Maine
4 things the scant polls of Maine tell us to expect on Election Day
The massive 2020 U.S. Senate race sent pollsters streaming into Maine looking for signals. But this presidential election has been a different story.
Only two independent surveys of Maine have been released since September. That is despite U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District facing state Rep. Austin Theriault in one of the biggest races that will decide narrow control of the House of Representatives. The battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hangs over it.
Polls are fallible. They were infamously off here in 2020, with every one showing U.S. Sen. Susan Collins losing. The Republican won with high swing support, making her the only senator since 2012 to win her state alongside the opposing party’s presidential candidate.
But polls are still the best tools we have to see what’s going on in the electorate. Here are four lessons that we’ve taken away from the scant surveys and what’s going on behind the scenes.
There’s a big reason why Golden and Theriault are segmenting their audiences.
Targeting of political ads to specific constituencies is something that has long happened by mail, but social media has ramped it up and added transparency. Take a quick look through the Facebook ad archives, and you will see how Golden and Theriault are doing it.
Golden is closing his campaign with a soft-focus TV ad featuring his wife and kids. On social media, he has an ad aimed at Democrats featuring voters raising concerns about Theriault’s abortion record. Another ad aimed at conservative voters features him firing a gun and trying to fend off gun-rights concerns about his support for an assault-weapons ban.
Theriault has campaigned much heavier on his right over the last few weeks, aiming one of his last TV ads squarely at Trump supporters. He is reinforcing that on social media with more targeted hits on Golden and another post touting his support for Trump’s agenda.
Both of these candidates have unique problems in locking down voters. This week, the National Republican Campaign Committee publicized a poll showing Theriault slightly ahead of Golden but the Democrat still winning 12 percent of Republicans. If these numbers are true, both sides have improvements to make on their own sides of the electorate.
Despite the latest poll, bet on few undecided voters in the 2nd District.
A poll released this week by the Portland firm Digital Research had a strange result in the Golden-Theriault race, showing them tied at 38 percent with a whopping 21 percent undecided. That was a surprising result so late in the race, although the poll was taken over nearly a month and it stopped surveying voters on Oct. 7, a long time ago politically.
That doesn’t match other public and private surveys showing the candidates in a more conventionally close race in the mid-to-high 40s. The internal Republican poll showed roughly 8 percent of voters still undecided. That should be lower now, just over a week from Election Day.
Trump’s lead in the 2nd District seems healthy.
One of the more surprising findings from a Maine poll this cycle was an August poll from the University of New Hampshire finding Harris up by 5 percentage points in the 2nd District, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to win again.
That looks like a significant outlier now. The two public polls since then from Pan Atlantic Research and Digital Research pegged Trump at 7 points and 9 points up, respectively. One round of polling from House Republicans’ campaign arm had it as close as 2 points.
None of this has really altered what forecasters have seen as a heavy Trump lean in the rural part of Maine. Our national election results partners at Decision Desk HQ have bumped Trump’s chances in the district up slightly to 86 percent over the last three months. That’s pretty healthy.
Voters got more optimistic on a couple of fronts.
Golden is in danger and Trump is looking like a narrow favorite in the national election, making for a nervous election for Democrats here and everywhere else. But Maine Democrats could be heartened by a couple of less-time-sensitive findings in the latest Digital Research poll.
It found that 37 percent of voters thought Maine was headed in the right direction. That’s not an inspiring share without the context that it was the highest level in three years amid the pessimism of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
That economic pessimism seems to be lifting a bit as well. It was at 54 percent in this survey a year ago, but it is now 24 percent, a level not seen since the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term. It might not portend an amazing election for Maine’s majority party, but it could be enough to boost some candidates at the margins.
Maine
Sen. Mattie Daughtry: A preview for the upcoming legislative session
As a new legislative session begins, Mainers are asking a simple, familiar question: What comes next, and how do we not just get by but actually thrive in such tumultuous times?
After years shaped by COVID, economic whiplash and political chaos, that question feels heavier than it used to. Mainers know what they need to succeed: a safe and stable place to live, health care they can count on, and a fair shot at getting ahead without burning out or falling behind. They want to know that if they work hard and play by the rules, they can build a life that feels secure, dignified and hopeful — the ultimate American dream.
That’s the lens guiding our work this session.
Economists are warning of unprecedented uncertainty ahead. From sweeping federal budget cuts and erratic tariff policies to lingering economic impacts from shutdowns and declining tourism, Maine is already feeling the immense weight. Just like Maine families do every day, the state has to plan responsibly for what we know is affecting us and what we can’t yet predict.
