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Fears of ICE Raids Turn Streets Quiet in Heavily Hispanic Part of NYC

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Fears of ICE Raids Turn Streets Quiet in Heavily Hispanic Part of NYC

The taco joint just around the corner from Corona Plaza, the beating heart of one of New York City’s largest Latin American neighborhoods, fell quiet in the days after President Trump was inaugurated.

The restaurant’s Mexican waitress, who is undocumented, witnessed federal immigration authorities arrest someone a few blocks from the plaza, and now limits her time outside, afraid that being on the street leaves her more vulnerable to immigration agents. She dwells on the incident as she stares at empty tables once packed with immigrant families and construction workers.

Across the street, sales have plummeted at a Colombian bakery. The shop used to take in about $1,600 most mornings selling soups and pastries, but now makes about $900. Workers at the bakery scour WhatsApp groups for news of immigration raids in the neighborhood, even as the messaging app swirls with misinformation.

And at the Guatemalan restaurant at the edge of the plaza, fewer customers are dining in, with sales declining by about half. But takeout orders have picked up.

“Everyone calls for food now,” Linda Hernandez, 44, said as she served a baked tamal to one of four customers in the 20-seat restaurant in early February, next to a sign warning people not to open their doors to immigration authorities. “No one wants to sit down to eat.”

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From New York to California, Mr. Trump’s campaign to arrest and deport millions of undocumented immigrants has spread fear and consternation, instantly subduing once-lively neighborhoods across the United States.

The administration began with a media blitz, publicizing raids in big cities and deportation flights to Latin America. The showmanship was supported by some early numbers that showed an increase in immigration arrests, even as the authorities appear to be struggling to round up enough people to meet Mr. Trump’s mass deportation goals. The shock-and-awe tactic, however, has profoundly rattled immigrant communities.

Few neighborhoods in New York were paralyzed like Corona, a working-class enclave that is about 75 percent Hispanic, home to generations of immigrants from Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic and elsewhere.

But Corona was also one of the neighborhoods that swung most sharply toward Mr. Trump in last year’s election. Mr. Trump’s inroads, in Corona and elsewhere, exposed simmering tension between established immigrants and more recent arrivals who crossed the border during an era of more lenient Democratic policies.

Immigration, legal and otherwise, has long shaped this stretch of northern Queens. Waves of migration transformed Corona from an Italian stronghold at the turn of the 20th century into a magnet for African American families after World War II, and then a bustling hub for Central and South Americans in recent decades.

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That diversity has been most palpable in Corona Plaza, once a forlorn lot. The city paved it into a modest pedestrian plaza that quickly pulsated with life as vendors moved in to sell chorizos and cafe de olla, filling the air with a mix of Spanish dialects. Nearby, on Roosevelt Avenue, the aroma of Colombian coffee melded with the scent of lomo saltado from Peru, the blaring rhythms of cumbia and reggaeton and the roar of the elevated No. 7 train.

Many residents here crowd into cheap apartments with strangers. Most work the service jobs that form the backbone of the city’s economy: cleaning, cooking, building.

Many are undocumented.

So it was perhaps no surprise that the once-bustling plaza, and the streets around it, cleared out the day Mr. Trump was inaugurated. Immigrants stayed indoors. Food vendors retreated. And many people continued to stay off the streets as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents fanned out across the city a week later, an absence that hurt local businesses.

The combination of deportation fears, frigid temperatures and a recent police crackdown on illegal vending all helped mute the neighborhood — and created an eerily familiar scene in what was once the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. The virus killed hundreds in Corona and hobbled the area’s economic recovery.

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“It reminds me of Covid, but this is new,” said Fernando Cando, 48, who moved to Queens from Ecuador with his family in 1982, when he was a young boy. “If I were to sum it up with one word, it’s panic. We’ve never seen this.”

Mr. Cando owns Leticias, an Ecuadorean restaurant with dishes based on his mother’s recipes. He said he recently began brushing up on his workers’ rights in case ICE shows up at the restaurant. He has instructed the workers not to run from agents, and has wondered whether they could take refuge in the restaurant’s basement. Despite the fear, his workers continue to show up, even if diners aren’t always there with the same frequency.

ICE sightings — whether real, imagined or distorted on social media and text threads — dominate conversations. Some parents have stopped sending their children to school. And some families are talking about moving back to their home countries: the “self-deportation” that the Trump administration is actively encouraging.

Liliana Sanchez, who migrated from Mexico two decades ago, said she spotted ICE officers almost daily in the neighborhood after Mr. Trump took office, usually knocking on people’s doors. The sightings have been less frequent recently. But her two children, who are U.S. citizens, still call her after school to make sure she has not been detained in Corona Plaza while selling atole, a hot masa-based Mexican drink.

