Maine
4 things the scant polls of Maine tell us to expect on Election Day
The massive 2020 U.S. Senate race sent pollsters streaming into Maine looking for signals. But this presidential election has been a different story.
Only two independent surveys of Maine have been released since September. That is despite U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District facing state Rep. Austin Theriault in one of the biggest races that will decide narrow control of the House of Representatives. The battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hangs over it.
Polls are fallible. They were infamously off here in 2020, with every one showing U.S. Sen. Susan Collins losing. The Republican won with high swing support, making her the only senator since 2012 to win her state alongside the opposing party’s presidential candidate.
But polls are still the best tools we have to see what’s going on in the electorate. Here are four lessons that we’ve taken away from the scant surveys and what’s going on behind the scenes.
There’s a big reason why Golden and Theriault are segmenting their audiences.
Targeting of political ads to specific constituencies is something that has long happened by mail, but social media has ramped it up and added transparency. Take a quick look through the Facebook ad archives, and you will see how Golden and Theriault are doing it.
Golden is closing his campaign with a soft-focus TV ad featuring his wife and kids. On social media, he has an ad aimed at Democrats featuring voters raising concerns about Theriault’s abortion record. Another ad aimed at conservative voters features him firing a gun and trying to fend off gun-rights concerns about his support for an assault-weapons ban.
Theriault has campaigned much heavier on his right over the last few weeks, aiming one of his last TV ads squarely at Trump supporters. He is reinforcing that on social media with more targeted hits on Golden and another post touting his support for Trump’s agenda.
Both of these candidates have unique problems in locking down voters. This week, the National Republican Campaign Committee publicized a poll showing Theriault slightly ahead of Golden but the Democrat still winning 12 percent of Republicans. If these numbers are true, both sides have improvements to make on their own sides of the electorate.
Despite the latest poll, bet on few undecided voters in the 2nd District.
A poll released this week by the Portland firm Digital Research had a strange result in the Golden-Theriault race, showing them tied at 38 percent with a whopping 21 percent undecided. That was a surprising result so late in the race, although the poll was taken over nearly a month and it stopped surveying voters on Oct. 7, a long time ago politically.
That doesn’t match other public and private surveys showing the candidates in a more conventionally close race in the mid-to-high 40s. The internal Republican poll showed roughly 8 percent of voters still undecided. That should be lower now, just over a week from Election Day.
Trump’s lead in the 2nd District seems healthy.
One of the more surprising findings from a Maine poll this cycle was an August poll from the University of New Hampshire finding Harris up by 5 percentage points in the 2nd District, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to win again.
That looks like a significant outlier now. The two public polls since then from Pan Atlantic Research and Digital Research pegged Trump at 7 points and 9 points up, respectively. One round of polling from House Republicans’ campaign arm had it as close as 2 points.
None of this has really altered what forecasters have seen as a heavy Trump lean in the rural part of Maine. Our national election results partners at Decision Desk HQ have bumped Trump’s chances in the district up slightly to 86 percent over the last three months. That’s pretty healthy.
Voters got more optimistic on a couple of fronts.
Golden is in danger and Trump is looking like a narrow favorite in the national election, making for a nervous election for Democrats here and everywhere else. But Maine Democrats could be heartened by a couple of less-time-sensitive findings in the latest Digital Research poll.
It found that 37 percent of voters thought Maine was headed in the right direction. That’s not an inspiring share without the context that it was the highest level in three years amid the pessimism of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
That economic pessimism seems to be lifting a bit as well. It was at 54 percent in this survey a year ago, but it is now 24 percent, a level not seen since the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term. It might not portend an amazing election for Maine’s majority party, but it could be enough to boost some candidates at the margins.
Maine
Key takeaways from Maine’s new climate action plan
The Maine Climate Council is scheduled to release the state’s new climate action plan on Thursday, delivering an ambitious blueprint for how policymakers can accelerate the state’s transition to a clean energy economy and prepare for the impacts of climate change.
The plan, approved by the council at its October meeting, builds on the state’s original 2020 plan, Maine Won’t Wait. But the updated version focuses more than its predecessor on adaptations to the changing climate, building and industrial energy efficiency, and ensuring that all Mainers benefit from the climate actions outlined in the plan.
The plan doesn’t include many specific cost estimates, but notes that the cost of doing nothing would be much higher. It cites the $90 million in public infrastructure damage caused by last winter’s back-to-back storms, the kind of extreme weather events projected to become more frequent and ferocious due to climate change.
The report identifies potential sources of funding to implement its recommendations, including the state budget, federal grants from the Inflation Reduction Act, private investment in clean energy projects, green bonds to finance climate-related projects and even implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism.
The plan now heads to Gov. Janet Mills, who appointed the first Maine Climate Council and will be on hand Thursday for the report’s release, and the Legislature, which is likely to consider some of these proposals in the upcoming legislative session.
Here are the major takeaways of Maine Won’t Wait 2.0.
• Maine’s ambitious emission reduction goals are reaffirmed.
The updated plan lays out how the state can help prevent the Earth from overheating by sticking to its original greenhouse gas goals: cut carbon emissions by 45% from 1990 levels by 2030 and by 80% by 2050, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
• The plan prioritizes the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydropower, with an aim to reduce the state’s reliance on burning fossil fuels that create heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
It also maintains the state’s previous goal to generate 80% electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Maine is at 55% now.
