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Analysis: Assad was a brutal dictator. Will Syria's new leaders be any better?

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Analysis: Assad was a brutal dictator. Will Syria's new leaders be any better?

The stunning overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad by Islamist rebels half a century after his family took power raises an old question when it comes to regime change in the Middle East: Will the new governing forces behave any better than those that have been deposed?

“The Assad regime has fallen,” President Biden declared Sunday from the White House. “It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria.”

“It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty, as we all turn to the question of what comes next,” Biden said.

In a matter of weeks, the rebels achieved what the United Nations, the U.S. and other Western powers long tried but failed to do. The Russian government announced late Sunday local time that Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and were being given asylum, Russian state news agencies reported.

Decades of brutal rule by Assad has left Syria fragmented ethnically, religiously and politically. The victorious insurgency is also divided. The leading group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, known as HTS, traces its roots to the terror organizations Islamic State and Al Qaeda but claims to have reformed.

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Long concerned about HTS taking power, Washington continues to designate it a terrorist group, which will complicate any dealings with it.

The rebel victory also scrambles regional relations. It deals a major setback to Assad’s allies Iran and Russia while boosting Turkey, which backed the HTS and will probably be Washington’s main conduit to Syria’s new leaders.

The U.S. backed a different rebel group, the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, a Kurdish militia that helped defeat Islamic State but that Turkey considers a terrorist group.

Clashes between the SDF and Turkish-backed factions were already being reported on Sunday.

Israel, meanwhile, is glad to see the departures of an Iran-backed Assad but not exactly thrilled at having Islamist leaders next door. The country was already bolstering a buffer zone along the border between the Israel-controlled Golan Heights and Syria and joined in the bombing of a small number of sites inside Syria.

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By any measure, the immediate future of Syria will be an unstable and potentially violent melange of competing groups, intense jockeying for power and settling of scores. Among worst-case scenarios are a deepening civil war or the conversion of the once-wealthy and now devastated country into a haven for militants such as the Islamic State.

After 24 hours monitoring what the White House called the “extraordinary” developments in Syria, Biden convened his National Security Council Sunday for updates and planning before speaking to the American public.

“We will remain vigilant,” Biden said, pledging to keep militants at bay and “do whatever we can to support” the Syrian people “to help restore Syria after more than a decade of war and a generation of brutality from the Assad family.”

By contrast, Donald Trump, who becomes president in about six weeks, said on his social media platform that the U.S. should “stay out of it.” “This is not our fight,” he said.

Similarly, as president in 2019, he declared that “someone else should fight” in Syria and in a much-criticized move ordered the withdrawal of most U.S. troops posted there, clearing the way for Turkey to move in and attack the United States’ Kurdish allies.

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Several hundred U.S. troops remain in Syria, officially to counter any resurgence by Islamic State.

There are other looming issues, however, that might demand a U.S. role, officials said.

Syria will need huge amounts of humanitarian aid, especially if some of the millions of citizens who fled as refugees during the last decade of war begin to return to the ruins of their former homes.

Also, critically, U.S. officials expressed concern about Assad’s large stockpiles of armament, including missiles and chemical weapons, that could end up in the hands of the rebels. Assad notoriously used chemical weapons on his own people to put down rebellion and dissent.

Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, voiced support for Assad after a 2017 visit to Syria. She said she doubted U.S. intelligence reports that he had used chemical weapons inside his country.

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For many ordinary Syrians, however, the principal concern is how minorities will be treated. Some, like the Alawite Shiite Muslim faction to which Assad’s family belonged, as well as some Kurds and Christians, are seen as having colluded with the regime. Most of the rebels are Sunni Muslims.

The first government to congratulate the opposition victory in Syria was Afghanistan’s radically conservative and repressive Islamic Taliban.

Ahmed Sharaa, the bearded commander of HTS, has sought to portray the group as a reformed and more moderate faction than its past associations suggest. He has preached tolerance and pluralism, although his rule over Syria’s Idlib province where HTS has held sway only displayed the most minimal version of such policies. Christians, for example, have been allowed to attend church.

“These sects have co-existed in the region for hundreds of years,” he told CNN in an interview last week as the rebels were advancing toward Damascus. “No one has the right to erase another group.”

He promised a “transition to a state of governance and institutions” and even suggested HTS could disband having achieved its military victory.

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That would be a very unusual transition in the Middle East, where players who gain power tend to hold on to it.

