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Iowa's Republican caucuses tonight will show the strength of Trump's grip on the GOP

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Iowa's Republican caucuses tonight will show the strength of Trump's grip on the GOP

Barring an immense polling error, former President Trump will win Monday night’s Iowa caucuses.

But the results will offer clues about whether Trump still has an iron grip on his party.

Will Trump win by an overwhelming margin, as polling has suggested he will? Or will he win more narrowly than expected, failing to meet the high bar he has set for himself?

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Who will come in second? Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are battling for the silver medal. Whoever comes in second will have bragging rights — and attract more attention from journalists and donors — ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary.

DeSantis and Haley have each argued that they are the true GOP alternative to the former president. A strong showing here could buttress one of their cases. Conversely, a poor showing could force one or the other to end their bid. DeSantis, who has invested heavily in Iowa, visiting all 99 of the state’s counties, is particularly at risk if he loses badly.

In a Des Moines Register poll released Saturday, Trump had the support of 48% of likely caucus-goers, while Haley had 20%, DeSantis 16% and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy 8%.

At one point, GOP leaders predicted turnout for Monday’s caucuses could exceed the record-breaking 187,000 people who participated in the 2016 Republican caucuses.

But the bitterly cold weather and nearly two feet of snow that has blanketed the state could suppress turnout. Even in metropolitan areas like Des Moines, some roads remained icy on Monday; conditions are much worse in more rural parts of the state. The high on Monday is minus-2, and the temperature is expected to feel like minus-32 Monday night once the wind chill is factored in.

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Republicans argued that Iowans are hearty and know how to deal with the unprecedented caucus weather.

“This is truly one of the worst that we’ve ever had,” said six-term former Gov. Terry Branstad, who also served as Trump’s ambassador to China. “But we have the equipment, and they’ll clear the roads. It’s going to be very cold, but Iowans know how to handle that.”

Unlike a primary, in which voters cast ballots throughout the day or even in advance, caucuses take place in person and at a set time. Iowans will gather at 7 p.m. at 1,657 precincts around the state, listen to speeches from the candidates’ supporters and then cast their votes for their choice.

(Democrats are not holding a presidential caucus Monday night after so badly flubbing the process in 2020 that no official winner was ever formally determined.)

The top three GOP candidates have been setting expectations and on Monday were all trying to lower them.

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Trump’s strong showing in the polls and crowing about his popularity in the state could come back to bite him if he doesn’t break 50% in the caucuses.

On Sunday, the former president urged his voters not to be complacent and said he was worried that “it’s nasty out there.”

“You can’t sit home,” he said in Indianola, adding jokingly, “If you’re sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.”

Iowa is the foundation of DeSantis’ campaign, and his supporters have boasted of a strong on-the-ground organization to prod voters to the caucuses.

He was defiant in the lead-up to the caucuses.

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“They can throw a blizzard at us, and we are going to fight,” he told supporters in West Des Moines on Saturday. “They can throw windchill at us and we are going to fight. They can throw media narratives at us, and we are going to fight. They can throw fake polls at us, and we are going to fight.”

Haley’s campaign is stronger in New Hampshire, but her Iowa numbers have risen in recent polls. She lagged in building a ground game here, but she received the backing of a group linked to the Koch brothers that claims to have a strong on-the-ground organization.

“[M]y expectation for myself is to come out strong in Iowa, to come out strong in New Hampshire, and to come out strong in South Carolina,” Haley told Fox News after rallying supporters in Ankeny last week. “… we’re not going to know what strong looks like until we see what the results are.”

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Less than half of DOGE-terminated contracts can be publicly tracked, only about a quarter of grants: watchdog

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Less than half of DOGE-terminated contracts can be publicly tracked, only about a quarter of grants: watchdog

With Elon Musk’s departure from the agency, there’s debate roiling over how effective the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE), has been in its mission.

In a report released just two days prior to Musk stepping down, financial watchdog Open The Books published a report finding it is likely impossible for the average American taxpayer to track the savings associated with the contracts and grants that were terminated by the DOGE team.

According to Open The Books’ analysis, which mined all the data published on DOGE’s official website, the average American taxpayer would likely only be able to confirm 42% of contracts and 27% of grants through an independent review of public federal spending databases.

