Connecticut
Warm winters are changing Connecticut –– and how scientists think about winter
Ellie Park, Multimedia Managing Editor
In October, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, released winter weather predictions, forecasting a 23 percent chance of above-normal temperatures in New Haven.
The News spoke to NOAA’s Matthew Rosencrans, lead meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center, to explain what this number means for Connecticut.
“In Southern New England, nine of the last 10 years have been above the average temperature, and five of the last 10 have been in the ‘above normal’ category,” Rosencrans said.
The upper third of recorded winter averages are considered above normal. According to Rosencrans, winter 2025 will continue this decade-long trend of warm winters.
To make his prediction, Rosencrans examined precipitation patterns, which will be below normal in 2025. And what precipitation does occur will fall as rain, not snow.
“That’ll just wet things up, but it won’t create a snow cover, which typically creates a feedback with cold temperatures.”
Warm temperatures will cause less snow. Less snow will trigger warmer temperatures. The combination sets up a feedback loop.
Yet a predicted high average temperature does not mean New Haven will be warm all winter. Averages conceal some variation.
“The average temperature for Southern New England will be 30.0 to 30.07 degrees Fahrenheit, but that’s when you average daily highs and nightly lows for all 92 days of winter,” Rosencrans said. “There will be periods of cold. There will be periods that will be very warm. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to be all one way.”
Rosencrans’ forecast is only about a degree above normal –– but for heating systems, energy companies and organisms alike, this variation has consequences, he said.
Like humans, animals and plants slow down in winter. David Vasseur, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, explained that organisms typically have slower metabolism during these months to conserve limited resources. Short, warm winters send mixed cues.
“Individuals burn through their energy reserves more rapidly,” Vasseur said, which can decrease the organisms’ chance of survival.
And, more critically, different species that rely on each other may not respond to these unnatural cues in the same way.
“The timing of species emergence, dormancy, migration or reproduction are no longer well matched to the availability of food,” Vassuer said.
This misalignment is called phenological mismatch.
Take birds and caterpillars: emergence from cocoons used to occur during bird hatching season, when parents needed large amounts of food. Today, caterpillars emerge much earlier. Birds lack food when they most need it, and plants have to cope with overwhelming herbivory from hungry, un-hunted caterpillars.
It’s as though species are experiencing seasonal jet lag, adjusting to new time zones with earlier waking cues –– cues that their food source may or not respond to.
Phenological mismatch is a major challenge for Connecticut’s ecosystems, David Post, professor of aquatic ecology at Yale, told the News.
“That’s always been one of the big concerns about climate change –– not so much the mean temperature changing, but the variance, and how the variance and the timing of events would change,” Post said.
Scientists have known since the 1980s that winters were getting shorter and warmer, Post said. Some effects are obvious: fish spawn earlier, insects emerge earlier and lakes that were once used for ice fishing no longer freeze at all.
Post’s research, too, is impacted by these changes.
“We rarely can sample those lakes in winter anymore. They just don’t freeze,” Post said.
To begin with, winter is an understudied season.
In the midst of increasing temperatures, it’s become both more difficult and more necessary to study.
“It was thought that it was a period when the ecology of, say, a lake, was reset for the next summer,” Post said. “What that misses is that what happens in the winter influences the growing season in very profound ways.”
Post studies the ecology of frozen lakes, and explained that research on winter ecology has only emerged in the last 10 to 20 years.
Ecologists are now studying forests and lakes during winter, chronicling the impact of snow cover on factors like tree growth and plankton abundance.
“It is just not a time of year that ecologists have studied very much. And so there will be surprises. We don’t really know the long-term impacts on a lot of ecosystems.”
For example, Vasseur wonders if longer summers and growing seasons can compensate for organisms’ increased use of energy during warm winters.
Connecticut’s winters are changing. Temperatures this season will be above normal, falling in line with the decade-long trend of warm winters.
Rosencrans still encourages residents to prepare for snow storms and power outages this winter by refreshing storm kits with three days worth of water and packaged food, as well as rechargeable batteries and a NOAA weather radio.