“They’re afraid for me every time I come sell,” Ms. Sanchez, 38, said in Spanish. “But if I stay home, who’s going to bring home the money for rent?”

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Immigration lawyers are being inundated with calls from immigrants seeking answers to basic questions: Can they go to work, seek care at hospitals and call the police to report a crime without being deported?

“The phones are ringing off the hook,” said Anibal Romero, an immigration lawyer whose office overlooking Corona Plaza has received as many as 700 calls a day since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, up from just under 100 a day. “We’ve frankly become an emergency room for mental health.”

Even so, the heightened anxiety, described by nearly two dozen Corona residents in interviews with The New York Times, belies a complicated reality.

In New York City, and across the country, Mr. Trump made significant gains in many working-class immigrant neighborhoods like Corona. He captured 46 percent of the national Latino vote on his way to victory and bucked conventional wisdom about Hispanics’ support of the Democratic Party.

Kamala Harris still won Corona with about 57 percent of the vote, but underperformed compared with Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020, who won the area with 77 percent of the vote. Mr. Trump garnered about 3,000 more votes in Corona in 2024 than in 2020, winning entire precincts and nearly doubling his vote share to 42 percent, up from 23 percent four years before.

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Mr. Trump won over Hispanics who were upset about the economy, but also tapped into resentment among established immigrants over what they regarded as preferential treatment — including temporary legal status, work permits and free shelter — given to migrants who arrived during the Biden administration.

In New York City, that pent-up frustration led to intense friction amid a three-year influx of 230,000 migrants who spilled into Corona and other neighborhoods. Longtime residents — even undocumented immigrants who can’t vote — raised quality-of-life concerns that many attributed to the recent arrivals.

Business owners in Corona Plaza complained about an increase in homelessness and street vendors without licenses in recent years. Local officials and residents lamented excessive trash and flashes of violence among intoxicated men who they said created visible disorder that scared off customers. And a prostitution problem long plaguing parts of Roosevelt Avenue grew worse.

That all led Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, to deploy more police officers to the area and crack down on brothels and illegal vending last year, leading to a noticeable decline in both.

For some Corona residents, it was too little, too late.

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Altagracia Fernandez, from the Dominican Republic, said the deteriorating conditions had nearly caused her to shutter the beauty salon she opened 35 years ago. Things got so bad, she said, that hosing down human excrement outside her shop became a regular morning chore.

“I always voted Democratic, but I couldn’t take it anymore,” said Ms. Fernandez, 63, who voted for Mr. Trump. “The situation got too severe. I’m fighting for what is mine,” she said, referring to her salon.

Pastor Victor Tiburcio, the spiritual leader of Aliento de Vida, a Pentecostal church on Corona Plaza with more than 2,500 congregants from 30 countries, has been grappling with those contradictions since Mr. Trump’s election.

On a recent Sunday, Mr. Tiburcio leaned on a message of hope. He urged worried churchgoers to be mindful of misinformation and not to fear calling 911 or going to the hospital.

“Don’t abstain from doing what you have to do out of fear for ICE,” he said in a crowded theater-turned-church, a glimmer of the vibrancy that has not been fully extinguished in the neighborhood. “Finding God is an SOS during these times.”

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In an interview after the service, Mr. Tiburcio, who migrated from the Dominican Republic 27 years ago, reflected on what he said was the silver lining of Mr. Trump’s crackdown. Almost overnight, he said, the president’s tough talk had scared off unruly migrants whom the pastor blamed for “fetid” conditions in Corona and for tarnishing the working-class values that defined immigrants.

“Those people that arrived here in the past few years — and I can’t say all of them, because I’m an immigrant, too — but we noticed something weird,” said Mr. Tiburcio, referring to instances of loitering and public drinking.

“Once Trump came in, they disappeared,” he continued. “Immigrants should be welcomed, helped. The Bible says that. But the Bible does not say that an immigrant has a right to delinquency.”

Other immigrants, though uneasy about the high-profile crimes committed by some recent arrivals, were more wary of stoking rifts between recent immigrants and those who have been here longer.

“It’s not resentment,” said Faviana Linares, who migrated from Mexico nearly three decades ago. “You have to be very brave to leave everything behind and bring your family here. I admire those people.”

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Ms. Linares, 47, left everything behind when she departed Puebla — so many people have migrated from the Mexican region that New York has become known as “Puebla York” — and settled in Corona. She has made a living cleaning apartments, initially for well below the minimum wage, while her husband works at restaurants. They are both undocumented, but their three children are U.S. citizens.

Like many mixed-status families, they have made emergency plans in case the parents are deported: Their 24-year-old daughter would become the guardian of the two other children.

Despite the ever-present possibility that the family will be separated — Ms. Linares has cousins who were deported — she said she has concentrated on transmitting hope to her children and neighbors amid the doom-and-gloom headlines.

