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4 things the scant polls of Maine tell us to expect on Election Day

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4 things the scant polls of Maine tell us to expect on Election Day


The massive 2020 U.S. Senate race sent pollsters streaming into Maine looking for signals. But this presidential election has been a different story.

Only two independent surveys of Maine have been released since September. That is despite U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District facing state Rep. Austin Theriault in one of the biggest races that will decide narrow control of the House of Representatives. The battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hangs over it.

Polls are fallible. They were infamously off here in 2020, with every one showing U.S. Sen. Susan Collins losing. The Republican won with high swing support, making her the only senator since 2012 to win her state alongside the opposing party’s presidential candidate.

But polls are still the best tools we have to see what’s going on in the electorate. Here are four lessons that we’ve taken away from the scant surveys and what’s going on behind the scenes.

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There’s a big reason why Golden and Theriault are segmenting their audiences.

Targeting of political ads to specific constituencies is something that has long happened by mail, but social media has ramped it up and added transparency. Take a quick look through the Facebook ad archives, and you will see how Golden and Theriault are doing it.

Golden is closing his campaign with a soft-focus TV ad featuring his wife and kids. On social media, he has an ad aimed at Democrats featuring voters raising concerns about Theriault’s abortion record. Another ad aimed at conservative voters features him firing a gun and trying to fend off gun-rights concerns about his support for an assault-weapons ban.

Theriault has campaigned much heavier on his right over the last few weeks, aiming one of his last TV ads squarely at Trump supporters. He is reinforcing that on social media with more targeted hits on Golden and another post touting his support for Trump’s agenda.

Both of these candidates have unique problems in locking down voters. This week, the National Republican Campaign Committee publicized a poll showing Theriault slightly ahead of Golden but the Democrat still winning 12 percent of Republicans. If these numbers are true, both sides have improvements to make on their own sides of the electorate.

Despite the latest poll, bet on few undecided voters in the 2nd District.

A poll released this week by the Portland firm Digital Research had a strange result in the Golden-Theriault race, showing them tied at 38 percent with a whopping 21 percent undecided. That was a surprising result so late in the race, although the poll was taken over nearly a month and it stopped surveying voters on Oct. 7, a long time ago politically.

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That doesn’t match other public and private surveys showing the candidates in a more conventionally close race in the mid-to-high 40s. The internal Republican poll showed roughly 8 percent of voters still undecided. That should be lower now, just over a week from Election Day.

Trump’s lead in the 2nd District seems healthy.

One of the more surprising findings from a Maine poll this cycle was an August poll from the University of New Hampshire finding Harris up by 5 percentage points in the 2nd District, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to win again.

That looks like a significant outlier now. The two public polls since then from Pan Atlantic Research and Digital Research pegged Trump at 7 points and 9 points up, respectively. One round of polling from House Republicans’ campaign arm had it as close as 2 points.

None of this has really altered what forecasters have seen as a heavy Trump lean in the rural part of Maine. Our national election results partners at Decision Desk HQ have bumped Trump’s chances in the district up slightly to 86 percent over the last three months. That’s pretty healthy.

Voters got more optimistic on a couple of fronts.

Golden is in danger and Trump is looking like a narrow favorite in the national election, making for a nervous election for Democrats here and everywhere else. But Maine Democrats could be heartened by a couple of less-time-sensitive findings in the latest Digital Research poll.

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It found that 37 percent of voters thought Maine was headed in the right direction. That’s not an inspiring share without the context that it was the highest level in three years amid the pessimism of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

That economic pessimism seems to be lifting a bit as well. It was at 54 percent in this survey a year ago, but it is now 24 percent, a level not seen since the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term. It might not portend an amazing election for Maine’s majority party, but it could be enough to boost some candidates at the margins.



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Maine Resiliency Center launches survey to gauge Lewiston shooting’s impact

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Maine Resiliency Center launches survey to gauge Lewiston shooting’s impact


LEWISTON (WGME) Nearly three years after the Lewiston mass shooting, the Maine Resiliency Center is asking the public to share how the tragedy has affected them and the community.

