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2024 NBA Finals Gambling Primer: Dallas Mavericks Vs. Boston Celtics

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2024 NBA Finals Gambling Primer: Dallas Mavericks Vs. Boston Celtics


Reluctantly, I’m here to discuss the 2024 NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. I say “reluctantly” because I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in this season betting on the NBA. After going on a 15-game winning streak during the NBA Play-In Tournament and the first round of the playoffs, I’ve cooled off significantly. 

My disgruntlement aside, it also feels like this Mavericks-Celtics is lacking juice. I mean, the biggest NBA story on the morning of Game 1 is the Los Angeles Lakers possibly giving Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley a blank check to be their next head coach. This is just another example of ESPN butchering its NBA coverage. 

But, that’s neither here nor there. As a hoops betting junkie, I’ll be boozing and ordering Uber Eats for every 2024 NBA Finals game. Plus, I am interested in whether this is the beginning of a Boston dynasty or the Luka Dončić era. The Celtics have their dynamic duo, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, not even in their primes with the best supporting cast in the NBA. Luka will be the favorite to win the NBA MVP next season and, his co-pilot, Kyrie Irving, finally seems normal again. 

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics NBA Finals 2024 

The odds are as of 1:30 p.m. ET Thursday, June 6th. 

Series Odds (DraftKings) 

  • Boston (-210)
  • Dallas (+175)

Series Spread (DraftKings) 

  • Celtics -1.5 (+100)
  • Mavericks +2.5 (-120)

Money is pouring in on the Mavs to win the 2024 NBA Finals and it feels like “sucker money”. I get Dallas just beat three straight lower seeds in the Western Conference Playoffs and Boston has struggled to cover in its wins this postseason. However, the Celtics have been the favorite to win the title since trading for PG Jrue Holiday this offseason. They won 64 regular-season games and have lost two games in the playoffs. 

With this in mind, I’ll invoke the handicapping angle of “Public ‘dogs get slaughtered”. Usually, when the public backs an underdog, it loses. Since the public loves betting favorites, it’s rare for sportsbooks to root for the better team on paper. Yet, that’s what we have in the 2024 NBA Finals. We witnessed Luka and Kyrie torch the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals and Boston “play with its food” in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

The Celtics beat the Mavs in both regular-season meetings by an average score of 128.5-110.0. One win was pre-trade deadline, the other was afterward, and Dončić and Irving played in both. I mention the trade deadline because Dallas added two starting bigs to their team, C Daniel Gafford and PF P.J. Washington, Feb. 9th. 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast’s 2024 NBA Finals Preview, Celtics-Mavericks Ft. David Troy

Nonetheless, following the trade deadline, Boston led the NBA in non-garbage time net rating (+14.8) and spread differential (+5.4), according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Whereas the Mavericks had a +15.8 adjusted net rating and a +2.0 spread differential. 

Also, in their first meeting this season, Boston was on the second of a back-to-back and Dallas had four days’ rest. Regardless, the Celtics went on the road and beat the Mavs by nine. Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown crushed the Mavericks. Tatum averaged 35.5 points on 52.5% shooting and Brown put up 29.5 PPG on 57.1% shooting. 

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The biggest factor in my pro-Celtics handicap is the gap from Luka and Kyrie to Tatum and Brown is big enough to make up the edge Boston’s supporting cast has over Dallas’s. Let’s agree both tandems average 60+ PPG. Holiday and Boston SG Derrick White will outplay Washington, Gafford, and Mavericks SF Derrick Jones Jr. That’s not even factoring in the return of Celtics big Kristaps Porziņģis

Finally, both teams chuck threes but the Celtics are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. This postseason, Boston is +3.0% in 3-point shooting and Dallas is +1.6%. Between their starting 5 and backup big Al Horford, the Celtics have six good 3-point shooters. While any Dallas possession that ends with a Washington, Gafford, or Jones contested shot is a good one for Boston’s defense. 