Recently, that has meant channeling her energy into the immigrant advocacy group she belongs to, Make the Road New York, which opened a new office across from Corona Plaza in February, just as the neighborhood fell quiet.

“Our only crime was to cross that border,” Ms. Linares said. “It’s not fair to feel persecuted. All we came to do was to work with dignity.”

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Alex Lemonides and Keith Collins contributed reporting.

Audio produced by Patricia Sulbarán.

New York

New York’s BQE Is Falling Apart. The City Can’t Agree on How to Fix It.

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New York’s BQE Is Falling Apart. The City Can’t Agree on How to Fix It.

The triple cantilever runs along the edge of Brooklyn Heights, a wealthy and politically connected neighborhood. It stands as a symbol of resistance to Robert Moses, the power broker who rammed highways through communities.

When Mr. Moses tried that approach here in the 1940s, Brooklyn Heights residents pushed back, and Mr. Moses rerouted the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway around them.

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At the top sits the Brooklyn Heights Promenade, a cherished landmark with skyline views where generations of New Yorkers have come for their first date.

Below, two levels of traffic jut out like drawers pulled from a dresser. The highway is the main artery between Brooklyn and Queens, and it is part of Interstate 278, the only road that connects New York’s five boroughs.

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The cantilever, which opened in 1954, was designed to be used for 50 years. The risks only go up as it continues to deteriorate year after year, even as its life span has been extended with interim measures. While city officials and transportation engineers say imminent collapse is not a threat, other catastrophes could still strike, like concrete falling off and hitting vehicles.

Since 2018, two New York City mayors — Bill de Blasio and Eric Adams — have announced that they would fix this vital artery. But both administrations were unprepared for the ferocious community opposition to their ideas on how to proceed. Both struggled to build any consensus at all as local residents countered with their own ideas. The endless back and forth led to more delays and inertia.

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Traffic on the triple cantilever passes through Brooklyn Heights.

Erin Schaff/The New York Times

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The standoff over the B.Q.E. has become, more broadly, a symbol of the power that local communities wield over critical infrastructure projects around the nation.

Though community opposition is hardly new, it is thriving today as residents have become more nimble and sophisticated at influencing projects, or halting them entirely. They strategize about just who to target with their ads and protests, assemble technical experts and consultants to argue on their behalf, and extend their reach with email blasts, online petitions and social media.

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In Los Angeles, a plan to widen the 710 Freeway, one of the nation’s busiest freight corridors, was canceled in 2022 amid community opposition. A major street improvement project in Detroit was paused last summer, in part over the public’s concerns about its design, while state officials took another approach. And a Buffalo project championed by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to reconnect communities divided by a highway stalled recently after a state court ruled in favor of critics.

This community pushback is often characterized as NIMBYism — the “not in my backyard” impediment to change — but the reality is more nuanced. Many Brooklyn residents say they are not against improving the B.Q.E., and, in fact, are fighting for a better future with less traffic and more space for people.

But now, time is running out for the triple cantilever.

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A highway in decay

The cantilever structure anchors a 1.5-mile stretch from Atlantic Avenue to Sands Street that is owned by the city. The rest of the 16-mile highway belongs to the state.

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Source: OpenStreetMaps.

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The New York Times

Even before the latest effort, state transportation officials had sought to rehabilitate the cantilever section in 2006. They dropped the project in 2011, citing fiscal concerns and other priorities. That left the problem to the city.

The triple cantilever was increasingly flagged for potential safety hazards, said Bojidar Yanev, a former city transportation official who oversaw inspections from 1989 to 2018. “The structure was unraveling,” he said.

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Since at least 1996, the city has fastened metal mesh sheets to the underside of the roadway, particularly below joints, as a stop-gap measure to hold crumbling concrete in place and prevent accidents.

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Photo by Helmuth Rosales/The New York Times

The growing areas protected by the mesh sheets became the most visible sign of the triple cantilever’s decay. It was not easy to inspect the internal structure, which was enclosed in concrete like a catacomb, Dr. Yanev said.

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Inspectors cut openings into the walls of the cantilever in 2016, finding that water and road salt had penetrated the structure at the joints. This caused the steel rebars in the concrete to corrode and expand, forcing chunks of concrete to fall off. Without major structural intervention, this degradation progressively weakens the triple cantilever’s strength.

In September, Times reporters captured video of the undersides of the triple cantilever to understand the structure’s current state.

Analysis of the footage revealed hundreds of steel mesh sheets placed along the structure’s undersides, including at the cantilever’s deteriorated joints, to hold the concrete in place.

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Note: Locations of steel mesh sheets are based on videos captured in September by The Times of the triple cantilever’s undersides.

