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C.I.A. Now Favors Lab Leak Theory to Explain Covid’s Origins

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C.I.A. Now Favors Lab Leak Theory to Explain Covid’s Origins

The C.I.A. has said for years that it did not have enough information to conclude whether the Covid pandemic emerged naturally from a wet market in Wuhan, China, or from an accidental leak at a research lab there.

But the agency issued a new assessment this week, with analysts saying they now favor the lab theory.

That shift is based on “the available body of reporting,” although the other theory remains plausible, a spokeswoman for the agency said, adding that the agency will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting.

Some American officials say the debate matters little: The Chinese government failed to either regulate its markets or oversee its labs. But others argue it is an important intelligence and scientific question.

John Ratcliffe, the new director of the C.I.A., has long favored the lab leak hypothesis. He has said it is a critical piece of intelligence that needs to be understood and that it has consequences for U.S.-Chinese relations.

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The announcement of the shift came shortly after Mr. Ratcliffe told Breitbart News he no longer wanted the agency “on the sidelines” of the debate over the origins of the Covid pandemic. Mr. Ratcliffe has long said he believes that the virus most likely emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Officials said the agency was not bending its views to a new boss, and that the new assessment had been in the works for some time.

In the final weeks of the Biden administration, Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, ordered a new classified review of the pandemic’s origin. As part of that review, the agency’s previous director, William J. Burns, told analysts that they needed to take a position on the origins of Covid, though he was agnostic on which theory they should embrace, a senior U.S. intelligence official said.

Another senior U.S. official said it was Mr. Ratcliffe’s decision to declassify and release the new analysis.

There is no new intelligence behind the agency’s shift. Rather it is based on the same evidence it has been chewing over for months.

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The analysis, however, is based in part on a closer look at the conditions in the high security labs in Wuhan province before the pandemic outbreak, according to people familiar with the agency’s work.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, questions have swirled around whether the two labs handling coronaviruses in Wuhan had followed safety protocols strictly enough.

The agency made its new assessment with “low confidence,” which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and contradictory.

Even in the absence of hard intelligence, the lab leak hypothesis has been gaining ground inside spy agencies. But some analysts question the wisdom of shifting a position in absence of new information.

Former officials say they are not averse to a new examination of the Covid origins intelligence by the Trump administration. President Biden ordered a new review of the intelligence early in his administration after officials told the White House they had still-unexamined evidence.

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Mr. Ratcliffe has raised questions about politicization in the intelligence agencies. Mr. Ratcliffe, who was the director of national intelligence in the first Trump administration, argued in an essay for Fox News in 2023 that the C.I.A. did not want to embrace the lab leak to avoid geopolitical problems for the Biden administration.

“The real problem is, the only assessment the agency could make — which is that a virus that killed over a million Americans originated in a C.C.P.-controlled lab whose research included work for the Chinese military — has enormous geopolitical implications that the Biden administration does not want to face head-on,” he said in the piece, which was written with Cliff Sims, a top aide. C.C.P. refers to China’s Communist Party.

Mr. Ratcliffe said on Thursday, when he was sworn in, that a look at the origins of Covid was a “Day 1” priority.

“I think our intelligence, our science and our common sense all really dictate that the origins of Covid was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” he told Breitbart. “But the C.I.A. has not made that assessment or at least not made that assessment publicly. So I’m going to focus on that and look at the intelligence and make sure that the public is aware that the agency is going to get off the sidelines.”

Senior intelligence officials in the Biden administration defend their process and methodology. They have said that no intelligence was suppressed and insist that politics did not play into their analysis.

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These officials say that there are powerful logical arguments for both the lab leak and the natural causes theories, but that there simply is no decisive piece of intelligence on either side of the issue.

To boost the natural origins theory, intelligence officers would like to find the animal that passed it to a human or find a bat carrying what was the likely ancestor of the coronavirus that causes Covid.

Similarly, to seal the lab leak, the intelligence community would like to find evidence that one of the labs in Wuhan was working on a progenitor virus that directly led to the epidemic.

Neither piece of evidence has been found.

But Mr. Ratcliffe has promised a more aggressive C.I.A., and it is possible that he will order more actions to penetrate the labs in Wuhan or the Chinese government in a search for information.

