Connect with us

News

The search for Japan’s ‘lost’ art

Published

on

The search for Japan’s ‘lost’ art

On a weekday morning in late September, an hour and a half from Tokyo off a side-road near the town of Sakura, the ticket queue for the Kawamura Memorial DIC Museum of Art is long. Cars wait along a cedar-lined lane for a spot in the second overflow parking zone. The gift shop has been so overwhelmed by customers in recent days that management has shut its doors. By 11:45am, the digital screen outside the museum’s Belvedere Italian restaurant declares the waiting time for a table is now 181 minutes; a special notice on the website recommends bringing a packed lunch instead.

The museum has said it will close in early 2025, and thousands of art lovers, in their stampede to the Chiba countryside, can sense an emergency. Large parts of corporate Japan can sense something far, far more alarming.

The unfolding saga of this comparatively obscure museum — and of the hundreds of artworks owned by the listed chemicals company behind it — is also an unfolding saga of corporate Japan and what version of shareholder capitalism the country as a whole wants to subject itself to. A belated reckoning now looks to be rearing back up from the murky late 1980s, when banks encouraged Japanese company founders to borrow wildly against what were then soaring domestic real estate values.

It is a first, potentially trailblazing instance of a company revealing the extent of its art collection under explicitly governance-driven pressure. Of the 754 works in the Kawamura collection, 384 are owned by DIC — pretty much all of the most famous works belong to the company and thus their ownership is now caught in an ideological limbo.

People arrive by bus at the Kawamura Memorial DIC Museum © Photographs for the FT by Androniki Christodoulou
A queue of people forms after disembarking from a museum bus, its side emblazoned with a large portrait of an Old Master
Since news of the museum’s imminent closure, there have been long queues of visitors © Androniki Christodoulou

One argument — now more visibly gathering steam as Japanese companies are held to ever higher standards by their investors — is that art is simply an asset of a company that they, the shareholders own, and should be treated like any other asset.

The counter is that however compelling the argument above, companies have a wider societal function than simply service to shareholders, and that their asset portfolios should be assessed accordingly. That same argument holds that Japan, as a whole, has benefited from this much broader interpretation, and would be the poorer if everything were subjected to the hard rules of shareholder capitalism. The debate, raging around the vast expanse of “non-core” assets and business ventures maintained by Japanese companies, is now at the heart of a tectonic structural shift.

Advertisement

One of the nation’s most exquisite dirty secrets — the ambiguous ownership of highly valuable art, the exploitation of listed companies to protect generational wealth and habitual asset-mingling between families and public companies — has broken the surface after lying relatively undisturbed for decades. In this instance, it has been exposed by Oasis Management, a notoriously catalytic shareholder activist. But it is part of a broader, inexorable-looking trend.

“Japanese companies were told they were worth billions. It was funny money, so they did funny things,” says Toby Rodes of Kaname Capital, a fund manager whose strategy includes delving into the art collections hidden on the Tokyo stock market, using their existence as a signal of more profound governance shortcomings.

There is no particular allegation that anything illegal has taken place — simply that the Japanese market has been supernaturally tolerant of blurred lines. In his particular focus on art, Rodes is a rarity, but the hunt for governance failures and the potential returns that come with repairing those has attracted scores of activist and value funds to Japan.

A male auctioneer in black tie presides over a Sotheby’s auction room with Renoir’s painting on display
Renoir’s ‘Bal du moulin de la Galette’ set a record in 1990 when it was purchased at auction for $78mn by Japanese papermaking company Daishowa Ashitaka © Getty Images

Not all of the buying in the late 1980s and early 1990s was ostentatious. But the escapades that the era fuelled became the stuff of legend. Japanese company bosses — in some cases with bankruptcy lurking quite soon in their future — set jaw-dropping records for purchases of Van Gogh’s “Sunflowers”, Renoir’s “Bal du moulin de la Galette”, Picasso’s “Les Noces de Pierrette” and many other gems.

The bursting of the bubble triggered a quiet, bad-debted and, to many, face-losing outflow of Japan’s art throughout the downturn of the late 1990s. Some instances, such as the efforts to trace the whereabouts of Van Gogh’s “Portrait of Dr Gachet” after it fell into the hands of creditors, have been multi-decade international mysteries. But these outflows were not, by any means, a full clearance sale. Across corporate Japan, major works accumulated in the heyday still loom over the rarefied exclusivity of boardrooms.

It is a subject about which very few in the art-dealing world like to talk on the record; often because they now see that governance improvements in Japan and the enforcement of transparency on listed companies could actually flood “lost” art on to an illiquid market, and reveal more of its murky past.

Advertisement

$500mn (¥74bn)Estimated value of DIC’s Kawamura Rothko collection

¥11.2bnDIC’s formal book value for its entire art collection

Where is it now? Funds and art experts suspect that an unknowable trove, technically owned by listed companies, has made its way into the private homes of their founders or the founders’ descendants. Masterpieces almost certainly sit, undeclared, in company-owned warehouses around the country, art dealers say. VIP visitors to the Tokyo headquarters of Nomura may find themselves sitting at a table with a Monet at one end and a Chagall at the other. Special guests of Marubeni may catch a glimpse of Botticelli’s “La Bella Simonetta”.

“I will never forget when I stumbled across a ‘museum’ that doubled as the executive floor of a Japanese broadcaster,” said one veteran US-based fund manager. “Being protected from a change of control by legal regulation, the entrenched management team had a penchant for very fine works of art. The team escorting me to the elevator after a meeting got nervous when I paused in front of a Cézanne.”