“This doesn’t mean these targets aren’t real, it simply means it’s very hard for taxpayers who want to see additional savings to find proof and evidence of savings,” Open The Books points out in its analysis, shared in a report the group released Tuesday.

‘BUREAUCRATIC AND WASTEFUL’: DOGE SNIFFS OUT EYE-POPPING SPENDING ON BIDEN DEI EFFORTS IN KEY AGENCY 

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Elon Musk (LEFT) has been a controversial figure in the Trump administration, with many of his critics arguing he has wielded too much power in the Trump administration.  (Getty)

“Because taxpayers don’t have access to real-time transparency and a real-time look at the Treasury Payment System, it’s still too difficult for even a highly motivated Joe Taxpayer to confirm the savings claims DOGE is making,” the analysis, released ahead of Elon Musk stepping down from running the agency, continued. “It’s also far too easy for critics to sew [sic] doubt and confusion.”

DOGE says on its website that the group’s work up to this point has provided the American taxpayer with $175 billion in “estimated” savings from the elimination of contracts, grants and leases, as well as through renegotiations, fraud and improper payment deletion and other mechanisms. 

However, DOGE’s estimated savings have been contested by watchdog groups and budget experts. Such critics have posited that the inclusion of already canceled contracts, double-counting or misrepresentation of contract values, and the unaccounted cost burden that could be imposed on the government when it has to re-hire folks down the line, or revamp its productivity, due to DOGE cuts, have led to inflated savings estimates. 

Nate Malkus, a senior fellow at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, has accused DOGE of “overestimating contracts by a factor of two,” according to CBS News.

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ELON MUSK ‘DISAPPOINTED’ BY TRUMP’S SPENDING BILL, SAYS IT UNDERMINES WHAT DOGE IS DOING 

But White House spokesperson Harrison Fields told Fox News Digital that DOGE has produced “historic savings” for the American people.

“DOGE is working at record speed to cut waste, fraud, and abuse, producing historic savings for the American people,” Fields said. “The DOGE Wall of Receipts provides the latest and most accurate information following a thorough assessment, which takes time. Updates to the DOGE savings page will continue to be made promptly, and departments and agencies will keep highlighting the massive savings DOGE is achieving.”

falling cash photo illustration with US Capitol building

“DOGE’s job is to identify, not enact, savings targets. It’s up to Congress to do the heavy lifting,” Open The Books said in their analysis about DOGE savings.  (Fox News Digital)

“DOGE and Elon Musk have done the country an incredible service by identifying savings targets,” added Open The Books CEO John Hart. “Having worked on the last major deficit commission with the late Senator Tom Coburn, we would have been elated to have had Musk in our corner. Now it’s up to Congress to not only turn DOGE’s recommendations into durable savings but to go beyond DOGE’s scope and truly tackle our long-term debt and deficit crisis.”

Open The Books highlighted two “common sense” standards to help establish an “intellectually honest” approach to understanding the true impact of government cuts, such as those being recommended by DOGE.

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The first is the “durable standard,” which asks whether a proposed cut can be easily reversed.

OBAMA-NOMINATED JUDGE ALLOWS LAWSUIT TARGETING MUSK’S ROLE WITH DOGE TO PROCEED, DROPS CLAIMS AGAINST TRUMP

“Describing something as ‘durable’ does not mean it is permanent or irreversible; it simply means it is hard to reverse,” the Open The Books’ analysis stated. “The most durable budget cut in our constitutional system would be passed by Congress, signed into law by the president and be clearly constitutional, or unassailable in a court challenge. Budget cuts become less durable when they lack any of these three elements.”

The second is called a “duty standard,” which illuminates the power behind certain cuts based on who is trying to impose them.

“In our constitutional system, the founders gave the job of budget savings to three branches but primarily to Congress,” Open The Books points out. “DOGE’s job is to identify, not enact, savings targets. It’s up to Congress to do the heavy lifting. And We the People have a responsibility to be informed and hold our elected officials accountable.”

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WHITE HOUSE SENDING $9.4B DOGE CUTS PACKAGE TO CONGRESS NEXT WEEK

Elon Musk shows off black shirt with all caps white DOGE lettering

White House Senior Advisor Elon Musk walks to the White House after landing in Marine One on the South Lawn with U.S. President Donald Trump (not pictured) on Mar. 9, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

Open The Books ultimately concluded that due to various limitations associated with publicly available data on government spending and revenue, in particular a lack of real-time access to the government’s Treasury Payment System, it is still too difficult for even the most motivated average American citizen to either confirm, or deny, the savings claimed by DOGE.

