.”

Dan Sena, a Democratic operative and former government director of the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee, stated that Biden “has to acknowledge the general public’s fears and considerations and the work common individuals have performed to maneuver ahead. And that may make the viewers extra receptive to listening to about what he and Democrats have performed.”

His combined success in curbing the pandemic and passing his legislative agenda has been additional sophisticated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine final week. The unprovoked assault threatens international vitality markets and the safety of Europe and the West, and has challenged Biden’s proposition that democracies are destined to conquer autocracies.

“In the event you’re specializing in the home scenario, it’s fairly laborious to do an upbeat discuss,” stated Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice College. “And for those who’re specializing in international affairs, it’s laborious to do an upbeat discuss.”

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Even so, Russia’s battle in Ukraine provides Biden a chance, in Brinkley’s view, to persuade Individuals of the significance of a united transatlantic alliance and to emphasise that he introduced allies collectively to face in opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault.

“It’s a key second to take the stage as the worldwide chief who’s going to halt authoritarianism by build up our armed forces,” Brinkley stated. “He in some way has to make individuals actually really feel like ‘the USA is again,’ that democracy is everlasting.”

With broad bipartisan help within the U.S. coalescing behind Ukraine in its combat in opposition to Russia, the battle represents Biden’s finest probability to garner robust applause from each side of the Home chamber.

Whereas not recognized for hovering oratory, Biden, like each president, will use the speech “to stipulate his imaginative and prescient and agenda,” stated John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who labored on Biden’s 2020 marketing campaign. “Joe Biden does an excellent job on massive, necessary speeches of being actually clear about what his imaginative and prescient and agenda is, and in addition what he himself believes and values,” he stated.

Biden, aides say, has been reviewing drafts of the speech for a number of weeks, squeezing prep classes into days already jam-packed with conferences about Ukraine, his nomination on Friday of the primary Black lady to the Supreme Court docket, and journey geared toward selling the advantages of the infrastructure legislation.

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Within the handle, he’s prone to make a case that Congress ought to go key components of his agenda, together with subsidies for baby care and tax breaks to incentivize cleaner vitality markets. However elevating expectations on insurance policies which might be no certain guess to turn out to be legislation carries some danger.

Sena, the Democratic operative, stated it might be extra useful to Democrats on the poll in November for Biden to emphasise what he has already achieved, particularly the reduction bundle enacted almost a yr in the past that has triggered a drop in unemployment, and passage of the bipartisan infrastructure legislation.

“Giving campaigns the power to plant their toes and lean into their accomplishments and what they’ve performed to ship in making individuals’s lives simpler, that ought to be the aim,” Sena stated.

By touting his nomination of Decide Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court docket, Biden also can lean into the historical past she would make as the primary Black feminine justice whereas reminding Democrats that holding on to the Senate and the presidency would enable him to additional affect the trajectory of the judiciary.

Jennifer Palmieri, who served as President Obama’s White Home communications director, sees Biden tying collectively the Supreme Court docket, his home agenda and his international coverage objectives beneath the broader theme of working to revive the vitality of American and international democracy — an purpose that the battle in Ukraine has forged in sharper reduction.

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“That is the hand they’ve been dealt,” stated Palmieri, asserting that aides little question “need him speaking about how he’s going to fight inflation.”

Biden ought to “lean into the necessary historic second [he’s] in,” she added. “It could be tougher to have a extra conventional, grounded coverage agenda break by means of this yr, but when I had been them, I’d say this can be a second for the president of the US to rally the nation to a really massive second and problem for the nation and the world.

“And unifying round this one combat goes to assist to construct credibility for others.”

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Tim Walz Endorses Ken Martin, a Fellow Minnesotan, to Lead the D.N.C.

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Tim Walz Endorses Ken Martin, a Fellow Minnesotan, to Lead the D.N.C.

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee for vice president, on Thursday endorsed Ken Martin to be the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Mr. Martin, the chairman of the Minnesota Democrats, is a longtime Walz ally who led the state party during Mr. Walz’s rise from Congress to the State Capitol to the national ticket. Mr. Walz is now the highest-profile Democratic official to endorse Mr. Martin to lead the party.

“In Minnesota, Ken has built a national model for how to elect Democrats in a competitive state,” Mr. Walz said in a statement provided by Mr. Martin’s campaign. “I have seen Ken’s leadership in action, and it’s exactly what we need from our next D.N.C. chair.”

Mr. Martin and Ben Wikler, the Wisconsin Democratic chairman, are the front-runners in a sprawling field of candidates. The election is set to be held on Feb. 1.

Mr. Martin has claimed endorsements from more than 100 D.N.C. members, including entire delegations from Missouri, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota and Tennessee.

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Mr. Wikler’s team has not disclosed his whip count, but Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Senate minority leader, endorsed him.

