Politics
Opinion: What's convincing voters that the economy is worse than it ever was?
One of the worst things about democracy is the way we talk about it.
For instance, politicians love to talk about unity, but our constitutional system was to set up to keep unity at bay, preferring a more adversarial approach, pitting faction against faction. Checks and balances, separation of powers and the divided authorities between the federal and state governments are predicated on the idea that unity will be rare and temporary. The Constitution places our most cherished liberties on a high shelf, hard to reach during moments of unifying populist passion.
The rhetorical mismatch doesn’t just apply to the mechanisms of democracy but also to the culture of democracy. Democratic manners demand that politicians never say the voters are wrong. But competitive elections — essential to any workable definition of democracy — require some voters to be “wrong.” I don’t necessarily mean in their policy preferences (though that’s frequently the case), I just mean elections create winners and losers. And yet, winning politicians, with barely half of the electorate on their side, routinely declare that the “America people have spoken” after every victory.
More to the point, voters are often simply wrong about basic facts going into an election. For instance, the Biden campaign is struggling with an electorate that believes the economy is far worse than it is. To be clear, I didn’t say they the economy is good, though that argument can be made. No, President Biden is struggling to convince the electorate that the economy isn’t the worst ever.
A recent YouGov survey asked voters to say which decade, starting in the 1930s, had the worst economy. A third (32%) said the 2020s, our current decade, is the worst, worse even than the 1930s or 1970s. Only 23% said the ’30s and a mere 5% named the ’70s as the worst. This is, by any objective measure, wrong, spectacularly wrong.
Now, there’s a lot of partisan bias at work here. Only 19% of Democrats said ours is the worst decade and 24% did say the 1930s were, but 45% of Republicans believe the 2020s are the worst. Still, when nearly 1 in 5 Democrats wrongly believe things are worse than during the Great Depression, Democrats have got a problem.
This is merely one facet of Biden’s “vibes” problem. Large numbers of Americans (42%) think the 2020s are the worst decade for crime, which is just wrong. Twenty-eight percent think the 1940s — World War II, duh — had the “most war.” Only 4% named the 1970s and 6% cited the 2000s — when America fought, respectively, the Vietnam war and invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. But 19% said the current decade had the “most war” — and we’re not at war, though events in Ukraine and Gaza do make the times seem bellicose. From scientific breakthroughs to family unhappiness to racial inequality, lots of Americans just think things have never been worse.
Now, subjectively, there are perfectly valid arguments that things are not going well or that they can or should be going better. But we’re talking about objective judgments here, and objectively huge numbers of Americans are objectively wrong. And in fairness to them, I suspect many people don’t think they’re making objective judgments. When people say, “I’m having the worst day — or decade — ever!” they’re not necessarily being literal. They’re making a vibes declaration.
This is obviously a huge problem for Joe Biden. Thanks in part to the ravages of inflation and high interest rates and in part to his own shortcomings, he can’t change minds about the economy. But the causality works both ways. Economic realities contribute to negative attitudes and negative attitudes shape how the economy is perceived. And on many fronts, particularly race, Biden is fueling those negative attitudes (see his commencement address at Morehouse College).
But that explanation is insufficient. Democracy depends on the promise of incremental, cumulative, progress. James Madison didn’t want polls to be the measure of the voters’ mood, but elections. Which is why we have them constantly, at every level of government. Democracy, for Madison, isn’t about unity or agreement, but about argument and disagreement, and constant self-correction.
Thanks to that vision, we’ve made enormous strides. But now, both parties wallow in catastrophism and presentism. Donald Trump — who has the historical memory of a goldfish — falsely screeches that things have never been worse. Yet as cartoonish as his rhetoric is, he’s making a right-wing version of a common left-wing argument. Indeed, every four years, partisans insist that this is the “most important election ever” and that catastrophe or salvation is on the ballot. Relentlessly crying wolf has fueled the mess we’ve found ourselves in, and perhaps the mess to come.
After all, when you constantly tell people we’re in an existential crisis, the vibes can create the reality, whether it’s warranted by the facts or not.
@jonahdispatch
Politics
Republicans within striking distance of House majority as key races remain too close to call
The majority in the House of Representatives appears within reach for Republicans, who have already won control of the Senate and the White House.
Associated Press race projections show Republicans holding 210 seats compared to 198 seats for Democrats as of Friday morning.
A total of five sitting House lawmakers are projected to lose their re-election bids so far — three Republicans and two Democrats.
Several races involving GOP incumbents in California are still too close to call and are likely to be pivotal to the House majority.
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Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has expressed confidence in keeping the House. (Getty Images)
Republicans in three Arizona districts, as well as GOP lawmakers in Nebraska, Iowa and Oregon, are also still awaiting result projections.
Whichever party reaches 218 seats first will hold the House majority in the 119th Congress.
House Republican leaders have been touting confidence in their eventual victory, with the top four House leaders already formally announcing bids to hold the same spots in a January House majority.
“It appears we’re going to hold the House and flip the Senate,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., told Fox News Digital on Wednesday night. “California’s the main state still. You know, in a lot of those close races, our incumbents are leading the way — by small margins, but we knew there would be small margins.”
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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said margins were expectedly tight. (Reuters/Mike Segar)
It’s a far cry from House Democrats, whose hopes of winning the majority are rapidly decreasing. Multiple sources told Fox News Digital on Wednesday that Democrats were bracing for Republicans to win complete control of Congress and the White House.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., pointed out that a Republican victory is not a forgone conclusion, however.
“It has yet to be decided who will control the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. We must count every vote and wait until the results in Oregon, Arizona and California are clear,” Jeffries said in a statement that also congratulated President-elect Trump.
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has urged patience as the votes are counted. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Democrats have scored key wins in projections by unseating Republican incumbents in three New York seats — Reps. Marc Molinaro, Brandon Williams and Anthony D’Esposito.
Republicans are projected to flip three seats as well — one vacated by a Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., to run for Senate, and two districts held by moderate Democrats in Pennsylvania.
The GOP also saw former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry, R-Pa., projected to survive his toughest race yet as of Thursday afternoon.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
Avery Poznanski was excited for a new chapter.
The nonbinary transgender senior at UCLA had decided last month, after years of personal discovery and long discussions with their family and doctors, to start testosterone therapy. The first few weeks felt exciting, fulfilling.
Then Donald Trump, after running a virulently anti-transgender campaign, won the presidential election Tuesday — which felt “really frightening” and “disheartening,” Poznanski said.
“I’m sort of still stunned about how big of an issue trans expression and rights became on Trump’s side, and how hard they campaigned on it,” the 21-year-old Murrietta native said Wednesday. “I’m just feeling scared, honestly.”
Across the U.S., transgender and other queer people are grappling with the fact that Americans voted in large numbers for a candidate who openly ridiculed them on the campaign trail, and a political party that spent millions on anti-LGBTQ+ attack ads.
For many, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump is not just upsetting but deeply threatening. They are looking for reasons to be optimistic, such as Sarah McBride’s election in Delaware, which will make her the first out transgender member of Congress. But most just feel gutted — in part because they believe Trump will carry through on his promises to strip away their rights.
Sarah McBride, at an election watch party Tuesday in Wilmington, Del., is set to be sworn in as the first out transgender member of Congress in January.
(Pamela Smith / Associated Press)
“It’s a scary time to be a trans person, and to hear so much really unfounded and startling rhetoric from that side, and to think that that may be pushed into actual legislation,” Poznanski said.
Trump’s election follows years of increasing political hostility toward transgender people and a wave of state laws aimed at curtailing the rights of this tiny subset of the American population. But it also marked a new escalation.
Trump denigrated transgender people from the start of the race. In one of his first campaign videos — part of his “Agenda 47” policy platform — he said “left-wing gender insanity [was] being pushed on our children” and amounted to “child abuse.”
He said he would sign an executive order upon taking office “instructing every federal agency to cease all programs that promote the concept of sex and gender transition at any age”; block federal funding to hospitals that provide gender-affirming care; ensure “severe consequences” for teachers who acknowledge transgender children; and push schools to “promote positive education about the nuclear family, the roles of mothers and fathers, and celebrating rather than erasing the things that make men and women different and unique.”
Trump also routinely disparaged transgender people on the campaign trail. He cast them as a threat to women and girls, including in sports, and told absurd lies to drum up additional fear — including his claim that American children were being whisked out of schools to have genital surgeries without their parents’ consent.
In September, Trump’s campaign started running an attack ad that hammered Harris over a policy of providing gender-affirming healthcare to federal inmates, using the line, “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” And when that appeared to resonate with voters, the campaign doubled down, airing anti-transgender ads during sports games and across the swing states. One recent estimate put Republican spending on anti-transgender ads on network television alone at $215 million.
Trans rights supporters protested at the Indiana Statehouse last year before passage of a ban on gender-affirming treatment for minors.
(Darron Cummings / Associated Press)
LGBTQ+ rights organizations have challenged the notion that voters found Trump’s anti-transgender message appealing, and polls have shown that many Americans support transgender rights. Still, the fact that such a message was so core to Trump’s winning campaign says something about the American electorate, according to transgender people and their family members.
“I think it was very popular with his base, and with the folks who were throwing money at him,” said Amber Easley, a mother in San Bernardino County whose 17-year-old son, Milo, is transgender. “It was a direct contributor to [Trump’s] success, which is kind of devastating.”
Jaymes Black, chief executive of the Trevor Project, which operates phone, text and chat lines for queer youth experiencing suicidal thoughts or otherwise needing to talk, said the group’s services had seen demand increase about 125% on election day through Wednesday morning, compared to normal days.
“The Trevor Project wants LGBTQ+ young people to know that we are here for you, no matter the outcome of any election, and we will continue to fight for every LGBTQ+ young person to have access to safe, affirming spaces — especially during challenging times,” Black said. “LGBTQ+ young people: your life matters, and you were born to live it.”
Erin Reed, a transgender activist and independent journalist who has written extensively about the trans community, said there is “a lot of despair” out there among queer people.