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It will not be an easy secret to steal. The senior ranks of the Chinese government do not know, and do not want to know, American officials have said. So if there is intelligence, it is probably hidden in a place that is hard to get to.

Intelligence officials interviewed in recent weeks say it is possible that such a piece of evidence exists in a lab in China, at least in theory. But, they said, it is still more likely that the answers to questions surrounding the virus’s origins will come through a scientific breakthrough, not an intelligence revelation.

Under the Biden administration, the intelligence community leaned toward the theory that the virus came from the market. But officials readily admitted it was hardly a sure thing.

Five agencies, including the National Intelligence Council and the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed that natural exposure most likely caused the epidemic. But they said that they had only low-confidence in their assessment.

Until now, two agencies, the F.B.I. and Department of Energy, thought a lab leak was more likely. But their theories are different. The F.B.I. believes the virus came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Energy Department put its bet on another lab, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control.

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Officials would not say if the C.I.A. believes one lab or the other was the more likely source of the virus.

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Trump Says He Wants Jordan and Egypt to Take in Palestinians From Gaza

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Trump Says He Wants Jordan and Egypt to Take in Palestinians From Gaza

President Trump said he told King Abdullah II of Jordan during a phone call Saturday that he would like Jordan and Egypt to take in more Palestinians from Gaza, an idea that is likely to reignite debate about the future of nearly two million Palestinians.

“I said to him, ‘I’d love for you to take on more because I’m looking at the whole Gaza Strip right now, and it’s a mess,’” Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One. He added that he would also like Egypt to take in more Palestinians and that he would speak to the country’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, on Sunday.

Mr. Trump made the remarks on an evening flight after a rally in Las Vegas; it is unclear whether they signal a change in U.S. policy toward Palestinians.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have started returning to their homes as the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel enters a second week. It is only the second pause in fighting between the two since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas led an attack on Israel that killed more than 1,200 Israelis. Since then, Israel’s military has killed at least 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gazan health officials who do not distinguish between combatants and civilians. It has also destroyed thousands of homes and buildings in Gaza and killed many of Hamas’s leaders.

Most of the two million Palestinians in Gaza have had to flee their homes at least once. And though aid in recent days has increased, the humanitarian situation remains dire, with water, food and medicine running low and few working hospitals left.

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“You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing,” Mr. Trump said of Gaza. “I don’t know. Something has to happen, but it’s literally a demolition site right now.”

Millions of Palestinian refugees are living in camps in Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and a few other countries in the Middle East. Since the start of the war, Egypt has said that it will not take in any more Palestinian refugees, and that any attempt to force Palestinians into their territory risks agreements that it has with Israel.

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Rachel Reeves to tell Labour MPs to back growth strategy

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Rachel Reeves to tell Labour MPs to back growth strategy

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Rachel Reeves will on Monday call on sceptical Labour MPs to back her plans to boost the UK economy, including a highly contentious proposal to expand Heathrow airport.

The chancellor is facing criticism from some in her party for allegedly siding with business over consumers and for backing a third runway at Britain’s busiest airport, amid fears it could hit the government’s environmental objectives.

But Reeves will seek to face down her critics when she meets the Parliamentary Labour party on Monday, telling MPs that without growth she will be unable to fund the improvements to public services they want.

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Reeves, who met investors at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, will also spend the next two days meeting chief executives in an attempt to persuade them that she has a credible growth strategy.

Many business leaders fear her policies have contributed to a stagnating economy.

On Sunday Reeves in effect confirmed that she would endorse the construction of a third runway at Heathrow when she makes a “growth” speech on Wednesday, insisting the aviation industry was becoming greener.

Asked about claims by London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan that the policy would hit clean air and net zero targets, Reeves said: “A lot has changed in terms of aviation.”

Heathrow expansion is opposed by London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan and environmental groups © Peter MacDiarmid/Shutterstock

She told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that more sustainable aviation fuels were becoming available, and that “a third runway will mean that instead of circling London, flights can land at Heathrow”.

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Reeves said she had already agreed the expansion of London City and Stansted airports and she is also expected on Wednesday to approve expansion at Gatwick and Luton, marking a huge expansion of London airport capacity.

A third runway was first proposed by the last Labour government in 2003 on economic grounds, but subsequent Conservative administrations tried and failed to progress the scheme.