• Maine will continue to promote the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, including cars, trucks and buses, to reduce transportation-related emissions. But the shift to electrified transportation would occur at a slower pace than laid out in the first climate action plan.
The state’s new goal calls for 150,000 light-duty EVs and 3,000 heavy-duty EVs on the roads by 2030. The 2020 plan called for 219,000 light-duty and 5,000 heavy-duty EVs, but the state has fallen short of those goals. Maine currently has 17,492 electric vehicles.
To reduce “range anxiety” – the concern that there is not enough charging capacity to support longe trips – the plan calls for creating 700 publicly funded fast-charging EV ports by 2028. Maine now has 273.
• The new plan emphasizes efficiency measures in buildings and industries to cut energy consumption. It encourages clean heating and cooling methods, such as a heat pump system, and adoption of new building codes and efficiency standards.
New goals include reducing commercial building energy demand by 10% by 2030, improving industrial process efficiency by 1% a year by 2030 and weatherizing 35,000 homes by 2030. Maine has weatherized 11,472 to date.
• While calling for measures to slow climate change, the plan also emphasizes the need to prepare for the inevitable impacts, including sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and coastal erosion, and the need to protect critical infrastructure, natural resources and communities.
It includes strategies to protect Maine’s coastal communities and the working waterfront from sea-level rise and storm surges, such as elevating infrastructure, restoring coastal ecosystems, the use of incentives and fast-track permits, and new flood control measures.
• The plan promotes carbon sequestration as part of the solution by recognizing the key role of Maine forests, wetlands and eel grass beds in trapping carbon and keeping the greenhouse gas out of the atmosphere. It promotes the purchase, protection and restoration of such carbon sinks.
• Equity and social justice will be factored into the state’s responses to climate change. The plan emphasizes the importance of ensuring that the benefits of climate action are shared across all communities in Maine and addresses the disproportionate impact of climate change on marginalized communities.
The plan includes a number of goals to achieve by 2030, including 40,000 heat pumps installed in low-income households, 10,000 low- to middle-income homes weatherized and the creation of 1,500 energy-efficient affordable housing units. It also calls for EV rebates, rooftop solar installations or community solar projects and resilience grants to be directed to less affluent households and communities.
• The plan identifies opportunities to create green jobs to spark economic growth through investments in clean energy, energy efficiency and climate resilience.
It sets a new goal to create 30,000 clean energy jobs by 2030. Maine has 15,557 now.
• More forests, wetlands and working farms would be protected from development to offset the state’s carbon emissions, provide wildlife habitat and clean water, and help the tourism and natural resource industries. Maine has struggled to fund land acquisition at the rate sought by the council.
The plan maintains the 2020 goal to conserve 30% of Maine lands by 2030. A little more than 22.2% of lands in Maine are protected now. Maine now conserves about 50,000 acres a year, but would need to protect 250,000 more acres a year if it hopes to hit that goal.
Maine
Report says children's mental health, education and labor force growth will impact Maine's economy
In it’s annual report released Wednesday, the Maine Economic Growth Council identified children’s mental health, education and labor force growth as several challenge areas facing Maine’s economy. The council said high housing and energy costs are also concerns.
The annual Measures of Growth report identifies where the Maine economy is improving and where there is still more work to do compared to other states across the country.
Yellow Light Breen, President of the Maine Development Foundation, a public-private organization focused on improving Maine’s economy, said the drop in elementary and middle school students test scores are most concerning to him.
“If we really want to have well educated 20-year-olds, 30-year-olds and 40-year-olds in the Maine of the future, we have to do right by them in preschool and in early elementary,” Breen said.
According to the report, the state is doing well in the areas of internet connectivity, improved roadways and limited increases in greenhouse gas emissions and forestland removal.
Maine
Tom's of Maine toothpaste tainted with bacteria, says U.S. Food and Drug Administration | CBC News
A recent inspection of a Tom’s of Maine facility found that the company’s toothpaste was made using bacteria-tained water, among other serious health violations, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
In a warning letter to CEO Noel Wallace, the FDA said the inspection uncovered disease-causing bacteria in water used to make Tom’s Simply White Clean Mint Paste. The water was sampled between June 2021 to Oct. 2022.
The company uncovered a different bacteria in its Wicked Cool! Anticavity Toothpaste, and justified the bacteria as “sample contamination” without sufficient evidence, the FDA said.
An agency investigator also found a mould-like substance near a water storage tank at the company’s facility in Sanford, Maine, and a powdery residue on a surface near a station where Tom’s Silly Strawberry Anticavity was being made.
The FDA letter said that the facility’s water system is inadequate and that the company needs a better complaints system to address consumer concerns.
“For example, approximately 400 complaints related to [odour], [colour], and taste in your toothpaste products, including those for children, were not investigated,” the letter read.
“These complaints are not investigated because your procedure requires an investigation only if a trend is identified.”
The agency added that the violations outlined in the letter were not intended as an exhaustive list, and that it’s the company’s responsibility to identify the cause of violations and prevent them from recurring.
Tom’s of Maine is a natural personal care brand owned by household products giant Colgate-Palmolive. CBC News reached out to the company for a statement.
“We’re working with the FDA and are remedying the issues raised in their May inspection of the Tom’s toothpaste manufacturing plant in Sanford, Maine,” a spokesperson said.
“We have always tested finished goods before they leave our control, and we remain fully confident in the safety and quality of the toothpaste we make.”
CBC News also reached out to several retailers to ask if they carry any of the products mentioned in the letter.
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