Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 40,000 votes in Pennsylvania on his way to winning the presidency in 2016, but native Scrantonian Joe Biden edged Trump by about 80,000 votes in the state four years ago.

Harris will be holding a rally in Erie, a Democratic majority city of about 94,000 people bordered by suburbs and rural areas with significant numbers of Republicans. Erie County is often cited as one of the state’s reliable bellwether regions, where the electorate has a decidedly moderate voting record. Trump visited Erie on Sept. 29.

Trump plans a town hall Monday at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center and Fairgrounds in suburban Oaks, hoping to drive up turnout among his supporters.

Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, have long made it a center of presidential electioneering. Democrats have won three straight elections for governor and both current U.S. senators are Democrats, but its legislature is closely divided and both parties have had recent success in statewide contests.

HARRISBURG — Companies have yet to claim a single dollar from a $2.6 billion tax credit package Pennsylvania enacted in 2022 to encourage natural gas use, hydrogen production, milk processing, and more.

Now, the Shapiro administration is floating a union-backed rewrite that would subsidize energy production and lower the bar to claim the credits. However, the legislature appears unlikely to take up such proposals before the end of the year.

The package includes four credits that would give tax breaks to companies if they reach certain investment and job creation benchmarks. One encourages the use of Pennsylvania milk to make dairy products, another incentivizes the production of hydrogen within the commonwealth, and a third promotes the making of semiconductors or conducting biomedical research.

The largest aims to reward companies for using Pennsylvania natural gas for manufacturing. First passed in 2020 and expanded in 2022, the credit authorizes up to $1.4 billion in tax breaks over 25 years to companies that use methane — a primary component of natural gas — to produce fertilizer or fuel. Texas-based Nacero announced such a facility for Luzerne County in 2021, but the company has repeatedly delayed the start of construction.

Without any takers for the credits, the Shapiro administration has circulated draft legislation that would convert the natural gas subsidy into one encouraging electricity production, according to a version of the bill viewed by Spotlight PA.

The new credit offers a power plant up to $100 million annually for three years. Facilities get less money if their prices exceed the average cost of energy as determined by PJM, the regional grid operator that serves Pennsylvania.

The proposed language does not restrict what type of fuel a power plant could use while claiming the credit. However, it says the energy produced should meet specific clean energy standards. These would likely include nuclear energy; renewables such as hydroelectric, solar, and wind; or, for fossil fuel-powered plants, the use of carbon capture to reduce emissions.

Rob Bair, president of the Pennsylvania State Building & Construction Trades Council, supports the concept.

The council represents tens of thousands of unionized electricians, carpenters, painters, and other construction workers who benefit from new projects, and holds considerable political sway, especially in an election year. Its constituent unions annually give millions of dollars to candidates and political committees.

Bair told Spotlight PA that he has pushed lawmakers to rewrite the program to encourage the growth of Pennsylvania’s energy industry, including nuclear, small-scale coal, and low-carbon hydrogen production. Doing so, he argued, could offset the loss of electricity generation and jobs caused by the shutdown of coal and gas plants.

“Let’s take the [tax credit] and let’s utilize it in a way that we incentivize electrical energy production in a clean, safe, environmentally friendly way,” Bair told Spotlight PA.

Backers of the original tax credit package included Bair, who argued the program would help Pennsylvania land several projects it was wooing at that time, including the Nacero plant to turn fracked methane into fertilizer, and a dairy processing facility.

Two years on, none of the projected facilities have landed in the commonwealth. Some went to other states, while others never materialized.

In a news conference last year, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro discussed lessons from a failed attempt to use the tax credits to attract dairy brand Fairlife. He named shorter permitting times and better financial incentives for companies as areas where he thinks the state could improve.

Shapiro underscored this goal in his 2024 budget address when he said he was “sick and tired of losing to friggin’ Ohio,” and argued Pennsylvania needs to cut red tape and develop shovel-ready sites for new projects.

Shapiro got both in the most recent state budget. The legislature gave the OK for Pennsylvania to borrow $500 million to provide grants or loans to encourage industrial development. It also approved a streamlined permitting process that allows companies to hire state-approved third-party reviewers in certain cases.

