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New York Election Polls 2024: Harris vs. Trump

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New York Election Polls 2024: Harris vs. Trump

About our polling averages

Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.

We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling

These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.

The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.

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Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district.

Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.

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Labour MP suspended after footage appears to show him punching man

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Labour MP suspended after footage appears to show him punching man

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Labour MP Mike Amesbury has been suspended by his party after a late-night altercation in which CCTV footage appeared to show him punching a man to the ground.

Sir Keir Starmer, prime minister, approved the suspension of the party whip from Amesbury on Sunday evening, after new video footage emerged of the incident on Friday.

In the video, obtained by the Daily Mail, the MP for Runcorn and Helsby appears to continue to hit the man as he is lying in the street. It is unclear what events led up to the altercation.

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The incident is likely to become a distraction for Starmer, who will deliver a speech on Monday ahead of Wednesday’s Budget.

Labour said in a statement that Amesbury was assisting the police with their inquiries, adding: “As these inquiries are now ongoing, the Labour party has administratively suspended Mr Amesbury’s membership of the Labour party pending an investigation.”

Amesbury said on his Facebook page on Saturday: “Last night I was involved in an incident that took place after I felt threatened following an evening out with friends.

“This morning I contacted Cheshire police myself to report what happened. I will not be making any further public comment but will of course co-operate with any inquiries if required by Cheshire police.”

The latest CCTV footage came after another video was posted on X, which appeared to show Amesbury shouting at the man who was lying in the street in the Cheshire town of Frodsham.

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“You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?” Amesbury is heard shouting at the man. The context of the incident is not clear.

Cheshire Police said: “At 02:48 BST on Saturday 26 October police were called to reports of an assault in Frodsham.

“A caller reported he had been assaulted by a man in Main Street. Inquiries are ongoing,” the force added.

Amesbury was first elected to parliament in 2017 and held his constituency with a majority of 14,696 at the general election in July. He was previously a shadow minister.

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Tropical storm conditions right as hurricane season enters final month – UPI.com

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Tropical storm conditions right as hurricane season enters final month – UPI.com

1 of 2 | Tropical storm activity is not expected during the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. Image courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Oct. 27 (UPI) — Forecasters are monitoring the southwest Caribbean for possible late-season tropical development as a low pressure system is expected to form east of Central America and south of Jamaica in the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center said.

“Thereafter, this area of low pressure will be watched closely to see if it becomes better defined with concentrated thunderstorm activity. If that happens, then a tropical depression or storm could develop,” the NHC said.

Any tropical weather development would not likely occur until the end of this week or early next, and would be called Patty if it becomes a named storm.

“The water temperatures are very warm, and we are expecting that the winds shear to be on the lower side,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert AlexDaSilva told USA Today. “So I think strongly something will develop.”

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November is the last month of hurricane season and typically generates one storm every one to two years, on average. In the past decade, the season’s last storm came Oct. 28 and as late as Dec. 7. Last year, there were no named storms in November. But in 2022, Lisa, Martin and Nicole developed into hurricanes in the month.

Nicole struck the Atlantic coast of Florida that year, becoming only the fourth hurricane to make landfall on the mainland U.S. in recent history in November.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 with Tropical Storm Alberto forming on June 19.

So far this year there have been 15 named storms with 10 hurricanes, including five that made landfall in the United States.

Three struck Florida: Debby, Helen and Milton, the first time 2005 four hurricanes made landfall in the state.

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“Quite simply, we are tired,” Ryan Truchelut, WeatherTiger meteorologist, said. “The 2024 hurricane season punched us harder than any in a generation.”

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Georgia’s opposition calls for protests after pro-Russian party declared winner

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Georgia’s opposition calls for protests after pro-Russian party declared winner

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Georgia’s opposition has called for protests after rejecting preliminary results showing victory for the ruling party in a pivotal election widely seen as a choice between a future in Europe or alignment with Russia.

With votes from 99 per cent of precincts counted, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party controlled by pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili had secured 54.2 per cent of the vote, according to Central Election Commission results early on Sunday.

The main opposition parties — the four-party Coalition for Change and the United National Movement (UNM) founded by jailed former president Mikheil Saakashvili — received 10.8 per cent and 10.1 per cent of the vote, respectively. They have called for protests on Sunday.

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If Ivanishvili’s party’s majority in the 150-seat parliament is confirmed, analysts say it could end Georgia’s hopes of securing EU membership and deliver a severe blow to the opposition and civil society. It has been in power for 12 years. “The elections were stolen, this is a coup and the GD is responsible for it and they will be held accountable,” Nika Gvaramia, one of the leaders of the oppositional coalition said late on Saturday. 

Tina Bokuchava, the chair of the UNM, also rejected the results: “We will not give up our European future and we will not accept the stolen election results announced by the Central Election Commission,” she said. 

Before the polls had even closed on Sunday, GD Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze declared the results a “landslide victory” for the ruling party.

“It’s a rare occasion worldwide for the same party to continue succeeding under such difficult circumstances,” Ivanishvili said from a stage in front of GD’s headquarters. 

Observers reported widespread irregularities during the vote, including the distribution of pre-marked ballots, the forced expulsion of observers from polling stations and violations of voting secrecy.

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“My Vote,” a domestic electoral observation mission, described the irregularities as part of a “larger scheme” designed to undermine the outcome. The ruling party also pressured state workers to secure their votes, observers said. “They often don’t even need to make explicit threats. Hints like ‘you need to do the right thing’ are enough,” said Natia, an election observer.

Unidentified men dressed in dark jeans and black coats — widely believed to belong to special services — attacked opposition party headquarters and a crew from an opposition TV station. The Financial Times saw these groups outside several polling stations in Tbilisi on Sunday. 

In the capital GD polled 38-40 per cent of the vote, while in smaller towns such as Bolnisi and Marneuli it secured 80 per cent, preliminary results on the election commission’s website showed. 

The first exit polls had revealed starkly conflicting results. Two polls, conducted by Edison and HarrisX for opposition-leaning TV stations, showed GD receiving between 40.9 and 42 per cent of the vote, while a pro-government station reported 56 per cent.

The elections are seen by many as a watershed moment for Georgia’s future. About 80 per cent of the population support accession to the EU, a prospect made more tangible after Georgia received EU candidate status in December 2023.

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While GD formally remains committed to Georgia’s integration with Europe its anti-EU rhetoric stepped up after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Tbilisi refused to impose sanctions on Moscow and barred several Russian opposition politicians from entering the country.

The GD framed the elections as a choice between war and peace, positioning itself as able to maintain equilibrium between the west and the Kremlin. The situation in Georgia closely mirrored the situation of Moldova, where voters last week opted for EU accession with a razor-thin majority.

To promote the war and peace message, GD had launched an aggressive campaign, covering cities with posters that juxtaposed scenes of destruction in Ukraine — burnt buses and ruined buildings — with pristine images of Georgia.

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