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What the Data Shows About Trump's Immigration Policies and Deportations So Far
President Trump’s drastic reshaping of immigration enforcement toward a goal of deporting millions has led to nearly 23,000 arrests and 18,000 deportations in the past month, federal data shows.
Arrests inside the country are up sharply relative to the Biden administration, but they are below the levels seen when immigration agents made a show of force at the start of Mr. Trump’s term.
Deportations have continued to lag. As a result, 4,000 more people are sitting in detention facilities than when Mr. Trump first took office. An additional 3,000 people who were detained have been released back into the country.
Daily average of new detentions in which ICE was the arresting authority
Note: Figures are for book-ins to ICE detention in which ICE was the arresting agency. Some arrests do not lead to detention as the person may be released or immediately deported.
Source: Immigration and Customs Enforcement
ICE is arresting and detaining more people
The administration began its increased enforcement operations shortly after Mr. Trump was inaugurated, and ICE was quick to publicize the number of immigrants caught in its operations each day. People booked into detention by ICE — a rough measure of arrests — peaked at 872 people per day in late January before falling to just under 600 people per day in the first three weeks of February, data shows.
This is a significant escalation from the Biden administration: ICE arrested and detained about 255 people each day last year. It also reveals the extent of a shift in immigration priorities under Mr. Trump to increase enforcement in the interior of the country.
Deportations have not kept pace with arrests. ICE deported an average of 600 people a day in mid-February, the latest data available, compared with more than 750 people a day in the 12 months through November.
ICE is deporting fewer people than last year
The drop in deportations is due in part to a simultaneous change in border policy. During the Biden administration, a majority of people detained and deported were arrested crossing the southwestern border. But the Trump administration moved to quickly close the border, ending the asylum process and other Biden-era programs that offered migrants humanitarian relief.
Now, border agents are arresting far fewer people than last year and sending fewer migrants to ICE for detention and eventual deportation. (It is not clear how many people are being removed directly from the border, since that data has not been published since Mr. Trump took office.)
Total detained population by arresting authority
More people are being held in ICE detention
Even though arrests at the border are down, the aggressive push to detain immigrants elsewhere in the country has filled detention facilities above the capacity Congress set for funding. The total number of people in ICE detention has grown by more than 4,000 in the last month, to nearly 44,000.
At the same time, far fewer immigrants are being paroled or released than in the first few weeks of the Trump administration and during the Biden administration.
Note: Figures are for book-outs from ICE detention in which the detainee was granted bond and released, either by ICE or an immigration judge, or released after making a promise to meet certain conditions.
Source: Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Releases from ICE detention have dropped in recent weeks
Under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., many people who were not considered a threat to the community or a flight risk were allowed to leave detention under certain conditions, but this practice has nearly ended. ICE stopped granting parole to detainees almost entirely in late February. A small number are still being released from detention after paying a bond or promising to meet certain conditions.
A growing share of people detained by ICE have no criminal record
The administration has said its strategy is focused on detaining and deporting criminals, and a majority of those in detention have been convicted of a crime. But data shows the share of people detained with no criminal charges has grown to 16 percent from 6 percent in mid-January.
Some members of the administration, including Tom Homan, the ICE director, have expressed frustration that the enforcement numbers are not higher as they seek to deliver on one of Mr. Trump’s signature promises.
At the current pace, the administration does not appear on track to detain and deport millions of people this year, but the numbers could still rise quickly. Republicans in Congress have proposed billions in new funding for ICE and other agencies, and Mr. Trump has moved to expand the military’s role in immigration enforcement.
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Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle
Is there such a thing as an “off year” for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year’s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year’s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections and two highly anticipated governor’s races.
Many of the elections were seen as early tests of how lasting President Trump’s 2024 gains might be and as a preview of what might happen in 2026.
Here are five takeaways from the 2025 election cycle.
In Elections Seen as Referendums on Trump, Democrats Won Big
Democrats did well in nearly all of this year’s elections, continuing a pattern that has played out across off-year elections for the last two decades: The party that wins the White House routinely loses ground in the next round of elections.
The change in the final margin from the presidential election to the next election for governor
Virginia and New Jersey have historically swung away from the president’s party in governor’s races
Elections in these years are often viewed as referendums on the president’s performance. And Mr. Trump’s approval ratings, after months of holding steady, took a dip in November.
A notable shift came in New Jersey, where the majority-Hispanic townships that swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2025 governor’s race. That contributed significantly to the victory of Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, over Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican.
New Jersey’s majority-Hispanic towns snapped back left in 2025
Each line is a township whose width is sized to the number of votes cast in 2025
The leftward swing was viewed by many political commentators as a reaction to Mr. Trump. If that is the case, it remains to be seen how much of it will carry over into 2026.
Progressive and Moderate Democrats Are Both Claiming Victories
Democratic strategists continue to debate whether the party should embrace progressive candidates or more moderate ones. And in 2025, the election results had both sides feeling emboldened.