The draft bill circulated by the Shapiro admin would make it easier for companies in target industries to claim tax breaks by lowering the amount of money the businesses have to invest and the number of long-term jobs their projects must create.

Shapiro hasn’t said much publicly about his push to change the tax credits. During a news conference earlier this month, he said the “law is something that we … are considering how best to use for the benefit of Pennsylvania.”

A spokesperson for Shapiro told Spotlight PA the governor is “open to repurposing these tax credits to ensure they can be used effectively to create more jobs and opportunity.”

Other Democrats have largely stayed quiet on any brewing policy shifts, although some senior lawmakers have floated changes that acknowledge the credits must be rewritten to be useful.

State Rep. Rob Matzie (D., Beaver) proposed adding a subsidy that would support sustainable aviation fuel production, with a tax credit of up to $30 million each year. His ideas carry weight because he chairs the state House’s influential Consumer Protection, Technology, and Utilities Committee, through which major energy bills have passed in the past year.

Similarly, state Rep. Steve Samuelson (D., Northampton), who chairs the state House’s tax policy-focused Finance Committee, recently introduced a bill that would make the semiconductor manufacturing credit easier to claim.

State House Democratic spokesperson Elizabeth Rementer didn’t comment on whether chamber leaders would support a rewrite of the tax credits, but did say that the caucus is “constantly evaluating tax credit programs to ensure they’re being used properly and creating jobs.”

“If the … program is being underutilized it will be examined more closely,” she said.

Rewriting the program will likely be a harder sell in the GOP-controlled state Senate.

Majority Leader Joe Pittman (R., Indiana) said he hasn’t seen enough from Shapiro to be sold on the proposal.

“The administration spent a significant amount of time talking to outside interested parties on that issue … and spent no time talking to me or my team about what such a proposal would look like,” Pittman told Spotlight PA in August.

Pittman has personally been open to state programs to encourage energy production, repeatedly saying that he is interested in expanding small-scale nuclear reactors. He has also voiced concerns about the state’s long-term ability to produce enough energy for itself.

Other state Republicans are less inclined to hear Shapiro and the trades out.

State Sen. Kristin Phillips-Hill (R., York) voted against the original deal and said her skepticism of government handouts remains in place.

According to federal data, Pennsylvania is the second largest net supplier of energy to other states in the country. The excess energy goes to neighbors in Maryland and New York.

Those states, she’s argued, have allowed their fossil-fuel-powered plants to close while approving new data centers and other electricity-heavy industries powered by Pennsylvania.

As such, she argued that any subsidies offered by Pennsylvania would only subsidize other state’s “failed energy policies.”

“I just don’t see the benefit to Pennsylvanians,” said Phillips-Hill. “Am I going to support something that is going to continue to take Pennsylvania taxpayer dollars to subsidize the folly and irresponsibility of other states? Absolutely not.”

The Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative advocacy organization, recently put out an energy platform that echoes Phillips-Hill’s position, saying that it would not support any such tax credits or other state subsidies.

André Béliveau, the energy policy director at the Commonwealth Foundation, said that he understands the underlying impulse to bolster the industry and production. But he argues the legislature should do so by stripping back regulations and mandating that any changes to energy production maintain or improve grid reliability.

“We want to make sure we have reliable and affordable energy,” said Beliveau. “Subsidies are not the way to get there.”

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Republican Al Schmidt, Pennsylvania’s top election official, has crisscrossed his state in a campaign to spread the gospel of election security, four years after former President Donald Trump disputed the ballot count.

The swing state, with its 19 electoral votes, is critical to the campaigns of both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. It’s also a state with a law that prevents the early processing of mail-in ballots, which dragged out the state’s count in 2020. The anticipated lag this year has election officials bracing for conspiracy theories, protests and violence.

“That window of time between the polls closing and races being called, I think, has shown to be a real vulnerability, where people seeking to undermine confidence in those results if they’re going to lose have really exploited,” Schmidt said. 

Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballot process

Unlike many other states, Pennsylvania can only begin processing mail-in ballots on the morning of Election Day. 