Best Bet: Boston Celtics -1.5 NBA Finals spread (+100) 

_____________________________

2024 NBA Finals MVP Odds (FanDuel) 

  • Jayson Tatum (-125)
  • Luka Dončić (+215)
  • Jaylen Brown (+700) 
  • Kyrie Irving (+1800)
  • Kristaps Porziņģis (+3300)
  • Derrick White (+3500)
  • Jrue Holiday (+10000)
  • Al Horford (+37000)
  • Derrick Jones Jr. (+50000)
  • P.J. Washington (+50000)
  • Daniel Gafford (+50000)
  • Mavericks C Dereck Lively (+50000)

This is essentially a “value bet”. Considering Tatum is -125 to win the 2024 NBA Finals MVP, Brown’s +700 odds are disrespectful. Tatum isn’t that much better than Brown. He is only averaging one more PPG in these playoffs and Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Since the Mavs don’t have two guys to guard Tatum and Brown, Dallas will have to pick its poison, so to speak. 

Furthermore, Brown is shooting 54.1% from the field this postseason and Tatum is shooting just 44.2%. Brown’s ability to bully defenders gets him good looks inside the paint, and he is shooting 61.5% on twos. Lastly, Tatum is settling for too many threes and 29.0% from behind the arc in the playoffs. Brown will win the Bill Russell Award (NBA Finals MVP) if these shooting splits continue. 

Bet: Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown (+700) 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season. 





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Monster effort from Neemias Queta helps pave the way for Celtics in win over 76ers – The Boston Globe

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Monster effort from Neemias Queta helps pave the way for Celtics in win over 76ers – The Boston Globe


Queta has been a revelation for the Celtics this season and helped them improbably surge into second place in the Eastern Conference. But it is unlikely he or his team envisioned nights like Sunday, when he crafted the best game of his career to propel Boston to a 114-98 win over the 76ers at TD Garden, its 11th in 13 games.

The 26-year-old center finished with 27 points and 17 rebounds and received ‘MVP’ chants several times in the fourth quarter.

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“I thought he’s had great ownership and responsibility to what it calls for to be a starting center for the Celtics, and he’s got to continue to get better,” Mazzulla said. “He works at it. He cares. So, it’s a credit to him.”

The Celtics, who entered the night averaging 17.1 second-chance points per game, poured in 30 Sunday, with Queta leading the charge. With 76ers center Andre Drummond often playing up and trying to congest the lanes for Boston’s talented ballhandlers, Queta forcefully and quickly found space around the rim.

“We just gave him the ball and trusted him to make the right decision every time, and he was able to get it going,” forward Jaylen Brown said. “He had some nice up-and-unders in the seam and stuff like that that helped propel us to a win.”

Brown added 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists for Boston.

Tyrese Maxey had 33 points to lead the 76ers, but they did not come easily. The All-Star guard played 43 minutes and made just 12 of 34 shots. Philadelphia was without star center Joel Embiid (oblique).

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“He didn’t have a ton of layups, didn’t have a ton of free throws,” Mazzulla said of Maxey. “I thought he obviously missed some good shots, but when you have the ball as much as he did, I thought we did a really good job just being disciplined, defending without fouling, keeping him out of transition.”

The Celtics improved to 40-20, with just 22 games remaining in the regular season. After the game, there was a visible reminder of what could be on the way.

Star forward Jayson Tatum, who could be nearing a return from last May’s Achilles injury, sat at his locker and laughed and joked with team staffers. He also posted the latest clip from the NBC docuseries about his comeback on his social media accounts.

Jayson Tatum, who has yet to play this season, liked what he saw from the Celtics bench.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

For now, of course, the Celtics continue to plow forward without him. On Sunday, Boston quickly wiped away an early 10-point deficit behind Queta. He registered five offensive rebounds in the opening period, and flashed an unusual amount of offensive creativity during his dominant second quarter.

