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Opinion: Why Trump's plan to deport millions will fall far short of what it promises

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Opinion: Why Trump's plan to deport millions will fall far short of what it promises

Will President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to “launch the largest deportation program in American history” truly keep millions of immigrants out of the country? My research on deportees over the last five years suggests it won’t.

Here’s why: They’ll come back.

One of the migrants I interviewed was deported to a perilous town in northern Mexico, where he found himself in immediate danger on arriving at a bus terminal. Members of a criminal group demanded that he provide a contraseña — a password he didn’t have — or face kidnapping. He ultimately borrowed $1,500 from a friend to pay them off, remain free and make his way back to the United States.

His experience is an example of the risks deportees face in their countries of origin. Those dangers — and the relative safety of the only homes they have — often motivate them to undertake harrowing journeys back to the United States.

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Although data on deportees is somewhat limited, the evidence we have shows that people re-immigrate after deportation more frequently than many might expect. In fiscal 2020, for example, the federal government classified 40% of deportations as “reinstatements of removal,” meaning the deportees had reentered the United States after being removed or ordered to leave. A 2019 report by the American Immigration Council, a pro-immigration advocacy group, similarly noted that such reinstatements of removal generally make up 40% of deportations annually. From 2011 to 2020, approximately 1.3 million deportations affected people who had been deported before.

That’s because deportation policies are at best blunt instruments that take little account of the human lives they ensnare. Those who view mass deportation as a solution to unauthorized immigration ignore the deep roots, sense of belonging, family ties and resolve that drive people back to the country they call home.

Undeterred by deportation, people I’ve interviewed have found ways to return to the United States with or without permission. Their stories reveal the rarely discussed truth that deportation is not necessarily the end of migration; it is often a temporary, futile interruption.

I spoke to another man who was born in Mexico but raised in the United States, served in the military and struggled with post-traumatic stress. Because of a minor cannabis possession charge, he was deported to a country he barely remembered. In 2021, more than a decade after his exile, he returned to the only land he considers his own, the United States.

“You can travel the world,” he told me, “but eventually, your heart and spirit will call you home.”

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Another Mexican-born, U.S.-raised military veteran I interviewed was also deported over a marijuana charge. Feeling “erased from existence,” he risked his life to return less than a month later.

“I don’t need a paper to tell me I’m an American,” he told me.

These stories expose a fundamental flaw of mass deportation. In contrast to the cyclical migration patterns of earlier decades — when migrants, mostly men, moved back and forth between the United States and Mexico with relative ease in response to the labor market — today’s cycle is driven by government coercion and unbreakable bonds. Forced departures lead to inevitable returns as deportees are pulled back by connections that no amount of enforcement can sever.

The coyotes who smuggle them have become part of what the anthropologist Jason De León calls a “border-security-industrial complex.” If their illicit businesses were publicly traded, their stocks would be soaring on renewed demand. Meanwhile, border enforcement policies push migrants into treacherous terrain where they face dehydration, hypothermia and death in the desert.

For deportees, returning is an act not just of determination, but of survival. Some are lucky enough to make it back, but as the Spanish saying goes, “Tanto va el cántaro al agua hasta que se quiebra”: The pitcher goes to the well until it finally breaks. Deportation policies push people to take increasingly greater risks to return to the only homes they’ve ever known. The next attempt could always be their last.

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Deportation may well become the defining issue of our era if we continue down this punitive path. When mass deportations fail, what will follow? Will we see modern-day versions of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s executive order authorizing forced removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans, complete with “relocation centers”?

Under a very different executive order signed by President Biden in 2021, the Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs departments prioritized the return of deported U.S. military members and their families. The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, known as DACA, similarly sought to recognize longtime residents’ ties to the country and restore their place in the American communities they call home.

Such policies live up to American ideals of justice and inclusion by embracing those who, in every meaningful way, already belong. Mass deportation would betray those values, put even more lives at risk and very often fail on its own terms.

Saúl Ramírez is a fellow at Harvard Law School and a doctoral candidate in sociology at Harvard.

