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China and US push each other on priorities for UN COP29 climate talks

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China and US push each other on priorities for UN COP29 climate talks

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Washington’s top climate diplomat John Podesta has pressed Chinese leaders to come up with ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 in one of the final meetings between the world’s two largest polluters ahead of the UN COP29 climate summit in November. 

Podesta visited China last week along with other US officials for meetings with his Chinese counterpart Liu Zhenmin and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, as well as other ministries involved in climate and the environment.

They discussed their fresh targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, as well as climate finance — both expected to be central to wider UN climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, later this year. 

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The UN summit will start soon after the US presidential election, with preparations being made in the shadow of a threat by Donald Trump to withdraw from global climate action were he to win.

Chinese state media reported after the Podesta meetings that Beijing had called on Washington “to maintain consistency with policies and make concerted efforts with China to cope with global challenges”.

A readout from the state department said the two sides discussed their efforts to tackle methane and nitrous oxide emissions, both powerful non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, and committed to holding a summit on the topic as part of the Baku talks. Curbing these emissions is regarded as among the cheapest and fastest ways of limiting global warming in the near term.

China is the world’s largest polluter on an annual basis, contributing about 30 per cent of emissions, but has also led the world in deploying renewable energy and had met its 2030 renewable targets by this year.

By some estimates, China’s greenhouse gas emissions may have also peaked this year, in part because of an economic and property slowdown which has suppressed energy demand and the carbon-heavy production of steel and cement. Views differ on whether this represents a long-term decline, and how much future demand will rely on the rollout of new coal-fired power plants.

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The country is also suffering from climate change, with the Chinese Meteorological Administration reporting last week that the average temperature in August was the hottest in six decades at 22.6C, or 1.5 C higher than last year. “Frequent and highly destructive rainstorms [and] large scale heatwaves,” were reported.

The trip to Beijing was Podesta’s first since taking over as Washington’s chief climate diplomat after John Kerry stepped down last year. It comes just months before countries convene for COP29, where both the US and China will be critical to any deal. 

At COP28 in Dubai almost 200 countries agreed to move away from fossil fuels “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” to reach net zero emissions by 2050. However, in the recent Bonn climate talks, countries struggled to make further progress.

Under a road map set out in the UN process, this year countries must also agree on replacing a $100bn annual goal to help developing countries tackle climate change. So far, participants have disagreed over what sources of finance should be included, and who should contribute. 

Developing countries maintain that the developed world, which historically had caused the greatest emissions, should be held financially responsible for damages from climate change.

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Richer, western countries say that wealthier developing nations, such as China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India and Brazil, should also contribute towards a global fund.

Another priority in Baku will be talks on carbon market principles.

Climate Capital

Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore the FT’s coverage here.

Are you curious about the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Find out more about our science-based targets here

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How Trump and Harris are preparing for their first debate of 2024

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How Trump and Harris are preparing for their first debate of 2024

Washington — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are set to face off for the first time this week as Election Day quickly approaches — with the race upended since the last debate matchup between Trump and President Biden.

Hosted by ABC News at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, the debate could be the only time Trump and Harris go head to head on the debate stage.

Tuesday’s debate follows weeks of back and forth over whether the matchup would occur — and under what terms. Though the president and former president agreed in May to participate in two presidential debates, one hosted by CNN in June and another hosted by ABC in September, the second debate was thrown into question once Mr. Biden left the race in July. 

Trump suggested on multiple occasions that he would not participate at all, criticizing the network. But after Harris baited the former president, accusing him of “backpedaling” on the debate, Trump agreed to the Sept. 10 matchup, while proposing additional debates on Fox and NBC News. Harris only agreed to the ABC debate.

What we know about the debate structure so far

This combination photo shows former President Donald Trump at an event in New Jersey on Aug. 15, 2024, and Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign event in North Carolina on Aug. 16, 2024.
This combination photo shows former President Donald Trump at an event in New Jersey on Aug. 15, 2024, and Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign event in North Carolina on Aug. 16, 2024.

