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Analysis: Two months on, Russia is still struggling to capture this small Ukrainian city

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Analysis: Two months on, Russia is still struggling to capture this small Ukrainian city

The fierce Ukrainian protection of Severodonetsk, regardless of heavy losses, has compelled the Russians to pay attention firepower on a comparatively small space and held up their efforts to grab the ten% of Luhansk area they nonetheless don’t management.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the seizure of Ukraine’s japanese Luhansk and Donetsk areas as one of many aims of Moscow’s particular army operation that started in February. For now, that operation is essentially stalled; a big a part of Donetsk stays past the Russians’ attain.

Russian forces are making modest good points — the Russian Protection Ministry mentioned Sunday that the city of Metelkino simply southeast of Severodonetsk had been taken. However the Russians’ aim of encircling the Ukrainian troops defending the dual cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk nonetheless seems a way off.

In a marketing campaign missing agility and creativeness, the Russians have resorted to 1 principal tactic: overwhelming oblique hearth in opposition to any and all Ukrainian positions, whatever the collateral destruction.

The purpose is to depart nothing standing that may be defended. Using troops on the bottom to take and maintain city areas has been much less frequent and fewer profitable.

In a video of Ukrainian particular forces within the space launched on the weekend, one unidentified Ukrainian soldier says: “They’re throwing every thing they’ve, all of the munitions they’ve. It would not matter for them if it is our positions or civilian areas, they wipe every thing from the face of earth after which they use artillery after which they begin transferring ahead little by little.”

Amid intense city fight, some 500 civilians, together with dozens of kids, have taken shelter within the Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk. Not like the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, it affords little safety under floor. Ukrainian officers say individuals there, who beforehand refused to depart, do have meals provides however can not be evacuated from the plant due to the extreme preventing.

However as with Azovstal, the Azot plant and its rapid environment have turn out to be the focus of Ukrainian resistance — irritating Russian commanders.

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Based on the Institute for the Examine of Battle (ISW) assume tank in Washington, “Russian troops are possible dealing with mounting losses and troop and gear degradation that may complicate makes an attempt to resume offensive operations on different vital places because the gradual battle for Severodonetsk continues.”

Simply because the protection of Mariupol drew in additional than a dozen battalion tactical teams, so overcoming resistance in Severodonetsk is proving labor-intensive.

Grinding down resistance

The Ukrainians declare to have inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces within the space — partially because of new gear from Western allies, together with anti-tank weapons and longer-range howitzers equipped by the US and France. On Saturday, the Ukrainian armed forces claimed that items of Russia’s eleventh Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment had suffered vital losses and have been “withdrawn from the world of fight operations to revive fight functionality.”

Nonetheless, Ukrainian provide strains are below fixed assault, and it has turn out to be tougher to ferry provides from additional west in Donetsk area alongside the freeway to Lysychansk.

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The ISW nonetheless expects that “Russian forces will possible be capable to seize Severodonetsk within the coming weeks, however at the price of concentrating most of their obtainable forces on this small space.”

A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a trench on a position held by the Ukrainian army between southern cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson on June 12, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Russians’ ways thus far counsel a marketing campaign to grind down resistance south of the town — in locations like Syrotyne — after which assault Ukrainian defenses from a number of instructions.

Ukrainian officers say the Russians are more and more utilizing drones to determine their defensive positions. “The Russian army screens the air day and evening with drones, adjusts firepower, shortly adapts to our modifications in defensive areas,” mentioned Serhii Hayday, head of the Luhansk regional army administration.

Western support for Kyiv must not cease, say NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Elsewhere alongside an lively frontline that stretches for greater than 1,000 kilometers (greater than 620 miles), little territory is at the moment ceded or taken.

The Russians’ principal objectives in Donbas are to take the economic metropolis and transport hub of Sloviansk and the city of Bakhmut, each in Donetsk — however they’ve made very restricted progress in direction of both goal. They could even be susceptible to Ukrainian counterattacks south and west of the town of Izium.

Southern Ukraine represents a unique image. The Russians seem like consolidating good points received within the opening days of the warfare, alongside strains that permit them to defend a coastal belt in depth. Ukrainian counterattacks in direction of Kherson metropolis have made restricted progress, because the Russians are actually effectively dug-in and present little urge for food for attempting to win extra territory.

As UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson put it Sunday, after his second go to to Kyiv: “Time is the very important issue. The whole lot will rely on whether or not Ukraine can strengthen its capability to defend its soil sooner than Russia can renew its capability to assault.”

