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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris make final push to break US election deadlock

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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris make final push to break US election deadlock

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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump raced across the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania on Monday, in a last-ditch quest to secure the final votes in one of the tightest US presidential contests in modern history.

The state has 19 electoral votes and has been long viewed as crucial for both candidates’ path to the White House, with Trump winning there in his successful 2016 campaign but losing by 80,000 votes out of nearly 7mn cast four years ago.

The focus on the biggest swing state in the campaign’s waning hours is a sign of how the Democratic vice-president and Republican former president are looking for every possible vote in an election that surveys suggest will be decided by a razor-thin margin.

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The Financial Times poll tracker shows the candidates in a statistical tie in all seven swing states, which stretch from the eastern seaboard to the industrial Midwest to the western sunbelt.

Speaking on Monday to volunteers in Scranton, a city in north-eastern Pennsylvania, Harris did not mention Trump by name, but sought to contrast her more optimistic vision for America with his more downbeat view of the country.

“This whole era of this other guy . . . it makes people feel alone. It makes people feel like there is nobody standing with them,” Harris said. “Let’s be intentional about building community . . . about reminding people we have so much more in common than what separates us,” she said.

Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Reading, Pennsylvania © Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

In the campaign’s final days, Democrats have been cheered by what they believe is a decided shift in polling towards Harris — including a surprising lead in a much-watched survey of Iowa that showed her ahead in what many analysts believed was a solid state for Trump. Aides to the former president dismissed the poll as an outlier.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Harris campaign chair, was upbeat about the election’s outcome, saying that “people who are making up their mind are breaking to the vice-president”. She added that a shift was occurring “in all of our battleground states”, especially with core Democratic voter groups such as the young, Black people and Latinos.

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But she acknowledged that the race was so close that the outcome might not be immediately clear. “We may not know the results of this election for several days, but we are very focused on staying calm and confident throughout this period,” she said.

More than 78mn Americans have already voted early, either in person or by mail, according to the leading tracker of pre-election day voting at the University of Florida. At least as many are expected to turn out on election day on Tuesday.

Harris raced across Pennsylvania in her final push on Monday — including two large rallies in the state’s biggest cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia — while Trump stopped at Pittsburgh and Reading, a mid-sized city in south-east Pennsylvania with a large Latino population. He was scheduled to cap off the day with an event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

After being criticised for the violent rhetoric and grievance-filled speeches delivered during his last campaign appearances, Trump on Monday tried to focus on economic issues.

“Under my leadership we are quickly going to turn this economic nightmare into an economic miracle,” he said, adding that he would end “Kamala’s war on energy” by promoting fracking and drilling for fossil fuels.

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Michigan is another of the too-close-to-call swing states. Trump held his final campaign rallies in Grand Rapids in 2016, when he defeated Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he lost his re-election bid to Joe Biden.

The Iowa poll and a handful of other pre-election surveys convinced some investors to pare their bets on a Trump victory, with the dollar weakening and Treasuries rallying on Monday.

The dollar fell 0.5 per cent against a basket of major currencies, putting it on course for its biggest one-day drop since August. The euro was 0.5 per cent higher against the US currency at $1.09. Yields on US government debt, which move inversely to prices, were lower and the Mexico peso strengthened.

Trump’s visit to Reading on Monday could be crucial to his prospects in the state as he seeks to shore up support from Latino voters, particularly those of Puerto Rican heritage, amid an ongoing controversy over a speaker at a recent Trump rally who called the US territory a “floating island of garbage”.

Harris — whose campaign has sought to capitalise on such incendiary comments — also stopped in Reading, visiting a local Puerto Rican restaurant with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic congresswoman, who is of Puerto Rican descent, and with Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s popular Democratic governor.

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Video: America divided: the women who vote for Trump | FT Film

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States and cities beef up security to prepare for potential election-related violence

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States and cities beef up security to prepare for potential election-related violence

People walk past a boarded-up store in downtown Washington, D.C., on Monday. Some areas are preparing for possible election-related violence.

