Pennsylvania
In must-win Pennsylvania, could a Harris-Shapiro ticket trump Trump-Vance?
WASHINGTON – No doubt, if you are Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, Pennsylvania is a must-win in 2024. It’s been that way for decades, but while Democrats have won every presidential contest in the state since Bill Clinton in 1992, Trump turned that conventional wisdom on its head in 2016, flipping the state red.
And while Joe Biden wrestled the state back to blue in 2020, it happened at the same time Republicans made inroads elsewhere, ousting the Democratic treasurer and auditor general. In every case, the Philadelphia region often proves most crucial, with its giant voter base, and so-called “collar counties” with voters who can often be unpredictable come Election Day.
In a recent segment on “The Final 5,” I talked with NOTUS reporter Evan McMorris-Santoro about how Philadelphia-area Democrats are handling the transition atop the ticket, and how support for President Biden is translating to support for Vice President Kamala Harris. McMorris-Santoro, who has been following the political pulse in Philadelphia, shared insights on how this change is being received, plus how Gov. Josh Shapiro has emerged as a potential running mate.
“It’s very confusing for them right now, because they had a whole plan before before Harris came in right that Scranton Joe goes to those suburban counties when he got on the ticket in 2020 the whole the whole pitch was, ‘Look, I can get Democrats. Also, I can get these, maybe Republican voters. These white suburban voters. They’re going to vote for me because I’m a white guy. There’s one of the things they talked about, and obviously in Pennsylvania. You know him being a native of Scranton,” said McMorris-Santoro.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold, has long been a key area for Joe Biden due to his deep ties with the region’s political machine, led by his close friend and former Congressman Bob Brady. But McMorris-Santoro found that many Democrats, particularly those who had been struggling to rally enthusiasm for Biden among younger and black voters, were invigorated by the shift to Harris. This change was seen as a much-needed boost to the party’s base.
“We have seen such a shift in the way base Democrats talk about the ticket since Harris has sort of become the likely nominee, I mean, even among those those uncommitted voters, those voters who really really were angry about the war in Gaza, and trying to maybe even damage Biden’s candidacy because of it….we’ve seen shifts even among them towards Harris, so that that they feel like there’s something more they can trust with Harris. It’s a confusing situation, because she doesn’t sound that much different than Biden on this issue.”
However, there are concerns about how Harris will perform outside urban centers. Biden’s appeal to suburban voters, especially those in the surrounding counties of Philadelphia, was a significant factor in previous elections. These areas, which have seen Republican gains, are crucial for either party to clinch the Keystone State.
One potential strategy to mitigate this concern is for Harris to choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her vice-presidential nominee. Shapiro, who like Harris, served as state attorney general, won his governorship by a wide margin and could help secure the suburban vote that Biden was able to attract. He also hails from the Democratic stronghold of Montgomery County, just outside of Philadelphia.
“They say you get that you bring back all the things that Biden had, and you sort of can like sew Pennsylvania up very neatly. But it is a thing where, on the one hand, they’re extremely excited about this base activation, which is obviously a huge problem Democrats had,” says McMorris-Santoro.
Despite the excitement among base Democrats, there are challenges ahead. Some voters, particularly on the left flank of the party, are dissatisfied with how the White House has handled certain issues, including the situation in the Middle East. McMorris-Santoro noted that these voters are showing a shift in attitude towards Harris, who they perceive as a fresh start, despite her policies aligning closely with Biden’s.
Bob Brady, while expressing his disappointment over Biden’s departure, has rallied behind Harris, echoing Biden’s sentiment to “get past it.” This unification suggests a growing Democratic enthusiasm that had been missing earlier in the cycle.
With just under 100 days until election day, the transition from Biden to Harris has injected new energy into the Democratic campaign. As McMorris-Santoro observed, the next few weeks will be critical in determining how, or even if, this momentum translates into votes, especially in pivotal regions like Pennsylvania.
**For more details, check out Evan McMorris-Santoro’s full report on NOTUS.
Pennsylvania
2 Western Pennsylvania men charged in murder-for-hire plot confession to pastor, police say
State police in Western Pennsylvania have charged two men in a murder-for-hire plot after one of the suspects allegedly confessed to his pastor.
NBC News affiliate WJAC reports David Vanatta, 49, and Colton Baird, 32, both of Elk County, were jailed for an alleged plot to kill Vanatta’s ex-wife.
An affidavit obtained by WJAC states Vanetta confessed to a pastor that he paid Baird $2,000 to kill his ex-wife. The pastor then reported the information to police.
Police say the ex-wife was never harmed.
Online court records show Vanatta and Baird are facing several charges, including criminal solicitation – criminal homicide, conspiracy to commit criminal homicide and attempted homicide. Both men are being held in the Elk County Prison without bail.