On Tuesday evening, the Association of State Democratic Chairs, which Mr. Martin founded and is the president of, declined during a virtual meeting to endorse a candidate in the D.N.C. race. An effort by Mr. Wikler’s allies for the group to make a dual endorsement of Mr. Martin and Mr. Wikler failed.

Jaime Harrison, the current D.N.C. chairman, is not seeking a second term. Others vying to replace him include Martin O’Malley, a former governor of Maryland and former mayor of Baltimore; James Skoufis, a New York state senator; Marianne Williamson, the perennial presidential candidate; and Nate Snyder, a former Homeland Security official.

The party has planned four forums for its candidates for chair, vice chair and other positions. Those are set to begin with a virtual session on Saturday.

The party’s most influential figures — President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama and Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, among others — have yet to weigh in on who should be the next D.N.C. leader.

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The next Democratic chair will have significant influence over how the party navigates President-elect Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House. Among the most imminent and high-profile tasks will be setting the rules for the 2028 presidential primary race, including which states vote first.

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FBI informant who made up Biden bribe story gets 6 years in prison

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FBI informant who made up Biden bribe story gets 6 years in prison

A former FBI informant who prosecutors say fabricated a phony story of President Biden and his son Hunter Biden accepting $10 million in bribes from the Ukrainian gas company Burisma was sentenced Wednesday to six years in federal prison. 

Alexander Smirnov, a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen, has been behind bars since he was arrested last February on charges of making false statements to the FBI. 

The indictment came in connection with special counsel David Weiss’ investigation into Hunter Biden. Weiss later indicted Hunter on tax and gun-related charges, but President Biden granted him a sweeping pardon in December before his son was to be sentenced. 

The Justice Department tacked on additional tax charges against Smirnov in November, alleging he concealed millions of dollars of income he earned between 2020 and 2022, and Smirnov pleaded guilty in December to sidestep his looming trial.  

BIDEN CLAIMS HE ‘MEANT WHAT I SAID’ WITH PROMISE NOT TO PARDON HUNTER, HOPES IT DOESN’T SET PRECEDENT

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In this courtroom sketch, defendant Alexander Smirnov speaks in federal court in Los Angeles, Feb. 26, 2024.  (William T. Robles via AP, File)

Smirnov was accused of falsely telling his FBI handler that executives from the Ukrainian energy company Burisma had paid then-Vice President Biden and his son $5 million each around 2015. Smirnov’s explosive claim in 2020 came after he expressed “bias” about Joe Biden as a presidential candidate, according to prosecutors. The indictment says investigators found Smirnov had only routine business dealings with Burisma starting in 2017 — after Biden’s term as vice president.

Prosecutors noted that Smirnov’s claim “set off a firestorm in Congress” when it resurfaced years later as part of the House impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Biden administration dismissed the House impeachment effort as a “stunt.”

Smirnov covers his face while leaving his lawyer's office

Former FBI informant Alexander Smirnov, left, walks out of his lawyer’s office in downtown Las Vegas after being released from federal custody Feb. 20, 2024.  (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP, File)

SPECIAL COUNSEL WEISS TELLS LAWMAKERS POLITICS ‘PLAYED NO PART’ IN HUNTER BIDEN PROBE

Before Smirnov’s arrest, Republicans had demanded the FBI release the unredacted form documenting the unverified allegations, though they acknowledged they couldn’t confirm if they were true.

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“In committing his crimes he betrayed the United States, a country that showed him nothing but generosity, including conferring on him the greatest honor it can bestow, citizenship,” Weiss’ team wrote in court papers. “He repaid the trust the United States placed in him to be a law-abiding naturalized citizen and, more specifically, that one of its premier law enforcement agencies placed in him to tell the truth as a confidential human source, by attempting to interfere in a Presidential election.”

The Bidens in July 2024

President Joe Biden, wearing a Team USA jacket and walking with his son Hunter Biden, heads toward Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, July 26, 2024.  (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Prosecutors agreed to pursue no more than six years against Smirnov as part of his plea deal. In court papers, the Justice Department described Smirnov as a “liar and a tax cheat” who “betrayed the United States,” adding that his bogus corruption claims against the Biden family were “among the most serious kinds of election interference one can imagine.” 

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In seeking a lighter sentence, Smirnov’s lawyers wrote that both Hunter Biden and President-elect Trump, who was charged in two since-dropped federal cases by Special Counsel Jack Smith, “have walked free and clear of any meaningful punishment.”

His lawyers had asked for a four-year prison term, arguing that their client “has learned a very grave lesson,” had no prior criminal record and was suffering from severe glaucoma in both eyes. Smirnov’s sentencing Wednesday in Los Angeles federal court concluded the final aspects of Weiss’s probe, and the special counsel is expected to submit a report to Attorney General Merrick Garland in accordance with federal regulations. Garland can decide whether to release it to the public. 

