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Six California House races that could help determine control of Congress

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Six California House races that could help determine control of Congress

Democrat Adam Gray, left, is challenging Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) to represent California’s 13th Congressional District.

(Associated Press)

In a heavily agricultural San Joaquin Valley district that encompasses all of Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties, Republican Rep. John Duarte of Modesto will once again face off against Adam Gray after narrowly vanquishing the Democrat in 2022.

Two years ago, this was the second-closest House race in the nation, with Duarte winning by just 564 votes. It will be one of the most avidly watched races in the country again this year.

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“Right now, the single most vulnerable Republican incumbent is John Duarte, in my view,” Wasserman said of the California races.

“Adam Gray came within a hair of winning the seat [in 2022]. Duarte is not yet as established a political brand as [David] Valadao,” Wasserman explained, comparing the freshman representative to his five-term GOP counterpart to the south. “And in a presidential cycle, this district ought to vote for a Democrat.”

The district had low Democratic turnout in 2022 but favored Biden by 11 points in 2020, according to data from California Target Book.

Wasserman stressed that there were still open questions about the strength of Biden’s support among Latino voters. A scenario where Trump manages to make inroads with those voters would favor Duarte, Wasserman said.

The district has a slight Latino majority, with white voters also accounting for nearly 40% of the electorate, according to data from California Target Book. It includes cities like Madera, Ceres and Merced and portions of Modesto and Turlock, as well as rural swaths of the San Joaquin Valley.

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Despite Biden’s double-digit margin of victory in 2020, Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle beat Gov. Gavin Newsom by more than eight points in the district in 2022, a partisan see-sawing that speaks to the large number of independent voters in the district as well as strong Republican turnout in the 2022 midterms.

As of late February, Democrats held a 13-percentage-point registration advantage, while no party preference voters made up more than a fifth of the electorate.

Gray significantly outraised Duarte in the most recent filing period ending on March 31, but Duarte still has more cash on hand, with $1.8 million, to Gray’s $1.2 million reserve, according to federal filings.

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'You need to stop': Gov. Noem lashes out during heated interview over book anecdote about killing dog

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'You need to stop': Gov. Noem lashes out during heated interview over book anecdote about killing dog

Gov. Kristi Noem, R-S.D., lashed out Tuesday during a contentious interview after being pressed on a series of questions about her controversial new book, “No Going Back.”

FOX Business’ Stuart Varney asked the Republican governor about a viral section of her book where she discussed shooting her ranch dog, which was detailed in an excerpt released last week.

When asked about people questioning her political future and her vice presidential aspirations, Noem snapped, saying, “I don’t think you have the facts straight.”

In her new book, officially released Tuesday, Noem described shooting her dog after it attacked a neighbor’s chickens. The story drew an immediate backlash from lawmakers, but the governor said that story was included “because a lot of politicians have run from the truth.”

NOEM ADDRESSES FEELING ‘THREATENED’ BY NIKKI HALEY, A CONTROVERSIAL DOG KILLING, TRUMP VP SPECULATION IN BOOK

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 Gov. Noem snapped during another contentious interview, saying, “I don’t think you have the facts straight.” (FOX Business)

“I don’t think you have the facts straight. This was a vicious, dangerous dog. That was a working dog. And I had to make a choice between the safety of my children and an animal that was killing livestock and attacking people,” Noem told Varney. “So it’s included because a lot of politicians have run from the truth. They want to try to hide from tough decisions.”

KRISTI NOEM ERUPTS ON CBS ANCHOR AFTER VIRAL INTERVIEW ABOUT CONTROVERSIAL BOOK

Varney pressed Noem on the age of the dog after she said it was an “adult,” and she then confirmed it was 14 months old when it was put down.

Donald Trump and Kristi Noem

President Trump speaks with South Dakota Gov.-elect Kristi Noem during a meeting with governors-elect at White House on Dec. 13, 2018. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

“I’m proud of this book,” Noem said. “I know that a lot of people are using attacks to try to take me down because they’re scared of me. I have so much support and all I’ve done is won.”

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The two then went back and forth over the topic, before Noem called it “ridiculous.”

“Enough Stuart, this interview is ridiculous, what you are doing right now. So you need to stop. It is,” she said when asked if she talked to former President Trump about the dog.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks before former President Trump takes the stage during a rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on March 16, 2024. (Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images)

Trump is considering Noem as one of his potential picks for vice president, which was confirmed when the former president released his short list of candidates for his 2024 ticket.