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Pennsylvania
How the Lehigh Valley helped Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation economy grow to $19B
Forget elves: Patrick Brogan and his team at ArtsQuest are the reason some of country singer/songwriter Megan Moroney’s fans will awake on Christmas to find tickets waiting for them to her show July 31 in Bethlehem.
Planning the lineup featuring headliners like Moroney at ArtsQuest’s Musikfest each summer, plus other draws like its Levitt Pavilion outdoor concert series, is a year-round activity.
“We put out offers for the following year’s Musikfest before that year’s Musikfest even takes place,” said Brogan, chief programming officer for the nonprofit ArtsQuest. “By the Fourth of July I have offers out for the following year’s Musikfest already and we’re in active conversations.”
Nationally, festivals, sporting events and concerts are a big business, contributing $21.8 billion in 2023 toward an outdoor recreation economy that rose 9% to $639.5 billion compared to 2022, according to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Venues like Musikfest helped push ArtsQuest’s contribution to the regional economy to $132.7 million in 2023, based on Americans for the Arts funding formulas. And those summer nights shows are part of Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation industry that contributed nearly $19 billion to the state’s economy in 2023, up 10% from 2022.
The Keystone State boasts the eighth-largest outdoor recreation economy in the country.
The value of outdoor recreation added made up 2.3% of the gross domestic product for the United States in 2023, in current dollars, and 1.9% of Pennsylvania’s GDP. It generates employment totaling 168,322 jobs in Pennsylvania in 2023, or 2.7% of the statewide workforce, and compensation totaling $8.7 billion, for 1.7% of payroll. Across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, outdoor recreation employment increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in 2023, topped by 7.5% growth in Alaska; only Indiana saw a drop in outdoor recreation employment, of 4.8%, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis says.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, puts out its outdoor recreation economy report each fall. Nationally, the outdoor economy is outpacing other economic growth, the statistics show: Adjusted for inflation, the GDP for the outdoor recreation economy increased 3.6% in 2023, compared with a 2.9% increase for the overall U.S. economy.
What goes into the outdoor recreation economy?
It encompasses core outdoor recreation activities like bicycling; boating and recreation; climbing, hiking and tent camping; equestrian; hunting, shooting and trapping; motorcycling and ATVing; recreational flying; RVing; skiing, snowboarding and other snow activities (including snowmobiling); and apparel and accessories. Also included are outdoor recreation industries like amusement parks and water parks; festivals, sporting events and concerts; field sports; game areas (includes golfing and tennis); guided tours and travel; and productive activities such as gardening, plus support for outdoor recreation under headings that include construction; local trips and travel; food and beverages; lodging; shopping and souvenirs; transportation and government spending.
In the Lehigh Valley, outdoor recreation helps to drive the regional, state and national economy 12 months a year.
“Tickets make great gifts,” ArtsQuest’s Brogan said, with the Musikfest 2025 headliners announced before Christmas 2024 that also include Riley Green, The Avett Brothers, Darius Rucker, Nelly and Jordan Davis.
Regionally, it contributes to a GDP that grew to a record $55.7 billion in 2023, led by manufacturing, according to a December report from the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corp.
Blue Mountain Resort outside Palmerton, for example, employs around 1,200 people during its peak season in winter when it offers 40 ski trails, five terrain parks, 16 lifts and up to 46 tubing lanes on the north face of the Kittatinny Ridge boasting the highest vertical drop — 1,082 feet — of any Pennsylvania ski area. In the warmer months, Blue Mountain has diversified to offer camping, a bike park and adventure park, along with dining options like the Slopeside Pub & Grill that is open year-round and sports panoramic views of the Pocono Mountains.
Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom in South Whitehall Township is part of an amusement and water parks industry worth $515 million in Pennsylvania and over $19 billion nationally. It’s closed to the public for the winter, but not dormant. Management in December announced winter maintenance season was in full swing, with ride inspections for Dorney Park signature attractions like Iron Menace, Steel Force and more; facility upgrades that include refreshing guest services, dining areas, pathways and restrooms; and other enhancements, such as the removal of two aging slide structures and the reimagining of several guest areas at Wildwater Kingdom.
The growth in Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation economy comes as the state Department of Conservation and Natural Resources is launching its Elevate campaign. Announced during an event in October in Easton, the idea is to work with the businesses that make up Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation industry to help them grow even more.
“My administration is committed to supporting and growing the outdoor recreation industry, which strengthens local economies, creates jobs, and enhances the quality of life for Pennsylvanians and visitors alike,” Gov. Josh Shapiro said in a news release on the federal economic data released in November. “By investing in outdoor recreation, we’re not just creating economic opportunity but also celebrating the natural beauty that makes Pennsylvania so unique. We will continue working to make the Commonwealth a national leader, where millions of visitors and residents can go to spend time outside with the people they love.”
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Kurt Bresswein may be reached at kbresswein@lehighvalleylive.com.
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