President Joe Biden in Goffstown, N.H. on March 11, 2024.
Democrats have all but owned the Granite State’s four Electoral College votes, winning seven of the past eight presidential contests – including Joe Biden’s eight-point victory over President Donald Trump in 2020.
But the latest NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll finds Biden tied with Trump in New Hampshire, putting him at risk of becoming the first Democrat to lose the state since Al Gore in 2000.
The survey of 862 registered voters taken the week of May 15-20 found Granite Staters evenly split between Biden and Trump at 36 percent, with 14 percent backing independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and another 12 percent choosing none of these.
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Those numbers may explain why Biden is making his second Granite State stop in two months, an unusual travel pattern for a Democratic president in a competitive national election. For Biden, who rarely travels far from D.C. or his Delaware beach house, it’s particularly notable.
Biden is scheduled to appear in Nashua on Tuesday. On Monday, the Biden administration announced more than $3 million in Brownfield Grants “to rehabilitate and revitalize communities in New Hampshire,” including Nashua and Jaffrey.
“This helps to put President Biden’s visit this week into greater context, as that sound you hear is the 2024 battleground map expanding for Donald Trump, seemingly putting New Hampshire in play this fall,” said veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Jim Merrill, who worked on the Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio presidential campaigns.
According to Praecones Analytica’s Dr. Jonathan Klingler, Biden’s struggles come from his loss of support among swing voters.
“While registered voters of both parties are largely united around their nominee, independent/undeclared voters are splitting their support in four statistically indistinguishable ways: between Biden, Trump, Kennedy, and other unnamed candidates,” Klingler said.
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“In comparison to exit polls from the 2020 presidential election, independent/undeclared voters in New Hampshire demonstrate significantly lower support for Biden, as Biden won around 60 percent of these voters in 2020, compared to around a quarter if the election were held today.”
Biden is struggling in the polls in several states Democrats have done well in for years. The latest numbers show Biden and Trump in a close race for Minnesota, which hasn’t backed a GOP presidential candidate since President Richard Nixon’s 1972 49-state landslide.
And in Nevada, which Democrats have carried in six of the past eight elections, Trump has a six-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average, outside the margin of error.
But a Democrat in danger of losing a state in the heart of deep-blue New England would be a bad sign for the incumbent.
Biden also has a Kennedy problem. The new poll shows Kennedy’s support among Democrats is nearly twice as high (11.2 percent) as among Republicans. (6.6 percent).
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RFK, Jr. first suggested a possible presidential run at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics in March, 2023. His progressive message has a large potential audience among Democratic voters who twice picked U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for the party’s presidential nominee.
Some Granite State political pros speculated that Biden’s weakness with swing or undeclared voters may be in part from his decision to dump the First in the Nation primary and his criticism of the Granite State as not diverse enough to be allowed to hold the Democrats’ first primary.
“He spent months insulting New Hampshire, and he wonders why he’s got a problem,” one Granite State Democrat and Biden supporter told NHJournal on background. “Politically active people, our party base, we understand the big picture, but the average voter thinks he was just being a jerk to us.”
CONCORD – While Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said she opposes increasing highway toll rates across the state, the Senate voted Thursday to increase rates for out-of-state license plate holders.
It now goes to the House for consideration.
This would be a $1 increase for those who have out of state plates going through the tolls at Hooksett, Hampton and Bedford for out-of-state plates, a 75 cent hike for those taking Hampton’s Exit 2 and on the Spaulding turnpike at Rochester, and a 50 cent hike for those taking the exit off I-93 to Hooksett.
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An analysis in the bill shows that this would increase toll revenue by $53.3 million in fiscal year 2027 and go up each year to generate $81.4 million a year in 2036.
Senate Bill 627 passed on a voice vote with two Republicans, Senators Regina Birdsell of Hampstead and William Gannon of Sandown opposing.
Senator Mark E. McConkey, R-Freedom, moved to take the bill off the table and offered an amendment. He said the last time there was a systemwide increase to the turnpike toll was 19 years ago.
“I am sure we could all agree the cost of operations…has continued to escalate when revenue is not rising with it,” and he noted that with an enterprise fund, the state can only spend what it takes in.
The state has just completed a 10-year highway plan and there was a $400 million shortfall in projects that could not be paid for under the current income.
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McConkey said the measure would not increase tolls for New Hampshire drivers with a state license plate.
“Why don’t we ask our neighbors,” to pay a toll increase. “We are getting the best of all worlds,” by passing the bill, he said, including “protecting our residents” and having resources for improvements to the turnpike system.
Sen. Gannon, R-Sandown, asked McConkey if there are any studies on impacts near the border on businesses.
If implemented, McConkey said the state will be the 27th lowest in per mile cost still. McConkey said the bill would also increase from seven to 14 days the amount of time for those with NH license plates to pay for a toll adding there are other states that also have different rates for out-of-state users.
The Hampton toll cost would go from $2 to $3, while Hooksett and Bedford would rise from $1 to $2 for out-of-state plates.
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New Hampshire currently has the lowest rate per mile among states with tolls roads. The governor said she does not support a toll increase.
“We are not going to put a burden on drivers for a toll increase,” Ayotte said. “Families are struggling.”
WILTON, N.H. (WHDH) – A woman died in a Wilton, New Hampshire, house fire Wednesday morning, according to the New Hampshire State Fire Marshal’s Office.
At 9:08 a.m., Wilton firefighters responded to Burns Hill Road after a caller said their home was filling up with smoke. When they arrived, a single-family home was on fire and they found out two people were still inside on the second floor.
A man and a woman were both taken out of the house by firefighters and taken to Elliott Hospital. The woman was pronounced dead and the man is in serious condition.
Officials have not released the name of the victim at this time.
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At this time, investigators are looking into the cause of the fire and are trying to determine if a power outage in the area played a factor. The fire is not currently considered suspicious.
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