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Race and power collide in a fight over sacred rock art in remote Australia | CNN

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Race and power collide in a fight over sacred rock art in remote Australia | CNN



CNN
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Close to a dry, crimson rock peninsula on Australia’s far western coast, a dusty freeway separates two communities with contrasting fortunes tied to an historical land.

One is dwelling to the small however booming metropolis of Karratha, a regional hub scattered with four-wheel drives that was purpose-built within the Nineteen Sixties to accommodate a rising military of miners seeking to extract the land’s huge shops of iron ore, oil and gasoline.

The opposite is Roebourne, a former gold rush city half-hour up the freeway, the place the peninsula’s Indigenous inhabitants settled after being pushed from their lands by colonialists within the mid-1800s.

For years, information stories painted Roebourne as a “misfit city the place everybody drinks, smokes and may’t maintain their youngsters,” says Josie Alec, a proud descendent of the Kuruma-Marthudunera individuals, who raised her 4 youngsters there.

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In actuality, she says it’s a deeply resilient neighborhood made up of households like her personal, whose ancestors have watched over “Murujuga” – the peninsula’s Aboriginal title – for generations, whereas holding its vibrant cultural traditions alive.

For Australia’s First Nations individuals, Murujuga is the birthplace of songs and creation tales explaining the legal guidelines of nature, advised by way of greater than 1,000,000 rock carvings scattered throughout its deserts and close by islands.

These irreplaceable petroglyphs are 10 instances older than the pyramids of Egypt and depict early human civilization, however a few of their ancestral guardians worry they could possibly be destroyed by air pollution from considered one of Australia’s largest new fossil gasoline developments.

The corporate behind the mission, Woodside Power, plans to extract tens of millions of tons of gasoline from the Scarborough discipline within the Indian Ocean largely for export to north Asia.

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Not solely is there widespread concern concerning the sky excessive greenhouse gasoline emissions the mission is anticipated to generate over its lifetime, however there are additionally fears that industrial air pollution from its processing vegetation might erode Murujuga’s petroglyphs, which present now-extinct animals and plant species, in addition to a few of the earliest identified depictions of the human face.

Woodside argues the impacts of its growth have been “totally assessed” by environmental regulators and says it helps a program by the Murujuga Aboriginal Company (MAC) and the state authorities to evaluate dangers to the rock artwork, which is because of file its first report subsequent 12 months.

MAC is the legally appointed Aboriginal physique tasked with advising authorities and corporations on the cultural implications of growth on the peninsula.

Whereas MAC doesn’t obtain mining royalties, critics argue its potential to object to Woodside’s plans is proscribed by longstanding agreements, and its reliance on trade for funding has created frustration and resentment amongst different members of the neighborhood who say it’s not doing sufficient to guard ancestral treasures.

Murujuga is a part of Australia’s Pilbara area, a thinly populated space twice the scale of the UK identified for its historical landscapes, dry crimson deserts, and huge mineral assets.

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To White settlers it’s at all times been mining nation.

The promise of gold and pearl introduced colonists to the Pilbara within the Eighteen Eighties, however in the present day firms are extra all in favour of its shops of iron ore, oil and gasoline.

Assets extracted from the area have powered Australia’s economic system and helped create a few of the world’s largest mining and vitality multinationals. However a relatively small slice of the general proceeds has filtered again to First Nations individuals, a lot of whom say their land has been exploited and sacred websites destroyed.

And it retains taking place.

Final month federal atmosphere minister Tanya Plibersek stated she wouldn’t intervene to cease plans by Perth-based multinational group Perdaman to construct a brand new fertilizer plant on the peninsula – a growth requiring some sacred rocks to be relocated.

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“This concept that Perdaman goes to immediately be constructed on that panorama is simply unbelievable, completely unbelievable,” stated Benjamin Smith, a professor of World Rock Artwork on the College of Western Australia, who has spent years finding out Murujuga’s petroglyphs.