“That’s what we want: people to stay safe no matter what the forecast is.”
Rosencrans’ national winter weather predictions can be viewed here.
Connecticut
Road closures, crashes & flooding reported across Connecticut
CONNECTICUT (WTNH) — As Friday’s stormy weather brings strong rains and damaging winds, the Connecticut Department of Transportation and local agencies are reporting the following alerts.
Stormy Friday Weather
RELATED
Note: Not every alert can be attributed to weather.
Current Traffic Alerts:
- NEW HAVEN – Two-vehicle crash on Route 15 southbound between Exits 46 and 42B. The right lane is closed. Reported at 3:28 p.m.
- OLD SAYBROOK – Route 154 (Main Street) closed in both directions between Willard Ave Ext. and Cromwell Ave because of tree down with wires. Reported Friday, December 19 at 2:20 pm.
- PLAINFIELD – Route 12 closed # 105 Norwich Road and Kinney Hill Road for tree in wires. Reported at 12:31 p.m.
- PLAINFIELD – Route 12 closed in both directions at Arbor Lane due to a pole down in wires. Reported at 12:25 p.m.
- N. STONINGTON – Route 184 (Providence New London Turnpike) closed in both directions at Rt 49 (Pendelton Hill Road) because of tree down. Reported at 12:11 p.m.
- COLCHESTER – Colchester Route 85 New London Road closed between Lake Hayward Road and West Road because of Wires Down. Reported at 12:04 p.m.
- UNION – Route 171 closed at Route 197 and Rindge Road for a tree down in wires. Reported at 12:02 p.m.
- DEEP RIVER – Route 80 (Winthrop Road) closed in both directions between Cedar Swamp Road and Bahr Road because of a tree down. Reported at 11:58 a.m.
- OXFORD – Route 67 is closed at Route 42 for wires and a transformer down. Reported at 11:49 a.m.
- LEBANON – Lebanon RT-207 Exeter Road is closed at Clubhouse Road because of a tree down with wires involved. Reported at 11:46 a.m.
- NORTH BRANFORD – Route 17 northbound and southbound at the intersection of Rt 22 is closed. Utility work in area. Reported at 11:47 a.m.
- BRANFORD – Localized flooding is currently occurring in multiple areas of town.
- SEYMOUR – Fire officials are asking people to avoid Highland Avenue and Gilyard Street because a large tree has snapped a telephone pole. Please use alternate routes.
- MIDDLETOWN – Multiple businesses without power.
- EAST LYME – Route 161 (Flanders Road) closed in both directions at Society Road because of pole down with wires. Reported at 11:50 a.m.
- EAST LYME – Tree down on powerlines on West Main Street, Niantic (Rte. 156) in the area of #278. Roadway is currently closed at Douglas Avenue and Four Mile intersection. Eversource has been notified. Reported at 10:45 a.m.
- MANSFIELD – Route 195 is closed at Ledgewood Drive for a tree down across the road. Reported at 10:45 a.m.
- GUILFORD – Route 146 Leetes Island Road closed in both directions between Wingate Road and Moose Hill Road because of a tree down with wires. Reported at 11:44 a.m.
- THOMPSON – Thompson Route 193/Thompson Road is closed between Route 12/Riverside Drive and Robbins Road because of a Tree Down. Reported Friday, December 19 at 11:36 am.
- COLCHESTER – Colchester Route16/Middletown Road is closed between Bigelow Road and Victoria Drive because of a tree down with wires involved. Reported at 10:45 a.m.
- HARWINTON – Harwinton Route 4/Burlington Road closed between Harmony Hill Road and Route 72 Terryville Road because of a tree down with wires on the road. A fire was also reported. Reported at 9:14 a.m.
Connecticut
Connecticut doctor warns about ‘super flu’ as holiday gatherings approach
CONNECTICUT (WTNH) — Doctors are voicing concerns on the rising number of flu cases, including a new strain some are referring to as the “super flu,” as many are gathering indoors with loved ones for the holiday season.
