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News Analysis: Does the crisis in Ukraine foreshadow a broader war?

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The sights and sounds coming from Ukraine — the screams of air raid sirens, explosions, the rumbling of armored personnel carriers down rural roads — all taking place in the midst of Europe inevitably conjure reminiscences of World Conflict II.

However do additionally they foreshadow a broader conflict that may devour scores of nations?

World Conflict II, a savage battle fought throughout the globe from 1939 to 1945, gave delivery to NATO, a transatlantic alliance of the U.S. and main Western European nations. The alliance, shaped in 1949, has preserved peace and stability within the area, kind of, for the final seven a long time.

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Problem to NATO

Russia’s conflict on Ukraine, launched final week, poses the largest menace to NATO in current historical past.

Ukraine just isn’t a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Group, though it has expressed a want to affix. Earlier than he began his invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin had demanded that the alliance conform to by no means admit Ukraine.

The U.S. and its NATO allies rebuffed the demand, saying it was as much as particular person nations to resolve whether or not they needed to develop into members. It was NATO’s enlargement to incorporate different former Soviet republics that has most angered Putin and raised alarms within the Kremlin about Russia’s safety.

Broader conflict unlikely

Though leaders of NATO international locations have sought to sanction Putin and Russia over the invasion and have supplied navy help to Ukraine, President Biden has repeatedly emphasised that U.S. forces wouldn’t be deployed in Ukraine.

“Our forces will not be and won’t be engaged within the battle with Russia in Ukraine,” Biden stated Thursday on the White Home.

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Analysts and historians say the chance of U.S. forces participating in fight with Russians is extraordinarily low. That’s as a result of leaders of each international locations perceive the stakes concerned in such a battle. Russia and the U.S. have strong nuclear arsenals, and their leaders notice any miscalculation may rapidly spiral uncontrolled, with dire penalties for his or her populations and humanity.

“I can not think about any eventualities the place we get right into a conflict with Russia that aren’t fanciful, random, irresponsible hypothesis,” stated Simon Miles, a Chilly Conflict skilled and assistant professor at Duke College. “You couldn’t put that toothpaste again within the tube. It will simply have devastating penalties, such a battle.”

Article 5

The one approach analysts can foresee a conflict between the U.S. and Russia could be if Putin’s forces attacked a NATO nation. That might set off Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which stipulates an assault on one member is an assault on all. That will imply committing troops to fight to assist one other NATO member. It has been invoked only one time — after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist assaults on New York and the Pentagon.

For weeks, prime U.S. and European officers have reaffirmed their dedication to Article 5, a sign to Moscow that attacking Ukraine is a a lot completely different proposition than making an attempt to invade a NATO nation.

“Let me be clear: America’s dedication to Article 5 is ironclad,” Vice President Kamala Harris stated final week earlier than the invasion. On Thursday, Biden issued the identical pledge: “There is no such thing as a doubt — little question that the USA and each NATO ally will meet our Article 5 commitments, which says that an assault on one is an assault on all.”

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Consultants say that Putin and Russian leaders certainly bought that message. He is aware of that if he orders an assault on a former Soviet satellite tv for pc now in NATO (assume: Romania and Poland), he could be inviting severe retaliation.

What about errant missiles, miscalculations?

Even so, analysts say, there are considerations about what would possibly occur if an errant Russian airstrike or missile hits a NATO nation, the place the U.S. and its allies have been build up their forces in response to the Ukrainian invasion. They are saying such an incident could lead on that nation to invoke Article 5.

“Any transfer in opposition to a NATO nation now will deliver a far wider and extra harmful conflict,” stated Daniel Serwer, a battle administration skilled on the College of Superior Worldwide Research at Johns Hopkins College in Washington. “NATO has beefed up its forces on Russia’s periphery, the alternative of what Putin needed.”

Overseas coverage specialists famous that Putin may additionally not be as cautious as U.S. leaders. He may really feel emboldened by his foray into Ukraine and assault weak European international locations that aren’t NATO members, which may put his forces in nearer proximity to NATO’s.

The Russian autocrat has complained in regards to the small Baltic states becoming a member of the alliance, complicating his nation’s entry to the strategically essential Baltic Sea. He is likely to be tempted to invade these international locations, believing NATO’s different international locations wouldn’t be keen to commit forces to defend them. Though U.S. intelligence assessments of Putin’s intentions in Ukraine had been largely correct, they’ve incessantly did not divine his motivations and anticipate his actions.