Now, in an era when urgent corporate governance reforms are being ordered by both the Japanese government and Tokyo Stock Exchange, when greater transparency is being demanded and shareholder activism has become more emboldened, the debate around these assets threatens a painful rethink of Japan’s relationship between companies, their founders, society and shareholders.

Advertisement
A man takes a photo of a building that resembles a round castle tower set amid lawns
The Kawamura museum is home to a large art collection amassed by listed company DIC © Androniki Christodoulou
Women resting on a bench with a view towards Henry Moore’s sculpture in the distance
The museum garden features a Henry Moore sculpture © Androniki Christodoulou

Despite its somewhat awkward location in the sticks, the Kawamura Memorial museum, elegantly constructed at the end of Japan’s 1980s bubble era and set in gardens dotted with a Henry Moore and other sculptures, has plenty to justify a visit. Some would argue, excessively so: a financial anomaly hiding in plain sight for decades.

The collection was assembled by the founding family of the Dainippon Ink and Chemicals Corporation (DIC) from the 1970s. Whatever it lacks in thematic coherence it more than makes up for in stunning reminders of just how acquisitive Japan became at the peak of its financial powers.

It is no coincidence that the museum opened in 1990 — the year in which, according to FT data analysis, imports of paintings to Japan hit an all-time peak of almost ¥500bn ($3.3bn), or more than 10 times higher than in 1985. By 1992, the value had plummeted again to ¥34bn ($229mn).

Inside the museum’s softly lit galleries hang works by Matisse, Chagall, Ernst, Monet, Picasso and Renoir. There is a remarkable Pollock, two works by Twombly and a special alcove housing Rembrandt’s “Portrait of a Man in a Broad-Brimmed Hat”.

A 17th-century painting of a man in black coat and hat, with a white frilly ruff around his neck
Rembrandt’s ‘Portrait of a Man in a Broad-Brimmed Hat’ (1635) is housed in one of the museum’s special alcoves © Alamy
A 19th-century painting of a nude woman with her hair tied up and a white sheet on her legs
‘Bather’ (1891) by Renoir, whose works hang in the museum’s galleries © Alamy

But Kawamura’s most valuable show-stopper is upstairs, in a dedicated room walled with seven panels by Mark Rothko, from a collection originally painted for the Four Seasons restaurant in New York’s Seagram Building. The huge works are widely seen as part of the most important commission Rothko ever undertook. The auction record for just one Rothko painting stands at $86.9mn. According to art experts consulted by investors, the ones in Kawamura might, together, be worth well over half a billion dollars.

Despite the qualities of this extraordinary collection, it has been on display here for 34 years without ever generating more than a modest stream of visitors at an average rate of just a few hundred people a day.

But on August 27 the board of indebted, unprofitable DIC, which owns the museum and much of the art inside, made a surprise announcement. Because of the relationship between the company and the museum, and because of the “opinions expressed by investors”, said the statement, it had now become impracticable to maintain and operate the museum in its current state. The museum, it declared, will “temporarily close” from January 2025. It then, on September 30, sent out a second notice saying that it would postpone the closure until March 2025 “taking into account visitor numbers” since its earlier notice.

Advertisement
A black and white photo of a bald man standing in front of large painting
Kawamura’s most valuable show-stoppers include seven panels by Mark Rothko © Getty Images

Crucially, though, the DIC statement addressed one of the great enigmas that have hung, permanently, over the museum. Until now, the company has never specified how much of the art it displays in its museum it actually owns, and how much is owned by the family. It has, accordingly, not ascribed a precise market-to-market value to the art in the published accounts.

But in its August 27 statement the company came partially clean. Of the 754 works in the collection, it said, 384 are owned by the company — and thus, activists would argue, by the shareholders. DIC put a formal book value of just Y11.2bn ($77mn) on the company’s art — an extremely low reckoning of its potential value were the art to come on to the market.

Several things have happened since that bombshell. The first is that many Japanese have seen the news, panicked that the days of a great national treasure are now numbered — even though most had not previously bothered to visit — and decided that they must trek over there in their thousands. A second is that the decision has been vehemently challenged. Prominent “DON’T CLOSE IT!” signs have popped up along the roads around the museum, and an online petition against the closure appeared on the local municipality’s website. As of last weekend, it had more than 47,000 signatures.

The third and arguably most life-changing effect for Japan has been to focus the attention of investors on how many other DICs there may be lurking around the country. Hedge funds that now specialise in this sort of socially fraught treasure hunt, and have spoken to the FT over recent months, suspect that there are dozens of companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that bear a close resemblance.

The background to DIC’s decision to close the museum was more than a decade in the making. The country’s first governance code setting best practice for companies was introduced in 2015, and was accompanied by a stewardship code that set out the obligations on investors to hold companies’ managements to account. Since then, the situation has begun to change. Companies have gradually begun to raise governance standards, even when they have not fully accepted the premise of shareholder primacy. Well-known shareholder activists, such as ValueAct Capital and Elliott, have focused heavily on the opportunities in Japan, while smaller funds, such as Oasis, 3D and the group headed by Yoshiaki Murakami, have managed to run a series of hard-hitting campaigns.


There was — and still is — a great deal to fix. Japanese boards were not diverse, were very rarely controlled or overseen by a majority of independent directors, and shareholder activism was decried as a barbaric western practice. This, in effect, conferred huge freedom on the managements of listed companies to run them as they pleased, rather than more directly in the interests of shareholders.

