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Estimates Imply That Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

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Estimates Imply That Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

President Trump has said that his aim in imposing tariffs is to force companies to move production back to the United States. If manufacturers make their goods in America, he argues, they won’t have to pay the tariffs.

But the latest revenue projections proffered by his administration call into question what Mr. Trump wants to achieve with the tariffs he is imposing on both allies and adversaries.

Peter Navarro, a senior trade adviser to Mr. Trump, told Fox News on Sunday that the sweeping tariffs the president was imposing would raise about $6 trillion over the next decade, with those revenues going toward funding “the biggest tax cut in American history for the middle class.”

While he insisted that Americans would not bear the cost, those estimates imply that the burden of tariffs could fall heavily on consumers, rather than encouraging companies to reshore supply chains.

Trade experts have argued that using tariffs to raise revenue directly contradicts the goal of using tariffs to bring factories back to the United States. In order for the government to take in so much revenue, Americans would need to continue buying substantial amounts of imported products.

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Mr. Navarro said the administration would also lower costs for Americans by bringing down gas prices. Trump officials have said that would be accomplished by drilling for more oil in the United States.

“Tariffs are tax cuts, tariffs are jobs, tariffs are national security,” Mr. Navarro said. “Tariffs are great for America.”

Mr. Trump is expected to introduce global tariffs on other countries this week, and has also repeatedly talked about replacing taxes with tariffs. But the U.S. government raises about $2 trillion from individual and corporate income taxes. In 2024, the United States imported $4 trillion of products, meaning tariffs would have to be extremely high to replace tax revenue.

Calculations by economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggested that tariff revenue could peak at about $780 billion annually with a 50 percent tariff on all imports. After that, the amount of revenue would shrink. That’s because when tariffs reach a certain level, consumers tend to stop buying imported products, meaning the revenue they generate decreases.

The Yale Budget Lab estimated that the auto tariffs scheduled to go into effect on Thursday could raise $600 billion to $650 billion between 2026 and 2035. But those prices would fall heavily on consumers. U.S. vehicle prices would rise by 13.5 percent on average, the equivalent of an additional $6,400 for the price of an average new 2024 car. Every American household would pay an extra $500 to $600 as a result of the tariffs, the group estimated.

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Mr. Trump campaigned on reducing inflation that plagued the United States and other countries during the Biden administration.

Mr. Navarro said that tariffs had led to price stability and prosperity in Trump’s first term and would again. “Trust in Trump,” he said.

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Trump launches ‘Genesis Mission’ to supercharge US scientific AI innovation

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Trump launches ‘Genesis Mission’ to supercharge US scientific AI innovation

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President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday aimed at bolstering U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives as it unveiled its new “Genesis Mission” to accelerate AI use for scientific purposes. 

The “Genesis Mission” will direct the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and their national labs to work with private companies to share federal data sets, advanced supercomputing capabilities, and scientific facilities. 

TRUMP, MCCORMICK TO UNVEIL $90B ENERGY AND INNOVATION INVESTMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA

“The private sector has launched artificial intelligence at huge scale, but with a little bit different focus – on language, on business, on processes, on consumer services,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told reporters Monday. “What we’re doing here is just pivoting those efforts to focus on scientific discovery, engineering advancements. And to do that, you need the data sets that are contained across our national labs.” 

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Vice President JD Vance, left, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, right, in Greenland while honoring the 55th anniversary of Earth Day 2025.  (Reuters)

Additionally, the executive order instructs the Department of Energy and national labs to create an integrated platform aimed at expediting scientific discovery, in an attempt to connect AI capability with scientists, engineers, technical staff, and the labs’ scientific instruments, according to a White House official.

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Trump hinted an effort like this was in the works during the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum Wednesday in Washington, where he said the U.S. would work “to build the largest, most powerful, most innovative AI ecosystem in the world.”

US President Donald Trump during the US-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025.  (Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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The effort comes after Trump issued an AI policy document called “Winning the Race: America’s AI Action Plan” in July. The document laid out a framework focused on accelerating AI innovation, ensuring the U.S. is the leader in international AI diplomacy and security, and using the private sector to help build up and operate AI infrastructure. 