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“All of it relies on how far Putin is keen to go,” stated Eddy Acevedo, a former official with the U.S. Company for Worldwide Growth who’s now a senior international coverage advisor to the Wilson Heart, a nonpartisan assume tank in Washington. “To this point, in predicting that, everybody has been off.”

Instances workers author Del Quentin Wilber contributed to this report.

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Hunter Biden attends pre-trial hearing in Delaware court on federal gun charges

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Hunter Biden attends pre-trial hearing in Delaware court on federal gun charges

Hunter Biden arrived at a Delaware court just before noon Friday for a pre-trial hearing on federal gun charges, after multiple failed attempts by the first son to have charges brought against him dismissed. 

Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty to federal gun charges in the U.S. District Court for Delaware, after Special Counsel David Weiss charged him with making a false statement in the purchase of a firearm; making a false statement related to information required to be kept by a licensed firearm dealer; and one count of possession of a firearm by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance. 

Judge Maryellen Noreika will preside over the trial, which is set to begin on June 3. 

HUNTER BIDEN PLEADS NOT GUILTY TO FEDERAL GUN CHARGES OUT OF SPECIAL COUNSEL DAVID WEISS’ PROBE

With all counts combined, the total maximum prison time for the charges could be up to 25 years. Each count carries a maximum fine of $250,000, and three years of supervised release. 

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According to the indictment, Hunter Biden bought a Coldt Cobra revolver on Oct. 12, 2018, and “knowingly made a false and fictitious written statement, intended and likely to deceive that dealer with respect to a fact material to the lawfulness of the sale of the firearm… certifying he was not an unlawful user of, and addicted to, any stimulant, narcotic drug, and any other controlled substance, when in fact, as he knew, that statement was false and fictitious.” 

Hunter Biden departs a House Oversight Committee meeting at Capitol Hill on January 10. On Friday, a judge denied a motion to throw out a federal gun case against him.  (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

HOUSE GOP CLAIMS HUNTER BIDEN LIED UNDER OATH MULTIPLE TIMES DURING CONGRESSIONAL DEPOSITION

The indictment also charges Hunter Biden for possessing that firearm — which was “shipped and transported in interstate commerce” — for nearly a week despite being addicted to narcotics.

Fox News first reported in 2021 that police had responded to an incident in 2018, when a gun owned by Hunter was thrown into a trash can outside a market in Delaware.

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A source with knowledge of the Oct. 23, 2018, police report told Fox News that it indicated that Hallie Biden, who is the widow of President Biden’s late son, Beau, and who was in a relationship with Hunter at the time, threw a gun owned by Hunter in a dumpster behind a market near a school.

HUNTER BIDEN TAX TRIAL POSTPONED TO SEPTEMBER

Hallie Biden may be required to testify during Hunter Biden’s trial. 

A firearm transaction report reviewed by Fox News indicated that Hunter purchased a gun earlier that month.

On the firearm transaction report, Hunter answered in the negative when asked if he was “an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance.”

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Hunter was discharged from the Navy in 2014 after testing positive for cocaine.

Meanwhile, Weiss also brought federal tax charges against Hunter Biden in U.S. District Court for the Central District of California. 

IRS WHISTLEBLOWER SHAPLEY SAID HE ‘COULD NO LONGER PURSUE’ HUNTER BIDEN SUGAR BROTHER KEVIN MORRIS DUE TO CIA

Biden pleaded not guilty to those charges — specifically, three felonies and six misdemeanors concerning $1.4 million in owed taxes that have since been paid. Weiss alleged a “four-year scheme” when the president’s son did not pay his federal income taxes from January 2017 to October 2020 while also filing false tax reports. 

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On Wednesday, Judge Mark Scarsi heard arguments during a pre-trial hearing in California. That criminal trial was scheduled for June 20, but Hunter Biden’s attorneys requested to delay the trial. 

Scarsi sided with Hunter Biden’s attorneys, and moved the tax trial from June 20 to September 5, when jury selection will begin. 

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Granderson: Bring on the cannabis cafes, California. Our nation needs them

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Granderson: Bring on the cannabis cafes, California. Our nation needs them

More Americans now consume marijuana on a daily basis than drink alcohol every day, according to a recent study.

That’s welcome news for an industry that has been unfairly demonized by opportunistic politicians since the days of Nixon. The findings — based on data gathered between 1979 and 2022— are consistent with the wave of decriminalization under state laws, notably with California’s Proposition 215 back in 1996.

