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China’s population is shrinking. The impact will be felt around the world | CNN

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China’s population is shrinking. The impact will be felt around the world | CNN


Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

China could also be one step nearer to shedding its place because the world’s most populous nation to India after its inhabitants shrank for the primary time because the Sixties.

The nation’s inhabitants fell in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 folks from the earlier yr, China’s Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) introduced throughout a Tuesday briefing on annual information.

The final time China’s inhabitants decreased was in 1961, throughout a famine that killed tens of tens of millions of individuals throughout the nation.

This time, a mixture of things are behind the drop: the far-reaching penalties of the one-child coverage China launched within the Nineteen Eighties (however has since deserted); altering attitudes towards marriage and household amongst Chinese language youth; entrenched gender inequality and the challenges of elevating kids in China’s costly cities.

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Specialists warn that, if sustained, the pattern may additionally pose an issue for the remainder of the world, with China enjoying a key position in driving international progress because the second-largest economic system.

A falling inhabitants is more likely to exacerbate China’s issues with an growing older workforce and drag on progress, including to its woes because it struggles to get better from the pandemic.

The inhabitants decline is partially a results of China’s one-child coverage, which for greater than 35 years restricted {couples} to solely having one youngster. Girls caught going towards the coverage have been typically topic to pressured abortions, heavy fines, and eviction.

Alarmed by the falling delivery charge in recent times, the federal government scrapped the rule. In 2015, it allowed {couples} to have two kids, and in 2021 raised this to 3. However the coverage change and different authorities efforts, equivalent to providing monetary incentives, have had little impact – for numerous causes.

Excessive residing and training prices and skyrocketing property costs are main elements. Many individuals – particularly in cities – face stagnating wages, fewer job alternatives, and grueling work hours that make it each tough and costly to lift one youngster, not to mention three.

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These points are exacerbated by entrenched gender roles that always place the majority of home tasks and youngster care on girls – who, extra educated and financially impartial than ever, are more and more unwilling to bear this unequal burden. Girls have additionally reported dealing with discrimination at work based mostly on their marital or parental standing, with employers typically reluctant to pay maternity go away.

Some cities and provinces have begun introducing measures equivalent to paternity go away and expanded youngster care providers. However many activists and ladies say it’s removed from sufficient.

And frustrations solely grew in the course of the pandemic, with a disenchanted youthful technology whose livelihoods and wellbeing have been derailed by China’s uncompromising zero-Covid coverage.

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Hear mother and father in China react to new three-child coverage

A falling inhabitants is probably going so as to add to the demographic issues China is already dealing with. The nation’s inhabitants is already growing older and its workforce shrinking, putting super stress on the youthful technology.

China’s aged now make up almost a fifth of its inhabitants, officers mentioned Tuesday. Some consultants warn the nation might be heading down an identical path to Japan, which entered three many years of financial stagnation within the early Nineties that coincided with its growing older demographics.

“The Chinese language economic system is coming into a essential transition part, not in a position to depend on an ample, cost-competitive labor power to drive industrialization and progress,” mentioned HSBC chief Asia economist Frederic Neumann.

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“As the availability of staff begins to shrink, productiveness progress might want to decide as much as maintain the economic system’s heady tempo of growth.”

China’s economic system is already in hassle, increasing by simply 3% in 2022 – one of many worst performances in almost half a century, because of months of Covid lockdowns and a historic downturn within the property market.

The shrinking workforce may make restoration much more difficult as China resumes outward journey and abandons lots of the stringent restrictions it has upheld for the previous few years.

There are social implications, too. China’s social safety system is more likely to come below pressure as there shall be fewer staff to fund issues like pensions and well being care – as demand for these providers surges because of the graying inhabitants.

There may even be fewer folks to take care of the aged, with many younger folks already working to assist their mother and father and two units of grandparents.

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China elderly population

China’s senior residents danger being left behind

Given its position in driving the worldwide economic system, China’s challenges may have implications for the remainder of the world.

The pandemic has illustrated how China’s home issues can have an effect on the circulation of commerce and funding, with its lockdowns and border controls disrupting provide chains.

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Not solely would a slowing Chinese language economic system drag on international progress, it may threaten China’s ambitions of overtaking the USA because the world’s largest economic system.

“China’s restricted skill to react to this demographic shift will probably result in slower progress outcomes within the subsequent twenty to thirty years and affect its skill to compete on the world stage with the USA,” the US-based Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research mentioned in an article on its web site final August.

China additionally appears probably this yr to lose its place because the world’s most populous nation to India, whose inhabitants and economic system are each booming.

“India is the largest winner,” tweeted Yi Fuxian, who research Chinese language demographics on the College of Wisconsin-Madison.

