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US to grow at double the rate of G7 peers this year, says IMF

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US to grow at double the rate of G7 peers this year, says IMF

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The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks global markets.

Strong household spending and investment will help propel US growth to 2.7 per cent this year according to the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook.

The figure is higher than the 2.5 per cent estimated for 2023 and represents a 0.6 percentage point upgrade on the previous forecast.

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The projections highlight the US economy’s role as the driver of global growth, as investors across the world scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The IMF said the next best performer in the G7 this year would be Canada, with growth of 1.2 per cent.

It added that Germany’s expansion would be the weakest among the G7 at 0.2 per cent. Japan is forecast to experience growth of 0.9 per cent, while the UK is set to expand by just 0.5 per cent after flatlining in 2023.

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Global stock markets sank and Asian currencies were hit by a rising dollar on Tuesday, following a Wall Street sell-off prompted by strong US retail sales figures suggesting the Fed may cut rates this year by less than previously thought.

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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, told the Financial Times that, while the “baseline” was still three quarter-point cuts this year, the Fed could be thrown off course by the surging US economy.

“If the inflation pressures persist beyond what we have right now, in the US in particular, then we would expect that they would have later cuts and maybe fewer cuts,” he said.

Gourinchas added that Fed rate cuts could be delayed from this summer to the fourth quarter — potentially after November’s presidential election — if inflation overshot IMF expectations.

At present, investors expect the Fed to cut rates by September and possibly more than once by the end of the year.

The recent bumper US growth has helped the global economy avoid a long-feared hard landing following interest rate rises.

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But strong demand has also pushed up price pressures, in contrast with the UK and eurozone.

The IMF said US inflation would continue to recede but lifted its forecast for this year to 2.9 per cent, above the 2.4 per cent predicted for the eurozone and 2.5 per cent in the UK.

Gourinchas said the European Central Bank and the Bank of England could cut rates sooner because they did not face such a “strong demand-driven component of inflation”. 

Laying out its projections as central bank governors and finance ministers attend joint IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the fund found that global economic activity had proven “surprisingly resilient” even after central banks boosted rates to bear down on inflation.

But it also warned of risks to the global recovery, notably the possibility of fresh increases in commodity prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. 

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The broader picture is still one of tepid expansion by historical standards, with world growth projected to remain at 3.2 per cent this year and next, in line with 2023’s estimate. 

The IMF said the long-term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, weak productivity growth and increasing “geoeconomic fragmentation” were hampering expansion.  

The cause of disinflation in advanced economies was being aided by a stronger than forecast rise in employment, in part because of inflows of migrants, the IMF said. There had been faster growth in foreign-born rather than domestic workforces since 2021 in economies including Canada, the eurozone, the UK and the US, it found.

Among other leading economies, the IMF predicted China’s growth would slow this year to 4.6 per cent from 5.2 per cent in 2023, while forecasts for India, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, have been upgraded to 6.8 per cent for this year.

Russia received one of the biggest upgrades, with growth now projected to be 3.2 per cent this year, 0.6 percentage points higher than previously expected, followed by growth of 1.8 per cent in 2025. The IMF’s doubling of its forecast for Russian growth in its January outlook fed concerns among G7 countries that sanctions were failing to damage Vladimir Putin’s war economy. 

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Gourinchas said Russian expansion was being partly driven by strong oil export revenues, coupled with firm private investment.

“Domestic demand is very strong,” he said. “The sanctions are still degrading and having an impact gradually on the Russian economy, but the economy itself is quite resilient.”

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Tornadoes hit Illinois, Indiana and Texas as severe storms sweep US

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Tornadoes hit Illinois, Indiana and Texas as severe storms sweep US

A series of tornadoes hit parts of Texas, Illinois, and Indiana late Tuesday and overnight, as forecasters warn that the threat of severe weather, including flooding, will continue on Wednesday for tens of millions of people from Texas to Michigan.

At least four tornado touchdowns were reported in eastern Illinois, the National Weather Service (NWS) said, leaving a trail of damage stretching into Indiana, where at least two people were killed.

Video of a separate tornado in Taylor county, central Texas, on Tuesday was posted to weather.com. Officials there reported 60mph wind gusts and “baseball-sized” hail.

A search continued on Wednesday for possible victims of a supercell of storms that followed a path from Kankakee county, Illinois, into Indiana late on Tuesday. Rob Churchill, chief of the Lake Township fire department in Indiana, said in a video on Facebook that the small town of Lake Village had taken “a direct hit”.

