Politics
RFK Jr. could be a spoiler in November. But will it help Biden or Trump?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign was once viewed as a quixotic quest by a scion of a storied political family — an environmental warrior who sullied his family’s name most recently by aligning himself with a political party founded by a segregationist to get on the November ballot in California.
But a combination of voter apathy about President Biden and former President Trump, the two main parties’ presumptive nominees, and the Kennedy campaign’s successful targeting of ballot qualification rules across the nation has prompted growing alarm among Democrats and Republicans alike.
“When you have nail-bitingly close elections, nearly any candidate can be a spoiler,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “Now, the interesting thing, unlike a Jill Stein [a perennial Green Party candidate], it’s not 100% clear which major party candidate he hurts most. That uncertainty is going to lead to a lot of churning on what the parties do … to keep him off the ballot.”
Kennedy, the son of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy (D-N.Y.) and nephew of President John F. Kennedy, has no real chance of being elected to the White House in November. However, the Californian could be a spoiler in the race, tilting the vote. Two names are frequently raised: H. Ross Perot in the 1992 race and Ralph Nader in 2000, though there is debate about how much their candidacies resulted in Bill Clinton and George W. Bush winning their respective elections.
Kennedy has qualified to appear on the ballots of three states, most recently California, and his campaign claims to have collected enough signatures to appear on the ballots of seven others, including Nevada.
In California, the American Independent Party submitted paperwork to have Kennedy appear on the ballot as its standard-bearer, the candidate announced this week.
George Wallace, a segregationist Alabama governor who opposed federal civil rights laws, helped found the party and ran on its ticket in the 1968 presidential campaign. Kennedy’s father, a staunch supporter of such rights, was assassinated in Los Angeles during that campaign.
Leaders of the party, which currently exists only in California, say it has disavowed its segregationist roots and is focused on conservatism and the Constitution. In a video Kennedy released Tuesday, he called Wallace a “bigot” who “was antithetical to everything my father believed in.”
Mainstream Democrats are incredulous about Kennedy’s association with the party. When Wallace stood in a schoolhouse door at the University of Alabama, trying to block two Black students from registering, President Kennedy called in the Alabama National Guard at a time when his brother, Robert, was the nation’s attorney general.
Paul Mitchell, a veteran Democratic strategist, said he previously believed Kennedy had a shot of winning California based purely on his last name. That is no longer the case, based on how he has run his campaign and whom he has chosen to associate with, Mitchell said.
“If he was a Kennedy and acting like a Kennedy and professional, I wouldn’t put [a California victory] out of the bounds,” said Mitchell, who noted that Kennedy associated with the fringe party after gathering a paltry number of signatures for a political party he was trying to form. “Now he’s a loony anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist and running a campaign like a loon. It’s so embarrassing.”
Biden supporters have been concerned about Kennedy for some time. The Democratic National Committee earlier this year established a team to oppose third-party candidates, chiefly Kennedy. Their first act was filing a Federal Election Commission complaint arguing that Kennedy’s campaign coordinated inappropriately with a Super PAC to qualify Kennedy for some states’ ballots.
“We know this is going to be a close election and we’re not going to take anything for granted,” said Matt Corridoni, a DNC spokesman working on the anti-third party effort, noting that the biggest donor to a pro-Kennedy PAC is a Trump mega-donor and that a New York-based campaign official pitched his candidacy by arguing that Kennedy would help Trump defeat Biden.
In April, several members of the Kennedy family endorsed Biden, including Kerry Kennedy, sister of the presidential candidate.
“We want to make crystal clear our feelings that the best way forward for America is to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for four more years,” she said at a campaign event in Philadelphia.
On Wednesday, Kennedy challenged Biden to agree that whichever of them did worse in a head-to-head poll in the fall would drop out of the race to prevent Trump being elected to a second term.
But Republicans including Trump have recently signaled growing concern about Kennedy eating into the former president’s support.
“RFK Jr. is a Democrat ‘Plant,’ a Radical Left Liberal who’s been put in place in order to help Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States, get Re-Elected,” Trump posted on Truth Social on April 26, arguing that the candidate opposes gun rights and the military and supports raising taxes, open borders and radical environmental policy. “A Vote for Junior would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him.”
Trump posted that before a Monmouth University poll released Monday found that after voters were told about Kennedy’s skepticism of vaccines, their views changed — prior polling showed that Kennedy pulled support evenly from Biden and Trump.
In the new poll, the percentage of Republicans who said they would support Kennedy nearly doubled to almost one out of five after being told about his views about vaccines, while Democrats’ support dropped sharply to roughly 10%.
Kennedy has also been receiving attention on conservative media, such as Wednesday evening on “Jesse Watters Primetime” on Fox News Channel, where he argued that his campaign’s polling shows him winning in a head-to-head matchup against either Biden or Trump.
But “if I’m in the race, in a three-way race, I lose because people are voting out of fear, because they think the other guy — a vote for me is going to put somebody they hate in office,” he said. “But if I go head to head with either of them, I win.”