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Brittle morale

A few of Ukraine’s greatest army items have been punished in the course of the protection of Donbas. Protection Minister Oleksiy Reznikov advised CNN final week that tens of hundreds of Ukrainians had been killed because the Russian invasion started on February 24. Most likely the overwhelming majority have been troopers.

The UK Protection Ministry assessed this weekend that Ukrainian forces have possible suffered desertions in current weeks — although it believes Russian morale is way more brittle.

So, it is not solely about getting correct long-range weapons to Ukrainian forces but additionally stepping up coaching. Johnson is pushing a plan whereby allies develop the potential to coach as much as 10,000 troopers each 120 days.

Regardless of their losses, and at the same time as they deploy classic T62 tanks in some locations, Russian forces retain big superiority in armor and fight aviation. And regardless of a ponderous and predictable technique, they’ll proceed to obliterate Ukrainian defenses. Video emerged on the weekend revealing the size of destruction in Lyman, close to Sloviansk, simply as Popasna and Rubizhne additional east have been leveled in April.

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However with an accelerated circulate of weapons able to blunting Russia’s benefit in heavy artillery and rocket methods, Ukrainian forces would possibly but forestall the enemy from inflicting such devastation on extra cities and cities additional west.

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Israel marks first anniversary of Hamas attacks

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Israel marks first anniversary of Hamas attacks

This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Sunday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Hello and welcome to the working week.

It is going to be a difficult start to the next seven days for many as Israel marks the first anniversary of the Hamas attacks when more than 1,200 people were killed and 251 people were taken hostage. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and military leaders hit back and the conflict has escalated over the past 12 months.

But on Monday, people will stop to remember. Thousands of Israelis are expected to pay their respects at the Nova Music Festival memorial, the location of a rave where Hamas killed 364 and kidnapped 44 partygoers and staff a year ago. Others will travel to Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, where families and supporters have campaigned for the release of those taken. Memorials will be held in various communities that lost neighbours and relatives in the attacks, notably Kibbutz Be’eri, where more than 100 people were killed and 32 taken hostage.

On a more uplifting track, this week will bring rolling announcements on the winners of this year’s six Nobel Prizes. Given the war in the Middle East and beyond, interest in the Peace Prize, announced on Friday, is likely to be high.

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The corporate world takes up a lot of the news diary slack this week as we find ourselves deep in the earnings season. The big moment will be the Wall Street banks, which begin reporting on Friday. I’m not sure they will be mentioning this, but I’d recommend reading the excellent analysis of the rise of secretive trading firms such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities by US banking editor Joshua Franklin.

And then there is the long-awaited Robotaxi launch event by Tesla in Los Angeles on Thursday. What will they cost? When will they be ready to hit the streets? And does this mean Tesla owners can list their cars to be used for ride-hailing? All important questions.

Economic data is on the thin side this week, with US and German inflation figures and a UK monthly GDP estimate about the best of it. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

The matter of Parkrun is also a cause of division, but thank you to everyone who got in contact about it to share your passion for getting your running shoes on or about other group outdoor pursuits. Saturday will bring an outdoor event I could get into: The Peckham Conker Championships. Organisers are promising a 22-carat golden conker — I think it may be spray painted — but it does sound fun.

I’m interested in your priorities for the week ahead. Drop me a line at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

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Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Germany: August manufacturing, new orders and sales index

  • UK: Halifax House Price Index

  • Results: Ferrexpo Q3 production report, Grainger trading statement, Repsol trading statement, Shell Q3 quarterly update

Tuesday

  • October Prime Day, a global ecommerce shopping event by Amazon, offering deals to its Prime members in 19 countries

  • Germany: August industrial production index

  • UK: British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor

  • Results: Imperial Brands pre-close trading update, OMV Q3 trading update, PepsiCo Q3, S&U HY, Unite Group trading update, XP Power Q3 trading update

Wednesday

  • Witan Investment Trust hold a second general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed winding-up of the company and combination with Alliance Trust. If approved, the deal is expected to complete shortly after the meeting by means of a voluntary liquidation of the company and combination of the two companies to create Alliance Witan

  • US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

  • Results: CMC Markets HY pre-close trading update, Marston’s trading update

Thursday

  • Tesla due to unveil its Robotaxi, a launch event postponed, according to post on X (formerly Twitter) by chief executive Elon Musk, because of a design change

  • UK: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Residential Market Survey

