Connect with us

Politics

Opinion: Trump wants to rekindle his Kim Jong Un bromance, but North Korea has other suitors now

Published

on

Opinion: Trump wants to rekindle his Kim Jong Un bromance, but North Korea has other suitors now

To say that President-elect Donald Trump has a lot of plans for his second term would be a gross understatement. He has vowed to implement the largest deportation operation in American history, secure the U.S.-Mexico border and negotiate a peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia.

Yet for Trump, all of these items may be minor when compared to one other issue: resolving the North Korea nuclear conundrum. Taking Pyongyang’s nuclear program off the board is Trump’s proverbial white whale, a feat that none of his predecessors managed to accomplish. Members of Trump’s inner circle told Reuters in late November that the next president was already talking about restarting the personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that had begun during his first term.

Talk is one thing, reality another. If Trump enters office thinking he can easily resurrect his relationship with Kim, then he’s going to set himself up for disappointment. Resolving the North Korean nuclear issue was hard five years ago, but it will be even harder today.

During his first term, Trump was able to push for personal engagement with North Korea’s head of state despite resistance among his national security advisors. This was the right move at the time. After all, bottom-up attempts by the Bush and Obama administrations to negotiate with Pyongyang proved to be both laborious and unsuccessful.

After nearly a year of fire-breathing rhetoric and talk about a “bloody nose” strike that would scare Pyongyang into talks, Trump opted to gamble on direct diplomacy. This was partly because his other options — more economic sanctions or military action — ranged from ineffective to disastrous, and partly because the South Korean president at the time, Moon Jae-in, was able to convince Trump that a direct channel of communication to Kim might be the key to cementing a nuclear deal of historic importance.

Advertisement

Despite three Trump-Kim meetings, face-to-face diplomacy failed to produce anything over the long-term. While Trump managed to get North Korea to suspend missile tests for a year — no small accomplishment given its past activity — the flashy summitry ultimately crashed and burned. In the end, Trump and Kim, their personal chemistry notwithstanding, were unable to come to terms — Trump, pushed by his hawkish advisors, advocated for North Korea’s complete denuclearization; Kim, meanwhile, was only willing to demobilize his main plutonium research facility at Yongbyon.

U.S.-North Korea diplomacy has been dead ever since. The Biden administration’s overtures to Pyongyang over the last four years have been repeatedly slapped down, apparently a consequence of what the North Korean leadership views as a lack of seriousness on the part of Washington as well as U.S. attempts to solidify a trilateral military relationship between the United States, South Korea and Japan.

In other words, on Jan. 20, the perennial North Korean nuclear problem will be as thorny as ever. And probably thornier: Kim is far less desperate for a nuclear agreement and an end to U.S. sanctions now than he was during Trump’s first administration.

First, Kim hasn’t forgotten his previous meetings with Trump. He sees the summitry of 2018 and 2019 as a waste of time at best and a personal humiliation at worst. This shouldn’t be a surprise; the North Korean dictator staked significant capital on negotiating an agreement to lift U.S. sanctions and to normalize Pyongyang-U.S. relations. His entreaties failed on both accounts. Three summits later, U.S. sanctions remained intact and U.S.-North Korea relations remained in their usual acrimony.

Kim will be more cautious this time around. “We have already explored every possible avenue in negotiating with the U.S.,” he said in November, adding that the result had been more U.S. aggression. And in a December speech, he promised to deliver the “toughest … counteractions” against the U.S., an expression of his commitment to resisting what he perceives as a hostile bloc underwritten by Washington.

Advertisement

The geopolitical environment has evolved as well. Back in 2018-2019, North Korea was isolated, and the suspension of U.S. sanctions was seen as a critical to its economic growth.

But now Putin’s war in Ukraine has provided the Kim regime a golden opportunity to diversify its foreign relations away from China by cozying up to Moscow, not least by sending thousands of North Korean troops to the Ukraine-Russia front lines. Russia, which used to be a partner in the United States’ desire to denuclearize North Korean, is now using North Korea as a way to frustrate America’s grand ambitions in East Asia.

For Kim, the advantages of his relationship with Russia are equally clear: Putin needs arms and men; Kim needs cash and military technology. And thanks to Russia’s veto at the U.N. Security Council, additional sanctions are a pipe dream for the foreseeable future, while those on the books already are meekly enforced. As long as the Russia-North Korea relationship continues as its current pace, Trump will be hard pressed to bring the North Koreans back to the negotiating table.

