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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election

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Here’s Why Pennsylvania Might Be The Most Important Prize In The 2024 Election


Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in Pennsylvania, according to two new polls this week in the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.

Key Facts

Harris leads by 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average—a recent Morning Consult poll found her up by three points, 49% to 46%, and a September CBS/YouGov poll showed Harris and Trump even, both at 50%.

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Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.

Pennsylvania has a 35% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has a 91% of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania, while Trump has a 96% chance of winning.

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Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.

Underscoring Pennsylvania’s weight in the 2024 election, ABC News chose to host the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris there, on Tuesday in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania is also significant to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white—a demographic Trump typically performs well with, though Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.

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Surprising Fact

No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan holds, she’s all but certain to win the White House.

Big Number

82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who said the economy is a major factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to the CBS/YouGov survey. The results are on par with the national electorate, according to a recent Pew Research survey of registered voters that found 81% of registered voters rate the economy as “very important” in the election.

Chief Critic

Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her previous endorsement of a fracking ban—Pennsylvania is the country’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said during a 2019 CNN climate town hall while she was running for president “there’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” has said she’s since changed her stance. During Tuesday’s debate, she said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she’s against a fracking ban, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted the Inflation Reduction Act opened new gas leases—reiterating a stance she took in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say she changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate—instead she said then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “will not end fracking.”

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Tangent

Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also control the House, but Republicans hold the majority in the Senate.

Key Background

Harris leads Trump in five of seven battleground states, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages that show margins of less than three points in all seven battleground states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia, and wins North Carolina, as he’s expected to, he would need just one of the “Blue Wall” states to win the White House.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania (Forbes)

How Kamala Harris’ Views On Fracking Have Changed—After Backtracking On Ban (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 1 Point—As Her Lead Plateaus Before Debate (Forbes)

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‘Natural splendor at its best’: Penn’s Cave may become Pa.’s next state park

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‘Natural splendor at its best’: Penn’s Cave may become Pa.’s next state park


The boat dock at the entrance of Penn’s Cave.
HUNTER SMITH / THE EXPRESS

HUNTER SMITH / THE EXPRESS
The colored light room in Penn’s Cave.

BELLEFONTE — After four generations of family stewardship, the owners of Penn’s Cave and Wildlife Park are asking the state to take over one of Centre County’s most iconic attractions in an effort to preserve it from future development.

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Following remarks from CEO Russ Schleiden and his daughter, Jeanine Watson, the Centre County Commissioners on Tuesday endorsed the plan to make the natural wonder Pennsylvania’s 126th state park.

“This has been a very difficult decision for us,” said Schleiden. “But we feel that it’s a very important part of, not only Centre County, but the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and that it should be preserved in perpetuity.”

The Schleiden family has spent decades as custodians of America’s only all-water, limestone cavern, working to expand and conserve Penn’s Cave, which contains the headwaters of Penn’s Creek. To ensure the 1,400 acres of land and its waters are around for generations to come, the family is petitioning the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR) to designate the Penn’s Cave estate a state park and take over its stewardship.

The proposed transfer includes the cavern, Cave House, surrounding land and waterways, five homes and several barns. Watson said the family has been working toward the proposal for three years.

“I know the state, DCNR, has wonderful plans and visions for enhancing it and taking it to that next level beyond what we could do,” she said.

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Penn’s Creek, which starts in the cavern, flows 34 miles to Selinsgrove where it joins the Susquehanna River Basin before emptying into the Chesapeake. The state has made significant investments in protecting those waters, and the proposed transition would expand that work.

“The tributaries also support the native brook trout,” said Schleiden, naming specifically Little Poe and Big Poe creeks, which are known for their fishing.

Penn’s Cave, he said, has always been supportive of “wildlife for everyone.”

With the commissioners’ help, Penn’s Cave and Wildlife Park has invested $2 million into the local wetlands, protecting local fauna while improving the area’s accessibility. Schleiden said transferring ownership to the state would ensure that mission remains central to the property.

“We strongly desire this to go to the state to protect and continue to conserve, and have it available to the public,” Watson said.

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The property also carries historical significance. Penn’s Cave and Hotel was listed on the National Register of Historic Places in April 1978 for its local importance.

The Cave House, or hotel, was built in 1885 by the Long family, who first commercialized the cavern. At the time, visitors traversed the cave by boat using lanterns. That changed in 1927, when the Campbell family, who emigrated from Scotland to the land, electrified the cave.

“It probably had electricity before more than most of the local residents,” Schleiden said.