In a June paper, co-authored with different eminent rock consultants, Smith discovered that industrial pollution from different growth on the peninsula – specifically nitrogen oxides – are already eroding the outer layer of Murujuga’s petroglyphs, inflicting the carvings to slowly disappear.

The paper attracts on different printed research that “agree that the wealthy red-brown patina of Murujuga’s rocks, as with different types of rock varnish, is dissolved with rising acidity.” Smith says acid ranges improve when sulphur and nitrogen oxides emitted from the commercial vegetation on Murujuga combine with moisture.

Smith’s findings contradict earlier analysis – partly funded by trade – that claimed there was “no adversarial impression to the rock engravings from industrial air pollution,” which Woodside makes use of to again its declare that its gasoline plant actions aren’t harming the petroglyphs.

In a press release to CNN, Woodside stated: “Peer-reviewed analysis has not demonstrated any impacts on Burrup (Murujuga) rock artwork from emissions related to Woodside’s operations.”

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Smith and different consultants have lengthy argued that the uncooked information used to help these findings is flawed.

In June, the Western Australian Setting Safety Company (EPA) pointed to an absence of consensus on the problem and stated it “considers that there could also be a risk of significant or irreversible injury to rock artwork from industrial air emissions,” of which “essentially the most important sources” are Woodside’s present gasoline vegetation.

Final week, the federal authorities responded to requests to assign an unbiased advisor to hold out a full cultural heritage evaluation of all trade on Murujuga, with their findings to be reported to the atmosphere minister – who will then resolve if the positioning is worthy of an official order to guard it.

The unbiased assessment was the results of intense lobbying by Alec and Marthudunera girl Raelene Cooper, two conventional custodians, who traveled to Geneva in July to inform the United Nations that the potential destruction of Murujuga’s rocks would quantity to “cultural genocide.”

Josie Alec is the co-founder of Save Our Songlines, a campaign group dedicated to protecting Murujuga.

The 2 girls began visiting the countryside round Murujuga as youngsters within the Nineteen Seventies and 80s – across the identical time Woodside arrived on the peninsula to start building on its sprawling Karratha gasoline advanced.

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For Cooper, that meant floating down the Fortescue River on scorching days, whereas watching the native moms wash their garments and put together meals.

“I’d swim within the river, have a feed out bush (eat outdoor). We knew trade was there, however we didn’t see it … again then even the iron ore mines have been out of sight,” she stated.

Like lots of younger First Nations individuals dwelling throughout the Pilbara, Cooper finally discovered herself working within the mines. For 3 years, she operated heavy equipment for Rio Tinto, however stop after questioning the injury it was doing to nation.

“I spotted my job was to guard Murujuga, not dig it up. The economic system right here shouldn’t simply be about breaking apart the earth and sucking all the things out of it.”

In 2016, Cooper was elected as considered one of MAC’s board members, a job she proudly occupied for greater than 5 years till February, when she resigned over the company’s help of Woodside’s Scarborough growth.

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“I felt the elders have been being manipulated and had no understanding of the dangers the mission posed. It broke my coronary heart to go away, however I couldn’t help MAC approving the elimination of our historical past,” she advised CNN.

For Alec, defending Murujuga is a part of a journey to heal the bonds severed together with her ancestors when she was forcibly faraway from her mom as a child and positioned in foster care below a authorities coverage from 1910 to the Nineteen Seventies to “assimilate” First Nations youngsters. The coverage created what’s often called the Stolen Era, who carry the trauma of separation from their individuals. On the time, the federal government claimed it was for their very own good.

“Rising up as an Aboriginal woman in a White world was robust, however I had a extremely good foster mother and pop and a robust household,” Alec advised CNN.

Alec’s adoptive mother and father finally introduced her again to Murujuga to fulfill her beginning mom and find out about her ancestors.

By the point she was a youngster, she was making common journeys to Roebourne and its surrounding countryside, and it was there she started discovering the normal therapeutic methods her household was identified for – by studying to learn Murujuga’s rocks.

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“My mother was the shaman of the tribe, everybody got here to her for therapeutic, and finally she handed that right down to me.”