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The New York Times

City officials say the triple cantilever is safe until at least 2029, with current protective measures. They closely monitor the structure and have taken steps to stabilize it, including making repairs and installing sensors to ticket overweight trucks. After that time, the city may have to further restrict traffic to reduce weight on the cantilever.

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First wave of ideas

Mayor de Blasio’s administration presented two options in 2018 to rebuild the cantilever, touching off the fiercest battle over the B.Q.E. since it was built.

Polly Trottenberg, then the city transportation commissioner, told residents in Brooklyn at the time that “none of the options are going to be very lovable, and that’s the challenge we face.”

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One option would rebuild the highway lane by lane and reroute traffic around the construction. The more controversial proposal, favored by the city, would erect a temporary six-lane highway over the promenade while the lower decks were rebuilt.

Both options would mean losing access to the promenade for years, but the temporary highway would also bring traffic, noise and pollution right to the doors of Brooklyn Heights.

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Furious residents rallied to save the promenade. They raised tens of thousands of dollars to fund their campaign, hired public relations and lobbying consultants, and started a petition that garnered more than 70,000 signatures.

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Of course, the promenade itself was born from an earlier fight with Mr. Moses. In 1942, the Brooklyn Eagle newspaper learned that a new highway could cut through the neighborhood and warned: “Plan for Express Highway Through Heights Is Shocking.”

Residents demanded that it be pushed toward the industrial waterfront and suggested building a “double-decker highway” to take up a smaller footprint, and a roof to cover the noise and fumes — which became the promenade.

Mr. Moses later wrote that “the two shelves of the cantilevers carrying commercial traffic and the overhanging cantilever roof for the promenade and park were designed for the greatest benefit to the Heights.”

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A view of the promenade then and now.

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The New York Times archives (left); Bedel Saget/The New York Times

This time, many Brooklyn residents, as well as architects and urban planners, looked to places like San Francisco, Seattle and Rochester, N.Y., that have torn down or repurposed highways to reconnect neighbors and create more housing, parks and transit.

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Two alternatives to the city’s ideas illustrate how Brooklyn residents see this as an opportunity to make radical changes that would benefit their neighborhoods and the city.

Mark R. Baker, a lawyer, businessman and parks activist, proposed in 2019 to move all the traffic to street level and enclose it in a ventilated tunnel. The cantilever would become a three-level park, called the “Tri-Line,” similar to Manhattan’s High Line.

“We had to protect the promenade, which is one of the most spectacular open spaces in New York City or the world, really,” Mr. Baker said.

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Roy Sloane, a graphic artist and advertising executive, advocated for his earlier idea from 2010 for a tunnel, which would help divert traffic away from the cantilever section.

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The “Cross Downtown Brooklyn Tunnel” — which would become the new alignment for Interstate 278 — would alleviate the traffic and pollution that spills off the B.Q.E. onto streets in the area. The triple cantilever could then be rehabilitated for cars and light trucks going between neighborhoods, and, with less traffic, nearby sections of the highway could also be turned into boulevards.

“Through traffic is the issue for the residential neighborhoods that are parallel to the B.Q.E.,” Mr. Sloane said.

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Other notable concepts included one by Bjarke Ingels Group to transform the triple cantilever into “BQ-Park,” a grander version of Mr. Baker’s Tri-Line. The City Council, working with Arup, an engineering firm, floated an idea to demolish the triple cantilever and replace it with a three-mile bypass tunnel.

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After hearing from residents, Scott Stringer, then the city comptroller in 2019, jumped in with a proposal to limit the cantilever to trucks, while adding bus and bike lanes and a park.

City officials promised to consider all these ideas. Mr. de Blasio, a former Brooklyn councilman with deep ties to the borough, convened a panel of experts to study the B.Q.E.

The panel reported in January 2020 that the cantilever was in worse shape than believed and called for safety measures, including removing two of the six traffic lanes to reduce vehicle weight.

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The steel and concrete triple cantilever has deteriorated over the years, and various ideas to renovate or overhaul it have failed to gain traction.

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Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

Carlo A. Scissura, who led the panel, said the city was not ready to choose among the various concepts without more comprehensive engineering studies. “It would have just been like, ‘Oh, this looks beautiful, let’s just do it,’ ” he said.

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When the coronavirus gripped New York in March 2020, resources shifted to the health crisis, and the momentum to fix the B.Q.E. was lost.

Shortly before leaving office, Mr. de Blasio said the city would postpone a permanent solution and instead spend more than $500 million to shore up the B.Q.E. for 20 years.

Second wave of ideas

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After Mr. Adams became mayor in 2022, he decided the B.Q.E. could no longer wait. He hoped to tap into federal infrastructure funds unlocked by the Biden administration and start construction within five years.

Mr. Adams had opposed the city’s temporary highway idea in 2019 as Brooklyn borough president. And his new administration presented three new concepts — “The Stoop,” “The Terraces” and “The Lookout” — that shifted the focus to open space.

