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Dreaming of a white Christmas? There's hope, depending on where you live

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Dreaming of a white Christmas? There's hope, depending on where you live

An unidentified person braves the weather to do last-minute shopping on Christmas Eve in Omaha, Neb., on Dec. 24, 2009. That year, a powerful storm spread snow, sleet and rain across the nation’s midsection.

Nati Harnik/AP


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Nati Harnik/AP

If you’re hoping to wake up on Christmas morning to white fluffy stuff on the ground, there’s a chance you might get your wish.

Christmas magic won’t bring snow to the majority of the country, but some parts might just get lucky, according to Scott Kleebauer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.

“If you are one of those people that does get a chance to enjoy a white Christmas, definitely feel very lucky and very blessed to be able to enjoy something like that, as it looks like a lot of people this year will not be able to,” Kleebauer tells NPR.

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While hopes for a white Christmas are on many minds each year, experts say the chances of experiencing one may diminish in the future, in part because of shifts in weather patterns driven by global warming.

Here is what the weather is likely to look like on Christmas Day across the country and how a changing climate may impact Christmases to come.

Will you have a white Christmas?

The areas that have the highest chances for a white Christmas — when there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning — will be out west in the Rockies, around the Great Lakes and in higher terrain in northern New England, Kleebauer says. Parts of the Appalachian Mountains across the high country of West Virginia, western Maryland and into western Pennsylvania also have a chance for snow.

AccuWeather's 2024 white Christmas probability graphic for the United States shows snow possible in the north, Rockies, Sierra Nevadas and Cascades.

There’s hope for a white Christmas in a few parts of the U.S.

AccuWeather


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There’s also a high chance of “heavy precipitation and high elevation snow” in northern California and parts of the Pacific Northwest on Christmas Eve that will start again on Dec. 26, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, or CPC.

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“A storm system in the Pacific Northwest could bring mountain snow as Santa is making his rounds, and the CPC features a moderate potential for Heavy Snow Hazards in the northern Rockies, especially in the Cascade Mountains and the Bitterroot Range of Idaho,” Erica Grow Cei, meteorologist and spokesperson for the National Weather Service, tells NPR.

Most of the country is also expected to have temperatures that are “milder than average” on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, according to NOAA. Temperatures are expected to be near normal to slightly above normal across portions of the Plains and into the southeastern portion of the country. States including Texas and Florida are forecast to see temperatures in the 70s.

This map by the Climate Prediction Center shows areas at risk of heavy snow from Christmas Day to the end of the year.

This map by the Climate Prediction Center shows areas at risk of heavy snow from Christmas Day to the end of the year.

NOAA/NWS/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


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So far, 2024 has been the warmest year on record globally and is likely to beat the record set just last year, according to NOAA. The year is also on track to be one of the warmest two years ever recorded in the contiguous U.S.

Warmer temperatures could impact future white Christmases

Historically, parts of the northern U.S., the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada Mountains have had the highest likelihood of experiencing a white Christmas, according to Kleebauer and a map by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

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The last time the majority of America woke up to a white Christmas was nearly 15 years ago, Kleebauer says. On Dec. 19, 2009, a large snowstorm blanketed parts of the Northeast starting in Virginia and dumped more than 12 inches of snow on Boston, with snow lingering through Christmas Day. Snow also fell in other parts of the country during that time, resulting in “large snow coverage across the United States, even into those areas that don’t see white Christmases too often,” he says. Texas was one of those areas.

But because of warmer temperatures driven by climate change, the coldest temperatures are becoming less frequent in parts of the country.

This map based on U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information shows the historical probability of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. The agency says actual weather conditions on Christmas Day will vary each year.

This map by NOAA shows the historical probability of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. The agency says actual weather conditions on Christmas Day will vary each year.

NOAA/climate.gov


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When looking at changes in monthly and seasonal temperatures — along with the number of snowy days — “it is clear that winter is the fastest warming season across 74% of the United States, with the northeastern United States and Upper Midwest,” says Elizabeth Burakowski, a research assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Since the 1970s, the U.S. has seen rapidly warming temperatures, according to the federal government’s most recent National Climate Assessment, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

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“As the world’s climate has shifted toward warmer conditions, the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events have declined over much of the US, while the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat have increased,” the assessment says. “Across all regions of the US, people are experiencing warming temperatures and longer-lasting heatwaves. Over much of the country, nighttime temperatures and winter temperatures have warmed more rapidly than daytime and summer temperatures.”

As temperatures rise, more precipitation is expected to fall as rain instead of snow, particularly in areas in the western part of the U.S., the assessment also found. These temperatures will also lead to “earlier snowmelt, altered rates of snowmelt and evaporation directly from the snow, and longer snow-free periods,” the assessment says.

So far this winter, snowfall across parts of the U.S., including areas of the Prairie Pothole region including North and South Dakota, southern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, has been below normal, according to Shawn Carter, Winter Hydrology Desk lead at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. Government data shows that snowfall in the Sierra Nevadas and the Cascades are well above normal, while the Rockies are seeing a mix of normal to slightly below normal levels, Carter also says.

White Christmases are a sentimental favorite, but they are also a powerful example of how the world’s climate is changing.

“Seeing changes in the chances of a white Christmas is one of so many ways we may experience climate change,” Burakowski says. “When we come together as a community to address climate [change], we’re preserving so much more than snow on Christmas day.”

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Central time. The New York Times

A light, 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck in Louisiana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:30 a.m. Central time about 6 miles west of Edgefield, La., data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 4.4.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Central time. Shake data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 8:40 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 10:46 a.m. Eastern.

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

The allegation sounded like the stuff of spy movies: A Pakistani businessman trying to hire hit men, even handing them $5,000 in cash, to kill a U.S. politician on behalf of Iran ‘s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

It was true, and potential targets of the 2024 scheme included now-President Donald Trump, then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the man told jurors at his attempted terrorism trial in New York on Wednesday. But he insisted his actions were driven by fear for loved ones in Iran, and he figured he’d be apprehended before anything came of the scheme.

“My family was under threat, and I had to do this,” the defendant, Asif Merchant, testified through an Urdu interpreter. “I was not wanting to do this so willingly.”

Merchant said he had anticipated getting arrested before anyone was killed, intended to cooperate with the U.S. government and had hoped that would help him get a green card.

U.S. authorities were, indeed, on to him – the supposed hit men he paid were actually undercover FBI agents – and he was arrested on July 12, 2024, a day before an unrelated attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania.  During a search, investigators said they found a handwritten note that contained the codewords for the various aspects of the plot, CBS News previously reported

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Merchant did sit for voluntary FBI interviews, but he ultimately ended up with a trial, not a cooperation deal.

“You traveled to the United States for the purpose of hiring Mafia members to kill a politician, correct?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nina Gupta asked during her turn questioning Merchant Wednesday in a Brooklyn federal court.

“That’s right,” Merchant replied, his demeanor as matter-of-fact as his testimony was unusual.

The trial is unfolding amid the less than week-old Iran war, which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike that Trump summed up as “I got him before he got me.” Jurors are instructed to ignore news pertaining to the case.

The Iranian government has denied plotting to kill Trump or other U.S. officials.

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Merchant, 47, had a roughly 20-year banking career in Pakistan before getting involved in an array of businesses: clothing, car sales, banana exports, insulation imports. He openly has two families, one in Pakistan and the other in Iran – where, he said, he was introduced around the end of 2022 to a Revolutionary Guard intelligence operative. They initially spoke about getting involved in a hawala, an informal money transfer system, Merchant said.

Merchant testified that his periodic visits to the U.S. for his garment business piqued the interest of his Revolutionary Guard contact, who trained him on countersurveillance techniques.

The U.S. deems the Revolutionary Guard a “foreign terrorist organization.” Formally called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the force has been prominent in Iran under Khamenei.

Merchant said the handler told him to seek U.S. residents interested in working for Iran. Then came another assignment: Look for a criminal to arrange protests, steal things, do some money laundering, “and maybe have somebody murdered,” Merchant recalled.

“He did not tell me exactly who it is, but he told me – he named three people: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley,” he added.

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In 2024, multiple sources familiar with the investigation told CBS News Merchant planned to assassinate current and former government officials across the political spectrum.

Merchant allegedly sketched out the plot on a napkin inside his New York hotel room, prosecutors said, and told the individual “that there would be ‘security all around’ the person” they were planning to kill.

“No other option”

After U.S. immigration agents pulled Merchant aside at the Houston airport in April 2024, searched his possessions and asked about his travels to Iran, he concluded that he was under surveillance. But still he researched Trump rally locations, sketched out a plot for a shooting at a political rally, lined up the supposed hit men and scrambled together $5,000 from a cousin to pay them a “token of appreciation.”

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant. 

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AP


He even reported back to his Revolutionary Guard contact, sending observations – fake, Merchant said – tucked into a book that he shipped to Iran through a series of intermediaries.

Merchant said he “had no other option” than to play along because the handler had indicated that he knew who Merchant’s Iranian relatives were and where they lived.

In a court filing this week, prosecutors noted that Merchant didn’t seek out law enforcement to help with his purported predicament before he was arrested. He testified that he couldn’t turn to authorities because his handler had people watching him.

Prosecutors also said that in his FBI interviews, Merchant “neglected to mention any facts that could have supported” an argument that he acted under duress.

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Merchant told jurors Wednesday that he didn’t think agents would believe his story, because their questions suggested “they think that I’m some type of super-spy.”

“And are you a super-spy?” defense lawyer Avraham Moskowitz asked.

“No,” Merchant said. “Absolutely not.”

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