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Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also currently considering other executive orders pertaining to AI, and more executive orders could be on the horizon. 

For example, Fox News Digital previously reported that the White House was gearing up an executive order instructing the Justice Department to sue states that adopt their own laws regulating AI. 

The Trump administration is prepping an executive order that would instruct the Justice Department to sue states that adopt their own laws that would regulate AI.  (Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images, left, and MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images, right.)

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Trump appeared to address the initiative at the U.S-Saudi Investment Forum as well, claiming that a series of AI regulations imposed at the state level would prove a “disaster.”

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“And we are going to work it so that you’ll have a one approval process to not have to go through 50 states,” Trump said. 

Fox News’ Amanda Macias and Dennis Collins contributed to this report. 

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Deaths in ICE custody raise serious questions, lawmakers say

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Deaths in ICE custody raise serious questions, lawmakers say

Southern California lawmakers are demanding answers from U.S. Homeland Security officials following the deaths of two Orange County residents and nearly two dozen others while in federal immigration custody.

In a letter Friday to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, U.S. Reps. Dave Min (D-Irvine) and Judy Chu (D-Pasadena) pointed to the deaths of 25 people so far this year while being held by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The number of in-custody deaths has reached an annual record since the agency began keeping track in 2018.

Two Mexican immigrants — who had long made their homes in Orange County and were sent to the Adelanto ICE Processing Center north of Hesperia — were among the deaths.

“These are not just numbers on a website, but real people — with families, jobs, and hopes and dreams — each of whom died in ICE custody,” the lawmakers wrote. “The following cases illustrate systemic patterns of delayed treatment, neglect, and failure to properly notify families.”

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Ismael Ayala-Uribe, 39, died Sept. 22 about a month after being apprehended while working at the Fountain Valley Auto Wash, where he had worked for 15 years, according to a GoFundMe post by his family.

He had lived in Westminster since he was 4 years old, and had previously been protected from deportation under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, known as DACA. The Times previously reported that his application for continued protection was not renewed in 2016.

Ayala-Uribe’s relatives and members of Congress have alleged that he was denied proper medical care after being taken into ICE custody in August. Adelanto detention staff members were aware of his medical crisis, according to internal emails obtained by The Times. But Ayala-Uribe initially was taken back to his Adelanto dorm room, where he waited for another three days before being moved to Victor Valley Global Medical Center in Victorville.

ICE officials acknowledged that Ayala-Uribe died at the Victorville hospital while waiting for surgery for an abscess on his buttock. The suspected cause of the sore was not disclosed.

Ayala-Uribe’s cause of death is under investigation, ICE has previously said.

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A second man — Gabriel Garcia-Aviles, 56, who lived near Costa Mesa — died Oct. 23, about a week after being detained.

ICE said Garcia-Aviles was arrested Oct. 14 in Santa Ana by the U.S. Border Patrol for an outstanding warrant, and eventually sent to the Adelanto center. ICE said in a previous statement that he was only at the Adelanto facility for a few hours before he was taken to the Victorville hospital for “suspected alcohol withdrawal symptoms.”

His condition rapidly worsened.

The deaths have focused attention on the treatment of detained immigrants as well as long-standing concerns about medical care inside Adelanto, one of the largest federal immigration detention centers in California. The situation raises broader concerns about whether immigration detention centers throughout the country are equipped to care for the deluge of people rounded up since President Trump prioritized mass deportations as part of his second-term agenda.

“These deaths raise serious questions about ICE’s ability to comply with basic detention standards, medical care protocols, and notification requirements, and underscore a pattern of gross negligence that demands immediate accountability,” Min and Chu wrote in the letter to Noem and Todd M. Lyons, the acting director of ICE.

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The letter was signed by 43 other lawmakers, including Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach), J. Luis Correa (D-Santa Ana), John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove) and Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles).

An ICE representative did not immediately respond to an email Saturday seeking comment.

The lawmakers stressed the need to treat the immigrants with humanity.