It took four days to call the election in Pennsylvania in 2020. As those days passed, leaving the 2020 election results hanging in the balance, all eyes were on the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia. Police and protesters were outside while Schmidt and his fellow members of the Board of Elections oversaw the counting of a record 375,000 mail-in ballots, most of them from Democratic voters.

“When you have half of your voters vote by mail, like we did in 2020, counting those votes takes time,” Schmidt said.

At a ballot intake center in Chester County, elections administrator Karen Barsoum showed the two different envelopes each mail-in ballot arrives in.

“So, hypothetically speaking, if we have 100,000 mail-in ballots, we have to deal with double the amount of the envelopes, which is a long process,” Barsoum said. 

Then the ballot comes out and it needs to be unfolded and flattened out to remove creases. In all, it takes several minutes to process each mail-in ballot. 

Conspiracy theories take off 

Hours after the polls closed in 2020, then President Trump demanded the counting stop. Schmidt happened to be passing by a TV and heard Trump’s speech.

“We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list, OK?” Trump said at the time.

Schmidt brought together his communications team so they could reassure voters that the count would continue. Allegations of fraud spread as the mail-in ballots were counted.

“That’s when you start hearing about truckloads of ballots. And that’s when you start hearing about, you know, zombie voters,” Schmidt said. “That’s when all this other stuff really starts pouring in.”

At the end of Pennsylvania’s days-long count, the state was called for Joe Biden and, with that, he won the White House. But Trump continues to say that he won Pennsylvania in both 2016 — when he won by about 44,000 votes — and in 2020, when he lost by about 80,000 votes. 

“I understand that he’s a sore loser,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said. “I understand that he wished he would have won in 2020. But attacking this system made up of our neighbors from communities all across Pennsylvania, Republican and Democrat alike, is not the answer.”

Calls for reform, patience and faith 

In the wake of those four days in 2020, there were widespread calls to bring Pennsylvania in line with the majority of other states, where election workers get a head start on opening envelopes and flattening mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day. 

“Pennsylvania’s unique in that we have a divided legislature. We have a Democratic House and a Republican Senate,” Schmidt said. “So getting anything done related to election reform has certainly been a challenge.”

He has urged people to be patient with Pennsylvania. 

“Our counties are working night and day to count their voters’ votes,” Schmidt said. “They’re doing so as quickly as they can, and with integrity.”

In the leadup to Election Day, Schmidt is doing everything he can to take on the fears Trump continues to spread about Pennsylvania and to assure residents their votes will count.

“Elections in Pennsylvania have never been more safe and secure with a voter verified paper ballot record of every vote that’s cast, whether you vote in person on Election Day or you vote by mail,” Schmidt said.

Shapiro appointed Schmidt, who previously worked for a decade on Philadelphia’s Board of Elections, to the role of secretary of state last year. The governor was succinct when asked what Schmidt’s marching orders were.

“Do your job,” Shapiro said he told Schmidt. “Make it so legal, eligible voters have access to the ballot box and that we again have a free and fair, safe and secure election.”

Schmidt is now visiting each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties and meeting with voters. At a fair in deep red Columbia County, Schmidt spent more than 35 minutes trying to convince local Republicans that they can trust the voting system.

“Everything is on the line”

A recent poll found around a third of Americans – and nearly 70% of Republicans – still believe Biden didn’t legitimately win the 2020 election. Trump has refused to commit to accepting the results if he loses in November. If that happens, it could cause violence in the state, Shapiro said. It could also mean election officials face threats from Trump supporters.

“Am I worried about that? Am I concerned about that? Of course I am,” Shapiro said. 

Schmidt was threatened by Trump supporters after the 2020 vote when Trump called him out by name in a Twitter post. 

“There were threats early on that were pretty generic in nature,” Schmidt said. “As days went on, they became a lot more specific.”

Those threatening him put out his address and graphically described what they would do to his family, Schmidt said. A picture of his home was shared and his children’s names were listed repeatedly. Schmidt temporarily moved his family for their safety. There was round-the-clock security for months. 

Still, Schmidt is sticking with his job. 

“Everything is on the line,” he said. “Our entire system of government, our country as it was founded, is on the line.”