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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election

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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election


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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in Pennsylvania, according to two new polls this week in the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.

Key Facts

Harris leads by 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average—a recent Morning Consult poll found her up by three points, 49% to 46%, and a September CBS/YouGov poll showed Harris and Trump even, both at 50%.

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Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.

Pennsylvania has a 35% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has a 91% of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania, while Trump has a 96% chance of winning.

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Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.

Underscoring Pennsylvania’s weight in the 2024 election, ABC News chose to host the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris there, on Tuesday in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania is also significant to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white—a demographic Trump typically performs well with, though Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.

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Surprising Fact

No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan holds, she’s all but certain to win the White House.

Big Number

82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who said the economy is a major factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to the CBS/YouGov survey. The results are on par with the national electorate, according to a recent Pew Research survey of registered voters that found 81% of registered voters rate the economy as “very important” in the election.

Chief Critic

Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her previous endorsement of a fracking ban—Pennsylvania is the country’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said during a 2019 CNN climate town hall while she was running for president “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” has said she’s since changed her stance. During Tuesday’s debate, she said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she’s against a fracking ban, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted the Inflation Reduction Act opened new gas leases—reiterating a stance she took in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say she changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate—instead she said then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “will not end fracking.”

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Tangent

Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also control the House, but Republicans hold the majority in the Senate.

Key Background

Harris leads Trump in five of seven battleground states, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages that show margins of less than three points in all seven battleground states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia, and wins North Carolina, as he’s expected to, he would need just one of the “Blue Wall” states to win the White House.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania (Forbes)

How Kamala Harris’ Views On Fracking Have Changed—After Backtracking On Ban (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 1 Point—As Her Lead Plateaus Before Debate (Forbes)

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Pennsylvania

Fact check: A president can’t ban fracking in Pennsylvania | WITF

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Fact check: A president can’t ban fracking in Pennsylvania | WITF


Former President Donald Trump claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris would ban fracking if she is elected president, which she wouldn’t have the power to do.

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  • Susan Phillips

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Fact check: A president can’t ban fracking in Pennsylvania | WITF

FILE – Work continues at a shale gas well drilling site in St. Mary’s, Pa., March 12, 2020. Facing the need to win Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris has sworn off any prior assertion that she opposed fracking. But that hasn’t stopped Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump from wielding her now-abandoned position as to win over working-class voters in the key battleground state where the industry means jobs. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)

Fracking for natural gas in Pennsylvania took up significant airtime during the presidential debate Tuesday night at the National Constitution Center in Old City, especially when you consider how little influence a president has when it comes to drilling for oil and gas in the state.

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In such a tight presidential race, Pennsylvania will be a hard-fought swing state. So, of course, we have to talk about fracking.

Former President Donald Trump is all for it, and at Tuesday’s debate, he claimed Vice President Kamala Harris is not.

“And she will never allow fracking in Pennsylvania. If she won the election, fracking in Pennsylvania will end on day one,” Trump said.

There’s a big problem with Trump’s statement because a president can’t “ban fracking” in Pennsylvania, only an act of Congress will accomplish that.

When you hear talk about banning fracking by a president – that is limited to federal land. And the state has virtually no federal land to frack. The Allegheny National Forest, in the north central part of the state, is the only place where federal leases exist, and they span about 850 acres.

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The vast majority of leases are on private land, something a president cannot touch. The state also leases land to oil and gas development – in 2020 those leases included about 250,000 acres.

Harris, who favored a fracking ban when she first ran for president back in 2019, changed her position once she joined President Joe Biden as his vice-presidential running mate.

“Let’s talk about fracking because we are here in Pennsylvania,” she said. “I made that very clear in 2020.  I will not ban fracking. I have not banned fracking as vice president of the United States.”

To be clear, a vice president can’t ban fracking on any private or state-owned land in Pennsylvania either.

Vice President Harris did say correctly that oil and gas development has increased over the past four years under President Biden.

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In January, E&E News reported that federal leases for oil and gas development also increased under Biden.

And while most voters don’t make their presidential decisions based on fracking, it’s one of those issues where you’re either for it or against it. It’s what’s known as a wedge issue, which Trump is using to define himself in contrast to Harris, as he did in the 2020 race against Biden. This will likely continue despite both parties’ support for fracking, and the fact that it’s, again, not something a president can do much about in Pennsylvania even if they wanted to.

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Biden poses with children in pro-Trump attire in awkward photo op in swing state Pennsylvania

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Biden poses with children in pro-Trump attire in awkward photo op in swing state Pennsylvania


President Biden posed with a crowd of children decked out in pro-Donald Trump attire in an awkward photo op at a Pennsylvania firehouse on Wednesday.

The 81-year-old president looked uncomfortable as he stood in the middle of about 16 youngsters — many donning shirts in support of Trump — during a visit to a Shanksville firehouse to commemorate the 23rd anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks. 

The photo, shared on X by conservator influencer Benny Johnson, shows several of the kids wearing shirts with Trump’s face plastered on the front, including one with the former commander in chief in Terminator sunglasses with “I’ll be back” written on it. 

President Joe Bden posed for a picture with several kids wearing Donald Trump gear during his visit to Shanksville, Pa. on Sept. 11, 2024. X / Jana Musser

One less-than-enthused teen stood far off to Biden’s left and did not crack a smile.

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Biden brought beer and pizza to the firehouse following a wreath-laying ceremony at the memorial for United Airlines Flight 93, which was hijacked by Al Qaeda terrorists and crashed in rural Pennsylvania rather than hitting its intended target after passengers stormed the cockpit.

Biden attended a wreath-laying ceremony at the Flight 93 National Memorial as part of the nations’ ceremonies of the 23rd anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. AFP via Getty Images
Shanksville, located in Somerset County in central Pennsylvania, is a deep-red part of the battleground state where more than 77% of voters backed Trump in the 2020 election. AP

While at the firehouse, a man handed the president his red “Trump 2024″ hat, which Biden briefly put on his head before handing it back with a grin.

Shanksville, located in Somerset County in central Pennsylvania, is a deep-red part of the battleground state where more than 77% of voters backed Trump in the 2020 election.



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Pennsylvania

Guess what? A President can’t ban fracking in Pennsylvania

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Guess what? A President can’t ban fracking in Pennsylvania


This story is part of the WHYY News Climate Desk, bringing you news and solutions for our changing region.

From the Poconos to the Jersey Shore to the mouth of the Delaware Bay, what do you want to know about climate change? What would you like us to cover? Get in touch.


Fracking for natural gas in Pennsylvania took up significant airtime during the presidential debate Tuesday night at the National Constitution Center in Old City, especially when you consider how little influence a president has when it comes to drilling for oil and gas in the state.

In such a tight presidential race, Pennsylvania will be a hard-fought swing state. So, of course, we have to talk about fracking.

Advertisement

Former President Donald Trump is all for it, and at Tuesday’s debate, he claimed Vice President Kamala Harris is not.

“And she will never allow fracking in Pennsylvania. If she won the election, fracking in Pennsylvania will end on day one,” Trump said.

There’s a big problem with Trump’s statement because a president can’t “ban fracking” in Pennsylvania, only an act of Congress will accomplish that.

When you hear talk about banning fracking by a president – that is limited to federal land. And the state has virtually no federal land to frack. The Allegheny National Forest, in the north central part of the state, is the only place where federal leases exist, and they span about 850 acres.

The vast majority of leases are on private land, something a president cannot touch. The state also leases land to oil and gas development – in 2020 those leases included about 250,000 acres.

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