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Some cities and states are preparing for potential election-related violence, though so far, tens of millions of ballots have been cast without serious incident.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee on Friday announced the activation of some members of the state’s National Guard to be on standby status in case they are asked to help local law enforcement. The governor said Guard members could be called on to protect “vital infrastructure” for elections and to “respond to any unrest” related to the election.

Guard members will be on standby status until the end of Thursday, according to the governor’s order. The state’s top military official is determining the number of members needed.

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“This is a purely precautionary measure taken in response to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s nationwide warnings regarding threats to election infrastructure and other recent activities that have occurred in southwestern Washington,” Inslee’s office said in a statement.

Across the river in Portland, Ore., police said they were “increasing staffing on Election Day and the days following as a precaution.” Still, they said they were not aware of any threats related to the election.

The announcements come after ballot drop boxes in Portland and nearby Vancouver, Wash., were set on fire last week. A few ballots were damaged in the Portland drop box, while the fire damaged hundreds of ballots in the Vancouver box. Authorities are still searching for the perpetrator.

In Nevada, Gov. Joe Lombardo’s office said 60 National Guard members would be activated “on standby status” and stationed in Las Vegas and Carson City. He said the activation is similar to that of previous elections. Guard members could be used to help local law enforcement with traffic enforcement and building security, the governor’s office said in a statement.

Lombardo echoed other officials in saying that the activation was only as a precaution.

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In Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Police Chief Pamela Smith said the police will “stand up a full activation,” meaning all police would be working 12-hour shifts “and depending on what happens, maybe a little longer, to ensure that we have enough officers on the street and every corner of our city.” She said the city could call in law enforcement from other jurisdictions for assistance if needed.

Workers erect anti-scale fencing and other security measures around Howard University on Sunday in Washington, D.C. Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will spend election night at her alma mater.

Workers erect anti-scale fencing and other security measures around Howard University on Sunday in Washington, D.C. Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will spend election night at her alma mater.

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Other security measures have been taken throughout the city. Fencing around the White House and the Naval Observatory (which contains the vice president’s residence) was increased. Some businesses near the White House boarded up windows as a precaution, local media reported.

D.C. police announced road closures around Howard University for Vice President Harris’ election night watch party. Extra physical security measures are also being added to the Palm Beach County Convention Center where former President Donald Trump’s campaign will hold its party, the Secret Service said.

“These enhancements are not in response to any specific issue but are part of wide-ranging public safety preparations for Tuesday’s election,” the agency told NPR.

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Three organizations representing sheriffs across the country said in a joint statement last week that they had been preparing for the election for a year and a half. The Major County Sheriffs of America, National Sheriffs’ Association and the Major Cities Chiefs Association said they “stand ready and united to ensure that Election Day 2024 is secure, safe, and fair.”

Despite the lack of widespread violence so far, many people across the country are concerned about the potential. In an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on Monday, 72% of likely voters said they were concerned about violence as a result of the election.

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Trump keeps decrying rampant crime. Here’s how his misleading claim has shifted.

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Trump keeps decrying rampant crime. Here’s how his misleading claim has shifted.

By former President Donald J. Trump’s account, the country is awash in crime. But in fact, under President Biden, the rate of violent crime has fallen.

It is a refrain that dates to Mr. Trump’s first presidential campaign in 2016, when he often cited false statistics to claim historically high murder rates and record-breaking urban crime. After he was elected, those warnings waned, even though the country had its biggest one-year increase in murder in 2020, when he was in office.

Once he lost that election, though, Mr. Trump wasted no time in falsely claiming crime records, saying in a 2022 address that “our country is now a cesspool of crime.”

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In making the case for a second term, Mr. Trump has stuck to that message, though his argument has evolved this election cycle from false claims on crime rates to an attack on the credibility of any evidence that refutes him. Here’s how.

March 2, 2024

Mr. Trump selectively homes in on crime in cities, including at a rally in Greensboro, N.C.

Mr. Trump had a point that violent crime in Washington had increased in 2023. But it was one of few outliers. Violent crime overall decreased across the country by 3 percent, and the number of homicides declined on average by 10 percent across 32 cities tracked by the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice. In Washington and seven other cities, though, the number of homicides increased.

