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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election

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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election


Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in Pennsylvania, according to two new polls this week in the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.

Key Facts

Harris leads by 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average—a recent Morning Consult poll found her up by three points, 49% to 46%, and a September CBS/YouGov poll showed Harris and Trump even, both at 50%.

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Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.

Pennsylvania has a 35% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has a 91% of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania, while Trump has a 96% chance of winning.

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Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.

Underscoring Pennsylvania’s weight in the 2024 election, ABC News chose to host the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris there, on Tuesday in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania is also significant to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white—a demographic Trump typically performs well with, though Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.

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Surprising Fact

No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan holds, she’s all but certain to win the White House.

Big Number

82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who said the economy is a major factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to the CBS/YouGov survey. The results are on par with the national electorate, according to a recent Pew Research survey of registered voters that found 81% of registered voters rate the economy as “very important” in the election.

Chief Critic

Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her previous endorsement of a fracking ban—Pennsylvania is the country’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said during a 2019 CNN climate town hall while she was running for president “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” has said she’s since changed her stance. During Tuesday’s debate, she said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she’s against a fracking ban, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted the Inflation Reduction Act opened new gas leases—reiterating a stance she took in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say she changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate—instead she said then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “will not end fracking.”

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Tangent

Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also control the House, but Republicans hold the majority in the Senate.

Key Background

Harris leads Trump in five of seven battleground states, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages that show margins of less than three points in all seven battleground states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia, and wins North Carolina, as he’s expected to, he would need just one of the “Blue Wall” states to win the White House.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania (Forbes)

How Kamala Harris’ Views On Fracking Have Changed—After Backtracking On Ban (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 1 Point—As Her Lead Plateaus Before Debate (Forbes)

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Pennsylvania

What the war with Iran could mean for gas prices in western Pennsylvania

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What the war with Iran could mean for gas prices in western Pennsylvania


The war with Iran could start impacting your wallet as soon as today.

Jim Garrity from AAA East Central says oil prices are up.

“They’re hovering around $72. They were pretty consistently around $65, $66 for a while,” he said.

Nationally, AAA said the average for a gallon of regular sits at about $3, up approximately six cents from last week.

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In Pennsylvania, it’s around $3.12 a gallon, and in the Pittsburgh region, it’s around $3.24 a gallon. That’s actually down about four cents from last week.

Garrity added that gas prices this time of year would already be increasing, usually because of higher demand for the warmer months and the production of the summer blend of gas used for those months.

The impacts of what’s happening in Iran may not be immediate, which could be part of why our region and the state overall have not seen a spike yet, he said.

“It could be a couple of days later. It could be up to a week later,” Garrity said.

A lot of people are watching what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. Iran borders it to the north, and 20% of the world’s oil goes through it.

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Iran is one of the world’s biggest oil producers, and China gets a lot of that oil.

“If there is an impact there, you could see oil start to come in from other parts of the world, which has a downstream effect on [the United States],” Garrity said.

One way you can save on gas if prices increase in our area is by slowing down.

“When you drive faster every five miles, over 50 miles an hour, your fuel efficiency is going down,” Garrity said. “You’re making the car work harder, making the gasoline consumption less effective.”

Garrity added that in 2022, when our area and many others saw some of the highest gas prices ever recorded, people changed their driving habits.

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“We saw people make seemingly permanent changes to their driving behaviors, driving less in general, consolidating trips,” he said.