Opinion Columnist

LZ Granderson

LZ Granderson writes about culture, politics, sports and navigating life in America.

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After the election that year, a law professor at Loyola was quoted in the Los Angeles Times as saying “this may be the baby boomers taking control.”

It wasn’t the boomers prevailing, but pragmatism.

About 1.3 million people in the U.S. are in state prisons. The most common reason for incarceration? Drug-related crimes. Given how much the country with the highest prison population loves pot, it makes sense to stop throwing people in jail for doing weed.

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Today the only states where cannabis is totally illegal are Idaho, Kansas, South Carolina and Wyoming. Earlier this month President Biden announced plans to reclassify pot as a less dangerous drug.

In short: “Just say no” is dead. Long live “pass the dutchie ’pon the left-hand side.”

The next important step in having policy actually reflect society would be for Gov. Gavin Newsom to sign the “munchie bill” that’s likely to be headed his way soon.

Last year Assembly Bill 374 — which would make it legal for dispensaries to become cafes and offer food as well as host live events — passed the Assembly 66-9 and the Senate 33-3.

Surprisingly, Newsom vetoed the bipartisan bill in October, citing concerns about providing a smoke-free work environment for employees. That seems nonsensical, considering that it is already legal to consume marijuana in California dispensaries. AB 374 would have just made it possible to buy a bag of chips while you do it.

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Marijuana cafes have existed in Amsterdam since the 1970s. Last summer I spent a few hours listening to music and eating homemade desserts at the first marijuana cafe in North America. Fittingly called New Amsterdam Cafe, the popular hangout opened in Vancouver in 1998 and is as chill as Issa Rae’s Hilltop Coffee.

However, vibes are not the only reasons Assemblymember Matt Haney (D-San Francisco) introduced AB 374. For him it’s also a matter of fairness and trying to level the playing field.

“Small businesses have to follow every rule, and yet you’re telling them they can’t adapt and innovate and offer something people want,” he said. “The ones who follow the rules should be able to offer an experience. People pay a lot to sit in a winery. We have cigar lounges. This is really no different.”

Despite law enforcement’s best efforts, illegal pot is estimated to have pulled in more than $8 billion in 2020 compared with $4 billion for legal. However, it’s the small-business owners who also have the burden of taxes, regulations and fines. All of which eats away at profits and businesses’ ability to grow. Haney said his proposal not only would allow small business owners to diversify their income stream, but also would encourage people to come out of their post-pandemic cocoons and socialize again.

California began liberating cannabis culture in 1996. It’s only right the state continues to correct a narrative that was born not from science but from President Nixon’s prejudice. It’s because of that cloud hanging over cannabis that advocates of decriminalization had to sweeten the deal for voters by promising a financial windfall for the state, which of course is why legal pot is ridiculously overtaxed.

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Haney said he knows the cafes won’t solve all of the problems that dispensary owners face because of competition from the black market, but it would at least provide owners with more ways to make money. Haney said he worked with both Newsom’s office and the Department of Cannabis Control before reintroducing the bill. He said the new version, AB 1775, addresses the governor’s concern for the work environment, and it also has union support. It recently passed the Assembly 49-4 and is headed to the Senate.

My hope is that the munchie bill meets Newsom’s approval. With proper ventilation for employees and customers alike, marijuana cafes could provide local artists with new venues and add another branch of tourism.

“I’m one of the younger legislators, and I see how excited my friends are,” 42-year-old Haney told me. “I have a couple of colleagues who represent suburban districts and one came to me and said, ‘All the suburban moms are excited about your cannabis cafe bill.’ Post-pandemic, it’s been hard to get people to get out, and I think this just makes sense.”

It really does.

@LZGranderson

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Trump’s Pattern of Sowing Election Doubt Intensifies in 2024

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Trump’s Pattern of Sowing Election Doubt Intensifies in 2024

Former President Donald J. Trump has baselessly and publicly cast doubt about the fairness of the 2024 election about once a day, on average, since he announced his candidacy for president, according to an analysis by The New York Times.

Though the tactic is familiar — Mr. Trump raised the specter of a “rigged” election in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, too — his attempts to undermine the 2024 contest are a significant escalation.

A line chart shows the number of times Donald J. Trump cast doubt on the fairness or integrity of the election during the 2016, 2020, and 2024 election cycles. The line for 2024 shows that Trump started casting doubt months earlier during this election cycle and has made hundreds more statements than in past elections. Three videos on the chart show early instances of Trump casting doubt, in 2016, 2019 and 2022.