“We have multiple homes destroyed, please stay away from the area,” he said.

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Fire department officials said at an early morning Wednesday press conference that there were two fatalities, WTHR News, an NBC affiliate, reported. Details were not immediately available.

Shannon Cothran, sheriff of Newton county in Indiana, said in a separate Facebook video that the immediate threat of dangerous weather had passed, but first responders were faced with challenging circumstances as they dealt with the storm’s aftermath.

“[There’s] a lot of damage. Please do not come here. Do not try to help right now. We’ve got a lot of first responders out here doing their job, just give us some room,” he said.

The tornadoes in parts of Illinois and Indiana downed trees and power lines in an area south of Chicago, and overwhelmed 911 operators, officials said. The Kankakee county sheriff’s office said one tornado touched down near the Kankakee fairgrounds before moving north-east into Aroma park, where it caused extensive damage.

JB Pritzker, the Democratic Illinois governor, said in a post on X early Wednesday that he was briefed on the storm and tornado damage and that the state’s emergency management agency was in contact with local officials.

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“Keeping in our thoughts all Illinoisans impacted by the severe weather – we’ll be here to help them recover,” he said.

Severe storms dumping rain and hail in parts of the midwest were threatening to bring intense tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail from the southern plains to the southern Great Lakes, according to the NWS. States from Oklahoma to Michigan were under tornado watches.

Andrew Lyons, a meteorologist with the weather service’s storm prediction center, told the Associated Press that the exact number of tornado touchdowns would not be known until after officials conducted damage assessments.

He described it as a fairly typical early spring strong storm system that was expected to continue to move east and northeast towards the Atlantic coast on Wednesday, likely bringing more severe weather, he said.

Brandon Buckingham, an AccuWeather meteorologist, said at least 10 tornadoes were spotted in Illinois, Indiana and Texas.

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“There were nearly 200 filtered reports of severe weather spanning more than 2,500 miles from Texas to Michigan,” he said in a post on the weather service’s website.

The forecaster said the chain of storms would peak midweek and “could become the most widespread and impactful severe weather outbreak so far this year”.

The severe weather could reach Washington DC by Wednesday afternoon, CBS News reported, bringing new threats of damaging winds and tornadoes. A line of storms was forecast to sweep east and move into Ohio and Tennessee, including the cities of Cincinnati, Memphis and Nashville, it said.

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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian

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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian

American Steve Emt competes in Sunday’s mixed doubles match against Italy, which the U.S. won.

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Anyone watching the Winter Paralympics has probably taken note of Steve Emt, who — along with Laura Dwyer — is representing Team USA in the Games’ first-ever mixed doubles event.

Their performance is one thing: The pair notched three dramatic, back-to-back wins in the round-robin tournament to reach the semifinals, marking the first time the U.S. has qualified for a medal round in wheelchair curling since the 2010 Paralympics.

After losing to Korea in the semifinals, Emt and Dwyer will face Latvia in the bronze medal match on Tuesday, in the hopes of winning the U.S. its first Paralympic medal in wheelchair curling.

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But it’s their teamwork and attitude on ice that really set them apart. Emt, in particular, has charmed the internet, with his booming baritone delivering a steady stream of encouragement to his doubles partner and demands to the granite stones they’re sliding (“curl!” “sit!”).

“I have three older siblings. I was always on the basketball court getting beat up by them, so I had to assert myself on the court, around the kitchen table, everything,” he said when asked about his deep voice this week.

Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer celebrate during a match this week.

Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer have made sure to celebrate their wins, of which there have been many throughout this wheelchair curling mixed doubles round-robin tournament.

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While Emt, 56, is competing in a new event, he’s no stranger to the sport: The 10-time national champion and three-time Paralympian is the most decorated Paralympic curler in U.S. history.

But he didn’t know what curling was until he got recruited off the street just over a decade ago.

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Emt, who is 6 feet, 5 inches tall, was enjoying a day in Cape Cod, Mass., in 2013 when a stranger with slicked-back hair approached and asked if he was local. Emt replied that he lived in Connecticut and suspiciously asked why.

“He said, ‘Well, I train with the Paralympic rowing team here in the Cape. I saw you pushing up the hill back there. With your build, I could make you an Olympian in a year,’” Emt recalled, referring to his wheelchair. “And I heard ‘Olympics,’ I’m like: Let’s go. What the hell is curling?”