None of this is to suggest that Trump shouldn’t try another diplomatic foray with North Korea. Regardless of the criticism he received at the time, Trump’s decision to shake things up and go straight to the source was an admirable attempt to manage an issue that has defied U.S. presidents for more than three decades.

Yet if Trump wants a second roll of the dice, he needs to keep a healthy dose of skepticism front-of-mind. Given the continued improvement of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, any agreement the United States signs with the Kim regime will be less impressive than it could have been in 2019 — assuming we get an agreement at all.

Advertisement

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs commentator for the Spectator.

Politics

Bracing for Trump, Mexico aims to roll out a 'panic app' for Mexican nationals being deported

Published

on

Bracing for Trump, Mexico aims to roll out a 'panic app' for Mexican nationals being deported

Hardly a day goes by here that Mexico’s president or one of her aides does not speak of some plan being devised in case President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his threats of mass deportations and punishing tariffs — testament to how vulnerable Mexico is to shifting policies in Washington.

The latest from Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum‘s administration is a “panic button” — an emergency cellphone application that will enable Mexican citizens fearing detention and deportation in the United States to alert diplomats and relatives of their plight.

Sheinbaum also says her government has bolstered staff at Mexico’s more than 50 consulates in the United States, adding advisors to provide legal counsel to those facing potential deportation.

Trump’s pronouncements have generated profound uncertainty among Mexican officials, business leaders on both side of the border and millions of Mexican immigrants in the United States.

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has spoken out against President-elect Donald Trump’s deportation threats.

Advertisement

(Fernando Llano / Associated Press)

Sheinbaum, who calls Mexican migrants “heroes,” opposes Trump’s mass-deportation plan but has been muted in her criticisms of Trump himself.

Mexican nationals who could face deportation “are not alone and will not be alone,” Mexico’s foreign minister, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, vowed last month, speaking to reporters during one of Sheinbaum’s daily morning news conferences.

According to Mexican government estimates, some 4.8 million Mexicans reside in the United States illegally, by far the largest number among any nationality. Some have resided in the north for decades and have U.S.-born children, own homes and run businesses.

Advertisement

Trump and his representatives have offered no comprehensive details on how his deportation plan will take shape. Some aides have spoken of prioritizing roundups of undocumented immigrants with criminal records and pending deportation orders — longtime targets of U.S. immigration enforcement.

The U.S. House on Tuesday passed a bill that would target for deportation immigrants who are in the country illegally and have been charged with nonviolent crimes.

And some Trump proxies have not ruled out expanded raids in workplaces and sweeps in immigrant communities.

It’s unclear if Sheinbaum and her government hold out any hope that Trump’s deportation threats — a central pillar of his campaign — can be averted. Their public posture is to try to convince Trump of the importance of Mexican workers to key U.S. industries, including agriculture, meatpacking and the hospitality sector. But Trump and his allies have shown little sympathy for that argument.

Vulnerable Mexican citizens “need to know that they have rights,” Sheinbaum told reporters. “You can’t just deport a person, detain them, take them to the border. There are a series of legal procedures that need to be followed.”

Advertisement

Formal deportation cases can take months, even years, to resolve before immigration judges.

A legal assistance program for Mexicans residing in the United States now includes more than 300 advisors across Mexico’s 53 U.S. consulates, the government says, and also receives voluntary support from consultants and law firms.

Some critics question whether the Mexican government’s preparations will be effective, or if they’re really meant to be.

“The panic button, the stuff with the consulates — it’s all a smokescreen to give the impression of doing something in response to Trump,” said Irineo Mujica, who heads the Pueblo Sin Fronteras rights group. “Basically, they are going to give in to whatever Trump wants.”

The so-called panic-button app, to be fully rolled out this month, would allow citizens to alert officials at the nearest Mexican Consulate — as well as previously selected family members — of enforcement action targeting them, officials say.

Advertisement

Questions remain about how the app will work, and when it will become widely available. It will be simple to use and designed to be utilized if someone is facing “imminent detention,” De la Fuente said. Some immigration lawyers in Texas have launched a similar initiative, albeit of a smaller scale, and it has proved an effective tool, the foreign minister said.

“If someone is detained, independent of their migratory status, the most important thing is that the consulate is notified,” said De la Fuente. “This guarantees that the consulate is advised and we can make a quick reaction.”

According to the State Department, foreign nationals detained in the United States must be advised of the option of having the closest consulate or embassy notified. Immigrant advocates say arrested migrants are often not told of this option.

An officer wears an ICE badge on a pair of jeans.

