A new report commissioned by the Department of Public Service has become the latest flashpoint in the battle over climate policy in Vermont.

Last year, the Democratically controlled Legislature advanced a climate initiative, called the clean heat standard, that seeks to reduce carbon emissions in the state’s heating sector.

Republican Gov. Phil Scott vetoed the measure before being overridden by lawmakers. And he said during a press conference Thursday that his opposition has been vindicated by an analysis that pegs the costs of transitioning to a thermal sector that meets Vermont’s emission-reduction targets at more than $9 billion.

“I’ve always believed affordability concerns should be taken seriously, because they’re significant,” Scott said. “We need to be thoughtful and realistic and make sure we’re not hurting the Vermonters that can least afford it.”

The analysis was commissioned by the Department of Public Service and conducted by a Rhode Island-based technical consulting company called NV5. The report’s authors say the $9.6 billion figure does not represent “actual program costs” needed to implement the clean heat standard. And a more detailed cost analysis — including estimated impacts on per-gallon fuel costs — won’t arrive until Vermont’s Public Utility Commission completes its work early next year.

Scott’s Commissioner of Public Service June Tierney, however, said the report confirms that there will be a “significant cost” to Vermonters if lawmakers vote to enact the clean heat standard during the next legislative session.

“The clean heat standard would require Vermonters to incur costs themselves to achieve societal benefits that accrue globally,” Tierney said Thursday. “Now this may be good. This may be selfless. This may be even noble … But that doesn’t mean everyday Vermonters who are struggling with inflation and rising property taxes can bear it.”

Jared Duval is a member of the Vermont Climate Council, which has endorsed the clean heat standard as a necessary tool for the state to meet emissions-reduction mandates that were enshrined in statute in 2020.

While the latest report forecasts $9.6 billion in upfront costs over the next 25 years to reduce thermal-sector emissions, Duval said it also predicts $11.7 billion in “societal benefits” as a result of that work.

He said Vermonters face a threshold decision about their energy future. And he likened that choice to someone dealing with a leaky roof.

“Is there a cost to fixing that roof? Absolutely,” Duval said. “Are the benefits of not having water damage and mold throughout your house worth that initial upfront investment of fixing your roof? Absolutely.”

The benefits of moving away from expensive fossil fuels, and reducing carbon emissions, according to Duval, warrant the investments needed to reduce energy demand, and transition away from fuels such as heating oil and propane.

“We are seeing that climate destabilization is here and it is wreaking massive costs on Vermonters and people throughout the world,” he said. “And so we do have a responsibility to make upfront investments that are going to reduce … both the energy costs that Vermonters face and the damages of climate disruption. That’s part of the responsibility here.”

Addison County Sen. Chris Bray, the Democratic chair of the Senate Committee on Natural Resources, said the clean heat standard Scott is warning against doesn’t yet exist.

“Right now, the governor talks about it like it’s a plane that’s taxiing to the end of the runway and it’s about to take off in January and it’s about to hit everyone,” Bray said.

Bray said the proposal is in fact a work in progress, and that lawmakers will use analyses such as the one produced by NV5, and a proposed clean heat framework from the Public Utility Commission that’s forthcoming, to inform legislation that will get an up-or-down vote in Montpelier next year.

“We will take the information we get, and we won’t be starting from scratch … but we have to write another whole bill to move forward a program,” he said.

Bray said Scott is using his “bully pulpit” to make the case preemptively against what could be an important and beneficial piece of climate legislation.

“He’s gone to the strongest lever he can apply, the level of inducing fear,” he said. “And that isn’t conducive to having a conversation that will help us solve this problem together.”

The governor said Thursday that he’s especially concerned about the implications of the clean heat standard on low-income Vermonters. And since approximately 70% of Vermonters heat their homes with fossil fuels, he said, a majority of residents will be impacted by any plan that has the effect of increasing fuel costs.

“From my perspective, this is starting to look a lot like single-payer,” said Scott, referencing the ill-fated health care reform plan that legislative Democrats pursued, and then abandoned, during the 2010s. “And we should learn from the mistakes of the past, because Vermonters deserve better.”

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