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Ukrainian negotiator claims advances in talks with Russia, possibility of ‘direct consultations’ between Zelensky, Putin in future

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Ukrainian negotiator claims advances in talks with Russia, possibility of ‘direct consultations’ between Zelensky, Putin in future
A column of tanks marked with the Z image stretches into the gap as they proceed northwards alongside the Mariupol-Donetsk freeway on March 23. (Maximilian Clarke/Sipa)

Russia has revised its Ukraine battle technique to deal with taking management of the Donbas and different areas in japanese Ukraine with a goal date of early Could, based on a number of US officers accustomed to the newest US intelligence assessments. 

Greater than a month into the battle, Russian floor forces have been unable to maintain management of areas the place they’ve been combating.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is beneath stress to reveal he can present a victory, and japanese Ukraine is the place he’s most definitely to attain that, officers say. US intelligence intercepts recommend Putin is targeted on Could 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” based on a US official.

Could 9 is a distinguished vacation on the Russian calendar, a day on which the nation marks the Nazi give up in World Struggle II with an enormous parade of troops and weaponry throughout Pink Sq. in entrance of the Kremlin. The officers say Putin needs to rejoice a victory of some sort in his battle that day. 

However different officers be aware even when there’s a Russian celebration, an precise victory could also be additional off. 

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“Putin could have a victory parade on 9 Could regardless the standing of the battle or peace talks,” a European protection official mentioned. “Alternatively: a victory parade with what troops and autos?”

Nonetheless, US and European officers say any deadlines Moscow could set rhetorically don’t change the truth on the bottom that Russia seems to be making ready for the prospect of an prolonged battle.

A European diplomat mentioned whereas the Kremlin is speaking optimistically, Putin is making ready for a “Chechnya-style lengthy, drawn-out battle, as a result of he, to a sure extent, has nowhere else to go on this.”

There are a number of causes behind the Could timeframe, the officers say. Because the winter freeze ends and the bottom softens, it is going to be more durable for heavy Russian floor items to maneuver, that means it’s important for these forces to get into place as quickly as attainable, US intelligence assesses. 

Russian-backed fighters have additionally already been in that area for years. The Donbas area of Jap Ukraine is the place Russian separatist forces took management of territory in 2014.

Ukrainian officers have publicly pointed to the date as properly. “Forward of Could 9, Putin set the aim of a victory parade for this battle,” Ukrainian Safety Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov mentioned on Thursday.

Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk informed CNN’s Wolf Blitzer Friday the Ukrainians consider they’re dealing with a “very complicated and troublesome month” as Putin tries meet a deadline.

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“His final aim is, was, and can be to take over Ukraine, however he failed. He failed as a result of a really sturdy resolve of Ukrainian navy and really sturdy unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions which have been imposed by the US and G7 and the European Union,” Yatsenyuk mentioned. “So now, so far as I see, Putin switched to Plan B. My take is that this Plan B has a, sort of, deadline.”

The US additionally assesses Putin is now making ready, for the primary time, to call an general commander of the battle to attain higher Russian successes, two US officers mentioned. The US believes Putin will seemingly identify a normal who has been within the southern a part of Ukraine as a result of that could be a place the place Russians have succeeded of their targets.

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Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire holds as thousands seek to return to homes

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Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire holds as thousands seek to return to homes

A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah appeared to be holding on Wednesday morning, raising hopes that some of the more than 1mn Lebanese civilians displaced by the conflict would be able to return home.

The deal, which took effect at 4am local time, was described by US President Joe Biden as “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities”.

Thousands of evacuated residents attempted to return to their homes in Beirut’s bombed-out southern suburbs on Wednesday, as the Lebanese government gave its official backing to the ceasefire.

“Today we begin the process of rebuilding what was destroyed,” said Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati. “Despite the great pain and this great catastrophe that afflicted the nation . . . it is a new day.”

But in a sign of the fragility of the deal, the Israel Defense Forces issued an “urgent message” to the residents of southern Lebanon, warning them not to return to their villages or approach Israeli forces.

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An Israeli security official said the country’s jets were still patrolling over Lebanon and that ground troops were positioned inland and “prepared for any developments and any violations”.

He added that since the morning there had been “several instances” in which “suspicious people” had come close to Israeli troops, who responded with warning fire. 

The official said such “isolated events” could recur in coming hours “until people understand what’s happening on the ground”.

The Lebanese army also called on civilians to wait before returning to “occupied territories” in the south of the country and to exercise caution due to unexploded ordnance in other areas.

More than 1mn Lebanese people have been displaced by the fighting, which was triggered when Hizbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, began firing into northern Israel in the days after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack from Gaza.