Trans rights activist and journalist Erin Reed, right, and her fiancee, Montana state Rep. Zooey Zephyr, in 2023.
(Jacquelyn Martin / Associated Press)
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it: I had to talk three or four people down from suicide,” Reed said of conversations she‘d had on election night. “That’s the reality that people are facing right now.”
Many transgender people are already “very unsafe” living in Republican-controlled states that have passed sweeping anti-trans measures in recent years, Reed said, including bans on gender-affirming healthcare, on transgender people using bathrooms that match their identities, on queer-affirming books, and on processes that allow transgender people to update state documents such as driver’s licenses.
Now, Reed said, transgender people around across the country — including in blue states — are wondering whether Trump and his newly empowered Republican colleagues in the upcoming Congress will be able to pass similar measures at the federal level.
Those in the trans community are also worried that Democrats will abandon them now based on a perception that defending them is too costly politically, Reed said; they’re wondering, “How do we manage to not get thrown under the bus?”
Many Democrats have voiced solidarity with the queer community, and queer leaders and organizations are doing outreach to make sure queer people are OK and to push back against Republican narratives that dehumanize transgender people — which is all vital, but not enough, said Honey Mahogany, executive director of the San Francisco Office of Transgender Initiatives.
“I would like to see solidarity from other communities, assurances that we are all in this together and then collective organizing,” she said.
Both she and Reed said transgender voices are too often left out of the discussion about transgender lives, and said that must stop.
Milo Easley, a senior at Redlands High School, agrees. He wants more people to talk about transgender issues — just not in the way Trump does, with “so much negativity” and “a lot of fearmongering.”
Milo Easley, a transgender high school student, at home in Redlands last year.
(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)
Milo said he finds some comfort living in California, which has laws that protect transgender people and gender-affirming care — but he’s still scared by Trump’s win and worried about queer friends in other states.
“They are already dealing with anti-trans policies, and the risk of having more under Trump is a serious concern,” Milo said. “A lot of them tell me how they are afraid for the future with Trump in office.”
He is trying to stay positive — including about the future, where he sees “a lot of room for improvement” — but it’s tough.
Poznanski also feels lucky to live in California, and to be receiving gender-affirming healthcare, but worries about young people in less-friendly states who don’t have access to such treatment.
But Poznanski is also hopeful and determined to live.
“Our existences are politicized,” they said. “But just living is an act of resistance.”
FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., is running to lead the Senate Republican campaign arm in the next election cycle, sharing the announcement exclusively with Fox News Digital.
On Friday, Scott launched his bid to lead the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) for the 2026 midterm cycle, after speculation last month that he planned to do so.
“Let’s do this! I’m running for NRSC Chair because two years of a Republican agenda is good, but four years of success under Donald J. Trump is even better,” he told Fox News Digital in a statement.
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Scott is hoping to lead Republicans in the next cycle of Senate elections. (Reuters)
“That means the entire four years of his presidency will create low inflation, secure borders and safe streets, leading to a generation of American prosperity! With Donald J. Trump in the White House and Republicans leading the U.S. Senate, we will protect our majority in 2026 and create opportunities for all Americans.”
The South Carolina senator ran for president in the 2024 Republican primary before dropping out and endorsing Trump. He was also considered a contender to be Trump’s running mate before Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, was chosen.
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Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Scott additionally rolled out three high-profile endorsements to go with his campaign announcement.
Current NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, R-Mont., who just successfully led the campaign arm in helping Republicans take back the majority, has thrown his support behind Scott.
“We took back the U.S. Senate in 2024, and there is no one I trust more to protect the majority in 2026 than Tim Scott,” Daines said in a statement.
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Sen. Tim Scott spoke at a South Carolina GOP delegation breakfast Wednesday (Getty Images)
The South Carolina Republican was also endorsed by Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso, R-Wyo.
“Tim’s inspiring message, record of fundraising and vision for the party makes him the perfect partner for President Trump,” Barrasso said. “Together, they will protect and grow the Republican majority. There’s nobody better than Tim Scott.”
“Protecting the majority and growing the party starts with a vision and the resources to compete anywhere. That is why I’m confident in Tim leading the NRSC into 2026,” Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said in his own statement backing Scott.
ELECTION NIGHT WINNERS AND LOSERS: 2024 EDITION
Minority voters shifted toward Trump in 2024. (iStock)
The election will be held on Nov. 13 and decided via a secret ballot along with other Senate GOP leadership races.
Scott’s bid for the top NRSC role comes on the heels of the Republican Party and Trump seeing significant gains across the country with minorities in the 2024 elections.
As one of only four Black senators in the 118th Congress and the only Black Republican senator, Scott has made a variety of efforts to reach minority voters on behalf of the GOP.
In the last three months, he held a Black financial literacy event in North Carolina, an event on Black Opportunity Zones in Wisconsin, a Black pastor event in Michigan and school choice events in Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Chicago.
He also joined fellow Black Republican representatives Burgess Owens, R-Utah; Byron Donalds, R-Fla.; John James, R-Mich.; and Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, earlier in the year to launch a weekly video series dedicated to the voices of Black members of the GOP. The series was called “America’s Starting Five.”
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub
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