“My household story lies in these rocks … They take me dwelling, in order that’s why I battle so arduous for them,” she advised CNN.

The distinction between excessive wealth and poverty that’s come to outline the Pilbara is obvious within the latest histories of Roebourne and Karratha.

Whereas Karratha reworked from a small useful resource city to a regional metropolis, Roebourne battled poverty, alcoholism and racial violence. Within the Eighties, the city was thrust into the nationwide highlight after a First Nations teenager died in a police cell, frightening fury and an inquiry into Aboriginal deaths in custody.

At this time, the battle for Murujuga’s rock artwork displays long-standing and unresolved problems with race and energy.

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The United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples states that consent from First Nations individuals for tasks on their land must be offered freely, with out coercion or manipulation, and that the self-determination and sustainability of their communities must be on the core of all negotiations.

However in Australia, that’s not often been the case.

Till the early Nineteen Nineties, consultants say little thought was given to Indigenous land rights as a result of idea of “terra nullius,” which held that the continent belonged to nobody earlier than White settlement.

In 1992, Native Title legislation was written to acknowledge Indigenous land rights, but it surely was solely designed to safe First Nations individuals a share of the earnings from exploration or mining actions on their lands, to not cease developments altogether.

Woodside Petroleum's Pluto development on Murujuga, Western Australia, June 2008.

So as to keep away from prolonged authorized battles, Native Title attorneys say governments and large trade have traditionally sought out potential claimants forward of proposed developments – utilizing negotiated agreements to amass their land in alternate for monetary advantages.

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Indigenous activists and Native Title attorneys describe this alleged apply as a “divide and conquer” method which may trigger dangerous blood between households as a result of it pits conventional custodians towards each other.

“Authorities and trade have this distinctive potential to foster division in weak Aboriginal communities,” stated Kado Muir, a Ngalia Conventional Proprietor and Chairman of The Nationwide Native Title Council.

“They create a faction who endorses and indicators off on the agenda a developer brings. Then finally, the neighborhood is torn aside, and the cycle of poverty and dispossession continues.”

In 2003, the Western Australian authorities compulsorily acquired Native Title on Murujuga by way of the Burrup and Maitland Industrial Estates Settlement (BMIEA) – a contract signed by the area’s Ngarluma-Yindjibarndi, Wong-Goo-Tt-Oo, and Yaburara Mardudhunera peoples.

In alternate for surrendering their land rights to the state authorities for the aim of commercial growth, the Aboriginal teams get together to the BMIEA obtained monetary advantages together with the freehold title of the Murujuga Nationwide Park.

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The settlement additionally led to the institution of MAC because the authorized company physique, which shares administration of the park with the state authorities and whose rock monitoring program receives funding from companies that function on the peninsula – Woodside, Rio Tinto and fertilizer firm Yara Pilbara.

MAC’s repute amongst locals is polarizing, with activists like Alec and Cooper brazenly questioning its independence as a result of funding it receives from trade.

Members of the group have spoken publicly concerning the energy imbalance that stems from these monetary ties, together with its CEO Peter Jeffries.

In a June letter to the Division of Agriculture in regards to the Perdaman fertilizer growth, seen by CNN, Jeffries, a senior Ngarluma man, stated the Circle of Elders that advise MAC repeatedly said their desire that the rocks on the web site weren’t moved, earlier than agreeing to the corporate’s proposals to shift a small quantity.

Murujuga Aboriginal Corporation chief executive Peter Jeffries.

Extra broadly, he wrote, “There are severe points that have to be addressed relating to the standard of negotiation between Aboriginal Companies and proponents … the place proponents solely take into account a negotiation to be full upon receiving the reply they need.”

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Jeffries was much less candid when he spoke with CNN about Woodside’s mission, in an interview organized by the managing director of a public relations agency, who requested to sit down in on the decision.

The agency – which additionally gives companies for Woodside’s joint-venture associate BHP and the state authorities’s growth company – advised CNN that MAC was the one “authorized cultural authority” to talk about developments on Murujuga, and that it was essential “the precise info” was being shared concerning the views of conventional custodians in relation to the Scarborough growth.