The nonprofit has launched a survey to better understand the impacts of the mass shooting in October 2023 and to help guide future support efforts.

The director of the Maine Resiliency Center said the ripple effects have spread widely and the organization wants to hear from anyone who has been affected.

“You could have been a service provider who is providing therapy or counseling for people; you could have been a funeral home director or city employee; you could be someone who lives in this community and knows somebody who is directly impacted or you could be directly impacted yourself. All of those opinions and information are really valuable to us as we look to support the broader community moving forward,” the director said.

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To take part in the survey, go to maineresiliencycenter.org.



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Maine’s high court keeps transgender athlete referendum off 2026 ballot

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Maine’s high court keeps transgender athlete referendum off 2026 ballot


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Our political journalists are based in the Maine State House and have deep source networks across the partisan spectrum in communities all over the state. Their coverage aims to cut through major debates and probe how officials make decisions. Read more Politics coverage here.

AUGUSTA, Maine — The Maine Supreme Judicial Court on Friday upheld Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’ decision to keep a referendum banning transgender girls from female school sports off the November ballot.

The high court ruled Bellows was “not only authorized but was constitutionally bound” when she moved in May to throw out more than 1,500 signatures gathered by out-of-state circulators who never agreed to submit to Maine’s jurisdiction.

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The unanimous ruling from the six-justice panel closes out a monthslong legal fight that began when Bellows’ office invalidated more than 12,000 signatures submitted by Protect Girls’ Sports in Maine, leaving the petition 532 signatures short of the 67,682 needed to qualify.

The group, backed heavily by Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein, had argued Bellows overstepped her authority by enforcing a settlement that ended a 2023 First Amendment lawsuit over Maine’s ban on out-of-state circulators, rather than letting Maine voters decide whether to loosen the state’s residency rules for petition circulators.

The court rejected that argument, finding Bellows was bound by the Maine Constitution’s residency requirement for circulators except where a federal injunction narrowly excused her from enforcing it, and that four nonresident circulators who never checked a box consenting to Maine jurisdiction fell outside that carveout.

Justices also rejected the campaign’s fallback argument that one circulator’s belated affidavit, filed months after the Feb. 2 filing deadline, should have salvaged her roughly 61 signatures, citing a state law requiring circulator affidavits to be filed when the petition is.

The decision effectively ends the campaign’s bid for the 2026 ballot, though the court noted proponents could still gather the roughly 500 additional signatures needed to try again for the 2027 ballot.

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Meet 16 obscure Maine Democrats shaping Graham Platner’s replacement

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Meet 16 obscure Maine Democrats shaping Graham Platner’s replacement


A handful of mostly unknown Democrats, including a retired art teacher, a candidate’s husband and a finance executive, will soon have unprecedented influence over the U.S. Senate race.

Maine Democrats are slated to host a 600-member convention this month, with roughly 500 of those members selected by the party’s 16 county apparatuses. Being a county chair is usually a low-key position. After Graham Platner’s Wednesday announcement that he will leave the race following sexual assault allegations, they are suddenly in a position of power.

Here are the 16 people tasked with creating a delegation to pick who will face off against Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

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Joseph Zamboni: Cumberland County

As Maine’s most populous county, Cumberland will have the largest delegation at the coming convention. Its party chair is health policy and law professor and pro-vaccine advocate. He currently serves as the chair of Portland’s zoning board and previously worked for the state and the federal Department of Health and Human Services.

Kathie Purdy: York County

York, the southernmost county, is the state’s second most populous. Its delegation will be led by Kathie Purdy, a former candidate for the state Legislature. She is a business owner in Saco and a bar manager in Ogunquit, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Harry Sanborn: Penobscot County

Alton resident Harry Sanborn is involved in local government, serving as a member of both the planning board and budget panel. He also serves as the town’s sexton. His wife, Laura, a former lawmaker and county commissioner, is a school board member for Regional School Unit 34.

