Maine
4 things the scant polls of Maine tell us to expect on Election Day
The massive 2020 U.S. Senate race sent pollsters streaming into Maine looking for signals. But this presidential election has been a different story.
Only two independent surveys of Maine have been released since September. That is despite U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District facing state Rep. Austin Theriault in one of the biggest races that will decide narrow control of the House of Representatives. The battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hangs over it.
Polls are fallible. They were infamously off here in 2020, with every one showing U.S. Sen. Susan Collins losing. The Republican won with high swing support, making her the only senator since 2012 to win her state alongside the opposing party’s presidential candidate.
But polls are still the best tools we have to see what’s going on in the electorate. Here are four lessons that we’ve taken away from the scant surveys and what’s going on behind the scenes.
There’s a big reason why Golden and Theriault are segmenting their audiences.
Targeting of political ads to specific constituencies is something that has long happened by mail, but social media has ramped it up and added transparency. Take a quick look through the Facebook ad archives, and you will see how Golden and Theriault are doing it.
Golden is closing his campaign with a soft-focus TV ad featuring his wife and kids. On social media, he has an ad aimed at Democrats featuring voters raising concerns about Theriault’s abortion record. Another ad aimed at conservative voters features him firing a gun and trying to fend off gun-rights concerns about his support for an assault-weapons ban.
Theriault has campaigned much heavier on his right over the last few weeks, aiming one of his last TV ads squarely at Trump supporters. He is reinforcing that on social media with more targeted hits on Golden and another post touting his support for Trump’s agenda.
Both of these candidates have unique problems in locking down voters. This week, the National Republican Campaign Committee publicized a poll showing Theriault slightly ahead of Golden but the Democrat still winning 12 percent of Republicans. If these numbers are true, both sides have improvements to make on their own sides of the electorate.
Despite the latest poll, bet on few undecided voters in the 2nd District.
A poll released this week by the Portland firm Digital Research had a strange result in the Golden-Theriault race, showing them tied at 38 percent with a whopping 21 percent undecided. That was a surprising result so late in the race, although the poll was taken over nearly a month and it stopped surveying voters on Oct. 7, a long time ago politically.
That doesn’t match other public and private surveys showing the candidates in a more conventionally close race in the mid-to-high 40s. The internal Republican poll showed roughly 8 percent of voters still undecided. That should be lower now, just over a week from Election Day.
Trump’s lead in the 2nd District seems healthy.
One of the more surprising findings from a Maine poll this cycle was an August poll from the University of New Hampshire finding Harris up by 5 percentage points in the 2nd District, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to win again.
That looks like a significant outlier now. The two public polls since then from Pan Atlantic Research and Digital Research pegged Trump at 7 points and 9 points up, respectively. One round of polling from House Republicans’ campaign arm had it as close as 2 points.
None of this has really altered what forecasters have seen as a heavy Trump lean in the rural part of Maine. Our national election results partners at Decision Desk HQ have bumped Trump’s chances in the district up slightly to 86 percent over the last three months. That’s pretty healthy.
Voters got more optimistic on a couple of fronts.
Golden is in danger and Trump is looking like a narrow favorite in the national election, making for a nervous election for Democrats here and everywhere else. But Maine Democrats could be heartened by a couple of less-time-sensitive findings in the latest Digital Research poll.
It found that 37 percent of voters thought Maine was headed in the right direction. That’s not an inspiring share without the context that it was the highest level in three years amid the pessimism of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
That economic pessimism seems to be lifting a bit as well. It was at 54 percent in this survey a year ago, but it is now 24 percent, a level not seen since the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term. It might not portend an amazing election for Maine’s majority party, but it could be enough to boost some candidates at the margins.
Maine
You drew a Maine moose permit. Here’s what to do right now.
For many hunters, drawing a Maine moose permit is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. After years — and sometimes decades — of applying, the excitement of seeing your name among the winners quickly turns into a new challenge: planning for the hunt.
Whether you’re going on your first moose hunt or preparing for another trip into the Maine woods, there are several important steps permit winners should take as soon as possible.
Hire a registered Maine guide
Many permit winners hire a registered Maine guide to help locate a moose, scout hunting areas and navigate unfamiliar country. You’re paying for their knowledge, experience and time spent scouting before the season ends. Even if you’re a Maine resident, hiring a guide should be a consideration. Most hunters don’t have the time to make multiple scouting trips, and trail cameras aren’t always an option because cell service is limited or nonexistent in many hunting areas.
If you’re considering hiring a guide, don’t wait too long. Available openings often fill up the night of the lottery.
Book lodging for your moose hunt
Sporting camps, cabins, campgrounds and hotels near popular moose hunting areas will also fill up quickly. If your hunt will take place hours from home, securing lodging should definitely be one of your first priorities. Waiting until summer will leave you with fewer options and a longer commute to your hunting area.
