New Hampshire
Latest inflation figures are good news – even if they give a lot of people heartburn • New Hampshire Bulletin
The U.S. economy is slowing, but not crashing. In the dismal science, this is what counts as good news.
That’s the message I took away from the latest inflation data, released May 15, 2024, which showed U.S. consumer prices rising 3.4 percent in the 12 months to April 2024. This is down slightly from the 3.5 percent year-over-year increase reported in March 2024.
In other words, while prices are rising, they’re not going up as sharply as they once were. That’s good news for shoppers; the U.S. economy is far from the 9.1 percent annual inflation seen in June 2022.
While energy and shelter prices increased in April, these gains were relatively modest. Meanwhile, food prices remained steady compared to last year and even declined by 0.2 percent compared to March. What’s more, people in the market for a car were in luck: New and used vehicle prices fell 0.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, in April.
The “core” consumer price index – which doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices and is often considered better at predicting future inflation than so-called “headline” CPI figures – is also down slightly. After posting a year-over-year increase of 3.9 percent in January and 3.8 percent in February and March, it slowed to 3.6 percent in April.
So the overall report is relatively positive: It didn’t show the uptick in inflation that many consumers feared, and reported inflation rates were actually slightly lower than market expectations.
As an economist, I see this data report as yet more evidence that economic growth is slowing – in a good way. The economy grew at a lower-than-expected 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter of 2024, according to the most recent gross domestic product data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The most recent jobs report also showed a slowdown in hiring, and the latest data on job vacancies similarly showed the labor market cooling off.
Why the Fed is paying close attention
The Federal Reserve’s main objective is to strike a balance between two goals: maintaining stable employment and ensuring price stability. It does this by managing and influencing interest rates.
Lowering rates stimulates the economy, which encourages economic growth and job creation – but that can fuel inflation. Raising rates does the opposite: Economic growth slows, which dampens inflation, but also hinders employment.
So, when inflation started increasing dramatically after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve responded with a two-year campaign of rate hikes – they’re currently at a 23-year high. Since this raises the cost of borrowing, investors and potential homebuyers are keen for the Fed to dial back its rates.
After May’s report, I don’t believe the Federal Reserve will be in any rush to cut interest rates from their current elevated level. There’s a slowdown, to be sure, but the slowdown is so steady that it’s not pulling prices down in any rapid fashion.
This is no doubt frustrating for the Fed – which has an inflation target of 2 percent – as well as for potential homebuyers. But it’s evidence that the economy is stable at the moment. Inflation isn’t surging, and consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is still growing. In March, consumer spending increased 5.8 percent year over year, up from February’s 4.9 percent rate.
All eyes on the American shopper
Going forward, hopes for a “soft landing” – economist-speak for when the Fed slows inflation without triggering a recession – will depend in large measure on U.S. shoppers. Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product.
If American shoppers suddenly stop spending, then inflation will slow considerably, job vacancies will evaporate, and gross domestic product could contract. At that point, the Fed will turn attention away from inflation and toward economic stimulus, and rates will fall.
I mention this because a recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showed a troubling uptick in consumer credit card delinquency rates. If much of the recent increase in consumer spending is due to Americans relying more on credit cards, then the economy could be on shakier ground than it appears.
The good news is that delinquency rates are still way below where they were ahead of the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009. So, while this data may be troubling, there’s no need to panic just yet.
In short, while inflation rates still aren’t to the Fed’s liking, the economy – for now – appears to be on a stable path.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The federal government has activated the New Hampshire National Guard’s 157th Air Refueling Wing in connection with the war with Iran.
“I’ve had a briefing myself, a classified briefing, but it’s really important on the messaging on this that we really coordinate with the Pentagon,” Gov. Kelly Ayotte told reporters during a press briefing following Wednesday’s Executive Council meeting.
Ayotte said she was unable to share additional details about the nature of the New Hampshire National Guard’s activity related to the conflict, including how many guard members have been activated or what role they are playing.
“We’re going to respect what messaging comes out of the Pentagon just to make sure that our men and women in uniform are fully protected and that we aren’t providing any information that could be used in a way that would be harmful to them,” Ayotte said.
In a statement Thursday, Ayotte said the unit had been deployed in late February to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in support of the operation.
Earlier this week, Pentagon officials confirmed that members of the Vermont National Guard were involved in attacks against Iran over the weekend, though our news partners at Vermont Public were not able to confirm additional details on the nature of the operation.