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Iran vows revenge after the killing of its top leader

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Iran vows revenge after the killing of its top leader


With energy affordability and reliability dominating headlines, state lawmakers peppered Pennsylvania Environmental Protection Secretary Jessica Shirley about the administration’s strategy to speed the addition of new power sources to the electric grid. Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee asked Thursday about the administration’s plans to ensure Pennsylvanians’ lights stay on as the commonwealth courts tech […]



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The 10 Friendliest Little Towns In Pennsylvania

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The 10 Friendliest Little Towns In Pennsylvania


Some Pennsylvania towns make it easy to feel included within a day of arriving. In Lititz, summer concerts at Lititz Springs Park turn into informal reunions, with families setting up lawn chairs side by side and local shop owners joining once they lock their doors for the evening. In Boiling Springs, the path around Children’s Lake doubles as a daily check-in point where walkers greet each other by name before drifting into the cafés along Front Street. And in Ligonier, the Diamond and its bandstand pull residents downtown for markets and community events that rely on volunteers rather than outside organizers. The same pattern carries through the rest of the towns on our list.

Lititz

Lititz, Pennsylvania: Exterior view of the Julius Sturgis Pretzel Bakery, via George Sheldon / Shutterstock.com

Lititz is in Lancaster County, about 6 miles north of the city of Lancaster. Founded in 1756, the town was named after a castle in Bohemia and initially served as a Moravian congregation settlement. Lititz is home to the Julius Sturgis Pretzel Bakery, established in 1861 as the first commercial pretzel bakery in the United States.

4th of July Parade in Lititz, Pennsylvania
4th of July Parade in Lititz, Pennsylvania. Editorial credit: George Sheldon / Shutterstock.com.

Lititz Springs Park, a historic community hub since 1756, hosts various yearly events, notably the well-known Lititz Fourth of July Celebration. For dining, the Appalachian Brewing Company provides locally brewed beers and a distinctive menu showcasing regional dishes. The Wilbur Chocolate Factory, a landmark since the late 1800s, includes a museum and shop where visitors can explore chocolate-making processes and buy unique confections.

Boiling Springs

A historical building in Boiling Springs, Pennsylvania.
A historical building in Boiling Springs, Pennsylvania.

Boiling Springs, in Cumberland County, owes its name to the natural artesian springs that maintain a constant temperature and were crucial to early ironworks in the area. Established in the 18th century, it is also part of the Appalachian Trail community, underscoring its long-standing connection to nature and history. The town’s historic district includes the Iron Furnace, dating to 1760 and a testament to Boiling Springs’ early industrial role.

The town features a variety of attractions for visitors and residents. Allenberry Resort and Playhouse, a historic venue since the mid-20th century, provides entertainment, dining, and lodging options. The Boiling Springs Tavern, founded in 1832, offers classic American cuisine in a historic environment. For outdoor enjoyment, Children’s Lake is perfect for fishing and relaxing walks, and the Appalachian Trail runs through the center of the community, offering great hiking opportunities.

Jim Thorpe

Landmark buildings in the historic town of Jim Thorpe, Pennsylvania.
Landmark buildings in the historic town of Jim Thorpe, Pennsylvania. Image credit Dan Hanscom via Shutterstock

Jim Thorpe sits in the Lehigh Gorge in eastern Pennsylvania, and was originally known as Mauch Chunk and played a pivotal role in the coal and railroad industries. Renamed in 1954 to honor the legendary athlete Jim Thorpe, the town retains a Victorian era charm, with much of its architecture preserved and celebrated. This heritage is evident in attractions such as the Asa Packer Mansion, built in 1861 by a philanthropist and railroad magnate, which now serves as a museum.

The historic downtown Jim Thorpe, Pennsylvania.
The historic downtown Jim Thorpe, Pennsylvania. Editorial credit: Alizada Studios / Shutterstock.com.

Visitors to Jim Thorpe can choose from various recreation and dining options. The Lehigh Gorge Scenic Railway provides a scenic ride through the mountains, perfect for enjoying the area’s natural beauty. Dining choices include Moya, famous for its upscale American dishes, and Stone Row Pub & Eatery, offering a relaxed atmosphere with local ingredients. Outdoor lovers can enjoy boating and hiking at Mauch Chunk Lake Park, making the town an attractive destination.