Trump’s advisors are piqued by Kennedy receiving attention from such outlets.
“For the life of me, I can’t understand why anyone on a conservative platform would feature the likes of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who believes the NRA is a terrorist organization, whose positions on the environment are more radical than [Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez], and who believes in a 70% tax bracket,” said Chris LaCivita, a lead strategist for Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee’s chief of staff.
“From our standpoint, only one person is more liberal than Joe Biden and that’s Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,” LaCivita said, adding that Kennedy “is a blank canvas and we are going to fill it with paint.”
Politics
Johnson Installs Crawford on Intelligence Panel, Pulling It Closer to Trump
Speaker Mike Johnson on Thursday appointed Representative Rick Crawford of Arkansas as the new chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a move that was seen as aligning the powerful panel more closely with the agenda of President-elect Donald J. Trump.
The appointment of Mr. Crawford came amid much consternation on Capitol Hill over Mr. Johnson’s sudden and unexpected removal on Wednesday of Representative Michael R. Turner of Ohio, who had served for three years as the top Republican on the panel and had at times been critical of Mr. Trump.
Mr. Turner had been an influential, and increasingly lonely, G.O.P. voice in support of America’s traditional role in intelligence-gathering operations and supporting allies abroad.
But he had voted to certify President Biden’s victory over Mr. Trump in 2020. Mr. Crawford, by contrast, voted to object to the 2020 election results. While Mr. Turner played a pivotal role in the Republican push on Capitol Hill to continue sending aid to Ukraine for its battle against Russian aggression, Mr. Crawford has at times voted against funding Kyiv’s war effort.
And in the wake of his abrupt ouster, Mr. Turner told people that Mr. Johnson had informed him that he was being removed because of “concerns from Mar-a-Lago,” according to two people familiar with the conversations.
Since Mr. Johnson made his move, Democrats and some Republicans have blasted the decision to remove Mr. Turner, who was known for working in a bipartisan manner. Appointment to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence is one of the most serious jobs in Congress, and the lawmakers selected for the job are trusted with some of the nation’s most sensitive information.
“Mike Turner has robustly promoted the safety of the American people and the free world, and his unjustified ouster is likely being applauded by our adversaries in Russia and China,” Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, said on Thursday, calling it “shameful.”
Mr. Turner was not trusted among top aides to Mr. Trump, but was nevertheless blindsided by his defenestration.
The Ohioan was among a group of committee chairmen who visited Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago last weekend, where Trump aides presented Mr. Turner with a birthday cake with a candle. He appeared in a good mood and spoke briefly with Mr. Trump at the event, according to people who observed them.
But beyond the niceties, displeasure with Mr. Turner was brewing. Mr. Trump and his top aides have long viewed members of the intelligence community as adversaries, and some close to Mr. Trump view Mr. Turner as being too close to what they pejoratively call “the deep state.”
According to one person familiar with the matter, the president-elect was “not happy” to hear that Representative Mike Waltz of Florida, a member of the Intelligence Committee who is in line to be his national security adviser, had proposed bringing on a top aide of Mr. Turner’s for his National Security Council staff.
At the same time, members of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, with whom Mr. Trump is close, have been angry with Mr. Turner since last year, when they accused him of being “reckless” in raising alarms about a national security threat during debate over the renewal of a key provision in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
But both Mr. Johnson and Mr. Trump’s advisers have been adamant that the president-elect made no direct order to fire Mr. Turner.
Mr. Johnson said the decision to remove Mr. Turner from the panel was his alone and noted that the Ohioan would still serve as the House’s point person to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“The House Intel Committee will play a pivotal role in this work in the new Congress, and Rick Crawford will provide principled leadership as its chairman,” Mr. Johnson said in a statement announcing Mr. Crawford’s appointment.
A person close to Mr. Johnson said the speaker viewed him as the choice of the former speaker, Kevin McCarthy, and that Mr. Johnson wanted to select his own team.
Mr. Johnson said on Wednesday that the intelligence community and everything related to the panel “needs a fresh start.”
But the change at the top of the intelligence committee was seen as a victory for the so-called America First wing of the party in a long-simmering civil war within the G.O.P.
Mr. Crawford is seen as less reliable in his support of Ukraine aid than Mr. Turner. The two men voted similarly with regards to renewing the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
In a statement, Mr. Crawford said he planned to serve as a check on the intelligence community.
“Without aggressive oversight and vigorous protection of Americans’ Fourth Amendment rights, the I.C. is prone to give in to mission creep and skirt U.S. laws,” he said. “In all our work, I pledge to preserve Americans’ constitutional rights even as we work to support the I.C. in doing everything required to collect indispensable information from our foreign adversaries.”
Mr. Johnson started remaking the committee last year to be more aligned with Mr. Trump when he appointed Representatives Ronny Jackson of Texas, Mr. Trump’s former White House physician, and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, the former leader of the House Freedom Caucus.