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The Stoop grew out of community interest in BQ-Park, the idea proposed by Bjarke Ingels Group in 2019. City officials hired the firm to help pressure test BQ-Park, only to find that it could not be built because of infrastructure constraints. The Stoop was developed as an alternative concept, but was later shelved amid criticism from residents about the design.

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Vishaan Chakrabarti, an architect and urbanist, said that many of the visions for the B.Q.E. did not fully consider engineering and cost constraints. “Communities get enamoured with ideas that aren’t viable, and then they start thinking worse of the ideas that are viable,” he said.

City officials said the B.Q.E. was an important economic artery, and that without it, trucks would jam nearby streets. They tried to strike a balance between a safe, modern highway and quality-of-life concerns, they said.

Since 2022, they have held 30 public meetings about the B.Q.E. In response to feedback, they committed to a plan that would not impact the promenade or Brooklyn Bridge Park, or require taking private property. They helped secure a $5.6 million federal grant to improve neighborhoods along the state-owned sections.

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Still, many Brooklyn residents complained about a lack of transparency. They said many of their questions were not fully answered and their suggestions went nowhere.

As public discussion evolved over the years, three broad groups of stakeholders emerged: neighbors, dreamers and pragmatists.

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The neighbors saw an opportunity to improve public transit and to reduce the impact of traffic on their health, safety and climate. The dreamers went further and envisioned tearing down the highway for more housing, businesses and parks, and shifting to more sustainable ways to move people and freight. The pragmatists focused on maintaining a vital traffic corridor that would still be needed in the future and fixing a cantilever that had become a safety hazard as soon as possible.

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Three broad groups of stakeholders of the B.Q.E. project are neighbors, dreamers and pragmatists — each with its own vision for the future of the expressway.

Bedel Saget / The New York Times

A leading voice of the neighbors was Lara Birnback, the executive director of the Brooklyn Heights Association, who said the city should develop “a more holistic, forward-thinking solution.” The association, which is part of the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway-Environmental Justice Coalition, has called for a corridorwide plan.

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“Our perspective at this point is, let’s not spend billions and billions of dollars cementing the status quo, no pun intended, by shoring up the cantilever for 100 years,” Ms. Birnback said.

In the dreamer camp was the Institute for Public Architecture, which highlighted the harmful legacy of the B.Q.E. through community meetings, an oral history project and a documentary by Adam Paul Susaneck, an urban planner. The dreamers asked: What would a future without the B.Q.E. look like?

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Antonio Reynoso, the Brooklyn borough president, said he saw a future with more freight moving on the waterways and less reliance on polluting highways like the B.Q.E. He told city transportation officials that he would like them to explore the option of tearing down the cantilever. But he said that option was never presented in community meetings.

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Aerial photo by Vincent Alban / The New York Times

Pragmatists like Samuel I. Schwartz, a former chief engineer for the city Transportation Department who established a transportation research program at Hunter College, urged city officials to immediately fix the cantilever and leave amenities like parks to be added later. He pointed to the Williamsburg Bridge as a cautionary lesson. In April 1988, it was shut down for more than a month after decades of neglect, causing widespread chaos.

“There should be urgency,” he said, “because something is going to happen if nothing is done.”

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Third wave of ideas

Many New York projects have run into opposition, like the $10 billion plan to replace the Port Authority Bus Terminal that was substantially revised last year with community input. “Community opposition is a way of life,” Mr. Schwartz said. “It doesn’t mean we stop.”

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But the B.Q.E. has often seemed adrift, without a strong champion at the helm to build consensus. Communities have a right to speak out, and “the job of government is to hear the voices and then whittle it down into something that works,” Mr. Stringer said.

Brooklyn Councilman Lincoln Restler said the Adams administration has seemed more interested in checking a box than really collaborating with the community. Any plan for the B.Q.E., he added, faces multiple layers of government review and approvals and will require community support to move forward. “We’ve got a long way to go,” he said.

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Cars in a traffic jam near the north end of the triple cantilever during rush hour in September.

Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

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In 2024, the Adams administration presented another concept for the B.Q.E. — the city’s third attempt — this time emphasizing an engineering solution: a two-level, stacked highway that would be supported on both sides.

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Marc Wouters, an architect and urban planner, countered with yet another idea. In 2019, he had partnered with the Brooklyn Heights Association on a plan to protect the promenade. Since then, he has spent thousands of hours working on his own to take field measurements, build 3-D models and test engineering scenarios.

The result is the “Streamline” plan, which would be quicker to build, cost less than other options, and have minimal impact on the promenade and surrounding area, Mr. Wouters said. It would move all traffic to an expanded bottom deck and repurpose the upper deck for bike lanes and a park.