Find a meat processor
The state maintains an official list of moose meat processors. The last thing you want to be doing is calling around on a warm September day trying to find a butcher willing to take your moose. Processors can only handle so many animals each season, and much like guides and lodging, many fill their schedules quickly. Calling ahead and having a plan in place can save a lot of stress after a successful hunt.
Line up your hunting partners and helpers
If you’re not hunting with a guide, it’s helpful to know who will be accompanying you. Aside from sharing the experience, friends and family can help scout, call, spot animals, film the hunt and retrieve a harvested moose.
How will you retrieve the moose?
Depending on where the animal is harvested, you may need an ATV, side-by-side, trailer, winch, ropes or other equipment to retrieve it. Keep in mind that ATVs and side-by-sides are prohibited in the North Maine Woods, so you may need to quarter and pack the moose out instead. In that case, game bags, packs, knives and saws will be essential, while items such as a jet sled or game cart may help make the job easier.
Gather your moose hunting gear
In addition to your weapon, consider what you’ll need for the hunt itself. Tarps, coolers, headlamps, GPS units, an inReach, radios, rain gear and extra fuel can all make a hunt more comfortable and efficient.
If you’re planning on getting away from the roads, you may need or want a wall tent. You’ll also need cots or other sleeping gear, a heating source, water, cooking gear and emergency supplies. A spare tire, jumper cables, chainsaw and basic tools can also be invaluable when traveling remote logging roads.
Prepare for meat care and transportation
Make plans to have coolers, ice, transportation and storage well before opening day.
Sight in your rifle or practice with your bow
Don’t be the hunter who misses because their scope was 8 inches off, got bumped during travel or hasn’t been checked since last season. Confirm your rifle is properly sighted in before the hunt, and shoot again after arriving in camp. Stock up on ammo and spend time practicing from realistic field positions.
Don’t overlook shooting sticks, either. Many hunters regret leaving them behind. Shot opportunities are often farther than expected, and a stable rest can make all the difference when anticipation and excitement start to take over.
The same applies if you choose to bring a bow. Reps, shooting from different positions and accurately judging distance can all improve your chance of success.
Scout your zone
If you don’t hire a guide, make sure you’re familiar with your hunting area. Not only will you likely run into other hunters during the week, you may arrive at your preferred spot only to find another truck already parked there. Having backup options is key.
Conditions also vary dramatically from year to year, so what worked for hunters last season may not work this fall.
Depending on the weather, moose may be farther away from roads, requiring hunters to do more walking. Last September’s hunt saw lower success rates in every wildlife management district compared to 2024.
Moose biologist Lee Kantar noted that drought conditions and slightly earlier September dates can lead to changes in moose behavior. Drought and warm weather likely affect moose movement, feeding patterns and activity levels, resulting in moose staying closer to areas with moisture and green vegetation.
“If bulls are not widely searching for cows, if bulls and cows are bedding or ruminating more in dark growth during the day, and if hunters do not adjust and ‘go in after them’, then success will drop,” Kantar said
The same challenges can affect October hunts.
Study maps, use onX, review aerial imagery and learn access roads before the season begins. Many logging roads shown on maps are no longer passable or have been blocked off.
Prepare physically for the hunt
Even hunters who plan to hunt from roads may end up walking several miles in a day.
Just getting into a producing moose area can require long walks down logging roads, skid trails or old cuts. Moose hunting can be physically demanding, with long days outdoors, rough terrain, bugs and heavy lifting. Spending a few months improving your fitness can make the experience more enjoyable.
Create a checklist
Make a list of everything you’ll need including licenses, permits, firearms, ammo, retrieval equipment, coolers, camping gear, food, water and emergency supplies. The more organized you are, the smoother the hunt is likely to be.
Maine
Two charged with assault after boater dies overboard in Hurricane Sound
VINALHAVEN, Maine (WGME) — Two boaters are charged and a third is dead after he went overboard in Downeast Maine.
Just before 5 Thursday, Maine Marine Patrol says a boater fell overboard in “Hurricane Sound” near Vinalhaven.
He’s identified as 57-year-old Marshal Ames.
Marine Patrol says before they arrived, a good Samaritan from Hurricane Island was able to reach Ames and began CPR, but he was pronounced dead by first responders.
Officers say when the other crewmembers arrived on shore, they got into a fight with them.
The crew members, 39-year-old Geoffrey Barrett and 27-year-old Theodore Lane, are facing charges including assault.
The Maine State Police major crimes unit is now part of the investigation.
Maine
Local control is holding education back in Maine | Opinion
Scott A. Harrison, Ed.D., M.B.A., is a senior advisor at The Harrison Group, a consultancy based in Yarmouth.
Maine has long valued local control in education. That tradition reflects an important belief that communities should have a strong voice in shaping their schools. But local control should not prevent us from asking a harder question: Are there core functions that could be delivered more effectively through a single statewide framework?