Within the interview, Jeffries was guarded when requested about MAC’s relationship with Woodside and its reliance on large trade for funding.

“In partnerships, you’ve acquired to take the nice with the dangerous … we’ve to work with trade, they’ve been right here for 30-40 years and so they’ll proceed to be right here, so it’s about how we co-exist,” he stated.

Native leaders are uneasy concerning the affect they are saying Woodside has over MAC, and in March, 27 elders from Murujuga wrote an open letter to the Western Australian authorities, calling for “unbiased” financing for the group, so it might “handle the cultural heritage of Murujuga with out being compromised by counting on Woodside.”

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In a press release to CNN, Woodside stated it had “engaged and consulted extensively with Conventional Homeowners concerning the Scarborough Challenge since 2019” and it was “happy” with the help it had from Murujuga’s custodians.

MAC is below intense stress from all sides – however First Nations activists CNN spoke with say that blaming Aboriginal firms detracts from the actual downside.

Gas flares at a plant on Murujuga in Western Australia on June 17, 2008.

“It’s simple to look in from the skin and say that Conventional Homeowners on the Pilbara are ‘pro-mining,’ but it surely’s a unstable place to talk your reality about what’s going down on nation,” stated Larissa Baldwin, a Widjabul First Nations Justice Marketing campaign Director at GetUp, a not-for-profit that advocates for progressive coverage change in Australia.

“Individuals are afraid of getting their livelihoods threatened in a spot the place there isn’t any different economic system,” stated Baldwin. “It’s the form of energy imbalance that places Indigenous communities in a spot of duress.”

Woodside hopes the primary gasoline piped from the offshore Scarborough discipline will likely be processed and despatched to Asian markets in 2026.

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The corporate’s awaiting closing sign-off from Australia’s offshore regulator however in any other case it has the go-ahead from state and federal legislators.

The brand new Labor authorities led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised greater cuts to emissions than its predecessor however maintains gasoline is a “transition vitality” because the world strikes to renewables.

That stands at odds with the Worldwide Power Company’s evaluation that the world gained’t attain its goal of web zero emissions by 2050 if governments approve new oil and gasoline developments.

Fuel, on the whole, is much less carbon-intensive than coal, but it surely’s nonetheless a planet-warming fossil gasoline, and there’s a rising understanding that its infrastructure leaks enormous quantities of methane – a stronger greenhouse gasoline than carbon dioxide within the shorter time period – undermining the bridge gasoline argument.

Woodside estimates the mission will pump out 967 million tons of carbon emissions over its lifetime. However researchers at Local weather Analytics say that determine will likely be nearer to 1.5 billion tons from 2021 till the mission winds down in 2055 – about the identical quantity of emissions Australia produces each three years.

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Woodside has advised CNN it’s dedicated to utilizing know-how to cut back nitrogen oxide emissions throughout its operations whereas it awaits the outcomes of the rock artwork monitoring program, but it surely additionally confirmed that no new funding had been made into air pollution management measures for its infrastructure since 2008.

Smith says the present physique of science reveals Murujuga’s rocks gained’t survive the approaching a long time if the Scarborough mission goes forward – as a result of sheer scale of its projected emissions.

“It’s an apparent no-brainer … there must be no new developments on Murujuga,” Smith stated. “The world is popping towards individuals like Woodside that make huge earnings on the expense of the planet and the expense of our heritage.”

An emissions monitoring station on Murujuga, June 2008.

Smith additionally expressed concern concerning the transparency of the rock artwork monitoring program as a result of absence of unbiased oversight and an absence of entry to its uncooked information.

“In the mean time, we don’t have entry to any of the info that has been produced. It has ‘confidentiality’ written throughout it. It shouldn’t,” he stated.

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“I can not see any cause for secrecy of any type of one thing that’s of such public curiosity.”

A spokesperson for the state Division of Water and Environmental Regulation (DWER) stated the uncooked information will likely be peer-reviewed by a panel of scientists chosen by the federal government in mid-2023 after the primary full 12 months of monitoring. The uncooked information is not going to be printed, the spokesperson confirmed.

