With days before Tuesday’s Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key swing states that could determine the winner, a new exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows.

Harris and Trump are tied with 49% of the vote each, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted from Oct. 27 to 30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which way the state trends, was also tied 48% to 48%. Northampton County, another Pennsylvania bellwether, leaned slightly towards Trump, with 50% saying they supported him, to Harris’ 48%. The results of the county polls are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points. 

Together, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said, the county and statewide data show Pennsylvania is “truly a toss up.” 

“We have all the results within the margin of error … it’s basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said.

Pennsylvania holds 19 electoral votes – the most out of the swing states. Both candidates have campaigned in the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.

More: Harris, Trump deadlocked in battleground Michigan, new exclusive poll shows

Biden won Pennsylvania by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point in 2020. He flipped both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump had won in 2016.

The state is part of the “blue wall,” a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections, until Trump won three of them – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – in 2016.

Undecided and third-party voters

Most voters in Pennsylvania have already decided who to support, but with the race as tight as it is, the small percentage of undecideds could sway the results of the election in the state – and the country. 

So could third-party candidates. In Pennsylvania, there are two options outside of Trump and Harris on the ballot – Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. They each notched 1% or less support in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll. 

But if the election in Pennsylvania is as close as polls suggest it could be, a candidate with .5% could tip the scale for Harris or Trump, Paleologos said. 

Jason Danner, 38, is among the few still undecided voters left in Pennsylvania. 

While Danner said he believes that Trump was a good president, he has concerns that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “seems to not respect the Constitution.” On the other hand, he’s worried that Harris would continue the policies of Biden.

A registered Democrat, when Danner ultimately gets into the voting booth, he said he’s “most likely” going to vote for Harris. But he’ll just do so begrudgingly.

“I voted my whole life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I’m like, I don’t even want to vote because I’ve become so apathetic to our political climate.”

Sean Doyle said he plans to vote, but will leave the presidential box blank. After casting a vote for Biden last election cycle, Doyle said he can’t accept that Harris wasn’t chosen in a primary process.

“We needed an honest primary, and that was taken from us,” he said. “I can’t abide voting for the candidate whose party thinks it’s OK to snub the voters like that.”

A veteran who served for 12 years, Doyle said his politics most align with the Libertarian Party, but feels that casting a third-party vote would be a waste of his ballot. In 2020, he decided at the last minute against supporting Trump after he “remembered all the things that he said negatively about veterans.”

While he favors Democrats’ economic policy, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

“I’ve been seeing less and less and less when it comes to anything that actually helps me,” he said.

The gender gap

Nationally, Harris is leading decisively among women and Trump has garnered a similar edge with men.

And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said. 

Trump is up by 20 points among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% hold on women over Trump, 57% to 39%. That’s compared to Trump’s 16-point advantage among men nationally and Harris 17-point advantage among women.

“Where the rubber hits the road is in the married couple’s household,” Paleologos said. “It’s the married women and married men who are struggling with this election because they’re talking about it under their roof.”

Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are central to why she already cast her ballot for Harris. “I have two daughters, and that’s my big issue,” she said. 

“I have terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that option, I think my life would be totally different, and most likely not a good way,” said Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mom of three kids, aged 11, 8, and 6, who lives in Oreland, a Philadelphia suburb.

Although Keshgegian voted in 2020 for President Biden because she felt he was the best choice, she “would prefer someone younger, more in tune with a change in the government, as opposed to the same old white men,” she said. She feels more connected to Harris, who she finds more relatable and compassionate and less divisive.

Keshgegian said Trump may be able to bring down prices, and she understands people may vote for him for that reason. But she can’t abide by what she sees as his other characteristics. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

“I’d rather have less money in my pocket than have someone with his ideals.”

That calculus weighs differently for others. 

Luanne McDonald, from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed emotions” about the election and views both Trump and Harris as “terrible” candidates. A self-described independent, McDonald doesn’t agree with Trump’s stances on abortion or women’s rights, but believes Harris is “weak and wishy-washy.” 

She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to again on Nov. 5.  When it comes to the issues that matter most to her – the economy and law and order – McDonald said she feels Trump will do a better job.  

“I could buy a Babka at my Whole Foods when he was president, I can’t afford it now,” McDonald, a former nurse, said, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I’ve never felt poor until now.”

Unsurprisingly, more than 70% of people who viewed current economic conditions as poor said they supported Trump. Harris outperformed Trump with those who believed the economy was in fair, good or excellent shape. 

Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump all the way to the bottom of the ticket.

The owner of a house painting and wallpaper business in Chalfont, about 30 miles north of Philadelphia, Huhn said economic issues are his top priority. “Being self-employed, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.

He believes the Republican platform can deliver.

Cheaper energy “will help bring down cost of goods, less regulation will also help encourage growth to business,” he said. “I like Republicans for their more conservative viewpoints about spending and limited government.”

Trevor Borchelt, from Berks County, Pa., describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican, who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his biggest concern.

“I don’t disagree with some of Trump’s policies,” Borchelt, 44, said, noting the former president’s tax and pro-manufacturing policies. “But if you don’t pass the bar of accepting the results of an election, [you] don’t get to be involved in a democratic election.”  