A deportation officer with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement conducts a briefing before an operation last month in the Bronx borough of New York.

(Julia Demaree Nikhinson / Associated Press)

Advertisement

People in immigration proceedings may hire attorneys, but they often cannot afford the fees — or may be unaware of how to go about finding counsel. Unlike criminal defendants, those detained for immigration violations have no right to court-appointed lawyers. Various studies have shown that having counsel greatly reduces the chances of someone being deported.

Mexican authorities, De la Fuente said, are also making “extensive efforts” to encourage compatriots in the United States with U.S.-born children to register their names and those of their children with consulates. One of the great fears of mass deportation is that sweeps could separate U.S.-citizen children from undocumented parents — or even result in the removal of U.S. citizen minors.

In Mexico, the migrant panic-button plan has been greeted with considerable skepticism. Some have noted that, in Mexico, authorities are often slow to respond to emergency calls reporting crimes or to the many fixed panic buttons in parks and other sites that are meant to summon police.

“Are Batman and Robin going to come to the rescue?” one person asked on social media after the government unveiled the app plan.

Also, many remain unconvinced that Mexican consulates — which, like other parts of the Mexican government, have seen budget cuts in recent years — will be much help in the face of sweeping deportations. Mujica said the consulates are often viewed with distrust by Mexican migrants. “They treat people like second-class citizens,” Mujica said.

Advertisement

Another element of Sheinbaum’s plan is to bolster aid for deportees removed to Mexican border cities and elsewhere in Mexico. “They will be received with social programs … and all the help they need,” Sheinbaum said, but she has provided few details.

Skeptics note that Mexican authorities have traditionally done little to assist Mexican nationals who are daily deported or otherwise repatriated to Mexico — beyond welcoming them and offering free or discounted bus fare back to their areas of origin.

Special correspondent Cecilia Sánchez Vidal in Mexico City contributed to this report.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

Video: Carter’s Coffin Transferred to Washington

Published

on

Video: Carter’s Coffin Transferred to Washington

new video loaded: Carter’s Coffin Transferred to Washington

transcript

transcript

Carter’s Coffin Transferred to Washington

Former President Jimmy Carter’s body was moved on Tuesday from his home state of Georgia to Washington, where it will lie in state in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol until Thursday.

“Jimmy Carter’s work and those works speak for him louder than any tribute we can offer.” “Whether he was in the White House or in his postpresidential years, as was discussed, President Carter was willing to roll up his own sleeves to serve and get the job done.”

Advertisement

Recent episodes in News Clips: Politics

Continue Reading

Politics

Trump trolls Canada again, shares map with country as part of US: 'Oh Canada!'

Published

on

Trump trolls Canada again, shares map with country as part of US: 'Oh Canada!'

President-elect Trump on Tuesday again suggested that Canada should be added as the U.S.’s 51st state, sharing maps showing Canada as part of the U.S.

Trump shared a pair of posts to his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday night — one with a map of the U.S. and Canada with “United States” written across the two countries and another post with the U.S. and Canada covered in an American Flag.

“Oh Canada!” he wrote in one post.

The incoming president has been pushing recently for Canada to be added to the U.S., including earlier on Tuesday.

TRUMP TROLLING CANADA AS 51ST STATE COULD BOOST DEMOCRATS WITH ‘BLUE-STATE BEHEMOTH’

Advertisement

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talk prior to a NATO round table meeting at The Grove hotel and resort in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, Dec. 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)

“Canada and the United States. That would really be something,” Trump said at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. “They should be a state.”

On Monday, the president-elect argued in a social media post that “many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State.”

WHAT TRUMP IS SAYING ABOUT CANADA BECOMING THE 51ST STATE

“The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Advertisement

“Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned. If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them,” he added. “Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!”

President-elect Trump and Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau

President-elect Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, left, CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images, right.)

Trudeau, who announced Monday that he will resign as Canadian prime minister once a replacement is chosen, said Tuesday there is no way Canada would join the U.S.

“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Trudeau wrote on the social media platform X. “Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partner.”

Trump has been trolling Canada in recent weeks, floating the idea of it becoming the 51st state and posting a doctored photo of him standing beside a Canadian flag on top of a mountain.

Trump at a campaign event

President-elect Donald Trump arrives to speak at a news conference at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Advertisement

The president-elect has also mocked Trudeau, repeatedly referring to him as “governor.” Additionally, Trump has threatened to impose massive tariffs on Canada.

Trump has also been pushing for Denmark to sell the North Atlantic island of Greenland to the U.S.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending