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Opinion: The lucky stroke that helped investigators solve the Lockerbie bombing | CNN

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Opinion: The lucky stroke that helped investigators solve the Lockerbie bombing | CNN

Editor’s Observe: Peter Bergen is CNN’s nationwide safety analyst, a vice chairman at New America and a professor of apply at Arizona State College. Bergen is the creator of “The Price of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” The views expressed on this commentary are his personal. View extra opinion on CNN.



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Simply days earlier than Christmas in 1988, Pan Am Flight 103 flying from London to New York blew up over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing 270 folks – together with 190 People. Thirty-five victims have been Syracuse College college students going house for the vacations after learning overseas. It was essentially the most deadly terrorist assault in opposition to American civilians till the September 11 assaults of 2001.

On Sunday, the US Division of Justice introduced it had taken custody of a Libyan man, Abu Agila Mohammad Mas’ud Kheir Al-Marimi, who’s alleged to have been concerned in making the bomb that blew up the passenger jet. The DOJ described him as a former senior intelligence officer within the regime of Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

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Al-Marimi hasn’t entered a plea within the case. One other Libyan intelligence officer working for Gadhafi, Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, was convicted in 2001 of the bombing of Pan Am 103. Megrahi died in 2012.

Virtually three and a half many years have handed since Pan Am 103 was introduced down, and lots of could also be questioning why Gadhafi and his intelligence officers carried out this bombing and why they thought they could get away with it.

The context for the bombing of Pan Am 103 was that the administration of former President Ronald Reagan and Gadhafi have been at conflict – not a declared typical conflict, however a conflict nonetheless – fought with terrorist bombs by the Libyans and with airstrikes by the Reagan administration.

Gadhafi was a Soviet navy shopper who espoused an obscure revolutionary philosophy, which made him anathema to the Reagan administration.

Early in his first time period in Might 1981, Reagan ordered the closure of the Libyan embassy in Washington, DC, and the expulsion of Libyan diplomats in america due to “Libyan provocations and misconduct, together with assist for worldwide terrorism.”

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On April 5, 1986, a bomb went off within the La Belle discotheque in Berlin that off-duty US servicemen frequented. The bombing killed two US troopers and a Turkish girl, and injured greater than 200 others.

The Reagan administration shortly decided that Libyan intelligence brokers more than likely carried out the assault. In response, Reagan ordered the bombing of a number of targets in Libya, telling the American folks in an handle from the Oval Workplace on April 14, 1986, “At 7 this night Japanese time, air and naval forces of america launched a sequence of strikes in opposition to the headquarters, terrorist amenities and navy belongings that assist Moammar Gadhafi’s subversive actions.”

Gadhafi claimed that his toddler daughter was killed in these strikes (though, lately, this declare about his daughter has been questioned). Different Gadhafi relations have been reported to have been wounded within the strikes, one in every of which hit one of many dictator’s residences.

It took greater than two years for Gadhafi to actual his revenge on the US. Throughout that point, Libyan intelligence brokers assembled a complicated bomb secreted in a radio cassette participant.

The bomb labored on a timer and was hidden in a suitcase. Within the days earlier than rigorous airport safety, the bomb-filled suitcase was positioned by a Libyan agent on a flight from Malta to Frankfurt, and the suitcase was then “routed to a feeder flight in Frankfurt sure for London’s Heathrow Airport, the place it was finally loaded onto the doomed jet,” in line with the FBI.

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The terrorist plot labored, sadly, very nicely for the Libyans however for one essential element: The bomb was on a timer, and when it blew up, Pan Am 103 was nonetheless flying over land relatively than over the Atlantic. If the aircraft had blown up barely later the jet would have been flying over the ocean, which might have made a forensic investigation of the crash website almost unattainable.

As an alternative, Scottish authorities painstakingly reassembled each piece of the aircraft and its contents that they may get well on their soil. That led investigators to the suitcase that had contained the bomb and, in an astonishing piece of detective work, finally led them to the Libyan intelligence brokers that had overseen the bombing.

On Sunday, the US Division of Justice introduced that Al-Marimi, the alleged bomb maker, was now in American custody. He’ll make an preliminary look at a courtroom in Washington, DC, virtually precisely 34 years after Pan Am 103 blew up over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all on board and eleven others on the bottom.

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US retailers stretch out Black Friday deals to lure flagging shoppers

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US retailers stretch out Black Friday deals to lure flagging shoppers

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US retailers are extending their one-day seasonal Black Friday discount offers into a sales event lasting weeks in a bid to tempt US consumers to keep spending, as data suggests that their spree which has driven economic growth is beginning to falter.

Walmart, Amazon, Target and Macy’s are among the US retailers already offering deep discounts under the banner of Black Friday, long before it actually arrives this week.

Despite this, general merchandise unit sales were down 3 per cent year-on-year in the week ending 16 November according to data from Circana, which compiles retail point-of-sale data.