In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who struggled to garner support from the Democratic Party, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points. A similar story played out in Jersey City, where James Solomon, a progressive, crushed former Gov. James McGreevey of New Jersey in a mayoral runoff. Progressives also prevailed in cities like Detroit and Seattle.
Centrist Democrats, meanwhile, came away with arguably the two biggest wins of the year against Trump-endorsed Republicans. Abigail Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, both Democrats, outperformed their polling estimates and decisively won the high-profile governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.
The debate will continue among Democrats as several 2026 primaries have prominent progressive and moderate candidates going head to head.
In Texas, Representative Jasmine Crockett, a progressive, entered the primary race for a U.S. Senate seat against the more moderate James Talarico. A similar situation has developed in Maine, where Graham Platner has pitched himself as a more progressive alternative to Janet Mills in the party’s attempt to unseat Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. Other progressives, like Julie Gonzales in Colorado and Brad Lander in New York, are challenging incumbent Democrats in primary races.
A Record 14 Women Will Serve as Governors in 2026
Virginians elected Ms. Spanberger as their first female governor. In New Jersey, Ms. Sherrill became the second woman to secure the position. Both women significantly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins from the 2024 presidential race, improving on her results by almost 10 points.
Female candidates also did well down the ballot. Eileen Higgins will be the first female mayor in Miami after defeating Emilio González, who had the support of Mr. Trump. And, in Seattle, Katie Wilson defeated the incumbent mayor, Bruce Harrell.
States that will have female governors in 2026
Come 2026, a record 14 women — 10 Democrats and four Republicans — will serve as governors, with six of them expected to run for re-election next year. (More than a dozen states have yet to elect a female governor.)
In New York, it is likely that both candidates will be women: Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, began a campaign last month against the incumbent, Kathy Hochul.
Special Elections Are Still Very Special (for Democrats)
Despite not flipping any House seats, Democrats outperformed Ms. Harris’s 2024 results in every House special election this cycle. Their wins, however, offer limited insight into what might happen in 2026.
Special elections, which happen outside of regular election cycles to fill vacated seats, draw fewer voters than those in midterm or presidential years. Special election voters tend to be older and highly engaged politically, and they are more likely to be college educated. That has given Democrats a distinct advantage in recent years, and 2025 was no exception.
Democratic candidates in this year’s special congressional elections outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins.
Democrats did well in the 2025 special elections
Democratic strength in special elections extended to lower-profile races held this year. In Virginia, Democrats secured 64 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In Georgia, Democrats won two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, the first time the party won a non-federal statewide office since 2006. Pennsylvania Democrats swept the major Bucks County contests, electing a Democratic district attorney for the first time. And, in Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the State Senate.
Odd-Numbered Years Are Still Very Odd (for Election Polls)
Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it’s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.
Each dot is a poll from the relevant governor’s election, positioned according to its polling error in the election.
Polls missed in opposite directions in 2021 and 2025
Polling misses don’t necessarily carry over from cycle to cycle: Despite the leftward bias of the polls in 2021, they performed very well in 2022. After each election, pollsters look at the result and evaluate their performance, and then note where they went wrong. Analysis from groups like the American Association for Public Opinion Research frequently indicates that errors come from an incorrect sense of who shows up to vote. Pollsters then try to adjust for this error in the next election cycle.
The errors of 2025 may prove largely irrelevant, however, as the midterm elections will feature a larger, very different pool of voters with a new set of races, and a new host of lessons for pollsters to learn.
Off years are weird, and the polling errors they produce often are as well.
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Putin tells news conference that Kremlin’s military goals will be achieved in Ukraine
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow’s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, voicing confidence that the Kremlin’s military goals would be achieved.
Speaking at his highly orchestrated year-end news conference, Putin declared that Russian forces have “fully seized strategic initiative” and would make more gains by the year’s end.
Russia’s larger, better-equipped army has made slow but steady progress in Ukraine in recent months.
The annual live news conference is combined with a nationwide call-in show that offers Russians across the country the opportunity to ask questions of Putin, who has led the country for 25 years. Putin has used it to cement his power and air his views on domestic and global affairs.
This year, observers are watching for Putin’s remarks on Ukraine and the U.S.-backed peace plan there.
U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed an extensive diplomatic push to end nearly four years of fighting after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, but Washington’s efforts have run into sharply conflicting demands by Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin reaffirmed that Moscow was ready for a peaceful settlement that would address the “root causes” of the conflict, a reference to the Kremlin’s tough conditions for a deal.
Earlier this week, Putin warned this week that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin’s demands.
The Russian leader wants all the areas in four key regions captured by his forces, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014, to be recognized as Russian territory. He also has insisted that Ukraine withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine that Moscow’s forces haven’t captured yet — demands Kyiv has rejected.
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Video: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’
new video loaded: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’
By Chris Cameron and Jackeline Luna
December 18, 2025
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