The Assad regime began in 1970 with Bashar’s father Hafez. With an insidious intelligence service, routine imprisonment and torture of dissidents and iron-fist control of media and public speech, the Assads maintained a ferocious and violent control of the Syrian population.

The Arab Spring protests of 2011 led to a brutal crackdown and eventually a civil war that killed an estimated 500,000 people.

Assad remained in power with military help from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed political and military faction based in Lebanon. Over the last year or so, those three allies all lost their ability to defend him.

Russia is overextended in its nearly three years of war in Ukraine. Iran has been battered by Israel from outside and dissent and economic turmoil on the inside. And Hezbollah has been vastly weakened by Israeli assassinations and bombardments.

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It is expected that Syria’s new leaders will close the Russian air base and port on the Mediterranean coast. Iran has lost a large portion if not all of its land and air routes to Lebanon and Hezbollah, its proxy there.

In his speech Sunday, Biden claimed some credit for the recent turn of events in Syria, as uncertain as its future may be.

“Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East through this combination of support for our partners, sanctions, diplomacy and targeted military force when necessary,” he said.

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Video: Trump Announces Construction of New Warships

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Video: Trump Announces Construction of New Warships

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Trump Announces Construction of New Warships

President Trump announced on Monday the construction of new warships for the U.S. Navy he called a “golden fleet.” Navy officials said the vessels would notionally have the ability to launch hypersonic and nuclear-armed cruise missiles.

We’re calling it the golden fleet, that we’re building for the United States Navy. As you know, we’re desperately in need of ships. Our ships are, some of them have gotten old and tired and obsolete, and we’re going to go the exact opposite direction. They’ll help maintain American military supremacy, revive the American shipbuilding industry, and inspire fear in America’s enemies all over the world. We want respect.

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President Trump announced on Monday the construction of new warships for the U.S. Navy he called a “golden fleet.” Navy officials said the vessels would notionally have the ability to launch hypersonic and nuclear-armed cruise missiles.

By Nailah Morgan

December 23, 2025

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Commentary: ‘It’s a Wonderful ICE?’ Trumpworld tries to hijack a holiday classic

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Commentary: ‘It’s a Wonderful ICE?’ Trumpworld tries to hijack a holiday classic

For decades, American families have gathered to watch “It’s a Wonderful Life” on Christmas Eve.

The 1946 Frank Capra movie, about a man who on one of the worst days of his life discovers how he has positively impacted his hometown of Bedford Falls, is beloved for extolling selflessness, community and the little guy taking on rapacious capitalists. Take those values, add in powerful acting and the promise of light in the darkest of hours, and it’s the only movie that makes me cry.

No less a figure of goodwill than Pope Leo XIV revealed last month that it’s one of his favorite movies. But as with anything holy in this nation, President Trump and his followers are trying to hijack the holiday classic.

Last weekend, the Department of Homeland Security posted two videos celebrating its mass deportation campaign. One, titled “It’s a Wonderful Flight,” re-creates the scene where George Bailey (Jimmy Stewart in one of his best performances) contemplates taking his own life by jumping off a snowy bridge. But the protagonist is a Latino man crying over the film’s despairing score that he’ll “do anything” to return to his wife and kids and “live again.”

Cut to the same man now mugging for the camera on a plane ride out of the United States. The scene ends with a plug for an app that allows undocumented immigrants to take up Homeland Security’s offer of a free self-deportation flight and a $1,000 bonus — $3,000 if they take the one-way trip during the holidays.

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The other DHS clip is a montage of Yuletide cheer — Santa, elves, stockings, dancing — over a sped-up electro-trash remake of Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You.” In one split-second image, Bedford Falls residents sing “Auld Lang Syne,” just after they’ve saved George Bailey from financial ruin and an arrest warrant.

“This Christmas,” the caption reads, “our hearts grow as our illegal population shrinks.”

“It’s a Wonderful Life” has long served as a political Rorschach test. Conservatives once thought Capra’s masterpiece was so anti-American for its vilification of big-time bankers that they accused him of sneaking in pro-Communist propaganda. In fact, the director was a Republican who paused his career during World War II to make short documentaries for the Department of War. Progressives tend to loathe the film’s patriotism, its sappiness, its relegation of Black people to the background and its depiction of urban life as downright demonic.