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“I’m hoping that it advances because it does seem to check a lot of boxes off for the community,” he said.

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Last month, Mayor Adams urged Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to start the environmental review process for the B.Q.E., which would consider a range of plans and allow construction to begin in 2029. “After a fix for the B.Q.E. languished for decades, the Adams administration advanced this project further than ever before to build a safe, resilient highway,” said Anna Correa, a spokeswoman for Mr. Adams, this week.

But a new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, will take over in January and may have his own ideas. Mr. Mamdani knows that protecting the safety and stability of the B.Q.E. is “an urgent priority for the city,” said his spokeswoman, Dora Pekec. “After years of patchwork fixes that have only offered temporary fixes, the Mamdani administration will work to deliver a permanent solution for the city-owned sections of the B.Q.E. that both meets community needs and preserves this essential transportation corridor,” she said.

That will not be a quick or easy process. Big hurdles remain, including how to pay for the project. It was passed over for federal funding in 2024 and could cost up to $5 billion, depending on the plan chosen.

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“I think the B.Q.E. has just bedeviled and frustrated everybody who’s ever driven on it, looked at it, and worked on it — it’s like a curse,” Ms. Birnback said.

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An aerial view of the triple cantilever.

Bedel Saget/The New York Times

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Note: The ideas illustrated in the story are schematic interpretations by The New York Times, based on the original proposals.

Video at the top of this article by Todd Heisler. Additional work by Nico Chilla.

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Video: Workers Inflate Balloons Ahead of Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

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Video: Workers Inflate Balloons Ahead of Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

new video loaded: Workers Inflate Balloons Ahead of Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

Teams of workers in New York City began inflating balloons on Wednesday for the 99th Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

By Jamie Leventhal

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November 26, 2025

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The Disaster to Come: New York’s Next Superstorm

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The Disaster to Come: New York’s Next Superstorm

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The largest city in the country is mostly a cluster of islands. Its inlets and rivers rise and fall with the tides.

When a hurricane pushes the ocean ashore, it produces a storm surge, an abnormal rise of water that creates deadly flooding. This is what happened in New York during Sandy. As climate change causes sea level rise, storm surges, which can travel upstream through the city’s tidal rivers, will become more dangerous.

But a warming climate also brings a newer threat: heavy, rapid downpours that overwhelm New York’s outdated sewer and subway systems and inundate neighborhoods that lie outside hurricane evacuation zones. In October, two New Yorkers died from flash floods after a sudden burst of rain.

Sandy produced a deadly storm surge, and in 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Ida introduced the damage of extreme rainfall. The next hurricane could bring both.

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It would not have to be a major one. A weaker hurricane, dumping sheets of rain and moving in a northwest direction from the ocean, would wreak havoc, experts said.

First Street, a climate risk group in Manhattan, created a model of the damage a storm on such a track could have. In this example, a Category 1 hurricane would make landfall in New Jersey at high tide like Sandy, amid rainfall of four inches per hour — one of the more extreme scenarios.

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The results showed a 16-foot storm surge, two feet higher than Sandy’s, which when combined with a torrential downpour, could put 25 percent of the city under water.

Today, such a storm is not impossible. It could happen about once every century, said Jeremy Porter, who leads the group’s climate implications research. “But it will become more normal with the changing climate,” Dr. Porter said.

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Some of Manhattan’s most iconic spots would be submerged. Downtown, that would include parts of Chinatown, SoHo and the financial district.

In Midtown, several feet of water would pool above long-paved-over creeks. This includes the theater district and areas near Madison Square Garden.

In the Bronx, Yankee Stadium would be nearly surrounded by water, up to 11 feet in places.

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Highways that hug Manhattan would see up to 10 feet of flooding, while farther north, a part of the Cross Bronx Expressway that dips before an underpass could be submerged up to 47 feet.

But Manhattan and the Bronx would largely fare better than the boroughs that border the ocean. Brooklyn, Staten Island and Queens, with miles of low-lying neighborhoods and dire drainage problems, would bear the brunt – over 80 percent – of the flooding.

Property damage across the city could exceed $20 billion, twice as much as Sandy caused, according to First Street.

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Large-scale plans to protect the entire city from storms are underway, but they are years from approval. “We need mobilization at the scale of World War II to really deal with this problem,” said Thaddeus Pawlowski, who teaches urban design at Columbia University. “We’re in trouble.”

Here are some of the neighborhoods, starting inland and moving toward the coast, that would see the worst of the destruction.

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Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brooklyn, could see as much as 11 feet of stormwater.

A large hilly ridge cuts through the middle of Staten Island, Brooklyn and Queens. Its natural elevation provides some of the city’s most spectacular views.

The ridge, called the terminal moraine, is where a glacier stopped its advance some 18,000 years ago. The moraine also is where flooding from extreme rainfall can be particularly bad, impacting neighborhoods where it slopes down and levels out.