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AP


Tuesday’s 90-minute debate, which will be moderated by ABC anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis, will take place without an audience. It’s also expected to feature two commercial breaks, when campaign staff will not be allowed to interact with the candidates, among other rules that mirror the rules at the CNN debate.

During the debate, the candidates will have two minutes to answer questions and for rebuttals, along with an extra minute for follow-ups, clarifications or responses, ABC outlined. No props or pre-written notes are permitted onstage. 

The candidates will have two minutes to deliver closing statements, and Trump will deliver the final statement after winning a coin toss, ABC said. There will be no opening statements. 

Candidates’ microphones will only be live when it’s their turn to speak, an issue that the two sides have been at odds over for weeks. While the Harris campaign argued that both candidates’ microphones should be on throughout the debate, Trump said his campaign agreed to the same rules regarding microphones in place for the first presidential debate. The Harris campaign ultimately agreed to have the microphones muted when a candidate isn’t speaking, although the campaign said a pool of reporters will be present and will be able to hear what a muted candidate may be trying to say. 

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The Harris campaign wrote in a letter to ABC obtained by CBS News that the vice president “will be fundamentally disadvantaged by this format,” while noting that the campaign accepted the terms so as not to “jeopardize the debate” from occurring. 

How Donald Trump is preparing for the debate

Heading into the debate, both Trump and Harris highlighted their policy platforms on the campaign trail in battleground states throughout the country, where they remained locked in a close race with fewer than 60 days before Election Day. Trump campaigned in North Carolina and Wisconsin in recent days. 

The former president has been reviewing policy positions with advisors in the lead up to the debate, sources familiar with the former president’s preparation told CBS News, though his preparations are characterized as somewhat informal and include speaking with voters and engaging with the media. 

Trump told “Good Morning New Hampshire” last week that he’s “been preparing all my life for this debate.”

“So, you know, I do. I have meetings on it,” Trump added. “We talk about it, but there’s not a lot you can do.”

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How Kamala Harris is preparing for the debate

Harris traveled to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Thursday to prepare for the presidential debate, according to campaign officials and advisers to the vice president. She is set to remain in the area until Tuesday’s debate.

The vice president and her team have used the time to go back to the drawing board on their debate strategy, a senior campaign official told CBS News, after the decision was made to keep candidates’ microphones muted during the debate when they aren’t speaking. While Harris had planned to pepper Trump with questions, her campaign has had to seek out a new approach, fearing that her ability to most effectively engage with the former president will be hampered by the microphone restrictions. 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was involved in Harris’ debate preparations against former Vice President Mike Pence in 2020, praised Harris’ debate skills and intellect on Sunday, telling CNN’s “State of the Union” that “she is a very focused and disciplined leader.” But he noted that “it will take almost superhuman focus and discipline to deal with Donald Trump in a debate.”

“It’s no ordinary proposition, not because Donald Trump is a master of explaining policy ideas and how they’re going to make people better off,” Buttigieg said. “It’s because he’s a master of taking any form or format that is on television and turning it into a show that is all about him.” 

When and how to watch the presidential debate

The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 10. CBS will have coverage beginning at 8 p.m. ET. Find your local CBS station here or tune into CBS News 24/7. 

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,

Aaron Navarro,

,

Melissa Quinn,

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,

Weijia Jiang and

Ed O’Keefe

contributed to this report.

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Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate

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Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

• Interviewers spoke with 1,695 registered voters across the country from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed nearly 194,000 calls to nearly 104,000 voters.

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• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The poll’s margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

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The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 registered voters nationwide, including 1,374 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for registered voters. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for registered voters.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

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Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 15 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 23 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

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The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

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• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

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• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

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• Census tract educational attainment

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

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Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.38 for the likely electorate and 1.21 for registered voters. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.43 for the likely electorate and 1.26 for registered voters.

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Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

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Kamala Harris faces crucial debate as polls hint at slipping momentum

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Kamala Harris faces crucial debate as polls hint at slipping momentum

Kamala Harris is under pressure to put on a strong performance in the debate against Donald Trump next week after polling suggested her momentum in the presidential contest could be fading.

The clash in Philadelphia on Tuesday night will be the first between Harris and Trump and may be the last: no other debates have been scheduled before the November vote between the two rivals for the White House.