Nonetheless, whereas Yi mentioned India’s economic system may someday surpass the US, it has some method to go but. India is the world’s fifth-largest economic system, having overtaking the UK final yr, and a few consultants have voiced concern the nation isn’t creating sufficient employment alternatives to maintain up with its increasing workforce.

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Nonetheless, some researchers say there might be a silver lining to the information from China.

“For each local weather change and the atmosphere, a smaller inhabitants is a profit not a curse,” tweeted Mary Gallagher, director of the Worldwide Institute on the College of Michigan.

Peter Kalmus, a local weather scientist at NASA, argued that inhabitants decline shouldn’t be considered “as a horrible factor,” pointing as an alternative to “exponentially accelerating international heating and biodiversity loss.”

Chinese language officers have ramped up efforts to encourage bigger households, together with by a multi-agency plan launched final yr to strengthen maternity go away and supply tax deductions and different perks to households.

Chinese language chief Xi Jinping pledged in October to “enhance the inhabitants growth technique” and ease financial stress on households.

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“[We will] set up a coverage system to spice up delivery charges, and convey down the prices of being pregnant and childbirth, youngster rearing, and education,” Xi mentioned. “We’ll pursue a proactive nationwide technique in response to inhabitants growing older, develop aged care packages and providers, and supply higher providers for aged individuals who dwell alone.”

Some locations are even providing money incentives to encourage extra births. One village in southern Guangdong province introduced in 2021 it could pay everlasting residents with infants below 2 and a half years outdated as much as $510 a month – which may add as much as greater than $15,000 in whole per youngster. Different locations have provided actual property subsidies for {couples} with a number of kids.

However these efforts have but to see outcomes, with many consultants and residents saying way more sweeping nationwide reforms are wanted. After Tuesday’s information broke, a hashtag went viral on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform: “To encourage childbirth, it’s essential to first clear up the troubles of younger folks.”

“Our salaries are so low, whereas hire is so excessive and monetary stress so heavy. My future husband will work additional time till 3 a.m. daily till the top of the yr,” one Weibo person wrote. “My survival and well being are already issues, not to mention having kids.”

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Joe Biden to raise solar import tariffs in bid to protect US industry

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Joe Biden to raise solar import tariffs in bid to protect US industry

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Joe Biden is set to impose tariffs on double-sided solar panel imports, as the president moves to protect US clean energy manufacturers and boost jobs ahead of November’s election.

US officials said the move would immediately end an exemption from Trump-era tariffs on imports of a type of panel unit often used in large solar projects, one of the fastest-growing forms of clean energy in the country. They will now attract a tariff rate of 14.25 per cent.

The steeper levy marks the latest protectionist move by the president, who is competing with Republican rival Donald Trump to court blue-collar voters in US manufacturing heartlands, with less than six months to go until the election.

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On Tuesday, Biden sharply increased tariffs on Chinese imports including electric vehicles and solar cells, deepening trade tensions with Beijing and thrusting trade policy to the centre of the election battle.

US officials have warned that China is producing more goods than its own market can absorb, triggering fears that Beijing could use cheap exports to undercut producers in other countries.

Ali Zaidi, Biden’s climate adviser, said the US solar “investment boom” was threatened by “unfair and non-market practices taking place overseas”. 

“The Chinese solar panel overcapacity, now projected to be double world demand, threatens to undercut panel manufacturing and solar supply chains around the world,” Zaidi said.

The announcement from the Biden administration comes as US imports of cheap solar panels and cells, largely from south-east Asia, have soared to record highs. An overproduction of solar panels from China has led to a collapse in global panel prices, threatening US manufacturing plans.

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The US imported 55 gigawatts of panels and 3.8GW of solar cells in 2023, with more than three-quarters of cell imports coming from Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam, according to BloombergNEF.

Alongside the new tariff on double-sided panels, the US is also offering some relief to domestic developers still reliant on imported cells — the units that make up panels — by increasing the amount that can be imported without levies from 5GW to 12.GW.

While some companies have announced their intent to open solar cell factories since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act — aimed at boosting the domestic clean energy industry, among other goals — the US does not have any manufacturing capacity in operation.

The relief applies to cells imported from Asian countries except China, whose cell exports to the US face a 50 per cent tariff under the new regime announced on Tuesday.

“We know that the process of onshoring, friendshoring and frankly just diversifying the supply chains is not one that can be executed overnight,” said Zaidi.

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Raising the quota would ensure manufacturers in the US would have solar cells available to them and would support expanded US solar manufacturing, he added. 

US manufacturers including First Solar and Heliene had called for the US International Trade Commission to remove the tariff exemption for double-sided panels.

But the increase in the cell quota could anger large US manufacturers that make their own cells, including First Solar and Qcells, which have petitioned for antidumping duties on south-east Asian solar cells.