Ligonier

The Heritage United Methodist Church in Ligonier, Pennsylvania.
The Heritage United Methodist Church in Ligonier, Pennsylvania. Image credit woodsnorthphoto via Shuterstock.

Ligonier was established in the 1760s and features a rich colonial history highlighted by Fort Ligonier, a British fortification from the French and Indian War. The town square, known as the Diamond, is circled by original structures and a bandstand from the 19th century, reinforcing its historical ambiance.

The rural countryside town of Ligonier, Pennsylvania
The rural countryside town of Ligonier, Pennsylvania. Image credit Gage Goulding via Shutterstock

Fort Ligonier functions as both a museum showcasing 18th-century artifacts and a venue for reenactments and educational activities. The Southern Alleghenies Museum of Art enriches visitors with American art exhibitions. Dining options in Ligonier include the historic Ligonier Tavern, known for its local cuisine, and The Wicked Googly, famous for its vibrant atmosphere and live music. For outdoor leisure, Ligonier Beach offers a distinctive swimming experience with a historic pool from 1925.

Wellsboro

The downtown streets of Wellsboro are still illuminated with authentic gas street lamps
The downtown streets of Wellsboro are still illuminated with authentic gas street lamps. Image credit George Sheldon via Shutterstock

Wellsboro, located in Tioga County, was established in 1806 and acts as the gateway to the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon, also known as Pine Creek Gorge. The town exudes nostalgic charm with its gas-lit streets and historic Victorian buildings, offering a window into its storied history. A prime example of this history is the Penn Wells Hotel, which has been serving visitors since the early 1900s.

For those wanting to explore Wellsboro, the restored 1920s movie theater, The Arcadia Theatre, regularly features films and performances, serving as a cultural center for locals and visitors. The Native Bagel offers a relaxed dining atmosphere with dishes made from locally sourced ingredients. Outdoor lovers can enjoy Leonard Harrison State Park, which offers stunning views of the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon, along with trails and picnic spots. Furthermore, the annual Pennsylvania State Laurel Festival attracts crowds with its parade, arts and crafts, and local food stalls, honoring the area’s cultural traditions.

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Foxburg

Foxburg, Pennsylvania as seen from the old Foxburg Bridge
Foxburg, Pennsylvania as seen from the old Foxburg Bridge

Foxburg, situated along the Allegheny River in Clarion County, was founded in 1870. It is famous for being home to the oldest golf course still in operation in the United States, the Foxburg Country Club, established in 1887. This historical feature adds to its charming and distinctive character, blending small-town American charm with a deep golf tradition.

The Foxburg Wine Cellars offers tastings of locally produced wines, complemented by a scenic setting. For dining, the Allegheny Grille provides riverfront views alongside a menu featuring regional cuisine, emphasizing the town’s picturesque location. Culture enthusiasts can explore the American Golf Hall of Fame, located within the Foxburg Country Club, which houses a collection of golf memorabilia and artifacts. For outdoor activities, the nearby Allegheny River Trail offers miles of biking and walking paths, making Foxburg a destination with diverse appeal.

Honesdale

Colorful buildings on Main Street in Honesdale, Pennsylvania
Colorful buildings on Main Street in Honesdale, Pennsylvania. Editorial credit: Nina Alizada / Shutterstock.com.

Honesdale serves as the county seat for Wayne County and was founded in 1826. It has historical significance as the terminus of the Delaware and Hudson Canal, pivotal in the transport of coal to major markets in the northeast. Notably, Honesdale is credited with being the site of the first commercial steam locomotive run on rails in the United States, the Stourbridge Lion, adding a rich layer to its industrial heritage.

The Wayne County Historical Society presents exhibits on canal and railroad history, shedding light on the town’s growth. For dining, visitors can choose the upscale Hotel Wayne, known for its fine dining and bistro bar, or the more relaxed Trackside Grill, offering views of the historic railroad. Outdoor lovers can visit Honesdale Park, which has walking paths and recreational facilities, serving as a popular venue for community events and gatherings.