Trump is facing multiple criminal trials for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and has refused to say that he would accept the outcome of the 2024 race.

Borchelt has never cast a ballot for Trump – in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson and in 2020 he supported Biden. This year, he said, he hopes that Trump will lose, and politics will return to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the name calling and the violence and ugliness.”

“I’m kind of fed up,” he said.

A Pennsylvania television station ignited a flurry of conspiracy theories when it aired the statewide presidential election results on a graphic, though the election is days away.

The mistake happened on Sunday, but it picked up speed on Wednesday when conservative media outlets, social media skeptics and conspiracy theorists got wind of it, many claiming that this is “proof” the election is rigged.

The flub occurred while the station was airing a Formula 1 race. Viewers then noticed at the bottom of their screen a graphic showing Vice President Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania by 52% compared to former President Donald Trump’s 47%. This stirred confusion and concern, with even Elon Musk, the chairman of X, weighing in, calling it a Freudian slip.

However, the station that was responsible says the mistake was simply a test that accidentally made it on the air and that there is no evidence of any fraud.

In a statement, WNEP-TV says the numbers were “randomly generated test results set out to help news organizations make sure their equipment is working properly in advance of election night.” WNEP said it “regrets the error and apologizes apologized for any confusion.” It said it has taken steps to ensure the mistake is not repeated.

RELATED STORY | Republicans ask US Supreme Court to block counting of some provisional ballots in Pennsylvania

WNEP-TV also went on to note that it wouldn’t have been able to have access to vote counts anyway, as Pennsylvania law doesn’t allow mail-in ballots to be taken out of their envelopes until 7 a.m. on Election Day and no votes can be counted until after polls closed at 8 p.m.

This mistake is also not unprecedented. A Detroit TV station made a similar error back in 2020, and in 2022, it occurred in Arizona.

Still, the error is being held up as “evidence” of election fraud and misconduct, mostly by Trump and his allies, with no proof. Many supporters of the former president also pointed to the Pennsylvania station being an ABC-affiliated station, as they’ve often criticized the friendship between Harris and Dana Walden, an executive of Disney Entertainment who oversees ABC News. However, the error only aired in the local market and was not affiliated with Disney ABC News.

In the weeks and days leading up to the election, officials around the country have had their hands full fighting this disinformation like this. They insist that despite those isolated incidents though, the integrity of the election system in this country is intact.

Former President Donald Trump may be facing unexpected challenges in Pennsylvania, where new polling shows a dip in his support among white voters—a crucial demographic in the battleground state.

According to the latest Fox News poll, conducted between October 24 and 28 among 1,310 registered voters in Pennsylvania, Trump is leading white voters by only 4 points, 52 percent to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus percentage points.

White voters are central to Trump’s base. In 2016, 54 percent of the demographic voted for him nationally, giving him a 15-point edge over Hillary Clinton, while 55 percent voted for him in 2020, giving him a 12-point advantage. His lead among white voters was just as large in Pennsylvania in 2020, when he won the demographic by 15 points, according to CNN exit polls.

But polls suggest Trump’s white voter base may be shrinking in Pennsylvania. According to AtlasIntel’s latest poll, conducted between October 25 and 29, Trump leads among white voters by just 6 points. The latest CNN/SSRS poll, conducted between October 23 and 28, showed Trump leading among white voters by just 4 points.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac University’s latest poll, conducted between October 24 and 28, showed Trump leading among white voters by a larger margin, but still by a smaller amount than previous years, with an 11-point lead. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

With the national race tight, Trump’s narrowing base of white voters in Pennsylvania could jeopardize his path to victory in the state—and potentially in the overall election. Pennsylvania, with its 19 critical Electoral College votes, has historically been a bellwether, voting for the winning candidate in 48 of the past 59 elections.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s population is predominantly white and working class, with this demographic making up 75 percent of the state’s residents—making it a crucial component of Trump’s base.

Overall, polls remain extremely tight in Pennsylvania. Harris was leading in the Keystone State after becoming the Democratic nominee, but in the last two weeks Trump has taken the lead, according to 538’s poll tracker, which shows Trump with a slim 0.4-point edge. Pollster Nate Silver’s data similarly puts Trump up by 0.6 points, while RealClearPolitics has him leading by 0.7 points.

But there is still potential for the state to flip in Harris’ favor following remarks by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden in New York on Sunday that sparked a firestorm of criticism and dominated news headlines.

Hinchcliffe joked that Puerto Rico was a “floating island of garbage.” While Trump campaign adviser Danielle Alvarez said Hinchcliffe’s controversial remarks “do not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign,” the joke went over badly. The backlash could hit Trump especially hard in Pennsylvania—the swing state with the highest percentage of Puerto Rican residents with 3.7 percent of the population. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by 1.2 points after Trump won it in 2016.

On the same day as the Madison Square Garden rally, Harris was in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and used the visit to release a video on her plan for Puerto Rico, which Puerto Rican music icon Bad Bunny shared on his Instagram account.

Early voting data from Pennsylvania shows that more Democrats than Republicans have voted, with registered Democrats making up 57 percent of early voters, compared with 32 percent for Republicans, according to the University of Florida’s early vote tracker. It is unclear what this means for the election since the early vote data reveals only whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for.