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The National Retail Federation forecasts that winter holiday sales will reach almost $1tn in the US in November and December, a record $902 a head. But the rate of spending growth is expected to be about 2.5-3.5 per cent, the slowest since 2018.

“We’re seeing this drag-out of incentives to try to widen the window within which [retailers] can draw more consumers,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at adviser EY Parthenon. “The likely reality in this holiday season is that we see fairly subdued sales because volumes are growing, but at a moderate pace — and [retailers have] much less pricing power.”

Retailers were “incentivising via discounts and different forms of promotions” for those at the lower end of the income spectrum while also “trying to grab higher-income individuals to make purchases during this wider window”, he said.

Although headline inflation has ebbed from the historic highs of the past couple of years, consumers “remain extremely frustrated by the persistence of high prices”, the University of Michigan said this week in a monthly survey.

Consumer spending has been the main driver of America’s robust economic growth in recent months. But consumer confidence is still well below the long-run average, sentiment surveys show.

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The prospect of a fresh round of tariffs under Donald Trump’s incoming presidency raises the risk that inflation could take off again, economists have warned — posing a fresh drag on sentiment.

“Donald Trump’s return to the White House with a Republican majority [probably leads] to higher inflation, slower GDP growth and increased budget deficits,” Roland Fumasi, food and agribusiness analyst at Rabobank, said in a note.

If Trump increases tariffs, that would “lead to a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth”, he said.

“The negative impact on growth could be mitigated by tax cuts and deregulation by a Republican Congress. However, this would increase the budget deficit and reinforce inflation, especially in combination with reduced immigration,” he added.

Black Friday is one of the busiest times of year for consumer goods stores, and the period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday — the Monday following the holiday, when electronics vendors discount goods — is critical to retailers’ annual revenue.

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NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said that households’ finances were in “good shape”, offering “an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season”, although “households will spend more cautiously”.

Brian Cornell, Target chief executive, told analysts this week that consumers were becoming “increasingly resourceful” in the way that they shopped, “focusing on deals and then stocking up when they find them”.

The store group, which disappointed Wall Street this week by forecasting flat sales in the fourth quarter, ran a three-day “Early Black Friday” promotion in early November. On Thursday it launched a promotion titled “Black Friday deals” which will last to the end of the month, including items such as half-price Christmas trees and headphones.

Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, launched the first of two week-long “Black Friday Deals” events on November 11. The second will begin on Monday, offering markdowns on televisions, iPhones, toys and jeans, among other items.

Amazon’s “Black Friday Week” began on Thursday. Home Depot’s “Black Friday Savings” offer lasts from November 7 to December 4.

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Additional reporting by Will Schmitt in New York and Madeleine Speed in London

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Two killed and one injured as plane crashes in Colorado mountain range

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Two killed and one injured as plane crashes in Colorado mountain range

Two people were killed and one was injured after a Civil Air Patrol plane crashed near Storm Mountain in Colorado.

Authorities responded to a report of a plane crash roughly 80 miles north of Denver shortly after 11 a.m. on Saturday, the Larimer County Sheriff’s Office said.

Emergency crews and deputies found three passengers on board. Two were confirmed dead while the third was transported to a local hospital with severe injuries, the sheriff’s office said.

The plane belonged to the Thompson Valley Composite Squadron of the Civil Air Patrol, a civilian auxiliary of the US Air Force. The plane, which the National Transportation Safety Board identified as a Cessna 182, was conducting a routine aerial photography training mission when the incident occurred, Colorado Civil Air Patrol confirmed.

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Pilot Susan Wolber and aerial photographer Jay Rhoten lost their lives in the crash while co-pilot Randall Settergren suffered injuries, the state’s Governor Jared Polis announced Saturday.

Aerial photos show the wreckage from the crash

Aerial photos show the wreckage from the crash (Fox31 Denver)

These individuals “served the Civil Air Patrol as volunteers who wanted to help make Colorado a better, safer place for all. The State of Colorado is grateful for their commitment to service and it will not be forgotten,” the governor said.

The sheriff’s office is still working on recovery operations, which it expects will take several days “due to the extreme, rugged terrain,” authorities said. An investigation into the crash is also ongoing.

Major General Laura Clellan, the Adjutant General of Colorado of the state’s department of Military and Veterans Affairs, also issued a statement in the wake of the tragedy.

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“The volunteers of Civil Air Patrol are a valuable part of the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs, and the lifesaving work they do on a daily basis directly contributes to the public safety of Coloradans throughout the state,” she said. “Our thoughts and deepest condolences are with the families of those involved in the crash. I would also like to thank all of the first responders who assisted with rescue efforts.”

Colorado Civil Air Patrol missions “range from search-and-rescue of lost hikers or hunters, location of downed aircraft, and transport of emergency personnel or medical materials,” the statement said.

