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Here’s what happened on Wednesday.
President Trump took office 101 days ago after a campaign in which voters bought his argument that he could skillfully manage the economy and that his policy prescriptions could both bolster growth and eradicate inflation.
So the news on Wednesday that the nation’s gross domestic product had contracted in the first three months of the year was a sharp political jolt as well as a blinking economic warning.
It came at the end of a quarter in which stock prices were down sharply, Wall Street’s worst performance at the start of a new presidential term since Gerald R. Ford tried to steer the country out of scandal and inflation 51 years ago. And it only added to the widespread uncertainty among businesses and consumers about what the rest of the year might hold as Mr. Trump pursues a trade war that is already choking off supply chains and threatening to push prices up and lead to shortages of critical components and products on shelves.
It is too soon to predict where the American economy is headed for the rest of the year, and Mr. Trump remains insistent that he will produce a flurry of trade deals that will bring manufacturing back to the United States and usher in a new age of prosperity.
But the first-quarter figures brought the political risks for him into focus. For Mr. Trump, what is at stake is a question of fundamental competence on an issue that he has always used to define himself.
If the report proves to be a harbinger of an extended slowdown or recession, the situation could become the economic analog of President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s fumbled withdrawal from Afghanistan four years ago this summer. Mr. Biden’s job approval ratings never recovered from that early debacle. Nothing he did later — not the millions of jobs created, not the big legislative victories, not the rapid response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — could restore the sense among voters that he could be trusted to carry out the job with the skill they assumed he brought to it.
Mr. Trump stood in the Rose Garden on April 2, what he called “liberation day,” and rolled out a broad and punitive set of tariffs on trading partners. He has promised that other countries will come begging for a deal to roll back those levies and other tariffs he has imposed.
A substantial number of Americans appear skeptical. In a New York Times/Siena College poll last week, 55 percent disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy, with 43 percent approving. About half of voters disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of trade.
Some of Mr. Trump’s economic advisers now recognize that the timing and execution of his tariff announcements could prove to be colossal mistakes, even if they applaud the underlying strategy. That is why, every few days, they are announcing new exceptions, most recently to relieve the pain for American carmakers.
“On April 2, standing in arguably the most powerful place in the world, President Trump thought he was projecting American strength,” said Matthew P. Goodman, who runs the geoeconomics center at the Council on Foreign Relations and served under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. “But he discovered that trade is complicated, that you need to be more surgical, and he has had to tack back from that ever since.”
Mr. Trump, the billionaire real estate investor, has acknowledged that his strategy will bring some temporary pain to Americans, but seemed to argue on Wednesday that it would hardly be noticed by ordinary Americans, at least at toy stores.
“Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know?” he said. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
Whatever the cost of a Barbie, Mr. Trump is facing a fundamental timing problem. It will take years for the huge investments he predicts will flow into the United States to unfold and bring about the industrial renaissance he has promised. Building the most cutting-edge semiconductor fabrication plant, for example, can easily take five years.
“Those chips, those beautiful chips, make those suckers in the U.S.A.,” Mr. Trump said in the White House on Wednesday as he addressed executives and called out how much each had committed to spending on new facilities in the country.
It is too early to know how quickly those investments will take off, including Apple’s commitment, hailed again by Mr. Trump on Wednesday, to invest $500 billion, including a chunk of its manufacturing capability, in the United States over the next four years.
But the economic pain of the tariffs could start within months, with upward pressure on prices and shortages of both industrial and consumer products made abroad.
Much of Mr. Trump’s political problem lies in that disconnect. For many of the products Americans will be paying more for — especially Chinese-made products — there is no American alternative. And for many more, producing them in the United States may make no sense.
For all his downplaying of economic concerns, Mr. Trump is clearly sensitive to the prospect of being blamed for rising prices. When reports began to circulate this week that an Amazon subsidiary was thinking about posting the tariffs customers would be paying on every product, Mr. Trump called Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, to complain.
Giving consumers a breakdown of how much tariffs are costing them, the White House said, would be a “hostile and political act.” Amazon quickly said it had never fully approved the plan, and that it would not go into effect.
But many business leaders are rattled by the environment, saying they have no way of projecting their earnings for the second quarter because the economic environment has never been more opaque.
“I keep telling them not to underestimate Donald Trump,” said David McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth, the anti-tax advocacy group whose members almost unanimously cheered Mr. Trump’s return to office.