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Bedford-Stuyvesant, in Central Brooklyn and north of the moraine, could see as much as 11 feet of stormwater, including along tree-lined streets with brownstones worth millions. Ground-floor apartments that can rent for as much as $4,000 would fill up like cisterns.

South of the moraine, East Flatbush could see nearly eight feet of water.

Four years ago, rains from Ida flooded the streets here.

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“Water was gushing in from everywhere,” said Renée Phillips, 62, a 50-year resident. “That storm was something I’d never seen in my lifetime,” Ms. Phillips said. “And I hope and I pray that I never see it again.”

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This October, Ms. Phillips’s street flooded again. Her 39-year-old neighbor drowned in his basement apartment.

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Ms. Phillips outside her home. Though she rents out apartments on the first floor, maintaining them is difficult because of water damage.

Based on First Street estimates, her house could face up to six feet of flooding in the next storm.

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After Ida, Ms. Phillips escaped by wading through her flooded street while carrying two dogs and a cat. Her waterlogged property grew mold and the first floor had to be gutted.

She did not have flood insurance because she did not live in a designated flood zone. Ms. Phillips took out a loan for $89,000 to replace her boiler and fix the first floor. She was just beginning to consider repairs on the rest of her property when the deluge this fall set her back again. The boiler she had installed after Ida was destroyed, leaving her without heat.

“I’m distraught,” said Ms. Phillips, who was grieving her next door neighbor, and panicked about her finances.

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“I feel like I have no control over the situation,” she said.

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Kissena Park, a residential neighborhood in East Flushing, Queens, could get over 19 feet of storm water.

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Ida flooded basement and first-floor homes here, killing three people.

Three years later, in 2024, at a community meeting, Rohit Aggarwala, the city’s climate chief and the commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection, explained the reasons to residents.

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“The area is a bowl,” he said. Kissena Park also was built over waterways and wetlands, he added.

But there was a third factor, Mr. Aggarwala said: A major sewer artery was there, responsible for 20 percent of storm and wastewater in Queens. When the sewer got overwhelmed, it created a bottleneck in Kissena Park.

All of these forces were at work during Ida.

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Michael Ferraro, 32, who works in information technology, was returning from moving his car to higher ground, when he discovered that his street had turned into a raging river.

“I tried to swim, but the currents were taking me down,” he said, explaining that grabbing onto a fence saved his life.

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Michael Ferraro’s home was inundated during Ida. His neighborhood flooded again this fall.

Based on First Street estimates, his house could be completely submerged during the future storm they projected.

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Upsizing the sewer for Kissena Park would cost billions and take decades, according to the city’s Department of Environmental Protection.

A bluebelt project, which stores excess water in natural holding areas until sewers can process it, is being designed for the neighborhood. But it will not be ready for 10 years.

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Hamilton Beach, just west of Kennedy Airport, was built over coastal wetlands. The neighborhood could see up to nine feet of flooding.

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Southeast Queens was once mostly salt marsh, which provided crucial protection against flooding. But over the years, city leaders filled the marshes in to build neighborhoods, highways and Kennedy Airport.

This happened all over New York. Nearly one million New Yorkers now live on what were once wetlands, according to the Regional Plan Association, an urban planning and research group.

The water frequently returns.

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In Hamilton Beach, when the tide is higher than usual, water pours into the neighborhood from a nearby basin and up through the sewers.

This August, on a clear evening, it flooded again. Some residents moved their cars to higher ground. Others, walking home from work, borrowed plastic bags from neighbors to wrap around their shoes. Sump pumps wheezed, and garbage bags floated through the streets.

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Roger Gendron, 63, a retired truck driver and neighborhood flood-watch leader, took it in from his second-floor porch. “A storm that is hundreds of miles off the coast is doing this,” he said. “Just imagine what a direct hit would do.”

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In August, tidal flooding, a regular occurrence in Hamilton Beach, forced residents to roll up their pants and move their cars.

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Roger Gendron at his house in Hamilton Beach. Water could rise to his second-floor porch in a storm, according to First Street projections.

Hamilton Beach and other areas surrounding Jamaica Bay, the largest wetland in New York City, are prone to compound flooding, when heavy rain and coastal flooding combine.

The water table (where the saturation of the ground stops) is high in southeast Queens for multiple reasons: Sea level rise increases the water table, the city stopped pumping the area for drinking water in the 1990s, and perhaps most important, southeast Queens does not have a comprehensive storm-water drainage network.

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The Department of Environmental Protection, which oversees the city’s water systems, has a 50-year plan to build out such a network. It is 10 years in and has spent over $1.5 billion so far. The work includes a major sewer expansion north of Kennedy Airport.