He will soon have more appointments to make. In addition to the departure of Mr. Waltz, Representative Elise Stefanik of New York is also expected to join the Trump administration, creating two more vacancies.
Politics
ICE says it will needs massive funding hike, tens of thousands more beds to implement Laken Riley Act
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is telling lawmakers that the Laken Riley Act, an anti-illegal immigration bill expected to hit President-elect Trump’s desk in the coming weeks, will cost an additional $3 billion due to the agency needing an additional 60,000 detention beds.
ICE responded to questions by Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., on the impact of the Laken Riley Act. The bill passed the House this month and looks likely to pass the Senate. It requires DHS to detain illegal immigrants who have been arrested for theft-related crimes.
It also allows for states to sue DHS for alleged failures in enforcing immigration law. The bill is named after Laken Riley, a Georgia student who was murdered by an illegal immigrant from Venezuela last year. It has picked up the support of Republicans as well as a number of Democrats.
BIDEN DHS EXEMPTED THOUSANDS OF IMMIGRANTS FROM TERROR-RELATED ENTRY RESTRICTIONS IN FY 2024
In the letter, obtained by Fox, ICE says it has identified tens of thousands of illegal immigrants who would meet the criteria for arrest both on its detained docket and non-detained docket. It said that its Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has estimated that the number of illegal immigrants on its national docket who meet the criteria would be over 60,000. The letter was first reported by Politico.
“Since the Laken Riley Act requires ERO to immediately detain those noncitizens, ERO would then require, at minimum, 64,000 additional detention beds; however this does not account for other immigration enforcement mandates that may place a need for increased detention capacity.”
SENATE DEMS TO JOIN REPUBLICANS TO ADVANCE ANTI-ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION BILL NAMED AFTER LAKEN RILEY
ICE estimates that increasing that capacity would require a funding increase of approximately $3.2 billion. Additionally, it estimates that it will need 10 new Mobile Crisis Assistance Teams (MCAT) and a HQ law enforcement officer across eight field offices, requiring an additional nearly $15 million along with associated equipment.
Notably, ERO says it currently possesses the authority to fulfill the requirements of the Act and would require no additional authorities.
The agency warned that it may have to release tens of thousands of illegal immigrants if it does not get the additional bedspace.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE IMMIGRATION COVERAGE
“…[I]f supplemental funding is not received and ICE remains at its current bed capacity, the agency would not have the detention capacity to accommodate the immediate arrest and detention of noncitizens convicted or charged with property crimes,” it says. “ERO anticipates that tens of thousands of noncitizens would need to be released by the end of the fiscal year, resulting in the potential release of public safety threats.”
As challenges to implementation, it cites the challenges of having ICE officers, and also the challenges of sanctuary cities: “A complicating factor is a lack of cooperation from ICE’s state and local law enforcement partners.”
This is not the first alarm that ICE has sounded about its funding levels, noting in its FY 24 report that it is already underfunded with its existing responsibilities.
“Throughout the year, the agency was called on to do more without commensurate funding, working within the confines of strained resources and competing priorities while steadfastly supporting the Department of Homeland Security and its component agencies in their efforts to secure the border,” the agency said.
President-elect Trump has promised to launch a mass deportation operation, in which ICE would be the operative agency. In Congress, Republicans are preparing to make significant funding changes via the budget reconciliation process. Border security and interior enforcement would likely be top priorities for Republicans, given the issues’ prominence in the 2024 election.
Politics
Rep. Nancy Pelosi will not attend Trump's inauguration
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) will not attend President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, a spokesman confirmed Thursday.
The spokesperson did not provide a reason for Pelosi’s decision to skip the ceremonial event, which is slated for the U.S. Capitol on Monday. The decision was reported earlier by ABC News.
Pelosi, 84, who has retained political prominence and influence in the Democratic Party — and her seat in the House — despite giving up her longtime leadership role after Republicans won control of the House in 2022, has long had a contentious relationship with Trump.
She also broke her hip and was hospitalized while traveling with a bipartisan congressional delegation in Luxembourg last month — though she has returned to the halls of Congress since, including for the Jan. 6 confirmation of Trump’s electoral victory.
Trump did not attend the inauguration of President Biden after losing to Biden in the 2020 election. He also denied that he lost despite all evidence to the contrary — a lie he maintains to this day. He was the first president to skip the inauguration of his successor since Andrew Johnson did so in 1869.
Pelosi has called Trump “crazy” and unfit for office. Trump has called Pelosi “evil” and an “enemy” of the country. The pair have sparred for years. Pelosi raised eyebrows when she ripped up a copy of Trump’s State of the Union speech behind him in 2020. Trump infuriated the former speaker by mocking a violent attack on her husband at the couple’s San Francisco home.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama has also announced that she will not attend the inauguration, though former President Obama will, according to the Associated Press. The former first lady also has been an outspoken critic of Trump.
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