In a rustic that’s constructed its fortunes on mining and stands to make billions of {dollars} in gasoline exports in coming a long time, few political avenues exist to cease Woodside’s growth.

There’s no statutory timeframe for the unbiased assessor’s report into growth on Murujuga, and within the meantime Perdaman and Woodside are pushing forward with their tasks.

Alec and Cooper have welcomed the additional scrutiny, however they are saying the federal government’s refusal to grant an earlier request to halt the Perdaman plant “reveals the hypocrisy on the coronary heart of all session between conventional custodians and trade.”

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Perdaman declined CNN’s requests for remark.

Alec and Cooper say they gained’t again down till they’re satisfied Murujuga will likely be protected.

“The rocks are historical beings,” Alec stated. “My job as a custodian is to share our tales and unfold consciousness in a manner that makes individuals really feel and perceive the ability of this place.”

“It’s a really private battle,” Cooper added. “Nevertheless it’s a battle for all of our individuals and for Australia.”

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Russia aims to be global leader in nuclear power plant construction

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Russia aims to be global leader in nuclear power plant construction

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Russia is building more than 10 nuclear units abroad as it looks to tap into rising energy demand driven by artificial intelligence and developing markets, according to an envoy of President Vladimir Putin.

Moscow is doubling down on efforts to boost its global influence by expanding its nuclear fleet, with plants under construction in countries including Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran and Turkey. Russia has enhanced its role as a major nuclear energy provider even as the oil and gas sector has faced heavy sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine.

Boris Titov, the Kremlin’s special representative for international co-operation in sustainability, said the country wanted to cement its position as “one of the biggest builders of new nuclear plants in the world”. 

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He said Russia expected strong demand for nuclear power from developing countries eager for cleaner sources of energy, as well as from technology companies harnessing AI in data centres. The International Atomic Energy Agency forecast this year that world nuclear generating capacity would increase by 155 per cent to 950 gigawatts by 2050.

“We are building more than 10 different units around the world,” Titov told the Financial Times. “We need a lot of energy. We will not be able to provide this energy without using . . . nuclear. We know that it’s safe . . . it’s not emitting [greenhouse gas emissions], so it is very clean.”

Boris Titov, the Kremlin’s special representative for international co-operation in sustainability © Maksim Konstantinov/SOPA/LightRocket/Getty Images

Russia’s growing overseas nuclear portfolio, including reactor construction, fuel provision and other services, spans 54 countries, according to an article published last year in the journal Nature Energy by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. 

Titov pointed to Hungary’s Paks 2 plant as well as units in Bangladesh and Turkey. Russia is also expected to build a plant with small modular reactors in Uzbekistan, while it signed an agreement with Burkina Faso’s ruling junta in 2023. The FT reported this year that Russia was involved in more than a third of new reactors being built worldwide.

Western governments have attempted to push back against Russia’s nuclear prominence, with the US banning imports of Russian-enriched uranium this May. 

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With the exception of Hungary, most eastern European countries have signed contracts for fuel developed to fit Soviet-era reactors by US company Westinghouse since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

As part of a wider push to meet an indicative target of being free from Russian fuel imports by 2027, Dan Jørgensen, the new EU commissioner for energy, said that he wanted to examine the “full nuclear supply chain”. 

But Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán and Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico have said they would block any steps to restrict Russia’s civilian nuclear energy industry.

After meeting Putin on Sunday, Fico said in a post on Facebook that potential sanctions against Russia would be “financially damaging and endanger the production of electricity in nuclear power plants in Slovakia, which is unacceptable”.

But fears that Russia could create critical nuclear fuel shortages for the bloc, as it did for gas in 2022, are overstated, one senior EU official said.

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“Rosatom has a vested interest to be reliable,” they added.

A more immediate problem is US sanctions on Gazprombank, a major conduit for energy payments to Russia. The measures exempted civil nuclear energy except for Hungary’s Paks 2 plant. Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó has called the singling out of the new plant an “entirely political decision”.