Both campaigns know that the face-off could be a new inflection point in a 2024 race that has already featured a succession of sudden twists, starting with the dramatic implosion of Joe Biden’s re-election bid following his disastrous June debate against Trump.

Harris will be more in the spotlight, since she is less known than Trump to American voters. According to the FT’s national poll tracker, her lead in the contest has shrunk slightly to 2.9 percentage points in recent weeks, suggesting she received no extra boost from the Democratic convention in Chicago. The closely watched national New York Times-Siena poll released on Sunday showed Trump ahead by 1 percentage point, meaning the race is essentially tied.

Democrats say Harris faces the challenge of introducing herself to Americans who are unfamiliar with her policies but are open to voting for her.

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“I think that if Harris shows that she can do in an impromptu environment what she’s done successfully in a relatively scripted way, that will help her — if not decisively, then substantially” said Matt Bennett, a Democratic strategist at Third Way, the centre-left think-tank.

“The problem for Harris is that expectations of Trump are so low. He is always chaotic. He is always bombastic, and he’s going to be that.”

Paul Begala, the veteran Democratic strategist, says a top priority for Harris will be to “define herself as change”. He also said the vice-president needed to “prosecute Trump rather than defend Biden” and “show her youth, vigour, new ideas and cast Trump as old, stale, backward looking”.

Harris chose to prepare for the debate at a hotel in downtown Pittsburgh, the industrial city in western Pennsylvania that could be crucial to the outcome of the election.

While she has given few hints of how she will approach Trump, on a visit to a spice shop on Saturday Harris said she was ready for the showdown. Her message on Tuesday would be that “it’s time to turn the page on the divisiveness, it’s time to bring our country together [and] chart a new way forward,” she told the small crowd.

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But even though Harris is known for being a good debater, Ed Rendell, the former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, said taking on Trump would not be simple and she must not allow herself to be provoked.

“She basically needs to ignore him. Don’t let him get her goat. Don’t let him fluster her,” he said. “[But] when he is saying rude or ridiculous things, give it to him”.

Rendell added: “Voters want to see, especially with a woman candidate, they want to see a woman who can handle herself, who isn’t going to get cowed, who isn’t going to get bowled over”.

Trump is said to have enlisted Matt Gaetz, the hardline Florida Republican congressman, and Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic congresswoman, for help in preparing for the debate.

As he often does, Trump has been attacking the hosts of the event at ABC News, suggesting they would be biased against him. He has also resisted a push by Harris to allow microphones to be open throughout the debate, rather than muted when the other candidate is speaking.

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But Trump is not doing what mainstream Republicans and party strategists say he should, which is to focus on issues like inflation and immigration where they believe Harris is vulnerable.

On Friday, he called a press conference in New York City but failed to take questions and spent the time railing against his legal troubles and even criticising his own lawyers. After a rally in Wisconsin on Saturday evening, he went on social media to deliver a threat to seek long prison sentences for “those people that cheated” in the counting of the votes in this year’s election.

Harris is not underestimating Trump, however. “We fully expect Donald Trump is going to be ready for the debate, he’s a showman,” said one of the vice-president’s campaign aides, noting that this would be his seventh general election presidential debate, compared to Harris’ first.

Her aim would be to show a clear contrast for voters, the aide said.

“The goal of this debate is to see the choice between vice-president Harris, who is going to set out a vision to make our lives better, to increase economic opportunity, protect our freedoms, and Trump, who is going to be pushing a dark, backwards looking agenda and is only focused on himself,” the aide said.

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Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist at Penta Group, said that Harris “still largely remains a blank slate for a lot of voters”.

“Can she offer a concrete vision for the future? Can she define her candidacy beyond the shadow of being Biden’s vice-president?”

Amy Walter, the top political analyst at the non-partisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, wrote in a note this month that “for Harris, success means reassuring swing voters that she isn’t as ‘extreme’ or ‘radically liberal’ as Trump and his allies have suggested”.

“There’s little chance that voters’ opinions of Trump will change. Instead, the big question is whether it impacts the way voters perceive Harris”.

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