Mr. Trump first raised questions about the 2016 election in August of that year, about 100 days before the election.

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He did so earlier — and more frequently — before the 2020 election.

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But in the 2024 cycle, the falsehoods have been baked in since Mr. Trump announced his candidacy, almost two years before Election Day. They show no signs of subsiding.

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Mr. Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election had historic consequences. The so-called “Big Lie” — Mr. Trump’s false claim that the election was stolen from him — led to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol and two of four criminal indictments against Mr. Trump, as well as his second impeachment.

But Mr. Trump had planted seeds of doubt among his followers long before Election Day, essentially setting up a no-lose future for himself: Either he would prevail, or the election would be rigged.

He has never given up that framing, which no evidence supports, even well after the end of his presidency. And as he seeks to return to the White House, the same claim has become the backbone of his campaign.

Long before announcing his candidacy, Mr. Trump and his supporters had been falsely claiming that President Biden was “weaponizing” the Justice Department to target him. But it took until March of last year for Mr. Trump to settle on a new accusation: that the multiple legal challenges related to Mr. Trump’s business and political activities constituted a “new way of cheating” in order to “interfere” in the 2024 election. He has made versions of that accusation more than 350 times.

“This is a rigged deal, just as the 2020 election was rigged, and we can’t let them get away with it,” Mr. Trump said on Nov. 18, 2022, three days after announcing his 2024 candidacy. His comments were in response to Attorney General Merrick B. Garland’s appointment of a special counsel to supervise the Justice Department’s criminal investigations related to the events leading up to the Jan. 6 riot and Mr. Trump’s decision to keep classified documents at his Florida resort.

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By last summer, Mr. Trump had honed the language and made it a staple of his stump speech: “They rigged the presidential election of 2020, and we’re not going to allow them to rig the presidential election of 2024.”

The Times has documented more than 500 campaign events, social media posts and interviews during the 2024 cycle in which Mr. Trump falsely accused Democrats or others of trying to “rig,” “cheat,” “steal” or otherwise “influence” the next election — or of having done so in 2020.

‘Election interference’ is Trump’s choice accusation in 2024 cycle

Mr. Trump has adapted the specifics of his accusations with each of the three election cycles. But in each case, his pattern of discourse has followed the same contours. He sows doubt about the legitimacy of the election, and then begins to capitalize on that doubt by alluding to not necessarily accepting the election results — unless, of course, he wins.

This rhetorical strategy — heads, I win; tails, you cheated — is a beloved one for Mr. Trump that predates even his time as a presidential candidate. He called the Emmy Awards “a con game” after his television show “The Apprentice” failed to win in 2004 and 2005. And before he officially became the Republican presidential nominee in 2016, he began to float the possibility that the primary contest was, as he said, “rigged and boss controlled.”

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By May of that year, Mr. Trump spoke plainly about why he had stashed the argument away. “You’ve been hearing me say it’s a rigged system,” he said, “but now I don’t say it anymore because I won.”

Late that summer, with his sights set on the November general election, Mr. Trump tested out a new line, contending that “the media” was “rigging” the election in favor of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. His assertions intensified in October after a recording surfaced of him speaking in vulgar terms about women.

“I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election — if I win,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in 2016, three weeks before Election Day. And though he would end up winning the Electoral College and the presidency, his failure to secure the popular vote led him to form a Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity to “prove” that rampant voter fraud was to blame.

In December 2019, well into Mr. Trump’s re-election campaign, the Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives impeached him, saying he used the levers of government to solicit election assistance from Ukraine in the form of investigations to discredit Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump subsequently said that Democrats were using the “impeachment hoax” to “interfere” in the election.

The Covid-19 pandemic gave him a new rallying cry, centered on election integrity: Mail-in ballots were “dangerous,” “fraught with fraud” and were being used to “steal” and “rig” the election, he said.

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About six weeks before Election Day in 2020, Mr. Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. “We want to make sure that the election is honest, and I’m not sure that it can be,” Mr. Trump said.

This time, it was half a year before Election Day 2024 — and after more than a year of pushing the “election interference” line about the criminal charges against him and repeatedly warning that Democrats are “cheating” — that Mr. Trump again placed conditions on his acceptance of election results.

“If everything’s honest, I’ll gladly accept the results,” he said in a May 1 interview with The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.”

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