Elon Musk officially stepped down from his role as DOGE chief Thursday evening, as his position of “special government employee” in the Trump administration was limited by law to a few months. Amid the transition, Musk criticized Republicans’ spending bill that was passed ahead of Memorial Day in the House, indicating he was “disappointed” it would increase the federal deficit. 

 

“I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,” Musk told CBS News in an interview that will air in full on June 1.

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Supreme Court sharply limits environmental impact statements in victory for developers

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Supreme Court sharply limits environmental impact statements in victory for developers

The Supreme Court on Thursday sharply limited the reach of environmental impact statements in a victory for developers.

The justices said these claims of the potential impact on the environment have been used too often to delay or block new projects.

“A 1970 legislative acorn has grown over the years into a judicial oak that has hindered infrastructure development under the guise of just a little more process. A course correction of sorts is appropriate,” said Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, speaking for the court.

He said procedural law has given judges and environmentalists too much authority to hinder or prevent development, he said.

“Fewer projects make it to the finish line. Indeed, fewer projects make it to the starting line. Those that survive often end up costing much more than is anticipated or necessary,” he said. “And that in turn means fewer and more expensive railroads, airports, wind turbines, transmission lines, dams, housing developments, highways, bridges, subways, stadiums, arenas, data centers, and the like. And that also means fewer jobs, as new projects become difficult to finance and build in a timely fashion.”

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The decision could loom large in California and the West because the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has taken a broad view of environmental protection and the scope of impact statements.

The National Environmental Policy Act of 1970s was the first of a series of landmark environmental laws. It required federal agencies to prepare a report assessing the likely impact of projects that will be funded or approved by the government.

“The goal of the law is to inform agency decision-making, not to paralyze it,” Kavanaugh said.

In a unanimous decision, the high court ruled for the developers of a proposed 88-mile railroad in northeastern Utah, a spur line which could carry crude oil that would be refined along the Gulf Coast.

The project needed the approval of the U.S. Surface Transportation Board which produced 3,600 pages of analysis on the potential impact.

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In blocking the proposal, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals cited its potential to spur more drilling for oil in Utah and more pollution along the Gulf Coast. The judges said these “upstream” and “downstream” impacts of the railroad must be considered before the new rail line is approved.

Seven counties that favored the development appealed to the Supreme Court and argued that the potential environment impact should be limited to the building of the railroad itself.

Kavanaugh and the court agreed. “The board did not need to evaluate potential environmental impacts of the separate upstream and downstream projects,” he said.

The court’s three liberals — Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson — concurred in the decision but did not sign on to Kavanaugh’s opinion.

Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, a Colorado native who is friends with some of the leading developers, did not participate in the decision.

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Musk officially steps down from DOGE after wrapping work streamlining government

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Musk officially steps down from DOGE after wrapping work streamlining government

Elon Musk is beginning the process of stepping down from his role as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO posted on X on Wednesday night that his time as a special government employee is coming to an end and thanked President Donald Trump for the opportunity to cut down on wasteful spending.

“The ⁦‪@DOGE‬⁩ mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government,” Musk wrote in his post. The White House confirmed to FOX that Musk’s post is accurate and offboarding will begin Wednesday night.

Musk has been the public face of DOGE since Trump signed an executive order establishing the office on Jan. 20. DOGE has since ripped through federal government agencies in a quest to identify and end government overspending, corruption and fraud.

ELON MUSK SAYS HE ‘FULLY ENDORSES’ TRUMP AFTER GUNFIRE AT PENNSYLVANIA RALLY

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Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has officially stepped down from his role helping lead DOGE, which had long been the plan as a special government employee. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

He was officially hired as a “special government employee,” which is a role Congress created in 1962 that allows the executive or legislative branch to hire temporary employees for specific short-term initiatives.

Special government employees are permitted to work for the federal government for “no more than 130 days in a 365-day period,” according to data from the Office of Government Ethics. Musk’s 130-day timeframe, beginning on Inauguration Day, was set to run dry on May 30.

DOGE is a temporary cross-departmental organization that was established to slim down and streamline the federal government. The group itself will be dissolved on July 4, 2026, according to Trump’s executive order.