“If the airport were still a wetland, we wouldn’t have to build a gigantic sewer under the highway,” said Mr. Aggarwala, the head of the department, on a recent tour of the work site.

In 40 years, once the entire system for southeast Queens is complete, the pipes here and in other parts of the network will be able to transport over one billion gallons of storm water to the bay.

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And this is just one corner of the city. It will take at least 30 years and about $30 billion to improve the parts of the sewer system that are the most vulnerable to storm water, Mr. Aggarwala said.

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The centerpiece of sewer work in southeast Queens is a project just north of Kennedy Airport, shown here in August.

Throughout New York, city leaders are reckoning with decisions that were made some 100 years ago to build infrastructure on wetlands.

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“The work is endless,” said Jamie Torres-Springer, president of construction and development for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, during a recent tour of a subway yard.

The 30-acre subway yard in the eastern Bronx — the city’s third largest — was built over a salt marsh, where a tidal creek used to flow. Of the transit system’s 24 subway yards, which maintain and store thousands of train cars, 13 are vulnerable to storm surge.

The city’s two biggest yards now have flood walls, drainage improvements and other protections. Work on the eastern Bronx yard is scheduled for next year.

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In Brooklyn, Coney Island would be under up to six feet of water, with bridges and roads washed out.

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Projected flooding is not shown along the beachfront because of uncertainty in the data caused by concurrent tidal activity.

Sandy devastated the Brooklyn peninsula.

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“We’re afraid every day that it’s going to happen again,” said Pamela Pettyjohn. During the superstorm, a sinkhole opened under her home.

Ms. Pettyjohn, who is in her 70s, lives near the famous amusement park, where oceanside development has spawned new high-rises, built to withstand floods.

She and other residents are concerned that the new developments, some of which include higher sidewalks and elevated bases that encourage water to flow under, around or through them, could worsen flooding in lower-lying areas, while taxing an already-overburdened sewer system.

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And, with few ways on and off the peninsula, the addition of thousands of residents here could make a hurricane evacuation even more perilous.

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Pamela Pettyjohn placed a flood barrier outside her home before a storm this summer.

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Her house could face nearly six feet of flooding.

After Sandy, Ms. Pettyjohn, a retiree, spent her savings rebuilding her home. She is living without heat because salt water from the storm slowly rusted out her boiler. The soaring cost of flood insurance keeps her from buying a new one, she said.

As the housing crisis deepens in New York, more homes are cropping up in flood zones like Coney Island. New properties must be elevated at certain heights and have other protections, but older homes do not have these requirements. So New Yorkers like Ms. Pettyjohn get trapped in money pits, unable to relocate. Others buy older homes because they are more affordable.

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It drives Joe Tirone, a real estate broker in Staten Island, crazy. “There is no fear whatsoever,” he said during a tour of Midland Beach, a neighborhood known for its historic bungalows.

During Sandy, many bungalows in Midland Beach flooded, and they have since been repaired and put up for sale. Some are so inexpensive that New Yorkers can own them outright. Two neighboring bungalows, for example, are on sale as a package deal for $325,000, in a city where the median price for one home is about $800,000.

Without a mortgage, though, there is no mandate to buy flood insurance. Some homeowners could lose everything in the next hurricane.

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“People are still deniers here,” Mr. Tirone said. They will continue to snatch up real estate deals in flood zones, he continued, until the government dictates to them otherwise.

He added: “The question is, ‘What’s that going to take?’ ”

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Methodology

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Floodwater depths visualized in this article are based on a flood model produced by First Street, a group based in Brooklyn that models climate risks. For this article, First Street estimated floodwater levels across New York City if a Category 1 hurricane would hit the city on a path similar to Superstorm Sandy’s, combined with rainfall at a rate of four inches per hour.

The 3-D base map in this article uses Google’s Photorealistic 3D Tiles, which draw from the following sources to create the tiles: Google; Data SIO; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; U.S. Navy; National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans; Landsat / Copernicus; International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean; Vexcel Imaging US, Inc.

Times journalists consulted the following experts: Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University; Paul Gallay, Klaus Jacob, Jacqueline Klopp and Adam Sobel, Columbia University; Franco Montalto, Drexel University; Amal Elawady, Florida International University; Ali Sarhadi, Georgia Institute of Technology; Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Lucy Royte and Eric W. Sanderson, New York Botanical Garden; Zachary Iscol, New York City Emergency Management; Andrea Silverman, New York University; Fran Fuselli, Northwest Bronx Community and Clergy Coalition; Bernice Rosenzweig, Sarah Lawrence College; Brett Branco and Deborah Alves, Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay, Brooklyn College; Philip Orton, Stevens Institute of Technology; Jorge González-Cruz, University at Albany, SUNY; Stephen Pekar and Kara Murphy Schlichting, Queens College, CUNY; Tyler Taba, Waterfront Alliance.

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