The lawmakers said Garcia-Aviles had lived in the U.S. for three decades. His family did not learn of his dire medical condition until “he was on his deathbed.” Family members drove to the hospital to find him “unconscious, intubated, and . . . [with] dried blood on his forehead” as well as “a cut on his tongue … broken teeth and bruising on his body.”

“We never got the chance to speak to him anymore and [the family] never was called to let us know why he had been transferred to the hospital,” his daugher wrote on a GoFundMe page, seeking help to pay for his funeral costs. “His absence has left a hole in our hearts.”

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Rubio claims ‘tremendous amount of progress’ in Ukraine peace talks following Geneva meeting

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Rubio claims ‘tremendous amount of progress’ in Ukraine peace talks following Geneva meeting

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that discussions over ending the war in Ukraine have entered a productive phase, while claiming “a tremendous amount of progress” had been made.

Following a round of talks with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva, Switzerland, Rubio told reporters negotiators had “a very good day today.”

“We had a very good day today. I think we made a tremendous amount of progress, even from the last time I spoke to you,” Rubio said.

“We began almost three weeks ago with a foundational document that we socialized and ran by both sides, and with input from both sides,” he said.

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LAVROV OFFERS FACE-TO-FACE MEETING WITH RUBIO AS RUSSIA SIGNALS DIPLOMATIC OPENING AMID UKRAINE TENSIONS

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a signing ceremony for a peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at the State Department on June 27, 2025, in Washington.  (Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)

Rubio described how negotiators had been refining the 28-point peace framework that outlines potential conditions for a ceasefire and long-term settlement for Ukraine and Russia.

“Over the last 96 hours or more, there’s been extensive engagement with the Ukrainian side including our Secretary of the Army and others, being on the ground in Kyiv, meeting with relevant stakeholders across the Ukrainian political spectrum in the legislative branch and the executive branch, and the military and others to further sort of narrow these points.”

TRUMP AND ZELENSKYY TO MEET AS POLAND PRESSURES NATO ON NO FLY ZONE OVER UKRAINE

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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy participates in a briefing at the Office of the President following a staff meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Nov. 7, 2025. (Pavlo Bahmut/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

“We arrived here today with one goal: to take what – it’s 28 points or 26 points, depending on which version, as it continued to evolve and try to narrow the ones that were open items. And we have achieved that today in a very substantial way,” he said.

The weekend talks centered on a 28-point plan, which is a framework drafted by the U.S. outlining steps for a possible ceasefire and political settlement.

The document is said to cover security guarantees, territorial control, reconstruction mechanisms, and Ukraine’s long-term relationship with NATO and the EU.

ZELENSKYY WARNS UKRAINE FACES ‘DIFFICULT CHOICE’ AS US PEACE PLAN HITS MAJOR HURDLE

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The plan has reportedly evolved through several iterations, narrowing disputes point by point as both sides weigh concessions.

“Now, obviously, like any final agreement, it’ll have to be agreed upon by the presidents, and there are a couple of issues that we need to continue to work on,” Rubio clarified.

While declining to specify unresolved issues, Rubio described the moment as “delicate.”

“This is a very delicate moment, and it’s important – like I said, there’s not agreement on those yet.  Some of it is semantics or language; others require higher-level decisions and consultation; others, I think, just need more time to work through,” he said before touching on some issues.

US AND RUSSIA DRAFT PEACE PLAN FOR UKRAINE REQUIRING MAJOR CONCESSIONS FROM KYIV

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Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022. (Ramil Sitdikov/Pool/Reuters )

“There were some that involved equities or the role of the EU or of NATO or so forth, and those we kind of segregated out because we just met with the national security advisors for various European countries, and those are things we’ll have to discuss with them because it involves them.”

“I don’t want to declare victory or finality here. There’s still some work to be done,” he added.

Suggesting there is intent to ensure Ukraine’s security, Rubio said that they all “recognize that part of getting a final end to this war will require for Ukraine to feel as if it is safe, and it is never going to be invaded or attacked again.”

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“I honestly believe we’ll get there,” he said, and when asked about next steps, Rubio said a possible call between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy could happen, adding, “I don’t know. It’s possible. I’m not sure.”

“The deadline is we want to get this done as soon as possible. Obviously, we’d love it to be Thursday,” he added.

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