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Smirnov will get credit for the time he has served behind bars since February. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Column: Forget Reagan and Schwarzenegger. In California governor's race, boring can be beautiful

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Column: Forget Reagan and Schwarzenegger. In California governor's race, boring can be beautiful

California is about to ease into the 2026 race for governor, and if you can pick any of the current candidates from a police lineup, either you work in Sacramento, have an unhealthy obsession with state politics, or both.

That’s not to impute criminality on the part of any of those running to succeed the term-limited Gavin Newsom. (Not that a rap sheet is necessarily a detriment these days. Just look at our president-elect.)

Rather, those bidding to become California’s 41st governor aren’t exactly a collection of name-in-lights celebrities. If they formed a support group, they could call it Candidates Anonymous.

For the record, those officially running are Toni Atkins, a former Assembly speaker and Senate president pro tem; Stephen Cloobeck, a Southern California philanthropist and businessman; Eleni Kounalakis, the state’s lieutenant governor; Tony Thurmond, California’s superintendent of public instruction; Antonio Villaraigosa, a former Los Angeles mayor; and Betty Yee, a former state controller.

There is talk of others possibly entering the contest. Atty. Gen Rob Bonta is often mentioned. Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter has acknowledged eyeing the race. Vice President Kamala Harris, foremost among the possibilities, has done nothing publicly to either stoke or squelch speculation she might hop in after leaving office later this month.

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But even Harris and Porter, as well known as they are, lack anywhere near the candlepower of the two most famous bold-faced names who were elected California governor, Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Which is not necessarily a bad thing.

Or even remotely disqualifying.

In fact, contrary to California’s glitzy image, Reagan and Schwarzenegger are the odd men out in a long line of drab, largely ho-hum candidates who have been elected to the state’s top office. Think George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson and Gray Davis, whose public personas might best be rendered in broad strokes of beige, taupe and, yes, gray.

Even Jerry Brown seemed staid by the time of his return gubernatorial engagement, 36 years after he first took the oath of office. (There were no African safaris with Linda Ronstadt or quixotic tilts at the White House in his second go-round.)

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“There’s a perception that somehow Californians are entranced with movie stars and TV stars, and to some degree that’s true,” said Garry South, a Democratic strategist who twice helped elect Davis governor. “But I don’t think that view really reflects accurately the way California voters feel about politicians.”

Arnold Schwarzenegger won his first term as governor under the exceptional circumstances of a recall election.

(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

The state electorate, it turns out, is a whole lot more pragmatic than the autograph-hounding, Hollywood-worshipping stereotype would suggest.

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Gale Kaufman, another veteran Democratic strategist, has sat through countless focus groups. She said whenever voters are presented the name of someone famous — speculation about this or that celebrity running for governor being a staple of California campaigns — “they immediately take it to the next phase and say, ‘Well, what would they do as governor?’”

Which suggests voters aren’t nearly as titillated by all that sparkle and shine as the political mentioners would like to think.

Schwarzenegger, it should be said, was elected in 2003 under extraordinary circumstances, a drastically truncated campaign that lasted only a little over eight weeks. The fleeting time frame gave the movie super-duperstar a unique opportunity to leverage his fame and name recognition to replace Davis — who was recalled by voters on the same day — in a single fell swoop.

It’s also worth noting that Schwarzenegger was not entirely a political novice.

His association with the Kennedy clan, through marriage to Maria Shriver, his chairmanship of the Council on Physical Fitness and Sports under President George H.W. Bush and, especially, his sponsorship the year prior of a successful statewide ballot measure promoting after-school youth programs gave Schwarzenegger a patina of political know-how that helped legitimize his candidacy.

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Reagan, who was essentially washed up as an actor by the time he ran for governor, had an even longer and more thorough political resume than Schwarzenegger by the time he launched his 1966 campaign. Even then, Reagan was helped greatly by the restive climate stemming from the Watts riots, widespread campus unrest and voter fatigue shrouding the incumbent, Jerry Brown’s father, Edmund G. “Pat” Brown.

Campaign experience counts a great deal in California, a vast, unruly state with more than 22 million registered voters, notwithstanding the success of those two actor-turned-politicians. Other than Schwarzenegger, every candidate that followed Reagan had successfully run for statewide office at least once before being elected governor.

“It’s easy for people on the outside to think we’re celebrity-focused because of what they see from Hollywood and movies and television,” said Mark Baldassare, who has spent decades surveying voter opinions and now directs surveys for the Public Policy Institute of California. “But the reality is it’s a big state to govern, and it’s hard to win elections unless you’ve been in them before.”

No one, least of all your friendly political columnist, has any clue what will happen in 2026.

It wouldn’t be a bit surprising if California voters opted for someone without the Hollywood looks, the flash or conspicuous national ambitions of the current governor — just as the leaden Deukmejian followed the flamboyant Brown, and the buttoned-down Brown succeeded the megawatt Schwarzenegger.

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None of the candidates currently running are going to set the tabloids alight or break any box office records.

That may be one of the best things they have going for them.

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