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Nikki Haley faces an uphill slog in the race for the GOP nomination after a disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses kept Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the race and blunted the former South Carolina governor’s momentum.
Haley and her supporters had hoped a second-place finish, as projected in one promising Iowa poll over the weekend, might have brought a stronger result in Iowa that could have given her a real boost ahead of the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23.
Instead, Haley enters the Granite State seeking to reel in the runaway winner in Iowa, former President Trump, even as she continues to battle with DeSantis.
Finishing in third means “the hill in New Hampshire is steeper,” said Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, who described her caucus results as not “the ride out of Iowa she was hoping for.”
“You don’t get that many opportunities to deliver a clear message to New Hampshire voters, and one of those opportunities is the day after Iowa, if you can credibly say, ‘I have momentum.’ And I think that opportunity was lost,” Scala said.
After the results became clear, Haley insisted she was now in a two-person race and that she had no interest in taking part in debates with anyone other than Trump or President Biden.
“We’ve had five great debates in this campaign,” Haley said in a statement from her campaign. “Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.”
The likelihood of Trump agreeing to a debate with either Haley or DeSantis remains slim, given the political benefits he’s seen from ignoring the scrums.
Trump won the Iowa caucuses with 51 percent of the vote, according to polling data from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, while DeSantis finished with 21.2 percent and Haley earned 19.1 percent.
“I think she would’ve loved to clear the field with a second-place finish in Iowa,” Republican strategist Alex Conant said of Haley. “Instead, the non-Trump vote remains divided going into the critical New Hampshire primary.”
Conant argued that while Iowa didn’t get her a big boost, by finishing close to DeSantis she emerged in a relatively strong position. New Hampshire strategists also suggested voters in the state might not be paying much attention to the Iowa outcome.
Jim Merrill, a GOP strategist based in the Granite State, argued Haley may even have “overperformed” in Iowa, given her lower expectations compared with those of DeSantis, who spent significant time touring the state’s 99 counties and scored the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).
Haley is primed for a strong performance in New Hampshire, where she’s backed by state Gov. Chris Sununu (R).
“She’s the one candidate in these early states that has a chance to break though,” Merrill said. “We’ll see what she does with these seven days, but I don’t think Iowa changes her trajectory here at all.”
An Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire survey released last week found Haley with 28 percent support among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, up from 18 percent in November and well ahead of DeSantis’s 7 percent.
But she’s still 16 points behind Trump, who won 44 percent support in the poll — 5 percentage points less than what he scored in November.
The latest polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ put Trump at around 41 percent support, with Haley at 33 and DeSantis at 6.
Haley may need a victory in New Hampshire to give herself a real chance of winning the GOP nomination.
“I think right now we’re at the beginning. It could very well be the end,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “If Nikki, or Ron for that matter, can make it competitive in New Hampshire, then you have a chance at a race.”
Haley is well behind Trump in polls in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary on Feb. 24.
“It’s a very narrow path for anyone not named Trump,” Bartlett said.
Last week, Haley and DeSantis were the only two candidates to participate in a CNN-hosted debate in Des Moines. ABC and CNN have both announced plans to host GOP presidential debates in New Hampshire, but Haley’s announced intention to skip them unless Trump agrees to participate could leave DeSantis on his own.
“Anything is possible in New Hampshire. But it ain’t easy,” Bartlett said.
“Make no mistake, it’s still a very steep, snowy mountain to climb here in New Hampshire. She’s got some granite heels, but it’s gonna take everything she’s got and then more.”
Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Local News
A New Hampshire woman is accused of violating the state’s Civil Rights Act four times after she allegedly shot at a man because he was Black, prosecutors said.
Diane Durgin, 67, of Weare, N.H. could face up to a $5,000 fine for each violation she is found to have committed, the office of New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella said in a press release Tuesday.
Durgin is also charged with criminal threatening against a person with a deadly weapon and attempted first degree assault with a deadly weapon, Michael Garrity, a media representative for the New Hampshire Attorney General, said in an emailed statement to Boston.com.
Durgin had a final pre-trial conference last week, Garrity said.
In a civil complaint filed Tuesday, Durgin is accused of threatening physical force against the victim, the AG said. Prosecutors asked the court to issue a preliminary injunction barring Durgin from repeating her alleged behavior and from contacting the victim and his family.
During the morning hours of Oct. 20, 2024, the victim claims, he “mistakenly” drove to Durgin’s home after a prearranged purchase of a truck part with a seller online, prosecutors wrote as part of their request for an injunction.
When the man — whom prosecutors identified in court documents as X.G. — arrived, Durgin allegedly stepped out of her home and approached his car with a gun “holstered by her waist,” prosecutors wrote.
Upon noticing that X.G. was Black, Durgin allegedly “removed her gun and pointed it at X.G.,” prosecutors said in the injunction request.
While X.G. explained that he was lost, Durgin called the victim a “Black mother[expletive],” and threatened to “kill him,” prosecutors allege.
As the victim attempted to drive away, Durgin allegedly took her gun and fired two shots at the fleeing man’s car, missing both times, the AG’s office said.
While on the phone with a dispatcher, Durgin allegedly said she shot the man’s car because the victim is Black, the AG said.
“The guy is Black. And he, he…he says he’s meeting someone here and I think he’s coming here to steal,” Durgin allegedly said.
Police located X.G. and brought him to the Weare Police Department, stopping along the way at the correct seller’s home to complete the truck part purchase, prosecutors wrote in court documents.
To prove a violation of the New Hampshire Civil Rights Act, the AG must show that Durgin “interfered or attempted to interfere with the rights of the victim to engage in lawful activities by threatening to engage in or actually engage in physical force or violence, when such actual or threatening conduct was motivated by race, color, religion, national origin, ancestry, sexual orientation, sex, gender identity, or disability,” prosecutors said.
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Streets of Portsmouth after snow storm
The streets of Portsmouth are still in the process of being cleaned up, as seen the afternoon of Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026, following a huge snow storm.
It may be March, but winter in New Hampshire is far from over. Just one week after a blizzard tore through the state with heavy snow and high winds, the state is getting another round of snowfall.
The state will get three to five inches during the evening and night of Tuesday, March 3, says the National Weather Service (NWS) of Gray, Maine. While the accumulation will not be significant, the snowfall may cause dangerous road conditions and a layer of ice on the ground in certain parts of the state.
Here’s what to know before tonight’s snow in New Hampshire, including snow totals and timing.
According to the NWS, it will start snowing in New Hampshire during mid-afternoon or early evening and continue through the night. Specifically, snow will arrive to the southern part of the state around 2-3 p.m., spreading northwards through the rest of New Hampshire by 5 p.m.
Rain or freezing rain will mix in later this evening across southern New Hampshire, creating a wintry mix. All precipitation should move out of the state by midnight.
Due to the timing of today’s snowfall, the Tuesday evening commute will be affected, with the NWS warning to slow down and exercise caution while driving.
New Hampshire will get one to four inches of snow tonight, with one to two inches in northern New Hampshire, two to three inches in southern New Hampshire and three to four inches in the center of the state, with the possibility for five inches in localized areas.
In the Seacoast specifically, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton and York are expected to get between two to three inches of snow, while Dover, Exeter and Rochester may get up to four.
The wintry mix may also cause a light glaze of ice across southern New Hampshire.
The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for the state of New Hampshire, in effect from 1 p.m. on Tuesday, March 3 through 4 a.m. on Wednesday, March 4.
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