April 13, 2024

Mr. Trump, at a rally in Pennsylvania, falsely balloons the level of crime in New York.

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Crime, in fact, decreased in the year before March 2024 by 5 percent, and murders by 19.4 percent, the city reported just days before Mr. Trump’s remarks. And in 2023, overall crime declined by 0.3 percent and murders by 11.9 percent, to 386 in 2023 from 438 in 2022.

Those numbers also pale in comparison to the height of crime in New York in the 1980s and 1990s, when Mr. Trump was a mainstay of the city and when it regularly recorded more than 1,500 murders annually. Homicides peaked in 1990 at 2,245.

May 18, 2024

As the general election nears, his claims grow more hyperbolic.

“There’s too much crime in the country. We’ve never seen crime like this before.”

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Mr. Trump, in an interview with a Dallas news station, warns more broadly of a nationwide crime wave. That is false. Violent crime and property crime are near the lowest level in decades, despite public perception to the contrary. And while there was an increase in crime during the pandemic, violent crime was higher in 2020 under Mr. Trump than under Mr. Biden so far.

May 18, 2024

That same day, he attributes the increase to Democratic policies.

Speaking to the National Rifle Association, Mr. Trump vividly and baselessly casts blame on his political opponents.

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June 15, 2024

Mr. Trump wrongly blames methodological changes for obscuring crime trends.

The claim, made at a conservative gathering in Detroit, is misleading. Days earlier, the F.B.I. released a preliminary assessment estimating that crime had fallen in the first three months of 2024. But Mr. Trump insisted the data was fraudulent.

In 2021, the F.B.I. started relying on a new data collection system, aggregating crime data from local and state police departments. Many agencies had yet to fully transition, resulting in reporting from only 68 percent of agencies, which covered about 66 percent of the population. So Mr. Trump has a point that data collection in 2021 was unusually incomplete, but the reported national crime rate that year did not simply omit a third of the country, as he said. Rather, the F.B.I. used a standard statistical process to fill in the blanks and estimate crime for the missing jurisdictions to generate a national rate.

The F.B.I.’s national estimates included data from more agencies in subsequent years: 93.5 percent of the population in 2022 and 94.3 percent in 2023. Both years continued to show a decline in crime compared with 2020.

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June 22, 2024

At a rally in Philadelphia, Mr. Trump insists that the official statistics are “fake.”

“The F.B.I. crime statistics Biden is pushing are fake.”

Minutes later, he points to a different data set, also from the Justice Department.

Mr. Trump was cherry-picking those statistics and referring to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey, which showed a 43 percent increase in the violent crime rate, from 16.4 per 1,000 people in 2020 to 23.5 in 2022. (Unlike the F.B.I.’s crime rate, which relies on crimes reported to the police, this rate relies on responses to a survey.)

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Left unsaid: The 2022 rate was comparable to rates under the Trump administration (23.2 in 2018 and 21.0 in 2019) and still lower than rates in the 1990s and 2000s. Moreover, in 2023, that rate declined to 22.5 per 1,000 people.

Aug. 3, 2024

He repeats those percentages during a rally in Atlanta.

“Nationwide, there’s been a 43 percent increase in violent crimes since I left office, including a 58 percent increase in rape, 89 percent increase in aggravated assault and a 56 percent increase in stone-cold robbery.”

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Sept. 6, 2024

Addressing the Fraternal Order of Police union in Charlotte, N.C., he again cites those figures.

“Since Kamala Harris took office, she has presided over a 43 percent increase in violent crime, including a 58 percent increase in rape and an 89 percent increase in aggravated assault.”

Sept. 10, 2024

Mr. Trump reprises his claims during the presidential debate.

Sept. 18, 2024

In a Fox News interview, Mr. Trump inaccurately cites an analysis to claim a huge increase in crime.

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“I was right. The following day, D.O.J. announced numbers — I don’t know who it was in D.O.J., but somebody over there likes me — that crime is up 45 percent, murders up, numbers like you wouldn’t even believe.”

Since the debate, Mr. Trump has seized upon and further inflated an analysis repeated in conservative news outlets of revised F.B.I. statistics.