State Rep. Kerry Benninghoff, who helped coordinate with the state on the proposed transition, also joined the commissioners for the discussion.

Benninghoff said the move would require the endorsement of the governor and both chambers of the General Assembly. The governor is aware of the plan and visited the site last year, and Benninghoff said he has drafted legislation outlining the mechanics of the transition.

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“I can’t think of a better time in our country and our county’s history, at the semiquincentennial, to make this a reality,” he said. “If you want to look at Americana in its best, the park I think exemplifies that.”

“In the long run, I think this is a tremendous investment for the commonwealth,” Benninghoff said, noting the transition would not be easy but the commissioners’ endorsement could help move the project forward during this budget cycle.

The proposal also carries potential economic benefits for the region.

Penn’s Cave and Wildlife Park already attracts visitors from all 50 states and several countries. During its peak season, the park employs dozens of local community members. The attraction is a multigenerational employer in Gregg Township, providing jobs for members of the Schleiden family and their employees, many of whom are young adults and teens.

Transferring ownership to DCNR and becoming Pennsylvania’s 126th state park could increase tourism and economic engagement in the area, the owners said. State parks in rural communities often bring tourism dollars and expand employment opportunities as operations grow.

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Benninghoff said he could envision additional public amenities, including a campground, while emphasizing the property would remain accessible.

“This is not going to be an exclusive property that no one can access,” she said. “It’s actually one we want more people to enjoy.”

The commissioners each praised the work Schleiden and Watson have done and expressed support for the state park designation, citing the conservation, education, historical, tourism and recreational benefits of the proposal.

“Penn’s Cave is a premier tourist attraction in Centre County,” said Commissioner Mark Higgins, who noted it is one of only a few caves accessible by boat worldwide. “With the trout in the water and the wild animals surrounding it in the wildlife park, it’s a really, really fun half-day attraction to visit.”

“It’s just irreplaceable,” he said.

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Commissioner Amber Concepcion called the property “an outstanding area of natural beauty” and added that it provides an opportunity for education and recreation.

“It’s a great place for kids to learn and for adults and people of all ages to spend a summer afternoon,” she said. “It would make a fantastic state park.”

Dershem called the opportunity “once in a lifetime” and said it would be a “crying shame” if the property were developed instead.

“This is an amazing opportunity for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania to invest in a property that is literally irreplaceable, iconic to our region and unique. I don’t know that you’ll find anything quite like it,” Dershem said. “It’s an amazing place.”

Penn’s Cave, he added, “represents who we are in Centre County” and is “natural splendor at its best.”

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Benninghoff said their support will emphasize the urgency of completing the transition to state legislators.

“This endorsement by the county, visitors bureau and other people helps to emphasize that we’d really like to get this done, and time is of the essence,” he said. “People have been knocking on their door, wanting to purchase this land and break it all apart, and a lot of it would go into development.”



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60th annual Central Pennsylvania Festival of the Arts now underway in State College

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60th annual Central Pennsylvania Festival of the Arts now underway in State College


It was a strong opening day in State College for the 60th anniversary of the Central Pennsylvania Festival of the Arts.

The festival kicked off with the traditional children’s day festivities.

Kids lined South Allen Street, displaying and selling their latest creations.

6 News spoke with one of the young businessmen there — Trevor Winterich — who was busy with his 3D toys.

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On Thursday, the festival’s sidewalk sales open, featuring artists and performers from across the country.

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The festival will then wrap up on Sunday.



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Pennsylvania state trooper to be laid to rest after being fatally struck in Schuylkill County

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Pennsylvania state trooper to be laid to rest after being fatally struck in Schuylkill County


BUTLER TWP., Pa. (WPVI) — A Pennsylvania State Trooper who was killed in a crash on Interstate 81 will be laid to rest Wednesday.

A public viewing for Trooper Michael Pahira, Jr., is scheduled from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. at North Schuylkill High School in Butler Township.

A funeral will follow at 11 a.m.

Trooper Pahira was fatally struck on I-81 last week by a tractor-trailer while conducting a safety inspection on another truck in Cass Township, Schuylkill County.

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According to state police, a passing commercial vehicle hit Pahira while he was conducting the inspection with his emergency lights activated.

The alleged driver, 33-year-old Michael Bon, is facing homicide charges. He is being held on $700,000 bail.

Pahira, 44, was assigned to Troop L, Frackville and had been with the state police for 20 years.

Copyright © 2026 WPVI-TV. All Rights Reserved.



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