Mr. McIntosh said he is optimistic that Mr. Trump will be successful at negotiating down tariffs with Western-style democracies that rank among America’s biggest trading partners. “I run into a lot of executives who ask, ‘OK, how does Donald Trump do this?’ And my answer is to wrap their minds around ‘The Art of the Deal,’ that he is negotiator in chief.”
The way to calm the markets now, he said, is to “get Congress to get the tax cut bill done,” and to extend the tax cuts Mr. Trump got enacted in his first term.
Mr. McIntosh is pressing to expand that tax cut, specifically by permitting businesses to write off the cost of building new production facilities immediately, rather than depreciate those costs over decades.
Mr. Trump may score some early wins. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that “we are very close on India.” He added that South Korea was “sending its A-team” to negotiate and that a deal was also possible soon with Japan. Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, had called him the day before and said “‘Let’s make a deal.’”
Perhaps so, but Mr. Carney also had this to say on Tuesday after winning the Canadian election: “Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over.”
Mr. Carney has vowed to reduce Canada’s dependence on its huge neighbor, no easy assignment since bilateral trade amounts to about a fifth of the country’s economy. China, the most powerful player in Mr. Trump’s trade wars, has been pursuing a similar strategy. And its leader, Xi Jinping, has every incentive to make the next few months as politically painful for Mr. Trump as possible.
Mr. Xi has largely maintained radio silence since Mr. Trump announced an escalating set of tariffs on Chinese goods, settling at 145 percent after several angry moves and countermoves with Beijing. That rate is so high that it essentially freezes trade; already there are reports of freighters loaded with goods that are being turned around, so that importers do not have to pay those tariffs.
Mr. Trump’s bet is that Mr. Xi will blink first because the pain for the Chinese economy will be so great that he will have to strike an accommodation that will, over time, allow the United States to get back to something approaching normal. Mr. Xi is betting the opposite: that Mr. Trump has overreached, and can’t withstand bad G.D.P. numbers, rising inflation or plummeting polls.
Only one of them is right.
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An independent effort says AI is the secret to topple two-party power in Congress
The Independent Center is using AI to identify Congressional districts where independent candidates could win over the Democrat or Republican candidate. Its goal is to elect at least a handful of independents to disrupt the two-party system on Capitol Hill.
Glenn Harvey for NPR
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Glenn Harvey for NPR
The rise of AI assistants is rewriting the rhythms of everyday life: people are feeding their blood test results into chatbots, turning to ChatGPT for advice on their love lives and leaning on AI for everything from planning trips to finishing homework assignments.
Now, one organization suggests artificial intelligence can go beyond making daily life more convenient. It says it’s the key to reshaping American politics.
“Without AI, what we’re trying to do would be impossible,” explained Adam Brandon, a senior advisor at the Independent Center, a nonprofit that studies and engages with independent voters.
The goal is to elect a handful of independent candidates to the House of Representatives in 2026, using AI to identify districts where independents could succeed and uncover diamond in the rough candidates.
In a time when control of the House balances on a knife’s edge, winning even a handful of seats could deny either party from getting a majority and upend the way the House currently operates.
It’s a bold proposition in a system that hasn’t seen a new independent candidate win a House seat in 35 years.
But data shows a rise in moderate and independent voters. Gallup found 43% of Americans — a record high — claiming the independent label in 2024. Exit polls that year showed 34 percent of voters identified as independent, up from 26 percent in 2020.
“There’s a huge chunk of people who for different reasons can’t stomach either of the two parties,” said David Barker, a professor of government at American University. “It’s the first time in a long time where a plurality of Americans are now identifying as independents, and so that does seem to signal a pretty important shift.”
Brandon said that shift is what makes the time right to disrupt the status quo.
“It’s like Uber and taxis. You had a system with an obvious flaw, that had entrenched operators and took a radical change to go completely around it,” he told NPR. “And that’s what we’re feeling now. People are so stuck into ‘Republican’ and ‘Democrat’ and we’re like, well, there’s something else.”
‘We’re political fighters’
Trying to throw a wrench into the stranglehold of a two-party system is an uphill battle, pushing against political orthodoxy and plenty of skeptics.
But the Independent Center’s strategists are a far cry from political newbies.
“We’re political fighters,” said Brandon, who served as President of FreedomWorks, the conservative grassroots group that helped turn Tea Party activists into a political force before closing its doors last year. “We have built a team of people that know how to do this. We’re not going to be pushovers.”
Brandon works closely with Brett Loyd, who runs The Bullfinch Group, the nonpartisan polling and data firm overseeing the polling and research at the Independent Center. He previously worked on President Trump’s polling team, when the president was a candidate.
“I’m a statistician. I kind of joke that I worked for the RNC because they offered me a job before the DNC,” he said with a smile. “My job is numbers and sentiment and game theory. It’s not necessarily Republican or Democratic.”
He makes it clear the goal of their work isn’t to erase partisanship altogether.
“This isn’t going to work everywhere. It’s going to work in very specific areas,” Loyd said. “If you live in a hyper-Republican or hyper-Democratic district, you should have a Democrat or Republican representing you.”
But with the help of AI, he’s identified 40 seats that don’t fit that mold, where he said independents can make inroads with voters fed up with both parties. The Independent Center plans to have about ten candidates in place by the spring, with the goal of winning at least half of the races.
Brandon predicts those wins could prompt moderate partisans in the House to switch affiliations.
“I had one Republican [member] tell me in his office, ‘I’m too chicken**** to do this right now,’” he recalled. “‘But if you can do this, I will join you.’”
From mining Reddit to matching on LinkedIn
Their proprietary AI tool created by an outside partner has been years in the making.
While focus groups and polling have long driven understanding of American sentiments, AI can monitor what people are talking about in real time.
“Polling is a snapshot in time — a Tuesday at 11 when you got the phone call or you were at the focus group, this is how you felt, but then you went home and your views changed. We can watch that,” Brandon said.
They’re using AI to understand core issues and concerns of voters, and to hunt for districts ripe for an independent candidate to swoop in.
“A district that’s 50% Republican and 50% Democratic that keeps flip flopping because of who showed up on a given night, is that something that is truly independent versus a district in Arizona where a plurality is independent but they’re plugging their nose and voting?” Loyd explained. “We’re looking at voter participation rates. What districts have really low turnout because those people aren’t excited to go to the ballot box.”
He’s also looking at districts with younger voters, who he said embrace the independent message.
“When I say Gen Z and millennials, people keep rolling their eyes and they’re like, ‘the kids,’” he said. “Well, those kids are going to be more than half the electorate in the next presidential election.”
From there, the next step is taking the data and finding what the dream candidate looks like.
The Independent Center is recruiting candidates both from people who reach out to the organization directly and with the help of AI.
They can even run their data through LinkedIn to identify potential candidates with certain interests and career and volunteer history.
“Usually they’re not self-promoting, but their actions leave a footprint,” Loyd said, giving the example of someone volunteering at an event covered by the local paper. “We ask our AI to find that footprint.”
The AI also informs where a candidate is best placed to win.
Brandon points to one instance where a candidate was poised to run in their home district. The AI showed the district next door is a better bet.
“30 minutes way, perfect fit,” he said. “And that’s what [that person’s] going to do, because we found they matched up perfectly.”
‘What’s wrong with spoiling something people don’t like?’
One criticism Brandon and Loyd acknowledge they hear often is the idea of ‘spoilers’ — non-winning candidates whose presence on the ballot affects which candidate wins.
“It’s a partisan, archaic line,” Loyd said. “What’s wrong with spoiling something people don’t like?”
He said the people criticizing independents getting into races as spoilers have an entrenched interest in the current system.
“The Republican and Democratic establishments still live in a world that’s binary. It’s Coke or Pepsi, it’s Ford or Chevy, it’s MSNBC or Fox News,” he said. “That works for people that watch MSNBC and Fox News. Everybody else? We don’t live in that binary system anymore.”
Brandon said the only thing to do is lean in.
“We’re going to embrace the spoiler because what we’re spoiling is a pretty corrupt system.”
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Venezuela calls Trump’s call to close airspace a ‘colonialist threat’
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after speaking to troops via video from his Mar-a-Lago estate on Thanksgiving, Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
Alex Brandon/AP
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Alex Brandon/AP
The Venezuelan government has condemned President Trump’s statement on Saturday calling for the airspace above Venezuela to be closed.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”
The Venezuelan government responded with a statement saying Trump’s comments violate international law and are a “colonialist threat” to the country’s sovereignty.
“No authority outside the Venezuelan institutional framework has the power to interfere with, block, or condition the use of international airspace,” the statement said.

As of Sunday afternoon, Flightradar24 shows planes continuing to fly in Venezuelan airspace.
This comes a day after the Senate and House Armed Services committees said they would look into the Pentagon after The Washington Post reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave an order to kill all crew members aboard a boat suspected of smuggling drugs in the Caribbean in September. NPR has confirmed the Washington Post’s reporting.
The military has carried out at least 21 strikes and killed at least 82 people on alleged drug boats as part of “Operation Southern Spear,” a campaign that the Trump administration says is aimed at tackling drug-trafficking.
Venezuela said in its statement that “such statements represent an explicit use of force, which is prohibited by Article 2, paragraph 4 of the U.N. Charter of the United Nations.”
Democrats have also strongly criticized the administration’s strategy, saying the military didn’t have enough evidence that the boats were carrying drugs before conducting the strikes. Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland, told ABC’S This Week on Sunday it’s possible the military’s actions could be considered a “war crime,” and that Hegseth should be held accountable.
“They’ve never presented the public with the information they’ve got here,” Van Hollen said, “But it could be worse than that, right? If that theory is wrong, then it’s plain murder.”
However, Republican Senator Eric Schmitt, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said on Sunday Morning Futures on Fox News that Trump is acting “well within his Article 2 powers” when it comes to curbing drug smuggling by striking the boats.
“I think it’s a two part strategy,” Schmitt said. “One is to get rid of the precursors that are coming from China, and then take out the cartels that are distributing this and bringing it to the United States of America.”
Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress have expressed frustration at Trump’s stance on Venezuela, and that the Trump administration conducted the strikes without legislative approval.
“Trump’s reckless actions towards Venezuela are pushing America closer and closer to another costly foreign war,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted on X on Saturday, hours after Trump’s post about Venezuelan airspace.
Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Trump ally, also posted on Saturday, saying “Reminder, Congress has the sole power to declare war.”
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Northwestern settles with Trump administration in $75M deal to regain federal funding
Signs are displayed outside a tent encampment at Northwestern University on April 26, 2024, in Evanston, Ill.
Teresa Crawford/AP
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Teresa Crawford/AP
Northwestern University has agreed to a $75 million payout to the Trump administration to settle a discrimination investigation into the school and to restore federal funding that had been frozen throughout the inquest, the Justice Department announced on Friday.
“Today’s settlement marks another victory in the Trump Administration’s fight to ensure that American educational institutions protect Jewish students and put merit first,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement.
“Institutions that accept federal funds are obligated to follow civil rights law — we are grateful to Northwestern for negotiating this historic deal.”
Northwestern is one of several schools ensnared in President Trump’s campaign against university policies he has decried as “woke.”
Specifically, the Illinois private school was one of 60 colleges the Education Department accused of shirking their obligations to “protect Jewish students on campus, including uninterrupted access to campus facilities and educational opportunities” amid heated university protests against the war in Gaza.
In April, the White House announced it was withholding some $790 million in federal funds from Northwestern while the government investigated the claims. University interim President Henry Bienen said in a statement to university personnel that “the payment is not an admission of guilt,” according to the school newspaper The Daily Northwestern.
Earlier this month, Cornell reached a deal requiring the university to pay $60 million to unfreeze $250 million withheld by the Trump administration over alleged civil rights violations. The private Ivy League university said the settlement did not come “at the cost of compromising our values or independence.”
Per the agreement, Northwestern will pay out the $75 million over time through 2028 and “shall maintain clear policies and procedures relating to demonstrations, protests, displays, and other expressive activities, as well as implement mandatory antisemitism training for all students, faculty, and staff,” according to the DOJ.
Education Secretary Linda McMahon called the settlement “a huge win” for higher education.
“The deal cements policy changes that ‘will protect students and other members of the campus from harassment and discrimination,’ and it recommits the school to merit-based hiring and admissions,” she said in a statement.
“The reforms reflect bold leadership at Northwestern, and they are a roadmap for institutional leaders around the country that will help rebuild public trust in our colleges and universities,” she added.
An explainer posted to the university’s website said that the school decided to negotiate an agreement rather than take a chance in court, calling the cost of a legal fight “too high and the risks too grave.”
Northwestern’s Bienen said in a video statement that the school would retain its academic freedom and autonomy from the federal government.
“There were several red lines that I, the board of Trustees and university leadership refused to cross. I would not have signed anything that would have given the federal government any say in who we hire, what they teach, who we admit or what they study,” Bienen said.
“Put simply, Northwestern runs Northwestern.”
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