Advertisement

To doubly secure their freedom, Japanese companies created great networks of shareholdings in other, friendly listed companies on the understanding that those blocs of shares would never vote against management.

And to triple-lock it in, Japanese companies constructed a collective narrative that they existed for a higher purpose than simply expanding shareholder value and maximising profits. Long before BlackRock’s Larry Fink reversed years of investment dogma and began urging a more responsible recalibration of corporate focus and a broader definition of corporate “purpose”, Japanese companies were comfortably citing their grander purpose and sense of duty to multiple stakeholders. They have argued, forcefully, that Japanese society has benefited from this, no matter how inefficiently they have deployed capital.

An obvious question, now asked with ever more frequency and consequence, is why should so many — 3,951 at the last count — Japanese companies be listed at all, given the lengths they have gone to avoid the structures, scrutiny and potential pressure that comes with being listed?

A large white sign with Japanese writing on it. The sign is attached to railings. There is a white car and a person in the background
A protest sign at the museum car park reads: ‘100 Kamakura Memorial Museum of Art, a cultural symbol for the local community for over 30 years. Don’t lose it!!’ © Androniki Christodoulou
People line up to board the special museum shuttle bus at Kawamura
Special shuttle buses are being used to transport the increased influx of visitors to the museum © Androniki Christodoulou

Several can see the governance writing on the wall. Within the past year, the managements of two companies still closely tied to their founding families have decided to undertake management buyouts and de-list from the exchange — away from activists, governance strictures and the general scrutiny now in prospect. They are Benesse, the education company whose founding family established the famous Benesse Art Site on Naoshima island, and Taisho Pharmaceutical, whose founding family’s art is displayed in the Uehara Museum and include works by Cézanne, Renoir and Corot.

“The common thread [is that] both company founders are art collectors and were likely feeling the pressure of needing to come clean on the conflicts of interest and poor governance that put the art on the walls,” said one private equity executive in Tokyo who knows of at least half a dozen other companies contemplating a similar move.

The key to understanding what is happening, says Rodes, co-founder of Kaname Capital, is Japan’s long history with extremely high levels of inheritance tax — a levy of around 50 per cent on large estates that can, in theory, wipe out family wealth over a few generations.

Advertisement

One of the most popular ways to deal with this was for families to list their companies and hold on to significant stakes so that there was always a cache of shares that could be liquidated to pay the taxman. The stock market, in that light, has been abused as a means of securing generational wealth, rather than as a mechanism for growing good companies. Families would maintain their control over the listed companies’ boards by installing favourable directors.

Because of this extremely common pattern, say Rodes and others, families came to see the balance sheets of listed companies as, in effect, their own asset. It was a critical psychological leap that lies right at the heart of the corporate governance problems that investors are now shining the brightest of lights upon.

“Looking at the art collections is one way of bringing bad governance to the surface,” says Rodes. “It is our way of saying, ‘We know what you did’. Art is the governance sledgehammer. Could the companies do more with these notoriously illiquid assets? Absolutely.”

Joji Kaneko, a visitor to the Kawamura museum who has travelled more than 400km by car from Nagoya, is now admiring a wall of art by Frank Stella. “I’m here because I’ve heard that this museum is going to close in January and this could be my last chance to see everything here,” Kaneko says. “It’s a sad thing, but I guess it’s just something that can’t be helped. Money always wins in these situations, doesn’t it?”

The statement by DIC in which it announced the closure of its museum referred to “the opinions of investors” — euphemistically, the questions raised by certain shareholders, including Oasis Management, around whether the corporate ownership of art can be justified when the company is heavily indebted and the Tokyo Stock Exchange itself is calling for listed companies to demonstrate greater capital efficiency.

Advertisement

Beyond the polite protest posters outside the Kawamura museum, there is a low-level outrage that shareholders should be able to force companies to behave differently than they have done in the past. But change is in the air.

“Owning art and pretending you are doing God’s work is crazy. Boards can no longer pretend there is nothing to see here,” says Rodes.

Leo Lewis is the FT’s Tokyo bureau chief. Additional reporting by Dan Clark

Find out about our latest stories first — follow FT Weekend on Instagram and X, and subscribe to our podcast Life & Art wherever you listen

Advertisement

News

A long-buried recording and the Supreme Court of old (CT+) : Consider This from NPR

Published

on

A long-buried recording and the Supreme Court of old (CT+) : Consider This from NPR
Recently, movie critic Bob Mondello brought us a story about how he found a 63-year-old recording of his father arguing a case before the Supreme Court. The next day, he bumped into Nina Totenberg, NPR’s legal affairs correspondent, in the newsroom. They were talking so animatedly that we ushered them into a studio to continue the conversation.To unlock this and other bonus content — and listen to every episode sponsor-free — sign up for NPR+ at plus.npr.org. Regular episodes haven’t changed and remain available every weekday.Email us at considerthis@npr.org.
Continue Reading

News

2 Survivors Describe the Terror and Tragedy of the Tahoe Avalanche

Published

on

2 Survivors Describe the Terror and Tragedy of the Tahoe Avalanche

The blizzard blew so fierce that the skier at the head of the line kept disappearing into a whiteout. The winds were gusting over 50 miles per hour. Almost four feet of fresh powder had piled up and more was falling every minute.

At the back of the line was Anton Auzans, trudging behind 12 other backcountry skiers climbing through a clearing high in California’s Sierra Nevada. He had his hood pulled low against the pelting wind.

Advertisement

Then came a single word yelled by a ski guide somewhere ahead: “Avalanche!”