During one stretch, he danced through the lane for a basket, converted a putback, then dazzled the crowd by trailing a fast break, taking a pass from Brown, and converting an acrobatic scoop shot that gave Boston a 40-35 lead.

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“We don’t want him to get too carried away with some of those,” Brown said, smiling. “But he was converting them tonight and it looked good.”

Queta reminded everyone that much of his value comes from his defensive work when he swatted a Kelly Oubre Jr. shot out of bounds, and he received a rare standing ovation when he checked out moments later.

Neemias Queta’s performance put a smile on Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

Finally, after a well-executed two-for-one opportunity, Brown found Baylor Scheierman, who played with a splint on his broken left thumb, in the right corner; he hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer that gave Boston a 62-50 lead at the break. Scheierman gave a high thumbs-up with his bandaged digit.

The Celtics led by 16 early in the third quarter, but the 76ers continued to push back. Three-pointers in the final minute by Quentin Grimes and Maxey made it 89-83 at the start of the fourth.

The 76ers trailed by 6 with four minutes left in the fourth quarter but missed their next five shots, any one of which could have put real pressure on Boston.

With 2:56 left, Queta converted a layup as he was fouled, stretching the lead back to 105-97. He received ‘MVP’ chants for the second time in the quarter when he went to the foul line. Then, with 1:56 left, he put an exclamation point on his memorable night by grabbing yet another offensive rebound and throwing down a two-handed dunk that made it 109-98.

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“I thought Neemi matched and exceeded the [76ers] physicality,” Mazzulla said.

Jaylen Brown has become the leader of the Celtics while Tatum has been away. Will Tatum returning cause locker-room drama?

Adam Himmelsbach can be reached at adam.himmelsbach@globe.com. Follow him @adamhimmelsbach.





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Bruins Believe They ‘Didn’t Do Enough’ In Loss To Flyers | NESN

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Bruins Believe They ‘Didn’t Do Enough’ In Loss To Flyers | NESN


The Boston Bruins suffered a 3-1 road loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.

Boston entered the game in points in eight-straight games, as the Bruins are competing for a playoff spot. However, Boston’s offense struggled on Saturday, as the Bruins scored just once on Dan Vladar, and head coach Marco Sturm felt like the team didn’t do enough to create more scoring chances.

“(Vladar) played really good, he kind of made those saves he needed to,” Sturm said as seen on NESN’s postgame coverage on Saturday. “We just didn’t do enough of a good job being around him or being front of him.”

Although Sturm didn’t like Boston’s play, Vladar still made some key stops when the game was close. 

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Bruins forward Morgan Geekie had multiple chances and was frustrated that he couldn’t score on any of them.

“Just one of those nights,” Geekie said. “Their goalie played well. Couldn’t quite put it in the spot I wanted to a couple times and Dan made a couple great plays.”

Boston’s lone goal came from Charlie McAvoy, while Jeremy Swayman made 14 saves on 16 shots, as Philadelphia added an empty-netter to secure the win.

With the loss, the Bruins fell to 33-21-5 and are holding onto the final Wild Card spot. Boston will return to the ice at home on Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

More NHL: Charlie McAvoy’s Mother Reveals His Immediate Reaction To Team USA’s Gold Medal Win

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MLB notes: New Red Sox pitching directors looking to keep pipeline flowing

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MLB notes: New Red Sox pitching directors looking to keep pipeline flowing


FORT MYERS, Fla. — Over the past few years the Red Sox pitching program has been completely transformed.

Since Craig Breslow took over as chief baseball officer, the Red Sox have gone from one of the worst organizations at developing young pitchers to one of the best, and now the club is overflowing with talented arms who are already making their mark in the majors.

That hasn’t gone unnoticed, and this past offseason one of the people most responsible for executing the club’s turnaround — former director of pitching Justin Willard — was hired away by the New York Mets to be their new major league pitching coach.



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