With Christmas just a week away, Dr. Ulysses Wu, the chief epidemiologist at Hartford HealthCare, said there are growing concerns over the new H3N2 flu strain.
“We had a very late flu season this year, but we’re making up for it like gang busters,” Dr. Wu said. “What’s happening with this one is, this has changed a bit, making it a little bit more infectious. It invades our immune system a little bit more, and that’s why we’re seeing a rise in cases.”
The most notable jump in the U.S. has been happening in New York City, with 14,000 cases reported in the first week of December. That is a 460% jump from the same time last year, according to the state flu tracker.
Dr. Wu warned that, because of its location, Connecticut is at risk to see a jump in flu cases.
“Remember, we’re sandwiched between New York and Boston, and we do have our share of travelers and commuters as well,” Dr. Wu said. “Our rates have certainly increased and that’s to be expected.”
Dr. Wu recommended that it is best to listen to medical professionals when it comes to the flu vaccine and the new H3N2 strain.
“So people are saying, ‘Oh well it’s changed, the vaccine isn’t going to work.’ It is still going to work,” Dr. Wu explained. “The whole point is to modulate the course of the disease so it’s not as severe.
Dr. Wu said that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases are also up among children and older adults in Connecticut. When it comes to holiday celebrations, Dr. Wu recommends using common sense — wash your hands, stay home if you are sick and get vaccinated if you haven’t been already.
Connecticut
Lamont Seeks $168M From Emergency Reserve To Offset Federal Cuts To Health, Housing And Food Aid
CONNECTICUT — Gov. Ned Lamont has submitted a plan to Connecticut legislative leaders to withdraw nearly $168 million from a newly created Emergency State Response Reserve to offset recent federal funding delays and reductions affecting health and human services programs.
The proposal, totaling $167.9 million, marks the first time Lamont has sought to access the reserve, which was established in November under Special Act 25-1. The fund contains $500 million in state surplus dollars and was created in anticipation of potential federal funding reductions.
According to the administration, the proposed expenditures would help reduce health insurance costs for more than 150,000 residents, provide food assistance to more than 35,000 people and help keep approximately 3,500 individuals housed.
The plan includes funding to bolster food banks and pantries affected by changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, replace expiring enhanced health insurance subsidies linked to the Affordable Care Act, and provide interim support for homelessness prevention programs facing federal grant delays. It also would cover lost federal reimbursements for services provided by Planned Parenthood of Southern New England and expand capacity at the state’s 2-1-1 information and referral system.
“We should be supporting programs that increase access to food, healthcare, and homelessness prevention and response,” Lamont said in a statement. “Here in Connecticut we will stand behind them and do what we can to ensure that this most basic assistance remains available.”
Office of Policy and Management Interim Secretary Joshua Wojcik said the funding would help close gaps created by federal actions while supporting vulnerable residents.
“This is a responsible use of taxpayer resources to support our most vulnerable residents,” Wojcik said, adding that the administration continues to assess additional needs.
Under the proposal, $24.6 million would go to community food banks and pantries through June 2027, while $64.1 million would replace expiring enhanced premium tax credits for residents enrolled in Covered Connecticut. Another $50.8 million would address the loss of enhanced federal health insurance subsidies for certain income groups.
Additional allocations include $6.9 million for expiring homelessness grants and supportive housing vouchers, $10.4 million to replace lost federal funding for Planned Parenthood services and Title X programs, $4.7 million to expand 2-1-1 call center capacity and community outreach, and $1.5 million for administrative costs at the Department of Social Services.
As required by law, bipartisan legislative leaders have 24 hours after receiving the plan to review it and, if they choose, disapprove the proposed expenditures before funds are transferred.
If approved, $332 million would remain in the Emergency State Response Reserve. The governor is authorized to make withdrawals from the fund through Feb. 4, 2026, the opening day of the next regular legislative session.
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