Loveland Fire Rescue Authority, Thompson Valley EMS, UCHealth LifeLine, Larimer County Parks Rangers, Loveland Police Department, the United States Forest Service, and the Colorado Air National Guard also assisted with the incident response.

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Starbucks pares hedging programme despite coffee market surge

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Starbucks pares hedging programme despite coffee market surge

Starbucks has slashed its use of hedges against coffee price shocks even as the price of beans has soared, raising concerns that it may be unusually exposed to market swings. 

The world’s largest café chain held less than $200mn worth of fixed-price contracts for so-called green, or unroasted, coffee at the end of its fiscal year in September, according to its newly filed annual report, down from $1bn as recently as 2019. 

The decline has occurred at a time when roasters confront supply deficits after persistently poor crops in major exporters such as Brazil. Benchmark coffee futures rose above $3 a pound in New York on Friday to a 13-year high, following a more than 70 per cent gain in the past 12 months. 

Starbucks buys 3 per cent of the world’s coffee to supply its 40,000 cafés and retail businesses. A team based in Lausanne, Switzerland manages purchasing high-quality arabica beans under a subsidiary named the Starbucks Coffee Trading Company. The decline in the value of its fixed-price contracts has attracted attention on Wall Street. 

“They are substantially less hedged than they used to be. It makes the next 12 months of coffee prices more important than they’ve ever been,” said Gregory Francfort, a restaurant analyst at Guggenheim Securities.   

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New Starbucks chief executive Brian Niccol is in the the early stages of a plan to revive flagging sales at cafés. One of his goals is to restore its appeal as a community coffee house. “At Starbucks, coffee comes first,” he said in video remarks last month. 

The company is not alone among roasters in letting price-cover slip during an explosive market rally. Data from the US commodity futures regulator shows commercial traders have sharply reduced their contracts to buy arabica.

A coffee trader familiar with Starbucks’ operations says the majority of its purchases are made with so-called “price-to-be-fixed” contracts, which establish a quantity, delivery month and the amount of price premium to New York’s futures market. The final purchase price is agreed later.

“When a market rallies significantly and quickly, as coffee has done, the roasting community in general tends to let coverage decline,” the trader said.

Starbucks’ 56 “tier one” suppliers range from global commodities trading houses such as Louis Dreyfus and Olam to farmer co-operatives. The company in 2021 said it bought 800mn lbs of coffee annually — an amount that would cost $2.4bn at current benchmark prices. 

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Starbucks had $1.1bn in green coffee purchase obligations on its books as of September, according to its annual report.

The company buys green coffee using two types of contracts: fixed-price and price-to-be-fixed, according to its annual report. For the latter, the company also uses derivatives contracts to insure against market gyrations. 

Line chart of $mn showing Starbucks cuts value of 'fixed-price' coffee purchases

“Like others, right now we’re remaining agile in a very dynamic market,” Starbucks said in response to questions. “An example of that agility is that our current priced coverage is slightly lower than our typical range of 9-18 months.”  

Starbucks executives rarely discuss coffee hedging with Wall Street, but in 2021 — another period of furious price rises — then-CEO Kevin Johnson told analysts the company purchased 12 to 18 months in advance, and at the time had locked in prices for the next 14 months.

“We may be the only large buyer of green coffee that uses this approach, and that will serve us well as it gives us a significant advantage relative to our competitors who, if they don’t buy this far in advance, will certainly not have that cost structure that we put in place,” he said.

The value of Starbucks’ price-to-be-fixed contracts has fluctuated, ending the fiscal year in September at $929mn, according to the annual report.

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That sum was more than a year ago, but well below levels of 2021 and 2022. Coffee derivatives contracts held by Starbucks were worth $154mn, the lowest September value since 2020. 

Starbucks’ coffee trading operation is headed by Andres Berron, an eight-year employee of the company, according to his LinkedIn page. The company declined to make him available for comment. 

Starbucks said its approach to purchasing coffee hasn’t changed. The company pointed out that its current stocks of physical coffee are a cushion against volatility in the spot market.

Inventories of unroasted and roasted beans combined were worth about $920mn as of September, according to the annual report, the lowest fiscal year-end figure since 2021. 

“We keep a healthy and ample green coffee inventory that outpaces other roasters,” Starbucks said. 

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Global coffee production has been rocked by poor weather. The US Department of Agriculture last week cut its production forecast for Brazil, the top supplier, citing irregular rainfall and high temperatures that could depress its next harvest. 

“The global coffee market just can’t seem to catch a break,” said Kona Haque, a commodities analyst at ED&F Man in London. “Just when you think maybe this year we’re going to get a big crop and finally get back to a surplus and rebuild our stocks, you get another adverse-weather event in either Brazil or Vietnam, and things get tight again.” 

“Because markets now are tighter than usual, there is upward pressure on prices,” she added. “In a rising price environment, clearly you want to be hedged. You do not want to be exposed to rising spot prices.” 

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