Mr. Auzans looked up in time to see a wall of white dotted with strange blurs of color. In the moment before it reached him, he realized that the colors were the tumbling skis and clothing of the other skiers.

He dove behind a dead tree for protection, but the snow was surging down the mountain like a raging river. It poured around the trunk, dragged him away and swallowed him in darkness.

Advertisement

Hundreds of thousands of pounds of snow rushed into the clearing, slowing as it spilled over flatter ground, and settled into a dense pile and a terrible silence. The slide had buried everyone in the group. Almost.

Two men from the group had fallen behind.

Advertisement

Back in the woods, Jim Hamilton was struggling with a sticky ski binding that had refused to lock onto his boot and caused him to fall behind. He was cursing his bad luck.

He was hustling to catch the group, following their ski track through the woods. With him was a ski guide. Mr. Hamilton expected to catch sight of the others at the next clearing. Instead, their track abruptly ended at a rough berm of snow debris, as if a giant plow had driven through.

Mr. Hamilton had been too far behind to hear the warning or the rush of snow. For a second he was mystified. Where was everybody?

Advertisement

Then he heard Mr. Auzans yell. “Major avalanche! Major avalanche! We have people buried!” Mr. Auzans’s head had just poked out of the snow.

Anton Auzans and Jim Hamilton are two survivors of the deadliest avalanche in modern California history. This account is based on a number of interviews with the two men conducted over several hours, in which they offered the first eyewitness telling of what happened.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Jim Hamilton Max Whittaker for The New York Times

Advertisement

Anton Auzans Lauren Segal for The New York Times

The Feb. 17 avalanche killed nine skiers who were among 15 people on a guided trip high in the mountains near Lake Tahoe, including six women who were all close friends.

Advertisement

The two men, both lifelong skiers who had never met before the trip, said that as the storm beat down, conditions steadily grew worse, but their guides largely stuck to an itinerary laid out long before the storm, and led the group beneath steep terrain where a massive slide buried nearly everyone. The few skiers who were free dug desperately to save the others, but were overwhelmed by the number of people trapped, and by the unrelenting blizzard that threatened to cause another deadly slide.

In the days since, many in the public, including some veteran backcountry skiers, have raised questions about why four experienced guides left a protected backcountry hut during a historic storm and led their group across avalanche terrain, while not spreading skiers out so that one avalanche would not take out the whole group.

Advertisement

Those questions remain largely unanswered. The Nevada County Sheriff’s Office and California’s workplace safety agency, Cal-OSHA, are investigating whether there were safety violations or criminal negligence by the company that led the trip, Blackbird Mountain Guides. No findings have been announced.

There were four other survivors: One ski guide, two women in the group and a third man who had signed up for the trip. The surviving women declined to comment through a spokeswoman, as did the other ski client. The guide, a man, could not be reached for comment.

In a statement after the accident, Blackbird Mountain Guides, asked people not to speculate, adding, “It’s too soon to draw conclusions, but investigations are underway.”

Advertisement

A Welcome Forecast of Heavy Snow

The trip started on a blue-sky day.

Advertisement

Mr. Auzans and Mr. Hamilton arrived at Donner Pass, where Interstate 80 cuts through a gap in the mountains, on the morning of Sunday, Feb. 15. The weather was mild and snowy peaks were shining under a clear sky.

Advertisement

Sunday: Groups skied to huts

The plan was to ski three miles over a high mountain ridge east of the highest summit in the area, Castle Peak, to a hidden subalpine basin called Frog Lake. There, at 7,600 feet, sat a cozy collection of backcountry huts that would provide the skiers with hot meals, warm beds and a launching point for human-powered climbs up remote mountains to ski untracked slopes.

A monster winter storm was set to move in that night and drop up to eight feet of snow over four days. The local avalanche forecasting office warned of possible “widespread avalanche activity” and slides large enough to bury people in the days ahead. But the skiers viewed the weather not as a concern, but as a stroke of good luck.

Advertisement

For six weeks the region had gone without a significant storm, leaving the snow thin and crusty and not much fun to ski. The storm promised to bring what the skiers had hoped for, what they had each paid almost $1,500 for: bottomless fresh powder.

At the pass, the two clients were greeted by their guides from Blackbird Mountain Guides, — Andrew Alissandratos, 34, and the guide who survived — and by the third man.

Advertisement

A second group had also hired Blackbird to head to the huts that day: Eight friends, all women in their 40s or early 50s, who had been taking backcountry trips together for years. Many of them also liked to surf. Most had high-powered jobs and impressive résumés. Both groups were led by Blackbird, and had signed up for the same hut trip, but each group had their own pair of guides.

The four guides from Blackbird all had extensive experience and formal training. They checked that everyone had the required safety gear — an avalanche beacon for locating people who are buried; a long, folding probe to pinpoint them under the snow; and a shovel for digging them out. Mr. Auzans and Mr. Hamilton had both taken basic avalanche safety classes, but neither had experienced an avalanche before.

When the topic of the impending storm came up, Mr. Hamilton said the guides told him not to worry, they knew how to pick safe terrain. They would have to stay on treed slopes and avoid the steep inclines that many skiers love, but he said one guide told him there would be so much powder that no one would care.

Advertisement

The groups put climbing skins on the bottom of their skis to grip the snow and climbed up to a ridge on the side of Castle Peak, about 1,700 feet above the freeway.