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Video: Protests Against ICE in Minneapolis Continue Into Friday Night

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Video: Protests Against ICE in Minneapolis Continue Into Friday Night

new video loaded: Protests Against ICE in Minneapolis Continue Into Friday Night

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Protests Against ICE in Minneapolis Continue Into Friday Night

Hundreds of protesters marched through downtown Minneapolis on Friday night. They stopped at several hotels along the way to blast music, bang drums and play instruments to try to disrupt the sleep of immigration agents who might be staying there. Mayor Jacob Frey of Minneapolis said there were 29 arrests but that it was mostly a “peaceful protest.”

The vast majority of people have done this right. We are so deeply appreciative of them. But we have seen a few incidents last night. Those incidents are being reviewed, but we wanted to again give the overarching theme of what we’re seeing, which is peaceful protest. And we wanted to say when that doesn’t happen, of course, there are consequences. We are a safe city. We will not counter Donald Trump’s chaos with our own brand of chaos here. We in Minneapolis are going to do this right.

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Hundreds of protesters marched through downtown Minneapolis on Friday night. They stopped at several hotels along the way to blast music, bang drums and play instruments to try to disrupt the sleep of immigration agents who might be staying there. Mayor Jacob Frey of Minneapolis said there were 29 arrests but that it was mostly a “peaceful protest.”

By McKinnon de Kuyper

January 10, 2026

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Trump says Venezuela has begun releasing political prisoners ‘in a BIG WAY’

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Trump says Venezuela has begun releasing political prisoners ‘in a BIG WAY’

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

President Donald Trump said Saturday that Venezuela has begun releasing political prisoners “in a BIG WAY,” crediting U.S. intervention for the move following last week’s American military operation in the country.

“Venezuela has started the process, in a BIG WAY, of releasing their political prisoners,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Thank you! I hope those prisoners will remember how lucky they got that the USA came along and did what had to be done.”

He added a warning directed at those being released: “I HOPE THEY NEVER FORGET! If they do, it will not be good for them.”

The president’s comments come one week after the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve, a strike on Venezuela and capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro as well as his wife Cilia Flores, transporting them to the United States to face federal drug trafficking charges.

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US WARNS AMERICANS TO LEAVE VENEZUELA IMMEDIATELY AS ARMED MILITIAS SET UP ROADBLOCKS

Government supporters in Venezuela rally in Caracas.  (AP Photo)

Following the military operation, Trump said the U.S. intends to temporarily oversee Venezuela’s transition of power, asserting American involvement “until such time as a safe, proper and judicious transition” can take place and warning that U.S. forces stand ready to escalate if necessary.

At least 18 political prisoners were reported freed as of Saturday and there is no comprehensive public list of all expected releases, Reuters reported.

Maduro and Flores were transported to New York after their capture to face charges in U.S. federal court. The Pentagon has said that Operation Absolute Resolve involved more than 150 aircraft and months of planning.

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TRUMP ADMIN SAYS MADURO CAPTURE REINFORCES ALIEN ENEMIES ACT REMOVALS

A demonstrator holding a Venezuelan flag sprays graffiti during a march in Mexico City on Santurday. (Alfredo Estrella / AFP via Getty Images)

Trump has said the U.S. intends to remain actively involved in Venezuela’s security, political transition and reconstruction of its oil infrastructure.

The White House did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

President Donald Trump said Saturday that Venezuela has begun releasing political prisoners. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)

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Fox News Digital’s Morgan Phillips and Greg Norman-Diamond contributed to this reporting.

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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth tours Long Beach rocket factory

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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth tours Long Beach rocket factory

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who is taking a tour of U.S. defense contractors, on Friday visited a Long Beach rocket maker, where he told workers they are key to President Trump’s vision of military supremacy.

Hegseth stopped by a manufacturing plant operated by Rocket Lab, an emerging company that builds satellites and provides small-satellite launch services for commercial and government customers.

Last month, the company was awarded an $805-million military contract, its largest to date, to build satellites for a network being developed for communications and detection of new threats, such as hypersonic missles.

“This company, you right here, are front and center, as part of ensuring that we build an arsenal of freedom that America needs,” Hegseth told several hundred cheering workers. “The future of the battlefield starts right here with dominance of space.”

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Founded in 2006 in New Zealand, the company makes a small rocket called Electron — which lay on its side near Hegseth — and is developing a larger one called Neutron. It moved to the U.S. a decade ago and opened its Long Beach headquaters in 2020.

Rocket Lab is among a new wave of companies that have revitalized Southern California’s aerospace and defense industry, which shed hundreds of thousands of jobs in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War. Large defense contractors such as Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin moved their headquarters to the East Coast.

Many of the new companies were founded by former employees of SpaceX, which was started by Elon Musk in 2002 and was based in the South Bay before moving to Texas in 2024. However, it retains major operations in Hawthorne.

Hegseth kicked off his tour Monday with a visit to a Newport News, Va., shipyard. The tour is described as “a call to action to revitalize America’s manufacturing might and re-energize the nation’s workforce.”

Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson, a Democrat who said he was not told of the event, said Hegseth’s visit shows how the city has flourished despite such setbacks as the closure of Boeing’s C-17 Globemaster III transport plant.

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“Rocket Lab has really been a superstar in terms of our fast, growing and emerging space economy in Long Beach,” Richardson said. “This emergence of space is really the next stage of almost a century of innovation that’s really taking place here.”

Prior stops in the region included visits to Divergent, an advanced manufacturing company in aerospace and other industries, and Castelion, a hypersonic missile startup founded by former SpaceX employees. Both are based in Torrance.

The tour follows an overhaul of the Department of Defense’s procurement policy Hegseth announced in November. The policy seeks to speed up weapons development and acquisition by first finding capabilities in the commercial market before the government attempts to develop new systems.

Trump also issued an executive order Wednesday that aims to limit shareholder profits of defense contractors that do not meet production and budget goals by restricting stock buybacks and dividends.

Hegseth told the workers that the administration is trying to prod old-line defense contractors to be more innovative and spend more on development — touting Rocket Lab as the kind of company that will succeed, adding it had one of the “coolest factory floors” he had ever seen.

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“I just want the best, and I want to ensure that the competition that exists is fair,” he said.

Hegseth’s visit comes as Trump has flexed the nation’s military muscles with the Jan. 3 abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now facing drug trafficking charges to which he has pleaded not guilty.

Hegseth in his speech cited Maduro’s capture as an example of the country’s newfound “deterrence in action.” Though Trump’s allies supported the action, legal experts and other critics have argued that the operation violated international and U.S. law.

Trump this week said he wants to radically boost U.S. military spending to $1.5 trillion in 2027 from $900 billion this year so he can build the “Dream Military.”

Hegseth told the workers it would be a “historic investment” that would ensure the U.S. is never challenged militarily.

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Trump also posted on social media this week that executive salaries of defense companies should be capped at $5 million unless they speed up development and production of advanced weapons — in a dig at existing prime contractors.

However, the text of his Wednesday order caps salaries at current levels and ties future executive incentive compensation to delivery and production metrics.

Anduril Industries in Costa Mesa is one of the leading new defense companies in Southern California. The privately held maker of autonomous weapons systems closed a $2.5-billion funding round last year.

Founder Palmer Luckey told Bloomberg News he supported Trump’s moves to limit executive compensation in the defense sector, saying, “I pay myself $100,000 a year.” However, Luckey has a stake in Anduril, last valued by investors at $30.5 billion.

Peter Beck, the founder and chief executive of Rocket Lab, took a base salary of $575,000 in 2024 but with bonus and stock awards his total compensation reached $20.1 million, according to a securities filing. He also has a stake in the company, which has a market capitalization of about $45 billion.

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Beck introduced Hegseth saying he was seeking to “reinvigorate the national industrial base and create a leaner, more effective Department of War, one that goes faster and leans on commercial companies just like ours.”

Rocket Lab boasts that its Electron rocket, which first launched in 2017, is the world’s leading small rocket and the second most frequently launched U.S. rocket behind SpaceX.

It has carried payloads for NASA, the U.S. Space Force and the National Reconnaissance Office, aside from commercial customers.

The company employs 2,500 people across facilities in New Zealand, Canada and the U.S., including in Virginia, Colorado and Mississippi.

Rocket Lab shares closed at $84.84 on Friday, up 2%.

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