Many developing countries are looking at nuclear to meet clean energy requirements, offering more potential markets for Russia.

Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Malaysia’s natural resources and environmental sustainability minister, told the Financial Times that the country was “studying the introduction of nuclear”. 

He said all the “major players” were “talking to the [Malaysian] government” on potential projects, without referring to specific countries.

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Speaking at the UN COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in November, Jake Levine, senior climate and energy director at the US National Security Council, said Washington was concerned about countries turning to China or Russia for nuclear power.

Global competitiveness in the industry was a “huge issue”, he added.

Additional reporting by Anastasia Stognei, Polina Ivanova and Raphael Minder

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Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore the FT’s coverage here.

Are you curious about the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Find out more about our science-based targets here

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Why Trump's tariffs on Mexico would mean higher avocado prices at the grocery store

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Why Trump's tariffs on Mexico would mean higher avocado prices at the grocery store

Avocados grow on trees in an orchard in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023. Tariffs on Mexican imports would have a big effect on avocados in the U.S.

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Of all the products that would be affected by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico, avocados stand out: 90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported. And almost all of those imports come from Mexico.

Trump has said he plans to impose a blanket tariff of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tax on goods from China.

It’s unclear whether the tariffs will be implemented or if they will serve merely as a negotiating tactic.

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If enacted, they could have multiple effects on the avocado industry.

“Broad tariffs, like what’s being proposed, is not something that we’ve seen” before, says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. “We had the trade war with China back in 2018 that affected steel and aluminum, but when it comes to food, these types of policy proposals are not something that are very common or that we’ve seen recently.”

With one of the biggest guacamole-eating events of the year — the Super Bowl — approaching in February, here’s what to know about avocados, tariffs, and why so many avocados are grown in Mexico.

Prices will rise

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports.

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports.

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First, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico would lead to higher avocado prices at the grocery store.

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But estimating just how much higher is hard to say. It’s possible that producers and importers will absorb some of the costs to keep prices down and stay more competitive.

Ortega says there could be “pretty significant increases in the price of avocados. Maybe not the full 25%, but pretty close, given that there’s very little substitute ability with regards to where we would source avocados.”

But he cautions that because the tariffs apply only to the product’s value at the border, and not to other costs like transportation and distribution within the U.S., prices may not go up by the full 25%.

Regardless of these potential price increases, however, people in the U.S. love their avocados and they’re willing to pay more. Avocado consumption tripled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2021.

“Given that avocado is a staple of our consumption here, I would say that the elasticity is not very high, meaning that even with a big increase in price, consumption is not going to change that much,” says Luis Ribera, a professor and extension economist in the agricultural economics department at Texas A&M University.

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Why Mexico

A farmer works at an avocado plantation at the Los Cerritos avocado group ranch in Ciudad Guzman, state of Jalisco, Mexico, on Feb. 10, 2023. Mexico provides 90% of the avocados consumed in the U.S.

A farmer works at an avocado plantation at the Los Cerritos avocado group ranch in Ciudad Guzman, state of Jalisco, Mexico, on Feb. 10, 2023. Most of the avocados consumed in the U.S. are grown in Mexico.

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Mexico is the biggest producer of avocados in the world and exported $3.3 billion worth of avocados in 2023. A study funded by the industry estimated that avocado production supports 78,000 permanent jobs and 310,000 seasonal jobs in Mexico.

“It’s a very important business in Mexico, very lucrative,” Ribera says.

Mexico emerged as the largest foreign supplier of fruits and vegetables to the U.S. for a few reasons, he says. One: Its proximity to the U.S. market. With a perishable product, closer is better. Peru is the second-largest source of foreign avocados in the U.S., but its greater distance means avocados need to be shipped farther.

The other reasons for Mexico are favorable weather that allows for year-round production of avocados and access to cheap labor, according to Ribera.