Mr. Hamilton snapped pictures of views that spilled out seemingly forever. He was 65, a software engineer and grandfather, and had moved to California from Massachusetts a year before. He had only been backcountry skiing four times and would never have attempted a trip like this without expert guides. But he wanted to experience the renowned deep Lake Tahoe backcountry powder, so he had looked online and found the Frog Lake trip on Blackbird’s website. There was one slot left.

Advertisement

“Wow,” he had said to himself, “it’s meant to be.”

On the ridge, the skiers took off their climbing skins for a long ski down an open bowl to a steep snow gully called Frog Lake Notch that cut beneath a granite summit called Perry’s Peak.

Advertisement

On a big powder day, Frog Lake Notch would be a natural avalanche path, but that Sunday, the old snow was firm and safe. By early afternoon, they had reached the huts at Frog Lake.

It was just the kind of experience Mr. Auzans was hoping for.

A 37-year-old electrician in the Bay Area with a young son, he had grown up snowboarding at nearby resorts and in recent years had grown increasingly interested in the backcountry.

Advertisement

He loved the serenity and beauty of the mountains. In summer he backpacked and camped. In winter, backcountry skiing offered the same solitude and grandeur, with the added bonus of primo powder.

At the same time, he knew there was added danger. On the handful of backcountry day trips he had taken, he always went with guides because he did not completely trust himself.

Advertisement

A Rising Danger

Frog Lake’s main hut had a fully stocked kitchen and big leather chairs set in front of a crackling fire. After a dinner of ravioli, the men settled in by the hearth.

Mr. Auzans cracked open the book he had brought on the history of the Donner Party. He was, by his own admission, obsessed with stories of disaster and survival, and wanted to learn about the group of pioneers, who in 1846, tried to cross the Sierra Nevada and got trapped by heavy snowfall. Nearly half of them died and some, stranded for months by deep snow, resorted to cannibalism. Donner Pass still bears their name.

Advertisement

The book sparked a discussion around the fire about the disaster, then other historic disasters.

As they talked, one of the men observed that most disasters aren’t caused by just one thing, but by a series of small events that led to a catastrophe.

Advertisement

On Sunday night it started to snow hard. By the next morning, the huts were covered by nearly a foot of fresh powder and it was still dumping.

The three male clients and the group of women gathered in the main hut for breakfast. While they ate, the four guides met in a separate room to make a plan for the day.

Early Monday, the Sierra Avalanche Center, which forecasts backcountry snow conditions in the region, posted an update: “Avalanche danger is rising. Backcountry travelers could easily trigger large avalanches today.” The center added: “Consider avoiding avalanche terrain in areas where clues to unstable snow are present.”

Advertisement

The forecast now said that the hazard, on a scale of 1 to 5, had increased to Level 3, with “considerable” danger, up from Level 2, with “moderate” danger, on Sunday. But the center continued to warn that, by Monday night, the hazard could increase to Level 4, with “high” danger.

Whether the guides checked those forecasts or conferred with Blackbird headquarters is unclear, the two men said in interviews, because the guide meeting happened behind closed doors. Mr. Hamilton said that the huts did have an internet connection. Blackbird Mountain Guides said in a statement, “Guides in the field are in communication with senior guides at our base, to discuss conditions and routing based upon conditions.”

Advertisement

Most avalanches occur on slopes between 30 and 45 degrees. The guides told the group that they would climb about 800 feet through the trees on the east side of another nearby summit, called Frog Lake Peak, and ski a 25-degree slope that would be safe.

The guides did not ask for feedback or if anyone had misgivings, Mr. Hamilton and Mr. Auzans said, and no one spoke up.

Avalanche prediction has improved dramatically since the 1980s, but knowing when snow is likely to slide has not led to a drop in fatalities. Many backcountry users continue to go into dangerous terrain, even when advised of the risk.

Advertisement

That has caused avalanche safety experts in recent decades to recognize that accidents have as much to do with failures in human decisions as they do with failures in snow layers. In response they have shifted education toward helping people spot human factors that push them to take dangerous risks.

Backcountry users are taught to recognize a group of human decision-making traps that can make getting caught in an avalanche more likely, said Sara Boilen, a psychologist in Montana, an avid backcountry skier and a snow safety researcher who regularly gives an avalanche safety talk.

Advertisement

People skiing familiar terrain — such as experienced guides on home turf — are more likely to assume a familiar route is safe. Skiers who see an opportunity as scarce or fleeting — such as a long-awaited trip or fresh powder — are more likely to downplay the danger. Individuals wanting to fit in with the group may be reluctant to speak out. Novices are prone to defer to someone they see as an expert, and not question their decisions.

In groups of six to 10, statistics show, the risk grows substantially, as numbers give the illusion of safety and unspoken competition pushes the tolerance for risk.

Over time, Dr. Boilen said, taking risks can become normalized.

Advertisement

“It’s very hard to avoid. I’ve seen it in my friends, I’ve seen it in myself,” she said. “You can creep past a red line you would never intentionally step across.”

The ski from the Frog Lake huts on Monday turned out to be fantastic. The guides chose enjoyable runs. The snow was deep and soft. There were no signs of avalanches. Both groups returned to the huts wet, tired and happy, Mr. Hamilton said.

Advertisement

“It was everything you thought it would be. Just epic. And I never once felt like we were in danger,” he said. “I remember watching the women fly by me and they are having a blast.”

Fleeing Into a Storm

By Monday night the snow was hitting harder than ever.

Advertisement

At midnight, the wind started blowing steadily from the southwest, gusting over 40 m.p.h. It howled through the trees and shook the huts.