During the briefing with local reporters, Ayotte also stressed her support for servicemembers and those close to them.
“I have such respect for our men and women in uniform,” Ayotte said. “As you know, I come from a military family, and they have our full support, and we appreciate them and their families, and obviously anyone who is serving right now, and my thoughts and prayers go out to those who have lost someone that they love.”
By PAULA TRACY, InDepthNH.org
CONCORD – While Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said she opposes increasing highway toll rates across the state, the Senate voted Thursday to increase rates for out-of-state license plate holders.
It now goes to the House for consideration.
This would be a $1 increase for those who have out of state plates going through the tolls at Hooksett, Hampton and Bedford for out-of-state plates, a 75 cent hike for those taking Hampton’s Exit 2 and on the Spaulding turnpike at Rochester, and a 50 cent hike for those taking the exit off I-93 to Hooksett.
An analysis in the bill shows that this would increase toll revenue by $53.3 million in fiscal year 2027 and go up each year to generate $81.4 million a year in 2036.
Senate Bill 627 passed on a voice vote with two Republicans, Senators Regina Birdsell of Hampstead and William Gannon of Sandown opposing.
Senator Mark E. McConkey, R-Freedom, moved to take the bill off the table and offered an amendment.
He said the last time there was a systemwide increase to the turnpike toll was 19 years ago.
“I am sure we could all agree the cost of operations…has continued to escalate when revenue is not rising with it,” and he noted that with an enterprise fund, the state can only spend what it takes in.
The state has just completed a 10-year highway plan and there was a $400 million shortfall in projects that could not be paid for under the current income.
McConkey said the measure would not increase tolls for New Hampshire drivers with a state license plate.
“Why don’t we ask our neighbors,” to pay a toll increase. “We are getting the best of all worlds,” by passing the bill, he said, including “protecting our residents” and having resources for improvements to the turnpike system.
Sen. Gannon, R-Sandown, asked McConkey if there are any studies on impacts near the border on businesses.
If implemented, McConkey said the state will be the 27th lowest in per mile cost still. McConkey said the bill would also increase from seven to 14 days the amount of time for those with NH license plates to pay for a toll adding there are other states that also have different rates for out-of-state users.
The Hampton toll cost would go from $2 to $3, while Hooksett and Bedford would rise from $1 to $2 for out-of-state plates.
New Hampshire currently has the lowest rate per mile among states with tolls roads.
The governor said she does not support a toll increase.
“We are not going to put a burden on drivers for a toll increase,” Ayotte said. “Families are struggling.”
U.S. Postal Service could run out of money within a year
All Aboard the 67, San Francisco’s Most Delayed Bus | KQED
We don’t know why Dallas elected Amber Givens for DA either
Firefight at NW Miami-Dade warehouse enters 2nd day: ‘It burned it all up’
Poor Clares’ monastery a case study in why Boston is short on housing – The Boston Globe
Florida High School Football Rankings: Top 25 teams – Oct. 21
Cleary's 21 help Le Moyne down Central Connecticut State 69-64 in OT
How old is Bo Nix? What to know about Oregon quarterback ahead of 2024 NFL Draft
99th annual Pony Swim held in Virginia
Indiana Members Credit Union announced as new anchor tenant at Bottleworks District
DOJ continues Biden autopen probe despite former president unlikely to face charges
Fact check: Did French border guards mock influencers returning from Dubai amid Iran war?
Iran’s fight for survival / The widening war / Trump’s nebulous goals : Sources & Methods
Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana
Paxton vows he’s ‘staying in this race’ even if Trump backs Cornyn in Texas GOP clash
-
World1 week agoExclusive: DeepSeek withholds latest AI model from US chipmakers including Nvidia, sources say
-
Wisconsin4 days agoSetting sail on iceboats across a frozen lake in Wisconsin
-
Massachusetts1 week agoMother and daughter injured in Taunton house explosion
-
Massachusetts3 days agoMassachusetts man awaits word from family in Iran after attacks
-
Maryland5 days agoAM showers Sunday in Maryland
-
Florida5 days agoFlorida man rescued after being stuck in shoulder-deep mud for days
-
Denver, CO1 week ago10 acres charred, 5 injured in Thornton grass fire, evacuation orders lifted
-
Oregon7 days ago2026 OSAA Oregon Wrestling State Championship Results And Brackets – FloWrestling