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SHOCK POLL: Trump Tied With Biden in Blue New Hampshire – NH Journal

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SHOCK POLL: Trump Tied With Biden in Blue New Hampshire – NH Journal


President Joe Biden in Goffstown, N.H. on March 11, 2024.

Democrats have all but owned the Granite State’s four Electoral College votes, winning seven of the past eight presidential contests – including Joe Biden’s eight-point victory over President Donald Trump in 2020.

But the latest NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll finds Biden tied with Trump in New Hampshire, putting him at risk of becoming the first Democrat to lose the state since Al Gore in 2000.

The survey of 862 registered voters taken the week of May 15-20 found Granite Staters evenly split between Biden and Trump at 36 percent, with 14 percent backing independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and another 12 percent choosing none of these.

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Those numbers may explain why Biden is making his second Granite State stop in two months, an unusual travel pattern for a Democratic president in a competitive national election. For Biden, who rarely travels far from D.C. or his Delaware beach house, it’s particularly notable.

Biden is scheduled to appear in Nashua on Tuesday. On Monday, the Biden administration announced more than $3 million in Brownfield Grants “to rehabilitate and revitalize communities in New Hampshire,” including Nashua and Jaffrey.

“This helps to put President Biden’s visit this week into greater context, as that sound you hear is the 2024 battleground map expanding for Donald Trump, seemingly putting New Hampshire in play this fall,” said veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Jim Merrill, who worked on the Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio presidential campaigns.

According to Praecones Analytica’s Dr. Jonathan Klingler, Biden’s struggles come from his loss of support among swing voters.

“While registered voters of both parties are largely united around their nominee, independent/undeclared voters are splitting their support in four statistically indistinguishable ways: between Biden, Trump, Kennedy, and other unnamed candidates,” Klingler said.

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“In comparison to exit polls from the 2020 presidential election, independent/undeclared voters in New Hampshire demonstrate significantly lower support for Biden, as Biden won around 60 percent of these voters in 2020, compared to around a quarter if the election were held today.”

Biden is struggling in the polls in several states Democrats have done well in for years. The latest numbers show Biden and Trump in a close race for Minnesota, which hasn’t backed a GOP presidential candidate since President Richard Nixon’s 1972 49-state landslide.

And in Nevada, which Democrats have carried in six of the past eight elections, Trump has a six-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average, outside the margin of error.

But a Democrat in danger of losing a state in the heart of deep-blue New England would be a bad sign for the incumbent.

Biden also has a Kennedy problem. The new poll shows Kennedy’s support among Democrats is nearly twice as high (11.2 percent) as among Republicans. (6.6 percent).

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RFK, Jr. first suggested a possible presidential run at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics in March, 2023. His progressive message has a large potential audience among Democratic voters who twice picked U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for the party’s presidential nominee.

Some Granite State political pros speculated that Biden’s weakness with swing or undeclared voters may be in part from his decision to dump the First in the Nation primary and his criticism of the Granite State as not diverse enough to be allowed to hold the Democrats’ first primary.

“He spent months insulting New Hampshire, and he wonders why he’s got a problem,” one Granite State Democrat and Biden supporter told NHJournal on background. “Politically active people, our party base, we understand the big picture, but the average voter thinks he was just being a jerk to us.”



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New Hampshire

NH Republicans push to allow guns on college campuses

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NH Republicans push to allow guns on college campuses


CONCORD — The recent fatal shooting at Brown University shows that banning guns on campus makes students more vulnerable to violence, state Rep. Sam Farrington, a University of New Hampshire senior, told reporters Dec. 17 in promoting legislation to end such bans.

Farrington, R-Rochester, and other House Republicans, also said in the Statehouse news conference that the shooting that killed 15 people at a Hanukkah celebration in Sydney, Australia on Sunday, illustrates that Australia’s restrictive gun laws don’t protect the public.

Rep. Joe Sweeney, R-Salem, the deputy House majority leader, said gun control restrictions leave people “unable to defend themselves, their families, their peers.”

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Farrington said violence similar to what occurred at Brown University in Rhode Island, which left two dead and nine injured, could occur in New Hampshire, where universities also prohibit guns on campus.