After the dog story prompted bipartisan backlash from members of Congress, Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told CNN, “I don’t see how it helps” her standing with voters.

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Opinion: How many ways can a political memoir backfire? Ask Kristi Noem.

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Opinion: How many ways can a political memoir backfire? Ask Kristi Noem.

Not to beat a dead, ah, horse, but how can we ignore the spectacle that South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has made of herself during her publicity tour for her just-published memoir, “No Going Back?”

Over the weekend, she sparred with Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation,” when Brennan asked her to reflect on the wisdom of including anecdotes about killing her dog and goat, and some other egregious stories in the book.

Opinion Columnist

Robin Abcarian

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Rather than answer simple questions about her judgment and memory, Noem proved to be a master of the kind of nonsensical pivoting segue that plagues politicians’ — especially Republican politicians’ — interviews these days. Allow me to paraphrase, but only barely:

Q: Do you regret writing about killing your dog Cricket?

A: Why is Joe Biden’s Secret Service agent-eating dog Commander still alive?

Q: Why’d you lie about meeting Kim Jong Un?

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A: None of your beeswax!

But the receipts, as they say, are there.

Or at least they were. In the embargoed copy of her memoir that the Guardian obtained, Noem was quoted as having written, “I remember when I met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. I’m sure he underestimated me, having no clue about my experience staring down little tyrants (I’d been a children’s pastor, after all).”

There is so much wrong with that passage, and not even because it never happened.

Pretending that a global villain like Kim would give a second thought to an obscure American congresswoman is narcissism at its most delusional. But to throw her own pastoral ducklings under the bus by comparing them to a murderous dictator? That’s harsh. (Not puppy-killing harsh, but still.)

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Noem was in Congress from 2011 to 2019. As South Dakota’s only representative in the House and a member of the Armed Services Committee, Noem of course traveled widely and came into contact with many world leaders. She writes about meeting, or being present at events with, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, England’s Boris Johnson and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. She approvingly cites the reelection of Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban.

On Tuesday, when “No Going Back” became officially available, I downloaded it on my Kindle. Noem’s face-to-face Kim Jong Un fantasy was nowhere to be found.

That Kim anecdote, however, is not the only one Noem has been accused of making up.

Other challenged tales include her assertion that she canceled a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in 2023 after he said something she considered to be anti-Israel and pro-Hamas, and her report of what she called a “threatening” phone call during the pandemic from former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, then contemplating a run for president.

Macron’s office told the Associated Press that Noem had never been invited to meet him, although, it conceded, it was possible they’d been scheduled to attend the same event in Paris.

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As for the call with Haley, writes Noem: “It was clear she wanted me to know that there was only room for one Republican woman in the spotlight. It was weird.”

Haley’s representative disputed Noem’s account, telling Politico that Haley, a former governor herself, had called Noem to offer support during the pandemic. “How she would twist that into a threat,” said Haley spokesman Chaney Denton, “is just plain weird.”

Sunday, Noem doubled down. “That story is absolutely true,” she told the hosts of “CBS Mornings.” “She’s a typical politician who says whatever she needs to on any given day to benefit herself.”

In a book full of puffed-up stories about her immense if imaginary courage, think of the real courage it would have taken to just suck it up and say, “I am sorry. I guess I got a little carried away.”

Instead, her spokesman, Ian Fury, essentially blamed Noem’s ghostwriter for the made-up incident with North Korea’s supreme leader. “Kim Jong Un was included in a list of world leaders and shouldn’t have been,” Fury told the Dakota Scout. “This has been communicated to the ghostwriter and editor.”

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That non-responsive excuse is right up there with the classic obfuscation “mistakes were made.” Ironically, in her memoir’s acknowledgments, Noem writes, “Shout out to Ian for keeping me honest.” Heckuva job, Ian!

Instead of admitting she screwed up, as one wag put it on social media, Noem scapeghosted.

So who is the ghostwriter?

From the memoir acknowledgments, it appears that he is Mike Loomis, whom Noem describes as “a crazy guy” who “even scolded me once for not being prepared on having material written!” (Snark alert: You can see from that phrase why she needed writing assistance.)