In its September report estimating that violent crime had declined by 3 percent in 2023, the F.B.I. released revised figures for 2022, as it does every year. The revisions, according to an analysis published by Fox News, show a 4.5 percent increase in violent crime from 2021 to 2022.

But even that 4.5 percent figure is misleading, as FactCheck.org has noted. That is because crime data from 2021 was incomplete, as police departments across the country transitioned to a different reporting system. Moreover, the revised data still show that violent crime had declined overall since 2020.

This dark assessment of soaring violence and lawlessness under Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris has been central to Mr. Trump’s re-election campaign — even though the facts show otherwise.

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Ukraine says it has attacked North Korean troops in Kursk

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Ukraine says it has attacked North Korean troops in Kursk

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Ukrainian officials said on Monday that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers in combat for the first time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk region.

The clashes mark the first direct intervention by a foreign army since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, as well as an expansion of what was already the largest land war in Europe since the second world war.

“The first military units of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] have already come under fire in Kursk,” Andriy Kovalenko, Ukraine’s top counter-disinformation official within the national security council, said on Telegram. A senior Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed the military engagement to the Financial Times but declined to provide further details.

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In Kyiv, foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said he had discussed with his visiting German counterpart Annalena Baerbock the “need for decisive action” in response to North Korea’s deepening involvement in the war.

“We urge Europe to realise that the DPRK troops are now carrying [out] an aggressive war in Europe against a sovereign European state,” Sybiha said in a news conference.

The US on Monday called out Russia and China at the UN Security Council for “shamelessly protecting” and emboldening North Korea. South Korea and the EU also condemned the deployment and expressed concern that Russia could reward North Korea with transfers of nuclear and ballistic technology.

Another senior Ukrainian official told the FT that Moscow was already providing military technologies to Pyongyang to help with its missile programmes, as well as “money”.

In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son-hui, in the Kremlin on Monday.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korean foreign minister Choe Son-hui meet at the Kremlin on Monday © Mikhael Tereshchenko/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Choe passed on a greeting from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who has backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and signed a treaty with Putin in June that includes a mutual security assistance clause.

The foreign minister last week said that North Korea had “no doubt whatsoever that under the wise leadership of the honourable Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian army and people will surely achieve a great victory in their sacred struggle to defend the sovereign rights and security of their state”.

Putin has not confirmed the North Korean deployment but he hinted at it last month, indicating it fell under the security provisions in the treaty.

US and South Korean officials last week confirmed Ukraine’s assessment that around 8,000 North Korean troops were sent to Kursk last month to help Russia’s army push Ukrainian forces out of territory they have occupied since August. Senior Ukrainian intelligence officials told the FT that the forces were in barracks about 50km from the Ukrainian border and preparing to enter the fight within “days”.

Kyiv, Washington and Seoul said that Pyongyang had sent roughly 12,000 troops in all to Russia for its ongoing war effort, including 500 officers and three generals. The remaining forces are located in Russia’s far east, where they are undergoing training.

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The White House has said that the North Koreans would become “legitimate military targets” if they entered the fight against Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that Ukraine could see where Russia was gathering the North Koreans and urged western nations to lift restrictions on long-range weapons to “pre-emptively” strike them before they could attack his forces.

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The senior Ukrainian intelligence official declined to provide specifics about the first military engagement between his country’s forces and the North Koreans. But he said that it occurred within Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine controls some 600 sq km of territory, or a little more than half of what it previously held following the summer incursion that took Moscow by surprise.

Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, the GUR, said over the weekend that Russia had armed the North Korean troops in Kursk with 60mm mortars, assault rifles, machine guns, sniper rifles, anti-tank guided missiles and shoulder-launched anti-tank rocket launchers. The GUR said that some were also provided with night-vision devices and thermal imagers. A few hundred troops from North Korea’s special forces have also been deployed in Kursk.

Ukrainian officials and military analysts have raised questions about the quality and combat effectiveness of the North Korean troops, with most being described as inexperienced, low-ranking soldiers.

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“We will know soon” how well they can fight, said one of the officials on Monday.

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