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Iowa's Republican caucuses tonight will show the strength of Trump's grip on the GOP

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Iowa's Republican caucuses tonight will show the strength of Trump's grip on the GOP

Barring an immense polling error, former President Trump will win Monday night’s Iowa caucuses.

But the results will offer clues about whether Trump still has an iron grip on his party.

Will Trump win by an overwhelming margin, as polling has suggested he will? Or will he win more narrowly than expected, failing to meet the high bar he has set for himself?

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Who will come in second? Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are battling for the silver medal. Whoever comes in second will have bragging rights — and attract more attention from journalists and donors — ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary.

DeSantis and Haley have each argued that they are the true GOP alternative to the former president. A strong showing here could buttress one of their cases. Conversely, a poor showing could force one or the other to end their bid. DeSantis, who has invested heavily in Iowa, visiting all 99 of the state’s counties, is particularly at risk if he loses badly.

In a Des Moines Register poll released Saturday, Trump had the support of 48% of likely caucus-goers, while Haley had 20%, DeSantis 16% and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy 8%.

At one point, GOP leaders predicted turnout for Monday’s caucuses could exceed the record-breaking 187,000 people who participated in the 2016 Republican caucuses.

But the bitterly cold weather and nearly two feet of snow that has blanketed the state could suppress turnout. Even in metropolitan areas like Des Moines, some roads remained icy on Monday; conditions are much worse in more rural parts of the state. The high on Monday is minus-2, and the temperature is expected to feel like minus-32 Monday night once the wind chill is factored in.

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Republicans argued that Iowans are hearty and know how to deal with the unprecedented caucus weather.

“This is truly one of the worst that we’ve ever had,” said six-term former Gov. Terry Branstad, who also served as Trump’s ambassador to China. “But we have the equipment, and they’ll clear the roads. It’s going to be very cold, but Iowans know how to handle that.”

Unlike a primary, in which voters cast ballots throughout the day or even in advance, caucuses take place in person and at a set time. Iowans will gather at 7 p.m. at 1,657 precincts around the state, listen to speeches from the candidates’ supporters and then cast their votes for their choice.

(Democrats are not holding a presidential caucus Monday night after so badly flubbing the process in 2020 that no official winner was ever formally determined.)

The top three GOP candidates have been setting expectations and on Monday were all trying to lower them.

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Trump’s strong showing in the polls and crowing about his popularity in the state could come back to bite him if he doesn’t break 50% in the caucuses.

On Sunday, the former president urged his voters not to be complacent and said he was worried that “it’s nasty out there.”

“You can’t sit home,” he said in Indianola, adding jokingly, “If you’re sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.”

Iowa is the foundation of DeSantis’ campaign, and his supporters have boasted of a strong on-the-ground organization to prod voters to the caucuses.

He was defiant in the lead-up to the caucuses.

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“They can throw a blizzard at us, and we are going to fight,” he told supporters in West Des Moines on Saturday. “They can throw windchill at us and we are going to fight. They can throw media narratives at us, and we are going to fight. They can throw fake polls at us, and we are going to fight.”

Haley’s campaign is stronger in New Hampshire, but her Iowa numbers have risen in recent polls. She lagged in building a ground game here, but she received the backing of a group linked to the Koch brothers that claims to have a strong on-the-ground organization.

“[M]y expectation for myself is to come out strong in Iowa, to come out strong in New Hampshire, and to come out strong in South Carolina,” Haley told Fox News after rallying supporters in Ankeny last week. “… we’re not going to know what strong looks like until we see what the results are.”

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Video: U.S. ‘Accelerating’ Military Assault in Iran, Hegseth Says

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Video: U.S. ‘Accelerating’ Military Assault in Iran, Hegseth Says

new video loaded: U.S. ‘Accelerating’ Military Assault in Iran, Hegseth Says

On the fifth day of the war in Iran, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. military operation was intensifying and that more warplanes were arriving in the region.

By Christina Kelso

March 4, 2026

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US submarine sinks Iranian warship by torpedo in a first since World War II

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US submarine sinks Iranian warship by torpedo in a first since World War II

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

A U.S. submarine sank a prized Iranian warship by torpedo, the first such sinking of an enemy ship since World War II, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Wednesday morning.

Hegseth joined Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine at the Pentagon to provide an update to reporters on “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran.

“An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters,” Hegseth said. “Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War Two. Like in that war, back when we were still the War Department. We are fighting to win.”

Caine said that an Iranian vessel was “effectively neutralized” in a Navy “fast attack” using a single Mark 48 torpedo. He added that the U.S. Navy achieved “immediate effect, sending the warship to the bottom of the sea.”

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WATCH HEGSETH’S ANNOUNCEMENT:

Hegseth said that the U.S. Navy sank the Iranian warship, the Soleimani. The flagship was named for Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian military officer who served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who the U.S. killed in a January 2020 drone strike during President Donald Trump’s first term.

“The Iranian Navy rests at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. Combat ineffective, decimated, destroyed, defeated. Pick your adjective,” Hegseth said. “In fact, last night we sunk their prize ship, the Soleimani. Looks like POTUS got him twice. Their navy, not a factor. Pick your adjective. It is no more.”