Loomis is an experienced hand who has ghostwritten at least a dozen memoirs, including one by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. I reached out to him via his website but have not received a reply. Poor guy is probably being inundated by requests for comments.

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On Monday, the day after her disastrous “Face the Nation” appearance, Noem was grilled by Elizabeth Vargas on the NewsNation network. Fortunately for Noem, her story about Cricket is no longer the big news. Unfortunately for Noem, interest now centers on whether she lied about staring down Kim Jong Un.

“When this was pointed out, we made an adjustment,” she told Vargas. “That name should not be in the book and I am not going to discuss those personal meetings.”

“But clearly if you’ve taken it out of the book, it’s because it’s untrue,” said Vargas.

“I’ve given you my answer,” said Noem, “and no, that’s not the answer.”

“You recorded the audio book, you read this whole book out loud, why didn’t you take it out then?” Vargas pressed.

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“Did you want to talk about something else today?” Noem asked.

“We’re just trying to get a straight answer,” Vargas replied.

“You did,” said Noem, “and I mean, I took responsibility for it. The buck stops with me.”

President Truman would be spinning in his grave.

@robinkabcarian

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Here's what GOP rebels want from Johnson amid threats to oust him from speakership

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Here's what GOP rebels want from Johnson amid threats to oust him from speakership

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The House conservatives threatening to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., are seeking assurances on government funding and aid to Ukraine, Fox News Digital is told.

Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., met with Johnson behind closed doors for roughly two hours late Monday afternoon after promising last week to force a House-wide vote on his removal. They declined to give details to reporters immediately after the sit-down but said they would have a follow-up discussion with Johnson on Tuesday.

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However, Fox News Digital was told they are broadly seeking four points – including no more funding for Ukraine nor special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into former President Trump.

They are also demanding that Johnson vow to block any legislation from getting a House-wide vote unless it has the support of a majority of the House GOP – a longstanding informal provision called the Hastert rule, named after a former Republican speaker.

MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE FILES MOTION TO OUST SPEAKER JOHNSON

Conservative Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie, right, are meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson about their ouster push. (Getty Images)

On government funding, the conservatives are also pushing Johnson to adhere to the Massie rule, which would require automatic federal spending cuts if an agreement is not reached on fiscal year 2025 funding by the Sept. 30 deadline. 

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Fox News Digital reached out to Greene, Massie and Johnson’s offices for comment. A spokesman for Greene declined to discuss the contents of a private meeting.

Meanwhile, Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., the third GOP rebel who signed onto Greene’s motion to vacate the chair – a resolution calling for a House-wide vote on removing the speaker – suggested to reporters on Monday evening that he wanted Johnson to have some more time to change course.

HOUSE DEMS SAY THEY’LL BLOCK MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE FROM OUSTING SPEAKER JOHNSON

Rep. Paul Gosar, a white man with blonde hair

Rep. Paul Gosar is the third House Republican pushing to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson. (Getty Images)

“I don’t think it’s going to happen this week. I hope it doesn’t happen this week,” Gosar told reporters. “I think it would be nice to see him go back to regular order, get things coming from committees, you get a majority of the majority to get something on the floor.”

Greene is leading the push to oust Johnson amid conservative frustrations over his bipartisan work on critical legislation related to government funding and foreign aid. She and Massie pledged to force the vote sometime this week.

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To do so, she would have to notice her resolution as “privileged” – meaning the House would have two legislative days to vote on the measure itself or first vote on scuttling it via a procedure known as “tabling” the resolution.

MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE CALLS JOHNSON’S FOREIGN AID PACKAGE HIS ‘3RD BETRAYAL’ OF AMERICAN PEOPLE

Hakeem Jeffries

U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said he would block a motion to vacate the vote against House Speaker Mike Johnson. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Democrats have pledged to block the ouster vote by voting to table the resolution whenever it comes up, something that could save Johnson while also likely raising more conservative frustrations.

Johnson told reporters on Monday evening that his meeting with Massie and Greene was “lengthy” but “constructive.”

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“We have discussed some ideas, and, we’re going to meet again tomorrow,” Johnson said. “I just want to say, and I told them, and I’ve said this repeatedly, that I understand the frustration. I share it. I would really like to advance much more of our conservative policy on a daily basis here. But, the reality is we are working with the smallest majority in U.S. history with a one-vote margin.”

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