Milford

Downtown Milford, Pennsylvania.
Downtown Milford, Pennsylvania. Image credit: DenSmith via Flickr.com.

Milford is situated at the crossroads of the Delaware River and the Pocono Mountains’ foothills. Established in 1796, it rapidly gained popularity as a resort in the 19th century, thanks to its scenic landscape and fresh mountain air. The town is also renowned for the Milford Historic District, which features a range of well-preserved buildings that reflect its prosperous history.

The Columns Museum houses the famous Lincoln Flag, believed to be stained with Abraham Lincoln’s blood from the night of his assassination, providing a profound historical experience. For dining, Bar Louis at the Hotel Fauchère offers a contemporary menu in a stylish setting, while the Waterwheel Café provides a rustic atmosphere with live music and local cuisine. Additionally, Grey Towers National Historic Site, the former home of Gifford Pinchot, founder of the U.S. Forest Service, offers guided tours and scenic grounds.

Mount Joy

Twisted Bine Beer Co. is a small-scale microbrewery of craft beer with an onsite tasting room and farm to table restaurant that is located in Mount Joy, Pennsylvania
Twisted Bine Beer Co. is a small-scale microbrewery of craft beer with an onsite tasting room and farm to table restaurant that is located in Mount Joy, Pennsylvania, via Raymond C. Eichelberger / Shutterstock.com

Mount Joy was founded in 1759 and has a name derived from an old Irish ship, the “Mountjoy,” which played a pivotal role in breaking a siege during the Irish Confederate Wars. This town, nestled among the rich, rolling farmlands of the county, has historically been a hub for agriculture and today melds historic charm with modern vibrancy, evident in its revitalized downtown area.

Bube’s Brewery, an intact historic 19th-century brewery and museum, offers unique dining experiences in its catacombs and regularly hosts murder mystery dinners. The Country Table Restaurant is known for its comfort food and welcoming atmosphere, reflecting the town’s friendly spirit. For outdoor activities, Little Chiques Park provides scenic walking paths and picnic areas, perfect for family outings. Additionally, the annual “Mount Joy Winterfest” brings the community together with craft vendors, food, and entertainment, showcasing the town’s lively community spirit.

Lewisburg

The Campus in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania.
The Campus in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. Editorial credit: George Sheldon / Shutterstock.com

Lewisburg is a vibrant town established in 1785. It is home to Bucknell University, established in 1846, which adds a youthful energy and cultural richness to the town. Lewisburg’s downtown is listed on the National Register of Historic Places, featuring well-preserved 19th-century architecture and a tree-lined main street that enhances its historic charm.

A kiosk along Main Street in downtown Lewisburg, Pennsylvania.
A kiosk along Main Street in downtown Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. Editorial credit: George Sheldon / Shutterstock.com

In terms of activities and dining, Lewisburg offers a variety of choices that cater to both residents and visitors. The Campus Theatre, one of the few remaining single-screen art deco movie theaters in the country, offers a unique cinematic experience. For dining, Elizabeth’s American Bistro provides a fine dining experience using local ingredients, while the Bull Run Tap House offers a more casual atmosphere with a comprehensive selection of craft beers. For outdoor enthusiasts, Hufnagle Park offers a green retreat in the heart of the town, complete with walking paths and garden areas, making it a popular gathering place for community events and casual recreation.

As we journey through Pennsylvania’s coziest corners, we discover that these small towns do more than just charm visitors with their picturesque settings and historical backdrops. They invite us into a world where community spirit thrives and every street and alley tells a story. These towns, from Lititz’s pretzel-perfumed air to Lewisburg’s university vibes, showcase the true heart of Pennsylvania through their unyielding warmth and hospitality. Whether you’re seeking a serene retreat or a peek into America’s storied past, these towns offer a refuge where friendliness is the native language.

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