Despite these challenges, Maine remains on solid footing because of choices we have made together in recent years. We have focused on investing in education, workforce development, health care and economic growth — and because of those investments, our labor market remains stable. But inflation is still squeezing household budgets, consumer confidence is low and too many families feel like they are one unexpected expense away from a financial crisis.
At its core, this session is about delivering results that Mainers deserve. That means we must protect the fundamentals they rely on and create the conditions to actually thrive, not just survive.
One of the most important is keeping people housed and healthy, even as federal support grows less reliable. Housing and health care are not luxuries; they are the foundation that allows families to work, care for loved ones and stay rooted in their communities. This session, we will work to protect manufactured housing communities, expand affordable housing options and ensure seniors, veterans and working families can stay in their homes. Last session, we fully funded MaineCare through 2027 and expanded coverage to include doula care and hearing aids. In the year ahead, as Washington pulls back — including the failure to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies — Maine will step up. We will work to strengthen emergency medical services, protect access to reproductive and behavioral health care, expand dental care, and reduce the crushing burden of medical debt. No one should have to sacrifice their home or health because of cost.
It also means being honest about what’s weighing people down right now and lowering everyday costs wherever we can. From grocery bills and utility prices to prescription drugs, too many essentials are eating away at family budgets. We shouldn’t be making life harder for people who are already stretching every dollar. This session, we’re focused on practical relief by targeting energy costs, improving access to affordable medications and easing the pressures that hit working families first.
We will also continue leveling the playing field. Too often, systems are designed to favor large corporations over everyday people. This session, we will strengthen consumer protections, crack down on predatory practices and ensure Mainers aren’t punished for getting sick or trying to stay afloat.
And even in uncertain times, we must keep our eyes on the future. Ensuring a brighter tomorrow means continued investment in child care, education, workforce development and climate resilience — because every generation deserves a fair shot at a better life than the one before it.
When federal decisions create chaos or cut vital supports, Maine will respond with reliability. We will do everything in our power to honor our commitments, protect essential services like schools and health care, and shield Maine people from the worst impacts.
The work ahead will require careful budgeting, bipartisan cooperation and a firm commitment to making progress where we can. But Maine has faced uncertainty before, and each time, we have met it by looking out for one another and doing the hard, disciplined work required.
That’s our North Star this session: protecting the basics people depend on, expanding opportunity where we can and making sure Maine is a place where people don’t just endure uncertain times — they can build something better, no matter what lies ahead.
Mattie Daughtry represents state Senate District 23, Brunswick, Chebeague Island, Freeport, Harpswell, Pownal and part of Yarmouth in the Maine Senate. She also serves as Maine’s Senate president. She can be reached at [email protected] or 207-287-1515.
Maine
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Maine
Elementary-aged student killed in school bus crash in southern Maine
A student was killed in a crash involving a school bus in southern Maine on Tuesday morning, officials say.
The crash occurred around 7:30 a.m. near Edna Libby Elementary School in Standish, authorities said, and MSAD 6 School Superintendent Clay Gleason told News Center Maine it involved a student and a school bus.
Cumberland County Sheriff Kevin Joyce confirmed that an elementary school student was struck by an MSAD 6 school bus and died at the scene. He said Route 35 was shut down between Route 114 and Moody Road for the crash investigation.
MSAD 6 serves the towns of Buxton, Hollis, Limington, Standish, and Frye Island. Standish is a town with about 11,000 residents about 15 miles west of Portland.
The child who died was a student at Edna Libby Elementary School, the school district said. Joyce said only one student was on the bus at the time of the crash — the half-brother of the student who was killed.
“The Cumberland County Sheriff’s Office, along with other law enforcement agencies, will be reconstructing the accident, providing more information as we get it,” Joyce said. “What we do know now is we have a child that’s deceased. It’s tough anytime of the year, but not a good time of the year for a lot of families.”
Gleason said Edna Libby Elementary School planned to dismiss students at 11:30 a.m. to allow parents or caregivers to be with their children and for staff to receive support. All after school activities in the district were canceled, though the school day went on as scheduled in all other district schools.
“I have been in communication with the Cumberland County Sheriff’s Office and a full investigation will be forthcoming to determine how this tragic accident took place,” Gleason said in a message to the school community. “In this difficult time please keep those directly impacted in your thoughts – first and foremost the family of the student, as well as the students and staff of Edna Libby. Speculation or blame on social media is not productive or helpful and is disrespectful to the memory of the student and their family.”
Support services are being provided for the bus driver and the family, Joyce said.
No additional information has been released, but officials said they expect to have more to say later in the day.
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