Advertisement

Monday: Strong winds caused snow to drift

The wind drove snow across the bare peaks above Frog Lake, depositing tons of loose powder on northern slopes in deep, unstable piles. On Perry’s Peak, just above the huts, a pile started to accumulate on a bare slope with an angle of about 35 degrees. It was prime avalanche terrain. It was also right above the path the skiers would take to try to get back to their cars on Donner Pass.

Advertisement

When the skiers woke on Tuesday, the chance of avalanches had increased from possible to likely, according to the Sierra Avalanche Center forecast.

The guides once again held a morning planning meeting in a separate room while their clients had breakfast. When they came out, they told the skiers the groups had to cancel a planned ski lap and leave before conditions got worse.

“‘We have to get out of here now,’” Mr. Auzans recalled them firmly telling the groups.

Advertisement

Returning the way they came in, through Frog Lake Notch, was a no go. The steep slopes were now too dangerous. That left several alternatives, some seemingly riskier than others.

The website for the Frog Lake Huts offered an alternative path down a tree-covered slope to the southeast. There was also a one-lane road to the huts, closed in winter, that went east through safe terrain. Both routes were longer, and would have left the skiers far from their cars.

Advertisement

Tuesday: Skiers returned to trail

Advertisement

A third possibility was to stay in the huts, which had food and water and plenty of room. But the guides never mentioned the option, the men said. Instead, a fourth alternative was chosen by the guides. The groups would head for the cars, retracing much of their path in, but would avoid Frog Lake Notch by going around the back of Perry’s Peak.

Why the guides chose that course of action was not clear to the two men. There was no discussion with clients, Mr. Hamilton and Mr. Auzans said, and no clients openly raised concerns.

“I didn’t say anything,” Mr. Auzans recalled. “I’m not an expert and so I decided to trust the plan.”

Advertisement

An Attempt to Get Out

Winds were gusting at over 50 m.p.h. when they left. At times the skiers could not see more than a few feet.

Advertisement

The women’s and men’s groups combined into one party with four guides, and started zigzagging up a gentle slope to the ridge of Perry’s Peak, 500 feet above the huts.

The snow was hip deep without skis on. The guides took turns in the lead, packing a trail for the others to follow, but it was slow going. An hour later, they had covered less than a mile.

As they trudged uphill, skiers naturally bunched up behind the leader. At points on the climb the guides stopped the group and sent skiers one at a time across steeper slopes.

Advertisement

At around 10 a.m. they reached the ridge, stopped in the howling wind to pull off their climbing skins, and skied down the north side.

Mr. Hamilton watched the women, all veteran powder skiers, slip along effortlessly. He was not as graceful. He fell and struggled to get up. By the time they regrouped at the bottom, it was about 10:45 a.m.

Advertisement

The group now faced a mile-long climb up a gentle valley beneath Perry’s Peak. Beyond it was a long downhill glide to the cars. No part of the path crossed steep slopes. The group appeared to be home free.

The women put on their climbing skins ahead of the men and left with the lead guide to break trail. Mr. Auzans and the third client soon followed.

Mr. Hamilton tried to hurry, but could not get his boot into his binding. The guide at the rear of the group waited with him. Finally, they heard it click into place and moved up the trail.

Advertisement

Tuesday: Minutes before avalanche

Advertisement

A Scream, and Then Silence

At about that moment, the wind-piled mass of snow on the north side of Perry’s Peak failed. Untold tons rushed down like a tsunami, picking up speed as it tumbled the equivalent of 40 stories.

Advertisement

What triggered the avalanche may never be determined. The careful investigation that might provide answers, experts say, would be difficult because the storm and efforts by rescuers to stop further avalanches likely covered signs in the snow that could have provided clues. But the impact was immediately clear.

Directly in the path of the avalanche, the other 13 skiers were climbing a gentle slope through a clearing. Nearly all of them were bunched up behind the lead guides who were breaking trail. Mr. Auzans was last in line.

Advertisement

The skiers were not spread out to cross avalanche terrain. The clearing did not pose an obvious danger. The slope was only about 20 degrees — not steep enough for snow to slide. It remains unknown if, in the blowing snow, the guides realized that a steep slope towered just above them to the left.

“Avalanche!” was all Mr. Auzans heard.

By the time he looked up, the rest of the group had already been swallowed. The snow pushed him over and dragged him down. As he was being buried, the survival stories he loved to read flashed in his mind and he put his hands over his face to try to make an air pocket.

Advertisement

Everything went black. He was packed too tightly to move. He knew from his training that he had to get out soon or he would likely die.

If people buried in an avalanche are rescued within 20 minutes, accident data shows, 90 percent live. But in the next 15 minutes, carbon dioxide from their own breathing builds up in the snow, the heat of their breath can form an ice shield that blocks all air, and the survival rate drops to 30 percent. It then drops steadily as time goes on.

Advertisement

Trapped in the snow, Mr. Auzan thought about his 3-year-old son and never seeing him again. He said a rage built up inside him and gave him the strength to push his hands free. Suddenly, he was looking at daylight.

He struggled to make the hole bigger, broke through and sat up. He was expecting to see a commotion of rescue activity. There was only silence.

“This is bad,” he thought.

Advertisement

Moments later, Mr. Hamilton and the guide that was at the rear came through the trees.

“We have people buried!” Mr. Auzans shouted. He pointed to the last spot he had seen anyone.

Advertisement

The guide pulled his avalanche beacon from his jacket, unfolded his probe and hurried toward the signal.

