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Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in two NH polls: Experts weigh in on what it means

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Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in two NH polls: Experts weigh in on what it means


MANCHESTER — Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, two new polls revealed.

Both polls show Harris leading Trump by six points in the Granite State: 50% to 44% in a poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, and 49% to 43% in a poll conducted by University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Both polls were released Thursday.

It’s a marked shift from a NHIOP poll released a few days after the first presidential debate in June, which saw Trump taking the lead over President Joe Biden, 44% to 42%. It was a telling result in a state that voted for Biden by a large margin in 2020.

But after Biden exited the 2024 presidential race Sunday, Harris is now the expected Democratic nominee.

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Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, said Harris would win New Hampshire’s four electoral votes if the election was held today. 

“She’s done a very good job in the last, let’s say, four days, in unifying the Democratic Party,” Levesque said. “And as a result, what you had were a lot of voters who were not enthusiastic about Biden, and they could be very liberal identified, or they could just be people that just weren’t enthusiastic, they have now turned around and solidified behind Harris.” 

More: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, in NH, touts Kamala Harris and ‘new sense of energy’

In the NHIOP poll, Harris saw more support than Biden among Democratic voters, as well as more liberal voters. Her favorability rating was 49%, much higher than Biden’s 39% from the previous poll. While her favorability rating in the UNH poll was lower at 39%, she had higher ratings than both Biden and Trump.

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Another sign of enthusiasm for Harris, Levesque said, is there were “a lot more people willing to take the poll” than the one from after the debate.

The UNH poll revealed that 47% of New Hampshire residents felt relieved after hearing about Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, and 33% felt hopeful. Among Democrats, 78% prefer Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Support for Trump remained the same from the last NHIOP poll, which was followed by an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican convention, and his vice-presidential running mate choice of Sen. JD Vance.

Flipping the (election) script: Now it’s Trump facing questions about age, mental acuity

“He’s such a known commodity,” Levesque said of Trump. “People either are definitely going to vote for him or they’re definitely not.”

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Republicans may call this polling shift toward Harris a “honeymoon period,” Levesque said. Indeed, in an interview with WMUR the day following Biden’s exit from the race, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said he expected Democrats to get a “four- or five-point bump just because they had the courage to change it out.”

Levesque acknowledged a lot can change in the coming months as the race settles. Harris still needs a vice president and the Democratic National Convention has yet to take place. 

But he said the results are still an important “snapshot” of the race as it stands.

“There’s a lot of other states and a lot of different people, but New Hampshire really is a very good bellwether for knowing the mood of the country,” Levesque said. “And so the fact that she’s bounced, she’s clearly taken the lead here in New Hampshire might be indicative to what happens in some of these other key battleground states.”



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New Hampshire

School health insurance rates are increasing across New Hampshire. There’s more at play than just GLP-1 weight loss drugs

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School health insurance rates are increasing across New Hampshire. There’s more at play than just GLP-1 weight loss drugs


Duane Ford has managed budgets for the Bow and Dunbarton school districts for more than a decade, but nothing quite prepared him for this year’s health insurance bill: a 16% jump in premiums, the steepest increase he’s ever seen. “It’s a part of the budget that we don’t have any control over,” he said. The […]



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NH National Guard activated in connection with Iran war

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NH National Guard activated in connection with Iran war


The federal government has activated the New Hampshire National Guard’s 157th Air Refueling Wing in connection with the war with Iran.

“I’ve had a briefing myself, a classified briefing, but it’s really important on the messaging on this that we really coordinate with the Pentagon,” Gov. Kelly Ayotte told reporters during a press briefing following Wednesday’s Executive Council meeting.

Ayotte said she was unable to share additional details about the nature of the New Hampshire National Guard’s activity related to the conflict, including how many guard members have been activated or what role they are playing.

“We’re going to respect what messaging comes out of the Pentagon just to make sure that our men and women in uniform are fully protected and that we aren’t providing any information that could be used in a way that would be harmful to them,” Ayotte said.

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In a statement Thursday, Ayotte said the unit had been deployed in late February to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in support of the operation.

Pease Air National Guard KC-46 Pegasus air refueling aircraft in June 2023.

Earlier this week, Pentagon officials confirmed that members of the Vermont National Guard were involved in attacks against Iran over the weekend, though our news partners at Vermont Public were not able to confirm additional details on the nature of the operation.

During the briefing with local reporters, Ayotte also stressed her support for servicemembers and those close to them.

“I have such respect for our men and women in uniform,” Ayotte said. “As you know, I come from a military family, and they have our full support, and we appreciate them and their families, and obviously anyone who is serving right now, and my thoughts and prayers go out to those who have lost someone that they love.”

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NH Senate Votes To Hike Turnpike Tolls for Out-of-State Vehicles

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NH Senate Votes To Hike Turnpike Tolls for Out-of-State Vehicles


By PAULA TRACY, InDepthNH.org

CONCORD – While Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said she opposes increasing highway toll rates across the state, the Senate voted Thursday to increase rates for out-of-state license plate holders.

It now goes to the House for consideration.

This would be a $1 increase for those who have out of state plates going through the tolls at Hooksett, Hampton and Bedford for out-of-state plates, a 75 cent hike for those taking Hampton’s Exit 2 and on the Spaulding turnpike at Rochester, and a 50 cent hike for those taking the exit off I-93 to Hooksett.

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An analysis in the bill shows that this would increase toll revenue by $53.3 million in fiscal year 2027 and go up each year to generate $81.4 million a year in 2036.

Senate Bill 627 passed on a voice vote with two Republicans, Senators Regina Birdsell of Hampstead and William Gannon of Sandown opposing.

Senator Mark E. McConkey, R-Freedom, moved to take the bill off the table and offered an amendment.
He said the last time there was a systemwide increase to the turnpike toll was 19 years ago.

“I am sure we could all agree the cost of operations…has continued to escalate when revenue is not rising with it,” and he noted that with an enterprise fund, the state can only spend what it takes in.

The state has just completed a 10-year highway plan and there was a $400 million shortfall in projects that could not be paid for under the current income.

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McConkey said the measure would not increase tolls for New Hampshire drivers with a state license plate.

“Why don’t we ask our neighbors,” to pay a toll increase. “We are getting the best of all worlds,” by passing the bill, he said, including “protecting our residents” and having resources for improvements to the turnpike system.

Sen. Gannon, R-Sandown, asked McConkey if there are any studies on impacts near the border on businesses.

If implemented, McConkey said the state will be the 27th lowest in per mile cost still. McConkey said the bill would also increase from seven to 14 days the amount of time for those with NH license plates to pay for a toll adding there are other states that also have different rates for out-of-state users.

The Hampton toll cost would go from $2 to $3, while Hooksett and Bedford would rise from $1 to $2 for out-of-state plates.

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New Hampshire currently has the lowest rate per mile among states with tolls roads.
The governor said she does not support a toll increase.

“We are not going to put a burden on drivers for a toll increase,” Ayotte said. “Families are struggling.”



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