Joanne Mason: Kennebec County

Kennebec’s Democratic Party chair is Joanne Mason, a nonprofit leader and the wife of Sheriff Ken Mason. According to her LinkedIn, she is president of the Family Violence Project, an Augusta-based nonprofit.

Carl Wilcox: Androscoggin County

From his social media history, Wilcox appears to be on the left of the party. In response to a white nationalist rally in DC last week, he posted that “billionaires control the media and the government sets the rules to funnel ever greater sums to the billionaire class,” echoing Platner’s anti-billionaire language. He hiked the entire Appalachian Trail in 2016.

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Alison Willette: Aroostook County

Willette has relatively little online presence, but the Aroostook County Democrats downplayed the chair’s role in a Thursday Facebook post, writing, “the process is still being hashed out, but I assure you all counties have representation involved and it is NOT a ‘cherry picked by the chair’ process!”

Aroostook’s delegation, likely to be the seventh-largest, could be a source of support for former Senate President Troy Jackson, an Allagash native who is running to replace Platner in his populist mold.

Bruce Bryant: Oxford County 

Oxford is one of the only counties with a chair that served in the state Legislature. Bruce Bryant was a Senator between 2002 and 2010. In 2024 he ran for state senate again, but lost to Republican Joseph Martin. On social media he voiced support for Troy Jackson when he was running for Governor.

Marcia Myers: Hancock County

Myers is a former news editor who now lives in Deer Isle. Her social media history shows posts invoking independent socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and attending “No Kings” protests. She told MS NOW in June that Democrats in Hancock were “laser-focused on issues like healthcare and cost of living.”

Lise Ragan: Somerset County

Ragan is an Anson resident and former teacher who describes herself on Facebook as a “patriotic, very concerned American.” She told the Bangor Daily News she is “confident” the party can move forward with a new candidate for U.S. Senate.

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Greg Marley: Knox County

Rockland resident Greg Marley is married to the city’s former mayor and current state Rep. Valli Geiger, a Platner ally running to replace him. In response to a post by The Midcoast Villager about Valli’s interest, Marley posted that he “stand[s] beside this extraordinary woman every step of the way.” Geiger had been a close ally of Platner, who she says encouraged her to run.

Marley is a clinical director of suicide prevention at Maine’s chapter of the nonprofit National Alliance on Mental Illness.

Stanley Paige Zeigler: Waldo County

Zeigler is a former merchant mariner and state representative. He represented part of Waldo County between 2016 and 2024. He has been involved with environmental organizations like the Sierra Club and the Maine Bike Coalition.

Keith Mestrich: Lincoln County

Lincoln County’s chair is set for one of the smallest delegations, but he may have something that other party leaders lack and that many party voters have shunned over the course of Platner’s campaign — money and connections.

Keith Mestrich got his start in labor organizing and eventually became CEO of Amalgamated Bank, a union-owned financial institution. He is now a founding partner of Percapita, a financial tech firm providing an employee benefit platform for low-income workers. He also serves as the chair of the National Trust for Local News, whose Maine arm owns The Portland Press Herald and sister papers.

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Lisa Marin: Washington County

Washington County Democrats are led by a retired art teacher who worked at the Moosabec Community School District in Jonesport. The Downeast resident’s Facebook history shows that she has attended “No Kings” protests. She recently wrote a Press Herald op-ed condemning Republican gubernatorial nominee Bobby Charles.

Wayne Kinney: Franklin County

Kinney represents Farmington on the RSU 9 school board. His online presence is limited.

Deb Dagnan: Piscataquis County

Dagnan will lead the smallest county delegation. She had expressed skepticism about Platner after The New York Times published a story in June detailing claims of abuse by his ex-girlfriends. She told PBS ahead of the primary election that people were “waiting for the other shoe to drop after he gets the nomination.”

“Then what do we do?” she asked.

Daniel O’Connor is a Report for America corps member who covers rural government as part of the partnership between The Maine Monitor and the Bangor Daily News, with additional support from BDN and Monitor readers.

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