Mr. Auzans was stuck — his boots were still attached to his skis, which were buried in the snow. He dug to work himself free.

Mr. Hamilton spotted a ski pole sticking up from the debris. It started to wave. He skied over and saw an arm of the third male client. He had made an airway with one arm, and was able to talk through the hole.

Advertisement

Don’t worry about me, I’m OK, Mr. Hamilton remembers him saying. Go look for other people.

Minutes were ticking by. Mr. Auzans dug himself out, grabbed his shovel and went to help the guide whose probe had found a skier about four feet under the snow.

Advertisement

The digging was hard. The slide had compacted the snow into something less like powder and more like cement. It took a number of minutes to get down to the skier.

They uncovered the face of a woman. As they brushed away the snow they kept asking if she was OK. She only moaned, but that meant she was breathing. The guide and Mr. Auzans immediately moved to try to find more skiers, leaving all but the area around the woman’s face still buried.

A few feet away the probe found a second skier. They dug steadily, hacking at the hard snow. As they dug, Mr. Hamilton went back to the other male client and began to dig him out, hoping he could help with the rescue.

Advertisement

About four feet down, the guide and Mr. Auzans found a second woman. Brushing the snow from her face, they saw her eyes blink. She moaned. Breathing. They told her they needed to go look for more survivors.

Somewhere in the blur of digging, Mr. Auzans called 911. It was 11:30 a.m. He reported a slide with multiple people buried. Rescuers immediately went into action.

Advertisement

At least 30 minutes had passed since the slide, Mr. Auzans estimated. Time was running out.

While shoveling to the second woman, they had encountered someone’s leg and another person’s backpack. The group seemed to all be buried close together.

Within minutes they had uncovered the head of a third skier. It was one of the male guides. But when they tried to revive him, they got no response.

Advertisement

Without stopping, they dug down to a fourth skier. A woman. She, too, appeared lifeless.

‘We Had to Save the People We Knew Were Alive’

Advertisement

Now the men above the snow faced a bleak decision.

It was about noon. About an hour had passed since the slide. There were seven people still unaccounted for, but the chances of finding them alive seemed slim.

The storm was still hitting with savage force. Another avalanche could hit at any moment. The two women who were alive were still mostly buried. They seemed to drift in and out of consciousness as snow blew in on their faces.

Advertisement

The men knew if they did not rescue the women and move to safety that they all might die. They made the decision to stop the search.

“We were all in danger. We did as much as we could. We pushed until we started finding people that were deceased. Making the decision to stop the search was one of the hardest things I’ve ever had to do,” Mr. Auzans said afterward. “What are our priorities? We had to save the people we knew were alive.”

Advertisement

The group turned their efforts to freeing the women. When they pulled the first one up to the surface, she slumped over and mumbled that she just needed to sleep. Mr. Auzans got her standing, but found that she could barely walk.

The guide pulled the second woman out, and she started to cough up blood.

They knew they had to move out of the avalanche path. They led the women into the woods, leaving the clearing and the people buried there.

Advertisement

The decision has weighed on both men in the days since.

“I honestly tried my best. I tried my best,” Mr. Auzans said in an interview from his home on Monday, less than a week after the avalanche. “I was buried. I helped to save three people.”

Advertisement

He said he wished they could have saved them all, adding, “My heart goes out to all the families of the deceased.”

Advertisement

Tuesday: Waiting for rescue

At about 12:30 p.m., Mr. Auzans texted 911 that they were moving to safety. The guide dug a snow pit, then laid a tarp over the top to make a crude shelter and put the women inside in sleeping bags. They began a long wait.

Rescuers knew where the group was, but with the storm, a helicopter was not an option. Snowmobiles and snowcats could not reach them. The group thought there was a good chance they would have to spend the night.

Advertisement

They put their water in their jackets to keep it from freezing. They built a larger snow pit where everyone could stay warm.

Advertisement

After the avalanche, the group made a shelter for the two women who survived. Jim Hamilton

For hours they waited in the storm. Some kept their emotions at bay by keeping busy, others broke down, overwhelmed by the enormous loss and the thought of the devastation ahead for the many loved ones of the dead.

At about 5:30 p.m., just as it was getting dark, about a dozen rescuers arrived on skis.

Advertisement

With avalanche conditions still high and daylight fading, the rescuers decided the priority was to get the survivors out.

The only way was on skis. The women had regained enough strength to move on their own. The rescuers found skis for them in the pile of debris.

Advertisement

In the dark, using headlamps, the rescuers led the five survivors back over to the ridge on Perry’s Peak, and down to the huts, where snowcats and an army of other rescuers were waiting.

Left behind on the dark mountain were the six friends who traveled together: Carrie Atkin, Liz Clabaugh, Danielle Keatley, Kate Morse, Caroline Sekar and Kate Vitt. And the three veteran guides: Andrew Alissandratos, Nicole Choo and Michael Henry.

It would be days before the storm relented and rescuers could return to retrieve them.

Advertisement

A view from the shelter to the avalanche area, which was behind the trees. Jim Hamilton

Advertisement
Advertisement

Methodology

The positions of the skiers and the extent of the avalanche path are approximate based on survivor accounts, an avalanche report from the Sierra Avalanche Center and avalanche experts. New York Times journalists built the 3-D model of the area using a 2021-2022 laser scan from the United States Geological Survey.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Anthropic CEO says he’s sticking to AI “red lines” despite clash with Pentagon

Published

on

Anthropic CEO says he’s sticking to AI “red lines” despite clash with Pentagon

Hours after a bitter feud between the Pentagon and Anthropic ended with the Trump administration cutting off the artificial intelligence startup, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told CBS News in an exclusive interview Friday night he wants to work with the military — but only if it addresses the firm’s concerns.

