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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election

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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election


Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in Pennsylvania, according to two new polls this week in the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.

Key Facts

Harris leads by 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average—a recent Morning Consult poll found her up by three points, 49% to 46%, and a September CBS/YouGov poll showed Harris and Trump even, both at 50%.

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Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.

Pennsylvania has a 35% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has a 91% of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania, while Trump has a 96% chance of winning.

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Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.

Underscoring Pennsylvania’s weight in the 2024 election, ABC News chose to host the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris there, on Tuesday in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania is also significant to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white—a demographic Trump typically performs well with, though Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.

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Surprising Fact

No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan holds, she’s all but certain to win the White House.

Big Number

82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who said the economy is a major factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to the CBS/YouGov survey. The results are on par with the national electorate, according to a recent Pew Research survey of registered voters that found 81% of registered voters rate the economy as “very important” in the election.

Chief Critic

Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her previous endorsement of a fracking ban—Pennsylvania is the country’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said during a 2019 CNN climate town hall while she was running for president “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” has said she’s since changed her stance. During Tuesday’s debate, she said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she’s against a fracking ban, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted the Inflation Reduction Act opened new gas leases—reiterating a stance she took in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say she changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate—instead she said then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “will not end fracking.”

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Tangent

Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also control the House, but Republicans hold the majority in the Senate.

Key Background

Harris leads Trump in five of seven battleground states, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages that show margins of less than three points in all seven battleground states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia, and wins North Carolina, as he’s expected to, he would need just one of the “Blue Wall” states to win the White House.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania (Forbes)

How Kamala Harris’ Views On Fracking Have Changed—After Backtracking On Ban (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 1 Point—As Her Lead Plateaus Before Debate (Forbes)

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Pa. STEM center made possible by Cal Ripken, Sr. Foundation

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Pa. STEM center made possible by Cal Ripken, Sr. Foundation


STEM careers can lead students to earn higher salaries, but it isn’t always accessible for all children to pursue STEM programs or careers.

“Most Americans believe K-12 STEM education in the United States is either average or below average compared with other wealthy nations,” according to an April 2024 Pew Research Center survey.

The study also revealed that “recent global standardized test scores show that students in the U.S. are, in fact, lagging behind their peers in other wealthy nations when it comes to math,” but are doing better than average in science compared with pupils in other countries.

The foundation is for all students but it places centers in neighborhoods handpicked because they don’t have access to technology education or abundant financial resources. Ripken Jr. explained, “A lot of our centers are in rural (or inner-city) areas.”

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Joe Rossow, executive vice president of STEM and outcome measurements at the Cal Ripken, Sr. Foundation, noted that “rural areas don’t have that tax base… it’s hard for them to get new equipment, and new furniture and new things.”

Calvin Butler, president and CEO of Exelon and board chairman of the Cal Ripken Sr. Foundation (left) Cal Ripken Jr., baseball Hall of Fame shortstop (center) and PECO senior VP Doug Oliver (right) pose with the Philly Phanatic at the ceremonial ribbon cutting for a new STEM center at the Tinicum School in Delaware County, Pa., on November 20, 2024. (Kimberly Paynter/WHYY)

In a 2021 report, Pew research also revealed that “Black and Hispanic workers remain underrepresented in the STEM workforce compared with their share of all workers.” The research stated that while women make up half of those employed in STEM jobs, most are in health-related careers. Women are underrepresented in other occupations, according to the report.

The foundation aims to help level the field and alter the stigma that prevents students from entering STEM-related careers. Rossow said they have seen an increase in girls showing interest in their STEM center programs. An analysis of application data from students in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Maryland found that 60% of female students had a higher increase in STEM engagement, 53% of female students had a higher percentage of STEM enjoyment and 50% of female students’ chances increased to enter STEM careers.

“Some of our female students had an increase in critical thinking as problem solvers and after that study, we didn’t realize it (the centers) really had an impact on our female engineers,” Rossow said.

The foundation’s mission is to partner with youth-serving organizations and schools across the country to provide educational life skills curriculum.

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A mission that Ripken Sr. believed in wholeheartedly, according to Ripken Jr.

In Pennsylvania, STEM centers have opened at Saint Aloysius Parish School in Pottstown, Scott Sixth Grade Center in Coatesville, Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary in Delta, Robert K. Shafer Middle School in Bensalem, Feltonville School of Arts & Sciences and Avery Harrington School in Philadelphia.

The organization plans to open more centers in the future.



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Mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on tap this evening

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Mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on tap this evening


We’re dropping into the 40s this evening, then bottoming out to the low 40s during the overnight hours. We’ll continue to be breezy through the night, which will make it feel a bit chillier out there. Find out our next best chance of rain in the full forecast!



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Bacteria In Toothpaste: What PA Customers Need To Know

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Bacteria In Toothpaste: What PA Customers Need To Know


PENNSYLVANIA— Any Pennsylvania residents who use Tom’s of Maine toothpaste and have noticed a strange taste or smell from the product aren’t alone, according to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration, which recently detailed how bacteria was found in some of the company’s products and black mold was discovered at a facility.

The agency this month issued a warning letter to Tom’s of Maine Inc. about its “significant violations” of manufacturing regulations for pharmaceuticals, and discussed a May inspection of the facility in Sanford, Maine.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a type of bacteria that can cause blood and lung infections, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was found from June 2021 to October 2022 in samples of water that was used to make Tom’s Simply White Clean Mint Paste, the letter stated. The water was also used for the final rinse in equipment cleaning.

Gram-negative cocco-bacilli Paracoccus yeei, which is associated with several infections, according to the Hartmann Science Center, was in a batch of the company’s Wicked Cool! Anticavity Toothpaste, the letter stated.

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Ralstonia insidiosa, a waterborne bacteria, according to the Journal of Medical Microbiology, was repeatedly found at water points of use at the facility, the letter stated.

“A black mold-like substance” was discovered within one foot of equipment that came into contact with products, according to the letter, which stated the substance was at the base of a hose reel and behind a water storage tank.

The company received about 400 complaints related to toothpaste odor, color and taste, including in relation to products for children, but the complaints were not investigated, the letter said.

“We have always tested finished goods before they leave our control, and we remain fully confident in the safety and quality of the toothpaste we make,” Tom’s of Maine said, according to News Center Maine. “In addition, we have engaged water specialists to evaluate our systems at Sanford, have implemented additional safeguards to ensure compliance with FDA standards, and our water testing shows no issues.”

In the federal administration’s letter, dated Nov. 5, the agency directed the company to provide multiple risk assessments, reserve sample test results from all unexpired batches, and a water system remediation plan, among other things. The administration requested a written response from Tom’s of Maine within 15 working days.

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With reporting by Anna Schier of Patch.



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