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Avocados are grown in the U.S. too, mostly in California and to a lesser extent Florida and Hawaii, but U.S. growers can’t meet Americans’ big appetite. Avocado production in the U.S. has declined, even as Americans grew fonder of the green fruit, according to the USDA.

California avocado growers have faced droughts and wildfires in recent years, making it difficult to offer the year-round availability that American consumers crave, Ortega says. In addition, land is expensive and water is limited.

If the goal of implementing tariffs is to force avocado production to move somewhere besides Mexico, that isn’t easy.

It takes about eight years for avocado trees to produce fruit, according to the USDA. “This is not a product that you can just simply plant more of this season and you get more of in a few months,” Ortega says.

Other countries where the U.S. sources avocados — Peru, the Dominican Republic and Chile — “just simply don’t have the production capacity to replace Mexico’s supply,” he says.

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Tariffs could impact the organic avocado market

Tariffs could also alter the market dynamic when it comes to organic vs. conventional foods.

If prices rise across the board, consumers who typically buy organic avocados might switch to conventional ones to save money. Organic produce makes up about 15% of total fruit and vegetable sales in the U.S., according to the Organic Trade Association, which represents hundreds of organic businesses and thousands of farmers.

“My hypothesis is that the price of conventional products would increase more than the premium organic product,” Ortega says. He reasons that because people who are used to buying organic avocados would move to buy conventional ones, “that in turn increases the demand and would make prices rise more for that category.”

Matthew Dillon, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association, says those in the organic food industry are looking at diversifying their supply chains away from Mexico, but there’s a three-year transition period required for farmers to switch from producing conventional to organic produce.

“Supply chains are not incredibly elastic in organic. It takes more time to pivot and change when there’s a supply chain disruption. And tariffs are in some ways a form of supply chain disruption for a company, because it creates unpredictable pricing,” he says.

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Together with grocery prices that have gone up more than 26% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump’s plans for tariffs on Mexico, along with mass deportations, could create “a perfect storm of high inflationary pressure on the organic sector,” Dillon says.

Furthermore, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico could have their own impacts.

Avocado producers face uncertainty as Trump’s return looms

Avocados in boxes are pictured at a packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023.

Avocados in boxes are pictured at a packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023.

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Aside from the threat of tariffs, the avocado industry has other challenges to deal with: climate change presents several problems, and avocados require a large amount of water to grow. Meanwhile, environmentalists say some avocado growers are cutting down forests to plant avocados.

Producers also face extortion from criminal gangs in Mexico.

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And now with Trump’s tariff threats, producers are left to wonder about their next steps.

“Producers, they react to market fundamentals,” Ribera says. For example, people can foresee how bad weather in Mexico would affect avocado prices. Producers and retailers will adjust to higher and lower demand.

“The issue with a tariff is it’s not a market fundamental — it’s a policy. It’s a political move,” he says. “It could happen or it could not happen, or it could be increased or it could be decreased, you know. So it’s hard for the whole supply chain to adjust.”

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Live news: SingPost shares slump after CEO fired over handling of whistleblower report

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Live news: SingPost shares slump after CEO fired over handling of whistleblower report

While the holiday spirit will dominate the news agenda, there are notable developments to watch across the world, as the three defining themes of 2024 — elections, war and inflation — continue to hum in the background.

On Tuesday, Moldova’s pro-EU president-elect Maia Sandu will attend her inauguration. Her narrow election victory in October, despite alleged Russian meddling in the process, will set the former Soviet country on a path to EU membership.

Maia Sandu © Dumitru Doru/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Georgia, on the other hand, will on Sunday swear in Mikheil Kavelashvili to the presidency, a pro-Russian firebrand and Croatia will hold a first-round presidential vote on Sunday.

On Monday, Mozambique’s top court is set to give a verdict on the country’s disputed election in October, while Albanian opposition parties block roads demanding Prime Minister Edi Rama’s resignation

Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech on Christmas Day. Economists will pore over his words for clues on how president-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs will affect the pace and trajectory of monetary policy.

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UK third-quarter GDP figures will be out on Monday, after months of disappointing economic releases for chancellor Rachel Reeves.

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