“We are still interested in working with them as long as it is in line with our red lines,” he said.

The conflict centers on Anthropic’s push for guardrails that explicitly prevent the military from using its powerful Claude AI model to conduct mass surveillance on Americans or to power autonomous weapons. The Pentagon wants the ability to use Claude for “all lawful purposes,” and says it isn’t interested in either of the uses that Anthropic was concerned about.

The military gave Anthropic a Friday evening deadline to either meet its demands or get cut off from its lucrative Defense Department contracts. With the two sides still seemingly still far apart, President Trump on Friday ordered federal agencies to “immediately” stop using Anthropic’s technology. Then, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared the company a “supply chain risk,” directing military contractors to also stop working with the AI startup.

In his interview later Friday, Amodei stood by the guardrails sought by Anthropic, which is the only company whose AI model is deployed on the Pentagon’s classified networks.

Advertisement

“Our position is clear. We have these two red lines. We’ve had them from day one. We are still advocating for those red lines. We’re not going to move on those red lines,” Amodei later said. “If we can get to the point with the department where we can see things the same way, then perhaps there could be an agreement. For our part and for the sake of U.S. national security, we continue to want to make this work.”

Amodei told CBS News that Anthropic has sought to deploy its AI models for military use because “we are patriotic Americans” and “we believe in this country.” But the company is worried that some potential uses of AI could clash with American values, he said.

Mass surveillance is a risk, Amodei argued, because “things may become possible with AI that weren’t possible before,” and the technology’s potential is “getting ahead of the law.” He warned that the government could buy data from private firms and use AI to analyze it.

In theory, artificial intelligence could also be used to power fully autonomous weapons that select targets and carry out strikes without any human input. Amodei said his company isn’t categorically opposed to those kinds of weapons, especially if U.S. adversaries develop them, but “the reliability is not there yet” and “we need to have a conversation about oversight.”


The Free Press: Will AI Doom Us All? The Market Can’t Decide

Advertisement

Since AI technology is still unpredictable, Amodei is concerned that autonomous weapons could target the wrong people by mistake. And unlike with human-powered weaponry, it’s not clear who is responsible for the decisions made by fully autonomous weapons.

“We don’t want to sell something that we don’t think is reliable, and we don’t want to sell something that could get our own people killed or that could get innocent people killed,” he said.

Amodei called the guardrails around surveillance and autonomous weapons “narrow exceptions,” and said the company has no evidence that the military has run into either of them.

The Pentagon’s position is that federal law already prevents it from surveilling Americans en masse, and fully autonomous weapons are already restricted by internal military policies, so there is no need to put restrictions on those uses of AI in writing.

Emil Michael, the Pentagon’s chief technology officer, told CBS News in an interview Thursday: “At some level, you have to trust your military to do the right thing.”

Advertisement

“But we do have to be prepared for the future. We do have to be prepared for what China is doing,” Michael said, referring to how U.S. adversaries use AI. “So we’ll never say that we’re not going to be able to defend ourselves in writing to a company.” 

As a compromise, Michael said the military had offered written acknowledgements of the federal laws and military policies that restrict mass surveillance and autonomous weapons — though Anthropic said that offer was “paired with legalese” that allowed the guardrails to be ignored.

As the conflict between Anthropic and the Pentagon escalated this week, top military officials accused the company and Amodei of trying to impose their values onto the government. Hegseth called Anthropic “sanctimonious” and arrogant, Michael said that Amodei has a “God-complex” and Mr. Trump called the AI startup a “radical left, woke company.”

“Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military. That is unacceptable,” Hegseth alleged.

Said Mr. Trump: “Their selfishness is putting AMERICAN LIVES at risk, our Troops in danger, and our National Security in JEOPARDY.”

Advertisement

Asked if weighty questions about AI guardrails should be left up to Anthropic rather than the government, Amodei told CBS News that “one of the things about a free market and free enterprise is, different folks can provide different products under different principles.”

He also said: “I think we are a good judge of what our models can do reliably and what they cannot do reliably.”

In the long run, he said, Congress should probably weigh in on AI safeguards.

“But Congress is not the fastest moving body in the world. And for right now, we are the ones who see this technology on the front line,” said Amodei.

With Anthropic and the Pentagon unable to reach a deal by Friday, the military is now expected to phase out its use of Anthropic’s AI technology within six months and transition to what Hegseth called “a better and more patriotic service.”

Advertisement

Hegseth also labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk” and said all companies that do business with the military are now expected to cut off “any commercial activity with Anthropic.” 

Amodei called that an “unprecedented” move for an American firm rather than a foreign adversary, and he said the government’s statements have been “retaliatory and punitive.” And he argued that Hegseth doesn’t have the legal authority to bar all military contractors from working with Anthropic, and can only stop them from using Anthropic for government contracts.

He also said that Anthropic hasn’t formally received any information from the Pentagon informing it of a supply chain risk designation, but “when we receive some kind of formal action, we will look at it, we will understand it and we will challenge it in court.”

Asked if he has a message for the president, Amodei said “everything we have done has been for the sake of this country” and “for the sake of supporting U.S. national security.”

“Disagreeing with the government is the most American thing in the world,” he said. “And we are patriots. In everything we have done here, we have stood up for the values of this country.”

Advertisement

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending