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Foreign influence efforts reached a fever pitch during the 2024 elections

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Foreign influence efforts reached a fever pitch during the 2024 elections

Voters line up to cast their ballots on Nov. 5, 2024 in Austell, Georgia. Intelligence officials and researchers say Russia, Iran, and China tried to influence Americans in this year’s election. But there’s no indication so far their efforts swayed results.

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Megan Varner/Getty Images

The final stretch of the 2024 election was marked by a series of increasingly brazen attempts to influence voters and disrupt polling places. U.S. intelligence officials and researchers believe Russia and other foreign powers were behind the efforts.

On Election Day itself, hoax bomb threats were sent to polling locations in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and the Navajo Nation in Arizona. The FBI says that many of the bomb threats “appear to originate from Russian email domains,” which NPR confirmed after reviewing an email sent to Georgia locations.

No bombs were found at any of those locations and there’s no indication that the delays they caused in voting swayed the election results.

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But those threats were part of a broader pattern, said Graham Brookie, a senior director at the Atlantic Council’s DFRLab.

“One of the major trends that we saw is the highest volume of online foreign influence efforts directed at the U.S. elections by…three state threat actors…Russia, Iran and China,” says Brookie.

Russia used intermediaries to hire American right-wing influencers to spread Kremlin talking points. It created networks of websites that resembled trusted U.S. news outlets, along with fictitious sites, to spread polarizing content. China sought to sway down-ballot races by posting negative content about congressional candidates it deemed anti-China. Hackers tied to Iran successfully got documents from the campaign of President-elect Donald Trump and tried to leak them to U.S. news outlets. The DOJ also alleged that Iran tried to assassinate Trump.

In the case of the Election Day bomb threats, neither U.S. intelligence officials nor law enforcement have yet to confirm with high confidence whether the Russian government was behind the threats. But “if it is confirmed to be Russia, then that is really, really significant and measurable foreign interference,” Brookie said.

Brookie said if proven, the bomb threats would mark a break from the other kinds of influence operations the Kremlin has run against the U.S. in recent years.

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In the weeks before Election Day, inflammatory videos tied to Russia surfaced on social media. One falsely depicted ballots being destroyed in Bucks County, Pennsylvania; another claimed to depict a whistleblower alleging election fraud in Arizona; a third falsely alleged noncitizens were voting in large numbers in Georgia, an idea Trump and fellow Republicans embraced in the run-up to the election.

The accounts that first posted these videos were tied to a known Russian influence operation Microsoft has dubbed Storm 1516, first identified last fall by researchers at Clemson University. The videos circulated widely on the social media site X and can still be seen there, even as many of the Russian-affiliated accounts that seeded the videos have been taken down.

In one case, CNN reported a registered agent of Russia living in Australia paid an American influencer living in New Jersey to post videos that make false allegations of election fraud.

American intelligence officials issued regular warnings about foreign interference for months in the run-up to the election. But in the final days of voting, they took the unusual step of calling out specific posts and videos they attributed to Russia

The FBI also flagged phony videos and statements that spread election false narratives using the agency’s insignia. The agency did not attribute them to a nation state, but researchers said they were also likely the product of a Russian operation, while also noting that they did not attract much attention.

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“High volume and low impact,” Darren Linvill of Clemson University’s Digital Forensic Lab said, “mostly just ‘seen’ by the marketing bots [Russia has].”

Russia tends to try out many tactics in an effort to “throw the kitchen sink at things and see what works,” said Caroline Orr Bueno, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland.

Studies of past foreign influence campaigns have not found evidence that they sway elections. Orr Bueno said focusing on just the way foreign adversaries target U.S. elections might be too narrow a view of their objectives.

“Influence operations really aren’t targeting a distinct event,” Orr Bueno said. “The elections may be targeted as part of a broader influence operation but these are long-term strategic operations with a very long-term goal.”

Brookie agreed, noting that Russia wants to win its war in Ukraine, China wants to improve its global image, and Iran wants to avenge the first Trump administration’s assassination of one of its top generals.

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The fact that foreign influence efforts go beyond a single campaign or discrete events make it difficult to measure the impact, said Orr Bueno. All three countries tend to exploit wedge issues that already divide American society and seek to amplify Americans rather than creating entirely new narratives.

The ongoing foreign influence campaigns mean that many Americans should exercise more care when interacting with political material online, said Orr Bueno.

She offered questions they might ask themselves: “Why am I following the people I’m following? Am I following them because they’re telling me the truth about the world around me, or am I following them because they’re telling me things that make me feel good?”

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Live news: Trump gives US ambassador to Israel post to ex-governor Mike Huckabee

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Live news: Trump gives US ambassador to Israel post to ex-governor Mike Huckabee

Events to look out for on Tuesday include speeches from the Federal Reserve governor, Home Depot earnings and Spotify results:

Fedspeak: Less than a week on from the central bank’s second rate cut of the year, Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller will deliver the keynote at the Clearing House Annual Conference in New York. Separately, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak at a summit in Baltimore. At Carnegie Mellon University, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker will deliver a lecture on “Fintech, AI & the Changing Financial Landscape”.

Home Depot: Investors will be eager to find out whether the Federal Reserve’s back-to-back rate cuts, which will have an effect on mortgage rates, have made a difference to consumer appetite for home improvement projects. Home Depot, which last quarter cut its sales outlook on weakened consumer spending, is projected to report a 4.3 per cent increase in third-quarter revenues, to $39.3bn.

Other earnings: Tyson Foods will announce fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell. Flutter and Spotify will post quarterly results after market close.

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Trump transition tracker: Trump nominates Mike Huckabee to be Israeli ambassador

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Trump transition tracker: Trump nominates Mike Huckabee to be Israeli ambassador

President-elect Donald Trump’s newly picked “border czar” Tom Homan addressed his forthcoming deportation plan and state leaders who have objected to sweeping immigration policies.

During an appearance on Fox News on Monday, Homan issued a warning to so-called “sanctuary” states and cities to “get the hell out of the way” of the Trump administration’s mass deportation plans.

File – In this Dec. 5, 2017 file photo, then Acting Director for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Thomas Homan at a news conference in Washington.

“I saw today numerous governors from sanctuary states saying they’re going to step in the way. They better get the hell out of the way. Either you help us or get the hell out of the way, because ICE is going to do their job,” he warned, referring to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, where he formerly served as director.

“I’ll double the workforce in that sanctuary city. We’re going to do our job despite the politics. We’re doing it. So get used to it, because we’re coming,” Homan said.

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When asked if he plans to deport American citizens, Homan said, “President Trump has made it clear we will prioritize public safety threats and national security threats first, and that’s how the focus would be.”

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Germany’s Olaf Scholz defies odds as party swings behind re-election bid

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Germany’s Olaf Scholz defies odds as party swings behind re-election bid

Olaf Scholz has just pulled the plug on his coalition and lost his parliamentary majority, with polls suggesting his party will be defeated in Germany’s upcoming snap election. Yet he still looks likely to be crowned as his party’s candidate for chancellor.

The government crisis that culminated last week with Scholz calling time on the three-party alliance plunged Germany into a new phase of turbulence. But Social Democrat leaders have rallied round him, steadying his status in a party that long nurtured doubts about their chancellor.

Some Social Democrats would still prefer to see him replaced on the ballot by Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister. But they are the minority. Most expect an SPD congress to be held in the coming weeks to anoint Scholz as the party’s Kanzlerkandidat — regardless of his approval ratings.

The support for Scholz was on full display at an emotional meeting of the SPD parliamentary group last week when he was given a standing ovation by MPs.

Jens Spahn, an MP for the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and a former health minister, described the scene as “surreal”.

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“Here is Olaf Scholz, a failed chancellor, his coalition has just broken down, he’s sacked his finance minister and his SPD thinks it’s a cause for celebration?” Spahn told the Financial Times.

The incredulity in opposition ranks increased after a television interview with Scholz on Sunday evening in which he refused to admit mistakes and, in the view of some commentators, came across as cold and unsympathetic.

Some have openly questioned why the party still backs Scholz. TV presenter Micky Beisenherz compared him to Bruce Willis in the film The Sixth Sense. He “goes to work every day even though he’s long dead,” he wrote on X. “He just doesn’t know it yet.”

Just months ago, Scholz’s position was precarious. Some in the SPD blamed him for the party’s slump in support, with polls putting it at between 14 and 16 per cent over the past year, way behind the CDU on 30 to 32 per cent.

Many Social Democrats wonder whether they would be better off fielding defence minister Boris Pistorius © Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa

But Scholz’s standing among some of his party colleagues has paradoxically improved since the government’s collapse. They have hailed him as a hero who finally lanced the boil, ending a dysfunctional government riven by ideological conflict.

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For them, the sacking of finance minister Christian Lindner, leader of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), was the inevitable climax of months of provocation.

“There is relief that we will no longer be subjected to endless humiliation by Lindner and the FDP,” said one SPD MP.

Scholz said he fired Lindner because he refused to suspend the “debt brake” — Germany’s constitutional cap on new borrowing — to allow for more funding for Ukraine. The issue has taken on greater urgency since US voters re-elected Donald Trump, who has questioned western aid to Kyiv.

The dismissal played well in the SPD’s grassroots. “It was a kind of liberation — long overdue,” said Dirk Smaczny, head of the party’s local branch in Rheinhausen-Mitte, near the Ruhr industrial city of Duisburg. “We’ve been waiting a long time for Scholz to show strong leadership, and he finally delivered it.”

“He could have said ‘let’s just muddle through another year’,” said Johannes Fechner, a senior SPD MP. “The fact he accepted that the country needed a new government, even though it might mean he’ll lose his job — the SPD rank-and-file really respect him for that.”

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Yet Scholz remains controversial in the party. Closely associated with the labour market reforms of chancellor Gerhard Schröder in the early 2000s that alienated working-class voters, he lost his bid for the party leadership in 2019 in a humiliating defeat.

He staged a remarkable comeback two years later, running for chancellor in 2021 and winning the election. He then brought together the SPD, FDP and Greens in a coalition that was unique in Germany’s history.

But his record has been clouded by countless internal rows over economic policy that he tried — and ultimately failed — to mediate. Scholz has seen the worst approval ratings of any postwar chancellor.

On Monday two SPD politicians from the chancellor’s home town of Hamburg, Markus Schreiber and Tim Stoberock, said he should make way for the defence minister.

“Our chances of winning the election or at least performing a lot better are much greater with [Pistorius], who has long been Germany’s most popular politician,” they wrote on Instagram.

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Scholz spent too much time cobbling together compromises “in technocratic language” which were then rejected by his coalition partners. “We believe the negative image the people in this country have of him can no longer be repaired,” they wrote.

Privately, some SPD lawmakers agreed that Pistorius might be a better bet. “But politics doesn’t work like that,” said one. “Scholz’s huge strategic advantage is that he holds the reins of power. He’s the one who took this step. He’s the one who announced early elections. That gives him a certain strength.”

Scholz has shown no inclination to stand aside — nor does he intend to put his candidacy to a party vote.

His spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit on Monday defended the absence of a formal selection process, saying there was no need — and also no time.

“First of all, he’s the natural candidate because he’s chancellor,” he told reporters. “Secondly, look at the clock . . . We’re going to have snap elections quite soon, if he loses the confidence vote. We all need to focus on that right now, and you can understand why.”

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Observers said that approach made sense, especially in light of what just happened in the US.

Wolfgang Schroeder, a political scientist at Kassel University, noted that the Democrats had hoped to improve their fortunes by substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris just months before the election.

“It injected some momentum, but it didn’t turn out to be long-lasting or effective,” he said. “For that reason I would advise the SPD against carrying out any grand experiments right now.”

MPs from the opposition CDU say that suits them, predicting that Scholz will be soundly beaten by their leader Friedrich Merz. “Olaf Scholz is the face of failure,” said CDU’s Spahn. “As such, we couldn’t wish for a better opponent.”

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