Then came Trump’s rise to power. His similarity to the film’s villain, Mr. Potter — a wealthy, nasty slumlord who names everything he takes control of after himself — was easier to point out than spots on a cheetah. Left-leaning essayists quickly made the facile comparison, and a 2018 “Saturday Night Live” parody imagining a country without Trump as president so infuriated him that he threatened to sue.

But in recent years, Trumpworld has claimed that the film is actually a parable about their dear leader.

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Trump is a modern day George Bailey, the argument goes, a secular saint walking away from sure riches to try to save the “rabble” that Mr. Potter — who in their minds somehow represents the liberal elite — sneers at. A speaker at the 2020 Republican National Convention explicitly made the comparison, and the recent Homeland Security videos warping “It’s a Wonderful Life” imply it too — except now, it’s unchecked immigration that threatens Bedford Falls.

The Trump administration’s take on “It’s a Wonderful Life” is that it reflects a simpler, better, whiter time. But that’s a conscious misinterpretation of this most American of movies, whose foundation is strengthened by immigrant dreams.

Director Frank Capra

(Handout)

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In his 1971 autobiography “The Name Above the Title,” Capra revealed that his “dirty, hollowed-out immigrant family” left Sicily for Los Angeles in the 1900s to reunite with an older brother who “jumped the ship” to enter the U.S. years before. Young Frank grew up in the “sleazy Sicilian ghetto” of Lincoln Heights, finding kinship at Manual Arts High with the “riff-raff” of immigrant and working-class white kids “other schools discarded” and earning U.S. citizenship only after serving in the first World War. Hard times wouldn’t stop Capra and his peers from achieving success.

The director captured that sentiment in “It’s a Wonderful Life” through the character of Giuseppe Martini, an Italian immigrant who runs a bar. His heavily accented English is heard early in the film as one of many Bedford Falls residents praying for Bailey. In a flashback, Martini is seen leaving his shabby Potter-owned apartment with a goat and a troop of kids for a suburban tract home that Bailey developed and sold to him.

Today, Trumpworld would cast the Martinis as swarthy invaders destroying the American way of life. In “It’s a Wonderful Life,” they’re America itself.

When an angry husband punches Bailey at Martini’s bar for insulting his wife, the immigrant kicks out the man for assaulting his “best friend.” And when Bedford Falls gathers at the end of the film to raise funds and save Bailey, it’s Martini who arrives with the night’s profits from his business, as well as wine for everyone to celebrate.

Immigrants are so key to the good life in this country, the film argues, that in the alternate reality if George Bailey had never lived, Martini is nowhere to be heard.

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Capra long stated that “It’s a Wonderful Life” was his favorite of his own movies, adding in his memoir that it was a love letter “for the Magdalenes stoned by hypocrites and the afflicted Lazaruses with only dogs to lick their sores.”

I’ve tried to catch at least the ending every Christmas Eve to warm my spirits, no matter how bad things may be. But after Homeland Security’s hijacking of Capra’s message, I made time to watch the entire film, which I’ve seen at least 10 times, before its customary airing on NBC.

I shook my head, feeling the deja vu, as Bailey’s father sighed, “In this town, there’s no place for any man unless they crawl to Potter.”

I cheered as Bailey told Potter years later, “You think the whole world revolves around you and your money. Well, it doesn’t.” I wondered why more people haven’t said that to Trump.

When Potter ridiculed Bailey as someone “trapped into frittering his life away playing nursemaid to a lot of garlic eaters,” I was reminded of the right-wingers who portray those of us who stand up to Trump’s cruelty as stupid and even treasonous.

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And as the famous conclusion came, all I thought about was immigrants.

People giving Bailey whatever money they could spare reminded me of how regular folks have done a far better job standing up to Trump’s deportation Leviathan than the rich and mighty have.

As the film ends, with Bailey and his family looking on in awe at how many people came to help out, I remembered my own immigrant elders, who also forsook dreams and careers so their children could achieve their own — the only reward to a lifetime of silent sacrifice.

The tears flowed as always, this time prompted by a new takeaway that was always there — “Solo el pueblo salva el pueblo,” or “Only we can save ourselves,” a phrase adopted by pro-immigrant activists in Southern California this year as a mantra of comfort and resistance.

It’s the heart of “It’s a Wonderful Life” and the opposite of Trump’s push to make us all dependent on his mercy. He and his fellow Potters can’t do anything to change that truth.

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