Musk and Trump have both previously previewed that Musk’s role was temporary and would end in the spring.

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“You, technically, are a special government employee and you’re supposed to be 130 days,” Fox News’ Bret Baier asked Musk during an exclusive interview with Musk and DOGE team members in April. “Are you going to continue past that or do you think that’s what you’re going to do?” 

MUSK NOT LEAVING YET, WRAPPING UP WORK ON SCHEDULE ONCE ‘INCREDIBLE WORK AT DOGE IS COMPLETE’: WHITE HOUSE

Musk

Elon Musk was hired as a special government employee, which only permits 130 days of employment, when he was chosen to lead DOGE. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

“I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars within that timeframe,” Musk responded. 

Trump hinted at Musk’s departure in comments to reporters on March 31 when he was asked if he wants Musk to remain in a government role for longer than the predetermined 130 days.

“I think he’s amazing. But I also think he’s got a big company to run,” Trump said in March. “And so at some point he’s going to be going back.”

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“I’d keep him as long as I can keep him,” Trump said. “He’s a very talented guy. You know, I love very smart people. He’s very smart. And he’s done a good job,” the president added. “DOGE is, we’ve found numbers that nobody can even believe.”

More recently, Musk said during a Tesla earnings call on April 22 that he will take a step back from his work as DOGE’s leader. 

DOGE CHAIN OF COMMAND REVEALED IN COURT FILING, SHOWING MUSK IS NOT THE BOSS

“I think starting probably in next month, May, my time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly,” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings conference call. “I’ll have to continue doing it for, I think, the remainder of the president’s term just to make sure the waste and fraud that we stopped does not come roaring back, which it will do if it has the chance. So I think I’ll continue to spend, you know, a day or two per week on government matters for as long as the president would like me to do so and as long as it is useful.”

Elon Musk jumps on state as he joins former president Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Elon Musk jumps on state as he joins former president Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

“But starting next month,” he added, “I’ll be allocating far more of my time to Tesla now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency is done.”

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Amid Musk’s work with DOGE, Democrats and activists have staged protests against the tech billionaire and his companies, including working to tank Tesla stocks. 

Musk has been the public face of DOGE for months, but is not an employee of the United States DOGE Service and does not report to the acting DOGE chief, according to a court filing in March that shed additional light on the internal workings of the office.

WHO IS DOGE’S NEWLY IDENTIFIED ADMINISTRATOR AMY GLEASON? ‘WORLD-CLASS TALENT’

“Elon Musk does not work at USDS. I do not report to him, and he does not report to me. To my knowledge, he is a Senior Advisor to the White House,” Amy Gleason, the acting administrator of DOGE, wrote in a declaration included in a court filing.

Donald Trump

President Trump has spoken highly of Elon Musk’s work with DOGE since he was chosen to lead the new agency on Jan. 20. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Gleason previously worked for the United States Digital Service, which was founded in 2014 by former President Barack Obama as a technology office within the Executive Office of the President. Trump signed an executive order in January that renamed the office to the United States DOGE Service, establishing DOGE. 

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Though Musk has been the public face of DOGE, he “has no actual or formal authority to make government decisions himself” and is working as a senior advisor to the president, a White House official said in a separate court filing back in February.

SENATE REPUBLICAN DOGE LEADER JONI ERNST FACES FIRST DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER IN 2026 RACE

Musk emerged as an ardent supporter of Trump at the height of the election cycle over the summer, officially endorsing Trump after the first assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024.

Trump holds fist

President Trump survived an assassination attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania in July. (Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images)

“I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” Musk posted to X shortly after the attempt, accompanied by footage of Trump raising a fist and shouting “Fight, fight, fight!” after he was left bloodied by the assassination attempt. 

Musk hosted Trump on X for an expansive interview while on the campaign trail 

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Across Musk’s tenure as a special government employee, Trump has praised the tech billionaire for his efforts to streamline the government and cut it of overspending, including during his first address to a joint session of Congress since his second inauguration.

 

“Thank you, Elon. He’s working very hard. He didn’t need this. He didn’t need this. Thank you very much. We appreciate it. Everybody here, even this side, appreciates it, I believe. They just don’t want to admit that,” Trump said in March during his address, quipping that Democrats were even grateful for Musk’s work at DOGE. 

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