“UNH, Plymouth State, Keene State, the list goes on, they all have one thing in common — these are public universities that are infringing on the Second Amendment rights of college students right here in New Hampshire,” said Farrington.

“They claim to be gun free zones. Well if we know anything about gun-free zones, looking at Australia and Brown, we know that they are not violence free zones. They are only defenseless zones where victims are left hopeless, without any hope of defending themselves.”

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He is the prime sponsor of House Bill 1793, which the Legislature will consider next year. It would prohibit public colleges and universities from regulating the possession or carrying of firearms and non-lethal weapons on campus.

Under the bill, if a college or university that received federal funds instituted such a ban, they could be sued.

Democrat speaks against legislation

State Rep. Nicholas Germana, D-Keene, a history professor at Keene State College, said Thursday he wouldn’t feel any safer if people coming on campus were packing firearms.

Any police response to an active shooter on a college campus would be fraught if armed bystanders became involved and crossfire broke out, he said.

“All the sudden police come on that campus and it’s a shootout at the OK Corral,” Germana said. “How do police know who the good guy is and who the bad guy is?”

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He said the tragedy in Australia last weekend is an anomaly that doesn’t alter the fact that gun violence rates in that country decreased after strict firearm regulations were passed almost 30 years ago and remain much lower than U.S. rates.

“We can look around the world to see examples of this where the number of guns in the population at large corresponds to gun violence,” Germana said. “It’s clear that when Republicans say in this country that gun control measures do not decrease gun violence, it is demonstrably false.”

The University System of New Hampshire said in the fiscal note of House Bill 1793 that the measure could cost it as much as $500,000 because insurance premiums and liability claims would increase, more security measures would be required, firearm storage systems would be needed, expected lawsuits would create attorney fees and the ability to attract students and faculty would decrease.

These articles are being shared by partners in the Granite State News Collaborative. Don’t just read this. Share it with one person who doesn’t usually follow local news — that’s how we make an impact. For more information, visit collaborativenh.org.



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New Hampshire

NH attorney general clears top Democratic official of ‘electioneering’ charge

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NH attorney general clears top Democratic official of ‘electioneering’ charge


The New Hampshire Attorney General’s office has concluded that Executive Councilor Karen Liot Hill did nothing wrong when she used her government email to assist a law firm that was suing the state over its voter ID law.

Assistant Attorney General Brendan O’Donnell wrote that Liot Hill’s use of her state email to assist a national Democratic law firm find plaintiffs didn’t amount to “electioneering” under state law.

The state Republican party alleged in August that Liot Hill — the only Democrat on the five-member Executive Council — misused her position by involving herself in a lawsuit against the state.

From the start, Liot Hill called that claim baseless, and the Attorney General’s office said Liot Hill’s conduct didn’t warrant sanction.

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“This Office cannot conclude that the e-mails constituted a misuse of position or otherwise violated the executive branch ethics code. This matter is closed,” the office wrote.

In a statement Friday, Liot Hill, from Lebanon, welcomed the conclusion of the case.

“The AG’s findings underscore the partisan nature of the ongoing attacks against me: I am being impeached not for wrong-doing, but for being a Democrat,” she said.

The lawsuit challenging New Hampshire’s voter ID recently failed in state court. But this issue may not yet be over: A top House Republican has filed a bill to explore Liot Hill’s impeachment next year.

As the lone Democrat on the Executive Council, Liot Hill is her party’s ranking member in the State House. That profile has made Liot Hill, who spent two decades in local politics before winning election to the council last year, a regular target for Republicans, who argue that her approach to the job, which she says honors the state’s volunteer spirit, has crossed ethical lines.

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The New Hampshire Republican Party did not immediately respond to a request for comment to the Attorney General report Friday afternoon.





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New Hampshire

Who makes the best Chinese food in New Hampshire?

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Who makes the best Chinese food in New Hampshire?


This week, we’re in the mood for tasty Chinese food. But where can you find the best Chinese food in New Hampshire? Which restaurant is your go-to place when you’ve got a craving? No national chains, please! Click the link to vote — votes in the comments will not be counted.



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