This map shows U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian naval forces as of March 1. (Fox News)

Hegseth also told reporters at the briefing that the U.S. and Israel will soon achieve “complete control” over Iranian airspace after Iran’s missile capabilities were drastically diminished in the four days of fighting.

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US ‘WINNING DECISIVELY’ AGAINST IRAN, WILL ACHIEVE ‘COMPLETE CONTROL’ OF AIRSPACE WITHIN DAYS, HEGSETH SAYS

“More bombers and more fighters are arriving just today and now, with complete control of the skies, we will be using 500 pound, one thousand pound and 2,000 pound laser-guided precision gravity bombs, of which we have a nearly unlimited stockpile,” he said.

The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Iran and dozens in Lebanon, while U.S. officials said six American troops were killed in a fatal drone strike in Kuwait.

Thousands of travelers have been left stranded across the Middle East.

This map shows security and travel updates for Americans regarding countries in the Middle East region. (Fox News)

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Caine told reporters that the U.S. military is helping thousands of Americans stranded in the Middle East after the U.S. State Department urged citizens to leave more than a dozen countries.

Fox News Digital’s Ashley Carnahan contributed to this report.

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Israel says fighter jet took down Iranian warplane, the first shootdown of its kind
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Sen. Padilla preps for Trump trying to seize control of elections via emergency order

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Sen. Padilla preps for Trump trying to seize control of elections via emergency order

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) is preparing for President Trump to declare a national emergency in order to seize control of this year’s midterm elections from the states, including by bracing his Senate colleagues for a vote in which they would be forced to either co-sign on the power grab or resist it.

In the wake of reporting last week that conservative activists with connections to the White House were circulating such an order, Padilla sent a letter to his Senate colleagues Friday stating that any such order would be “wildly illegal and unconstitutional,” and would no doubt face “extremely strict scrutiny” in the courts.

“Nevertheless, if the President does escalate his unprecedented assault on our democracy by declaring an election-related emergency, I will swiftly introduce a privileged resolution [and] force a vote in the Senate to terminate the fake emergency,” wrote Padilla, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Committee on Rules and Administration.

Padilla wrote that such an order — which could possibly “include banning mail-in voting, eliminating major voting registration methods, voter purges, and/or new document barriers for registering to vote and voting” — would clearly go beyond Trump’s authority.

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“Put simply, no President has the power under the Constitution or any law to take over elections, and no declaration or order can create one out of thin air,” Padilla wrote.

The same day Padilla sent his letter, Trump was asked whether he was considering declaring a national emergency around the midterms. “Who told you that?” he asked — before saying he was not considering such an order.

The White House referred The Times to that exchange when asked Tuesday for comment on Padilla’s letter.

If Trump did declare such an emergency, a “privileged resolution,” as Padilla proposed, would require the full Senate to vote on the record on whether or not to terminate it — forcing any Senate allies of the president to own the policy politically, along with him.

Experts say there is no evidence that U.S. elections are significantly affected or swung by widespread fraud or foreign interference, despite robust efforts by Trump and his allies for years to find it.

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Nonetheless, Trump has been emphatic that such fraud is occurring, particularly in blue states such as California that allow for mail-in ballots and do not have strict voter ID laws. He and others in his administration have asserted, again without evidence, that large numbers of noncitizen residents are casting votes and that others are “harvesting” ballots out of the mail and filling them out in bulk.

Soon after taking office, Trump issued an executive order purporting to require voters to show proof of U.S. citizenship before registering and barring the counting of mail-in ballots received after election day, but it was largely blocked by the courts.

Trump’s loyalist Justice Department sued red and blue states across the country for their full voter rolls, but those efforts also have largely been blocked, including in California. The FBI also raided an elections office in Georgia that has been the focus of Trump’s baseless claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him.

Trump is also pushing for the passage of the SAVE Act, a voter ID bill passed by the House, but it has stalled in the Senate.

In recent weeks, Trump has expressed frustration that his demands around voting security have not translated into changes in blue state policies ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, where his shrinking approval could translate into major gains for Democrats.

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Last month, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, “I have searched the depths of Legal Arguments not yet articulated or vetted on this subject, and will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!”

Then, last week, the Washington Post reported that a draft executive order being circulated by activists with ties to Trump suggests that unproven claims of Chinese interference in the 2020 election could be used as a pretext to declare an elections emergency granting Trump sweeping authority to unilaterally institute the changes he wants to see in state-run elections.

Election experts said the Constitution is clear that states control and run elections, not with the executive branch.

Democrats have widely denounced any federal takeover of elections by Trump. And some Republicans have expressed similar concerns, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who chairs the Senate rules committee.

In the Wall Street Journal last year, McConnell warned against Trump or any Republican president asserting sweeping authority to control elections, in part because Democrats would then be empowered to claim similar authority if and when they retake power.

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McConnell’s office referred The Times to that Journal opinion piece when asked about the circulating emergency order and Padilla’s resolution.

Padilla’s office said his resolution would be introduced in response to an emergency declaration by Trump, but hoped it wouldn’t be necessary.

“Instead of trying to evade accountability at the ballot box,” Padilla wrote, “the President should focus on the needs of Americans struggling to pay for groceries, health care, housing and other everyday needs and put these illegal and unconstitutional election orders in the trash can where they belong.”

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