Khan and environmental groups have long opposed it, citing the UK’s legally binding target to reach net zero carbon emissions. But this week energy secretary Ed Miliband, who threatened to resign over the issue during Gordon Brown’s government, said he would not quit his role if the third runway was approved.

Paul McGuinness, chair of the No Third Runway Coalition, said: Expansions at other London airports undermine the case for Heathrow’s uniquely complicated and costly third runway, making it an even riskier, if not uninvestable proposition.”

Left-wing Labour MPs are also worried that Reeves is tilting the regulatory landscape in favour of big business and away from consumers, with one saying: “She’s throwing herself at big corporations.”

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But the chancellor insisted on Sunday that without some radical changes Britain would have inadequate growth and that the government would fail to meet its target of 1.5mn new homes in this parliament.

“Too often the answer to new development has been ‘no’. But that is the attitude that has stunted economic growth and left working people worse off,” she said. “I don’t believe low growth is our destiny.”

Reeves announced new plans to speed up the construction of new homes near commuter train stations, as part of reforms under a new planning and infrastructure bill.

The Treasury said the new rules would ensure that when developers submit an application for acceptable types of schemes in key areas — such as near commuter transport hubs — the default answer would be “yes”.

CGI images of the Old Trafford redevelopment
CGI images of the Old Trafford redevelopment © Manchester United

Reeves also backed a regeneration project around Old Trafford in Manchester, which has been championed by Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

The Treasury said it would see “new housing, commercial and public space as a shining example of the bold pro-development model that will drive growth across the region”.

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Manchester United have plans to rebuild or redevelop Old Trafford, which city leaders claim could drive one of the UK’s “biggest ever urban regeneration projects”.

The Premier League club will decide by the end of this season whether to build a new 100,000-capacity ground, creating the country’s biggest stadium, or upgrade and expand the existing one.

Burnham dubbed the proposal “the largest opportunity for urban regeneration” since the 2012 London Olympic Games.

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Churches have a long history of being safe havens — for immigrants and others

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Churches have a long history of being safe havens — for immigrants and others

2007: Immigrant rights activist Elvira Arellano of Mexico defied a deportation order and took sanctuary for months in an apartment above the Adalberto United Methodist Church in Chicago. A new Trump administration policy no longer regards churches as “sensitive” areas where authorities should not pursue people in the country illegally. Arellano remains in the U.S.

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U.S. churches — once deemed off-limits to immigration authorities due to their “sensitive” status within communities — now face the prospect of federal agents arresting migrants within their walls, under a new Trump administration policy.

The new approach, which President Trump spoke of in a December interview, also applies to schools. The administration said it will trust agents to “use common sense” when enforcing immigration laws.

It’s an abrupt about-face for federal policies that had hewn much closer to decades and centuries of tradition. Migrants have long found support systems in houses of worship, including some churches that 40 years ago became sanctuaries for people facing deportation.

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In the 1800s, U.S. churches gave safe harbor to enslaved people; during the Vietnam War, they sheltered people resisting the military draft.

Just last week, the Episcopal bishop of Washington, Mariann Budde, implored newly inaugurated President Trump to “have mercy” on immigrants seeking asylum in the U.S. and residents who “may not be citizens or have proper documentation.”

A similar pattern spans back to the early years of Christianity, of churches offering people refuge.

“Really this idea that we should show compassion and mercy to people who are vulnerable is so fundamental to any Christian, to our Christian values, to our Christian sacred texts — and really to all faith traditions,” the Rev. Noel Andersen, national field director for the refugee support organization Church World Service, tells NPR.

U.S. churches formed a sanctuary movement

The new U.S. policy countermands a 2011 Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo, which told agents and officers not to arrest people in “sensitive locations” such as churches, schools, hospitals and public demonstrations unless a clear danger or other exceptions existed.

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The memo’s fate had been uncertain under the previous Trump administration. In Trump’s first term, churches granted sanctuary to immigrants in the U.S. illegally — including one woman who lived in an Ohio church for two years.

2017: Jeanette Vizguerra, who came to the U.S. without immigration documents, walks with two of her children as they seek sanctuary at First Unitarian Church in Denver, Colo. Vizguerra, who had been working in the U.S. for some 20 years, moved into a room in the basement of the church as she faced immediate deportation. Today, she continues working as an activist in the U.S.