After their conversation, Emt drove home and did some research, confirming that curling was not related to weightlifting, as he originally suspected.

“I went back two weeks later and I threw my first stone, and it just bit me,” he said.

Before long, Emt was making the two-and-a-half-hour drive to Massachusetts to spend the weekend training with that stranger-turned-coach, Tony Colacchio. He made the U.S. wheelchair curling team in 2014 and competed at his first world championship in 2015. Emt made his Paralympic debut in Pyeongchang in 2018, five years after that fateful encounter.

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Emt, speaking to reporters in October, said the sport of curling has changed him as a person, mellowing him out. But the existence of the sport as a competitive outlet for athletes with disabilities changed his life.

Emt had been an all-star high school athlete, an Army West Point cadet and a UConn basketball walk-on before a drunk driving incident paralyzed him from the waist down at 25 years old.

“I’m a jock … I need to compete, and I didn’t have anything going on in my life,” Emt said. “Seventeen years after my crash, I had a hole, and then [Colacchio] came along and stalked me into the sport.”

By that point, Emt had spent years working as a middle school math teacher, a high school basketball coach and a motivational speaker. The latter has been his full-time job for almost a decade, taking him to over 100 schools across the country each year. He tells those teenagers about the chance Colacchio took on him, encouraging them to “be a Tony.”

“Go sit with that kid at lunch that’s sitting alone … smile [at] somebody in a hallway, get your heads out of your phones, get your heads out of the sand,” he continued. “We’re all going through something … and a simple ‘hello’ or ‘good morning,’ it could change their day. It could change somebody’s life.”

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Why Emt now shares his story 

This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 20

This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 2034.

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Emt wasn’t always so willing to open up. For the first half a year after his 1995 crash, he told everyone a deer had run in front of his car rather than admit he had gotten behind the wheel drunk.

“I was lying to myself, I was lying to everybody around me,” he said. “I didn’t want kids to look at me in my hometown, in the state, and everyone around the country, as a drunk driver. I wanted them to look at me as a stud athlete and a great person.”

Emt had been a “stud athlete”: His talents in high school basketball, soccer and baseball made him a star in his hometown of Hebron, Conn., and earned him a spot on the basketball team at West Point.

But he dropped out two years later, after his father’s sudden death from a heart attack. He went home to Connecticut and eventually enrolled at UConn, where he walked on to its storied basketball team, joining future NBA greats like Donyell Marshall. Emt says, with a chuckle, that he had 38.7 seconds of playing time in his two years.

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Emt was wearing his Big East championship jacket the night of his 1995 accident, which he says left him for dead on the side of the highway. When he woke up from a coma a few days later, he learned he would never walk again.

And he didn’t want to tell people why, until a newspaper reporter approached him six months later wanting to tell his story — and encouraged him to be honest. He said the opportunity to “come clean” helped him accept what he’d done and forgive himself.

“That’s my label: Yeah I’m a curler, yeah I’m a speaker, yeah I’m a drunk driver,” he said. “I’m in a wheelchair because of a drunk driving crash, and I want you to know it and I want you to learn from me.”

Emt first got into motivational speaking about eight months after his accident, and has been doing it ever since. He calls it his therapy.

He says that and curling — which is about shaking hands with competitors instead of smack-talking them — has helped him slow down and appreciate the little things. Relocating to Wisconsin and the chiller pace of Midwest life has also helped. And he says he cherishes the platform that curling has given him.

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“I want people to know: ‘Hey, when you’re ready to talk, I’m here for you.’ This is what I do, from my speaking to my curling, whatever it is, there are so many opportunities to be successful again,” he said. “When you wake up and you’re told you’re never going to walk again, it’s like, what do I do now? … And I just want people to know that there are so many avenues out there, so many things to do.”

Emt, the oldest Paralympian on Team USA, originally aimed to make it to three Games. But he’s now eyeing even more, as he’d like to compete on home turf in Salt Lake City in 2034 (two Games away).

“I’m going to be like 90 years old competing at the Paralympics,” he laughed.

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A minor, 2.3-magnitude earthquake struck about 12 miles north of New York City on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 10:17 a.m. Eastern in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., data from the agency shows.

The Westchester County emergency services department said in a statement that it had not received any reports of damage.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 2:18 p.m. Eastern.

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