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About 60,000 Israelis have also been evacuated from the north of their country due to Hizbollah rocket, missile and drone fire.

During the conflict, more than 3,700 Lebanese and more than 140 Israelis have been killed.

The offensive dealt a series of devastating blows to Hizbollah, killing its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and damaging large amounts of its weapons and infrastructure, as well as destroying broad swaths of the country’s east and south.

In a pre-recorded video message on Tuesday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the objective of the war had been to return northern Israeli residents to their homes. But he stopped short of calling for them to do so immediately.

Northern Israeli mayors and regional council heads had blasted Netanyahu on Tuesday for agreeing the deal with Hizbollah.

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Dahiyeh residents celebrate the ceasefire deal, with one man carrying a picture of the assassinated Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Beirut, Lebanon © Bilal Hussein/AP

Under the terms of the agreement, announced by Biden and approved by Israel’s cabinet, the IDF will gradually withdraw from Lebanon over a period of 60 days and be replaced by the Lebanese army.

The Lebanese government is formally required to “prevent Hizbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel”, while Israel is obliged “not to carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets”.

Hizbollah will be barred from rebuilding its infrastructure in southern parts of Lebanon. The group’s fighters are meant to move mainly north of the Litani river, which runs up to 30km from the Israel-Lebanon border.

The deal is based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the previous Israel-Hizbollah war in 2006, but was never properly implemented.

Hizbollah has accepted the ceasefire agreement, according to people involved in the negotiations.

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Iran also welcomed the ceasefire, despite previously insisting that Israel had to end its war against Hamas in Gaza before the hostilities could stop.

Hizbollah is the most powerful force in the Tehran-led “axis of resistance”, an umbrella of militant groups that began launching attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas.

Hamas itself issued a statement commending Hizbollah’s “immense sacrifices” and the “pivotal role” it had played over the past year’s hostilities, but stopped short of praising the ceasefire.

Biden said the US and France would work with Israel and Lebanon for this week’s deal to be fully implemented, adding there would be no US troops deployed in southern Lebanon.

He added that his administration would pursue an effort to revive talks among Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Israel on a Gaza ceasefire.

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Mike Waltz, the national security adviser of president-elect Donald Trump, has also hailed what he termed “concrete steps towards de-escalation in the Middle East”.

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In parts of Dahiyeh, an area of Beirut where Hizbollah has a controlling presence, traffic was at a standstill, as people sought to return to their homes. Many waved both Hizbollah and Lebanon’s flags as they sang and shot guns in the air in celebration.

“As soon as the bombs stopped this morning, I came here,” said Hajj Amin, a 56-year-old notary public. “I just wanted to see with my own eyes what the enemy had done to my neighbourhood.”

Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament, called on his compatriots to “return to your land, for it will be glorified by your return to it, even if you live in the rubble of houses”.

Netanyahu said that “the duration of the ceasefire depends on what will happen in Lebanon”.

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He also insisted he had reached “full understandings” with the US that Israel will maintain “full military freedom of action” in the event that Hizbollah breaks the terms of the deal.

“If Hizbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack,” Netanyahu said. “If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles, we will attack.”

Cartography by Cleve Jones

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Gregg Jarrett: Americans had final say on Jack Smith's 'misbegotten' Trump prosecutions

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Gregg Jarrett: Americans had final say on Jack Smith's 'misbegotten' Trump prosecutions

Fox News legal analyst Gregg Jarrett said Tuesday that President-elect Trump’s latest legal victory “came as no shock” after U.S. special counsel Jack Smith requested to drop the federal election interference case. Jarrett told “Fox & Friends” that Smith appeared “desperate” to help the Democratic presidential nominee win in order to save his job and continue the “misbegotten” prosecutions.

NEW YORK JUDGE GRANTS TRUMP REQUEST TO FILE MOTION TO DISMISS CHARGES, CANCELS SENTENCING INDEFINITELY

GREGG JARRETT: This is no great shock. The moment Trump won, Smith’s misbegotten cases were over. And he knew and feared that that might happen. Which is why he tried to rush the prosecutions before the election. And when he failed, then he attempted to harm Trump’s chances at the ballot box to really see to the public damaging documents right before the election. And that, of course, ignored DOJ rules that forbid it. Even the judge said that’s irregular, but she happily went along with it. You know, the special counsel, I think, was desperate to help the Democratic nominee win so he could keep his job and continue these vindictive prosecutions. Obviously, it didn’t work. Americans had the final say.

WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 1: Special Prosecutor Jack Smith addresses reporters after his grand jury has issued more indictments of former President Donald Trump in Washington, DC.  (Bill O’Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

These two cases should never have been brought. Jack Smith was appointed three days after Trump announced he was running for president, which tells you everything you need to know. No fair or neutral prosecutor would have ever done this. These were purely political, which is what Jack Smith has always done in his career. They were legally weak based on completely untested legal theories, and constitutional roadblocks were everywhere in front of him. The Supreme Court shredded the J6 case on immunity grounds, and the high court also said, ‘DOJ, you’re misusing the obstruction charges.’ So in the end, there was really nothing left of Smith’s cases. 

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GREGG JARRETT: TRUMP’S SENTENCING IS CANCELED. WILL REALITY EVER TAKE A BITE OUT OF BRAGG’S OUTRAGEOUS CASE?

Smith’s case was related to the investigation into the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol breach.

“The Government has moved to dismiss the Superseding Indictment without prejudice,” U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan wrote in a decision. “Defendant does not oppose the Motion…and the court will grant it.”

Smith also filed a motion to drop his appeal in his classified records case against Trump – a case that was tossed in July by federal Judge Aileen Cannon. Cannon ruled Smith was unlawfully appointed as special counsel. 

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The moves come after Smith, earlier this month after Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, signaled he would begin winding down his case against Trump. The filing went live on the Department of Justice docket on Monday afternoon.

Fox News’ Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

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China’s market targets are ‘just psychological’, says former regulator

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China’s market targets are ‘just psychological’, says former regulator

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A former senior Chinese financial regulator has said top Beijing leaders set “psychological” targets for the nation’s stock markets and currency exchange rate that are not based on fundamentals.

The comments to a seminar by Xiao Gang, former head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, offer a rare insight into the often murky world of elite policymaking at a time when the Communist party under President Xi Jinping has been tightening control of the financial system.

In videoed remarks made at the seminar in mid-November at the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University and published on the social media site X last week, Xiao said that while top leaders did not officially set market levels, they became nervous when certain thresholds were passed.

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Xiao, who was removed as CSRC chief in 2016 after a severe market downturn, said senior officials kept “goals” in their minds for the markets. These were not “personal” targets but depended “rather on what the leadership considers as the standard”.

He said China’s leaders became uncomfortable if the stock market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite index, fell below 3,000 points.

“The 3,000-point goal is just a psychological goal; it has no scientific proof and does not come with any [formal] government order,” Xiao said, laughing. “But there is a consensus [among the top leadership].”

“This has been a [perception] ingrained in people’s minds for many years. But how much scientific basis is there for this? None,” he said.

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The frank comments from Xiao, who worked in China’s central bank before playing an important role in banking sector reform as head of state-owned Bank of China, were highly unusual even for a retired senior official. In China, discussion or criticism of the internal workings of the leadership process can lead to severe punishment.

Xiao said China’s leaders had once considered any weakening of the renminbi through Rmb7 to the dollar to be a very worrying prospect, but when this did finally occur several years ago, “nothing significant happened” to the markets.

“It wasn’t us who were worried; it was the senior leadership,” he said.

The onshore renminbi was trading onshore at Rmb7.26 to the dollar on Wednesday.

Beijing sees the exchange rate as critically important to its mission to develop China as a reliable trading partner, with numerous officials calling for a stable exchange rate against the dollar.

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Chinese authorities also see the country’s stock markets as both venues for corporate fundraising and important tools for maintaining social stability. Investors have long suspected the top leadership maintains unofficial targets for the markets and tries to steer trading when prices breach these levels.

Millions of Chinese households participate in the stock market as one of a limited range of investment opportunities available to the middle class in the country, particularly after a recent real estate sector crash.

State-affiliated entities, known as the “national team”, occasionally launch buying sprees to prop up stocks. In September, the government announced one of its biggest monetary policy interventions yet to encourage more institutional buying of equities.

Xiao was asked at the seminar about the government’s use of the “national team” to support markets.

“The ‘national team’ only intervenes at rock-bottom levels, such as 2,600, 2,700, or 2,800 points,” he said, referring to the Shanghai Composite Index. The index was at 3,276.58 after Wednesday’s morning trading session, up 0.5 per cent on the day.

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Xiao’s remarks drew a stinging rebuke from Dong Shaopeng, an advisory committee member of the Securities Association of China, a body under the direct supervision of the CSRC.

As a former regulatory official and a veteran of the financial sector, Xiao’s remarks could cause turmoil in public opinion, Dong wrote in an article posted on the social media platform Weixin.

“Such information, when taken out of context, spreads false information,” Dong said.

Xiao could not be reached for comment. The CSRC and the PBC School of Finance did not respond to a request for comment. The People’s Bank of China declined to comment.

Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko

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