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Authorities seek public's help identifying baby abandoned in shopping cart at Lomita business

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Authorities seek public's help identifying baby abandoned in shopping cart at Lomita business

LOMITA, Calif. (KABC) — Authorities are asking for the public’s help in identifying a baby who was left at a business in Lomita.

A photo of the child was released, along with a surveillance image of an unidentified pregnant woman who authorities say abandoned the infant inside the store.

The child is believed to be seven to nine months old.

Deputies responded around 5 p.m. Tuesday to a business in the 2000 block of Pacific Coast Highway. When they arrived, a store employee told them a pregnant woman with a baby had entered the store and asked for a taxi.

The woman went to the bathroom as the employee arranged for a taxi. When the taxi arrived, authorities say the woman got in the car and left the child behind in a shopping cart.

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The woman’s whereabouts are unknown, and the child is in the care of the Department of Children and Family Services, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department.

Anyone with information is asked to contact the Lomita Sheriff’s Station at 310-539-1661. Anonymous tips can be made by calling Crime Stoppers at 800 222-8477.

Copyright © 2024 KABC Television, LLC. All rights reserved.

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When the customer is not always right

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When the customer is not always right

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One of the world’s best known luxury brands recently conducted a survey of its global store network, sending local platoons of secret shoppers to assess the level of customer service. Despite their stellar reputation, the outlets in Japan fared dismally.

“The problem was not the service. It was the shoppers,” relates the senior director in charge. “In reality, we knew the service in our Japan stores was by far the best anywhere in the world, but the Japanese customers that we sent found faults that nobody else on earth would see.”

Many will see an enviable virtuous circle in this tale — a parable of what happens when a service culture seems genuinely enthusiastic about and responsive to the idea that the customer is always right. High service standards have begotten high expectations, and who would see downside in this?

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The trouble is that, in Japan as elsewhere in the world, the “customer is always right” mantra is having a bit of a wobble. Perhaps existentially so.  

The concept has always come with pretty serious caveats; fuller versions of the (variously attributed) original quote qualify it with clauses like “in matters of taste” that shift the meaning. But in a tetchier, shorter-fused world the caveats are multiplying.

Japan’s current experience deserves attention. After many decades at the extreme end of deifying the customer (Japanese companies across all industries routinely refer to clients as kamisama, or “god”), there is now an emerging vocabulary for expressing a healthy measure of atheism. 

The term “customer harassment” has, over the past few years, entered the Japanese public sphere to describe the sort of entitled verbal abuse, threats, tantrums, aggression and physical violence inflicted by customers on workers in retail, restaurants, transport, hotels and other parts of the customer-facing service economy. One recurrent complaint has been customers demanding that staff kneel on the floor to atone for a given infraction.

However tame these incidents may appear in relative terms — comparing them with often violent equivalents in other countries — the perception of a sharp increase in frequency means the phenomenon is being treated as a scourge. The Japanese government is now planning a landmark revision of labour law to require companies to protect their staff from customer rage.

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The real breakthrough, though, lies in legislating the idea that customers can be wrong — a concept that could prove more broadly liberating.

Luxury goods and virtuous circles aside, customer infallibility has not necessarily been the optimal guiding principle for Japan, and is arguably even less so now that demographics are squeezing the ability to deliver the same levels of service as before. Excessive deference to customers came, during the country’s long battle with deflation, to border on outright fear that the slightest mis-step risked losing them forever.

So much deference was paid to the customer that companies were reluctant to raise prices even as they themselves bore the cost of maintaining high standards of service. Japan, during its deflationary phase, became one of the great pioneers of product shrinkflation: a phenomenon that, from some angles, made deference to customers look a lot like contempt for their powers of observation.

Perhaps the biggest dent left by Japan’s superior standards of service, though, has been the chronic misallocation of resources. The fabulous but labour-intensive service that nobody here wants to see evaporating has come at a steadily rising cost to other industries in terms of hogging precious workers. That has become more evident as the working-age population begins to shrink and other parts of the economy make more urgent or attractive demands. As with any large-scale reordering, the process will be painful.

Worldwide, though, the sternest challenge to the customer is always right mantra arises from its implication of imbalance. Even if the phrase is not used literally, it creates a subservience that seems ever more anachronistic. In a research paper published last month, Melissa Baker and Kawon Kim linked a general rise in customer incivility and workplace mental health issues to the customer is right mindset. “This phrase leads to inequity between employees and customers as employees must simply deal with misbehaving customers who feel they can do anything, even if it is rude, uncivil and causes increased vulnerability,” they wrote.

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Japan may yet be some way from letting service standards slip very far. It may be very close, though, to deciding that customers can have rights, without being right.

leo.lewis@ft.com

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