2017: Jeanette Vizguerra, who came to the U.S. without immigration documents, walks with two of her children as they seek sanctuary at First Unitarian Church in Denver, Colo. Vizguerra, who had been working in the U.S. for some 20 years, moved into a room in the basement of the church as she faced immediate deportation. Today, she continues working as an activist in the U.S.

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During a crackdown in former President Obama’s second term, churches openly challenged immigration laws and sought lawyers to aid migrants. That followed record numbers of deportations reported in 2011. And in 2014, a Mexican immigrant spent a month in a Tucson, Ariz., church, which granted his family sanctuary.

In the 1980s, that same Tucson church, Southside Presbyterian, had been at the heart of a network of churches giving sanctuary to migrants from Central America who were under threat of deportation.

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“Cold War politics brought U.S. support to repressive and violent regimes in Central America,” Filiz Garip, a sociologist at Princeton University, tells NPR. She adds that because the U.S. didn’t welcome people fleeing those regimes, “churches [and] synagogues declared themselves to be a sanctuary to refugees.”

Pastor recalls sanctuary movement’s spark 

A pivotal moment came in July of 1980, when 13 Salvadorans died as a group of migrants entered the U.S. from Mexico. Southside Presbyterian’s minister, the Rev. John Fife, and other clergy were asked to help the survivors.

“For the first time I heard the extraordinary stories about the repression and the killings,” Fife told NPR in 2017. He and others helped the survivors find lawyers for asylum hearings.

“We’d take in people that had torture marks on their body, and doctors would testify, ‘Yeah, this guy’s been tortured in El Salvador,’ ” Fife said, “and the immigration judge would order him deported the next day.”

The Justice Department didn’t raid the churches helping migrants — but it mounted an undercover operation that resulted in felony charges.

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“They infiltrated us with undercover agents pretending to be volunteers,” Fife said, adding that in court, a judge forbade the defendants from raising topics such as their religious faith, refugee laws, and conditions facing people in El Salvador and Guatemala.

2018: Members of the New Sanctuary Coalition hold a vigil and procession for Aura Hernandez, a mother from Guatemala taking sanctuary in a church in New York City. In 2022, Hernandez was granted status to stay in the U.S., putting her on a path to citizenship.

2018: Members of the New Sanctuary Coalition hold a vigil and procession for Aura Hernandez, a mother from Guatemala taking sanctuary in a church in New York City. In 2022, Hernandez was granted status to stay in the U.S., putting her on a path to citizenship.

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Fife was convicted of conspiracy and transporting illegal aliens but was sentenced to parole rather than prison.

“Many people were able to apply for asylum eventually” in the years that followed, Andersen says, adding that policies such as the temporary protected status program that began in 1990 “were born out of the sanctuary movement.”

The TPS program allows people from countries designated as undergoing violent conflict, disasters, or other extreme conditions to gain work authorization and protection from deportation. In the first year of TPS, the U.S. granted the status to nationals of El Salvador; today, more than a dozen other countries are also on the list.

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Churches often seen outside of official reach

The connection between religion and migration runs deep: Migrants from rural Mexico often ask their priests to bless their migration journeys, according to Garip. When they arrive in the U.S., she says, “the church is a key institution that makes newcomers feel welcome.”

Since Saint Toribio Romo was canonized by Pope John Paul II in 2000, the Mexican priest has been widely recognized as the patron saint of immigrants.

And in the 1800s, churches served as vital links in the Underground Railroad that helped enslaved people elude authorities and migrate to free states. 

Such practices were built upon centuries-old ideas that held that churches were sacred and protected spaces — and that a “sanctuary” could refer to a physical meeting space, as well as to a concept of safety and refuge. And while “Sanctuary Cities” are a modern matter of contention, the Hebrew Bible lists six “Cities of Refuge” for people seeking refuge “and includes the ‘alien’ or ‘sojourner’ (gēr) among those who can seek refuge in the cities,” according to a paper by John R. Spencer of John Carroll University in Ohio.

Those cities helped spawn the broader idea of churches guaranteeing sanctuary, according to Rhonda Shapiro-Rieser of Smith College.

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“Greek and Roman societies both held the concept of refuge and places of sanctuary,” she writes. “By the fourth century, the right to sanctuary was formalized among early Christians.” 

It wasn’t until the 20th Century, Shapiro-Rieser writes, that states moved to claim the authority to enter churches at will.

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