One of the most important is educator evaluation and professional growth. Maine law already recognizes the importance of this work. Under Title 20-A, Chapter 508 (Educator Effectiveness), districts must implement performance evaluation and professional
growth systems that evaluate educators, assign effectiveness ratings and support
professional growth.
The law further requires superintendents to use those ratings to inform key human capital decisions, including recruitment, hiring, induction, mentoring, professional development, compensation, assignment and dismissal. In short, educator evaluation is not intended to be a compliance exercise. It is intended to be a primary lever for the continual improvement of teaching and learning.
In 2012, LD 1858 sought to advance that vision by giving districts broad flexibility to design their own systems. Districts could choose instructional frameworks, establish measures of effectiveness and determine how evaluators would be trained and calibrated. The goal was to balance local autonomy with professional accountability.
More than a decade later, however, the evidence suggests that flexibility alone has not produced consistent results.
My research involving 130 educators across four Maine school districts found only modest perceptions of performance evaluation and professional growth systems’ effectiveness.
On a four-point scale, average ratings ranged from 2.48 to 2.99. While educators generally agreed that districts provide individualized growth plans and can differentiate levels of instructional effectiveness, they rated several critical implementation areas notably lower, including instructional coaching, evaluator training, feedback quality, evaluator calibration and the use of evaluation data to inform professional learning and personnel decisions.
Although the sample was relatively small, the findings closely mirror what I have observed while working with predominantly rural Maine districts over the past decade.
The qualitative findings were equally revealing. Teachers and administrators described systems that are often cumbersome, inconsistently implemented and difficult to sustain. Educators reported spending significant time developing goals and documenting evidence, while administrators acknowledged that competing priorities frequently reduce evaluation to a compliance exercise rather than a meaningful opportunity for growth.
Participants cited insufficient training, inconsistent expectations, limited coaching support and weak connections between evaluation results and professional learning. Perhaps most significant, though not surprising given the realities of today’s schools, the primary obstacle appears to be not commitment, but capacity — the time, expertise and tools required to implement these complex systems with fidelity.
Designing and sustaining high-quality evaluation systems requires expertise in instructional leadership, observation and feedback, adult learning, professional development, data use and evaluator calibration. While some districts have built this capacity, many — particularly smaller and rural systems — have not. Even where expertise exists, time remains a major barrier.
Effective evaluation depends on regular observation, coaching, feedback and calibration. Yet for principals balancing instructional leadership with the daily demands of running a school, carrying out these responsibilities consistently can be extraordinarily difficult.
As a result, Maine has effectively asked more than 250 districts to independently build and maintain highly complex educator effectiveness systems. The outcome is predictable: uneven quality and implementation, and variable impact on teaching and learning.
This raises an important policy question: Should every district continue to design, train, calibrate and maintain its own evaluation system, or would educators and students be better served by a common statewide framework supported by regional and state expertise?
A statewide approach would not eliminate local control. Districts would continue to make decisions about hiring, staffing, curriculum, budgeting and school improvement priorities. Instead, the state would provide shared infrastructure: a common instructional and evaluation framework, validated tools, evaluator training, calibration supports, professional learning resources and implementation assistance.
The benefits extend beyond evaluation. A common framework would create stronger alignment across Maine’s educator pipeline. Colleges and universities could align coursework, clinical experiences and assessments to the exact same standards used in schools while sharing responsibility for educator success beyond initial placement.
Preparation programs, districts and the state would become partners in a continuous system of educator development, creating mutual accountability for results and a stronger return on Maine’s investment in teacher preparation.
Such alignment matters. As systems thinker Peter Senge observed, people working within the same system tend to produce similar results. If we want more consistent outcomes for students, we must pay closer attention to the systems shaping educator practice.
A statewide approach would not eliminate local control. Districts would continue to make decisions about hiring, staffing, curriculum, budgeting and school improvement priorities.
A common framework would establish a shared language and clearer expectations throughout the career continuum. It would also make continuous improvement easier. Rather than asking hundreds of districts to independently revise complex systems, the state could evaluate implementation, refine practices, share lessons learned and respond to emerging research. Educators have experienced too many short-lived initiatives that consume considerable time and effort before fading away.
A coherent statewide system would provide greater stability and more meaningful long-term improvement. The question is not whether local control matters. It does. The question is whether every district should be expected to independently build and sustain complex systems that require specialized expertise, significant resources and ongoing refinement.
If Maine is serious about improving outcomes for students, it should rethink which functions are best managed locally and which are better supported through statewide infrastructure. Educator effectiveness is one example. There are likely others.
In a previous op-ed here, I argued that Maine should reconsider whether teacher compensation is best negotiated district by district. The same question applies here. When critical human capital systems are essential to student success, a coherent statewide framework may be better positioned to advance equity, efficiency and effectiveness while preserving local decision-making where it matters most.
The goal is not less local control, but a smarter balance between local autonomy and statewide support — one that strengthens schools and improves outcomes for every student, regardless of geography.
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