  • US: September consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

  • Results: Delta Air Lines Q3, Domino’s Pizza Q3, Fast Retailing FY, Liontrust Asset Management HY trading update, Seven & i Holdings Q2, Tata Consultancy Services Q2, Treatt FY trading update, Volution Group FY

Friday

  • Germany: final September CPI and Harmonized Consumer Price Index inflation rate measures

  • UK: August GDP estimate

  • US: September producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data. Plus, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

  • Results: Bank of New York Mellon Q3, BlackRock Q3, Hays Q1 trading update, JPMorgan Chase Q3, Jupiter Fund Management Q3 trading update, Wells Fargo Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • Israel: first anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel that caused more than 1,200 deaths with hundreds taken hostage

  • Laos: Asean Business and Investment Summit bringing together more than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives with world leaders begins, running alongside the Asean Summit

  • Philippines: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol meets President Ferdinand Marcos Jr for bilateral talks in Manila. The two are expected to sign an agreement and issue joint statements after the meeting

  • Sweden: Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine announced, the first of several science prizes that will be given out over the coming todays. Tomorrow is physics, followed by chemistry on Wednesday

Tuesday

  • Luxembourg: Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) meeting of EU finance ministers.

  • UK: Alexander Darwall and his wife Diana Darwall bring an appeal against the decision of the UK Court of Appeal that the Dartmoor National Park Authority can allow wild camping in the national park. The Darwalls own the 4,000-acre Blachford Estate in Dartmoor and previously won a High Court case ruling that there was no right to wild camp on Dartmoor without the landowner’s permission. The Court of Appeal overturned that decision

  • US: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump participates in a town hall presented by Spanish-language network Univision

Wednesday

  • 150th anniversary of the Universal Postal Union under the Treaty of Bern, which unified a complex maze of postal services and regulations into a single postal territory and allowed for the growth of global post deliveries

  • Mozambique: presidential and parliamentary elections

  • UK: Conservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Thursday

  • World Mental Health Day, raising public awareness about mental health issues

  • Sweden: Nobel Prize for Literature announced

  • UK: Unleashed, a memoir of former prime minister Boris Johnson, is published. The pre-publication publicity promises revelations on campaigning for Brexit, how he nearly died from Covid-19, bikes, buses and the London Olympics

  • US: President Joe Biden begins trip to Germany and Angola

  • US: Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris participates in a town hall presented by Spanish-language network Univision

Friday

  • Greece: government due to present a revised national climate plan, with more ambitious targets for the share of renewable power in its electricity mix and lower carbon emissions

  • Sweden: Nobel Peace Prize winner announced

Saturday

  • Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid

  • UK: Peckham’s annual conker championship returns

Sunday

  • China: publishes September CPI and PPI inflation rate figures

  • Lithuania: parliamentary elections

  • UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s first 100 days in office

  • US: John Donahoe retires as Nike president and chief executive. Elliott Hill succeeds him tomorrow

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In Queens, N.Y., an immigrant street vendor is forced to confront crippling shyness

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In Queens, N.Y., an immigrant street vendor is forced to confront crippling shyness

Luis Beltran sells ice cream at Flushing Meadows Park in Queens.

Wendy Correa for NPR


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Wendy Correa for NPR

When we met, Luis Beltran was standing in a crowd, looking a little shell-shocked, holding an ice cream.

“People in the city can be so rude,” he said.

It was still summer, and we were in the middle of one of the largest parks in New York City: Flushing Meadows Park in Queens. As the heat winds down, NPR has been interviewing parkgoers about life as recently arrived immigrants.

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This park is a great place to hear all kinds of stories. Queens is traditionally a hub for immigrants from all parts of the world, and thousands of people come here every weekend. On that summer day, there was live music, and food vendors selling goodies at the top of their lungs. Which is exactly what Beltran was trying to do for the first time: sell some ice cream.

But when he got there, he froze. (No pun intended.)

The thing is, Beltran is very shy.

“Especially around women,” he said, laughing and looking down. Beltran is 23 years old. He’s short and stocky, a handsome guy.

Originally from Ecuador, he left home about a year ago. He says he paid a coyote, a guide to migrants, to bring him up through Central America and Mexico, all the way to the U.S. border. It cost about $20,000.

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This is not an uncommon fee for that journey: Migrants often sell everything they own and get deep in debt to pay for the trek north. Coming to the U.S. is expensive,” said Beltran.

Beltran is among the more than 200,000 migrants who have arrived in New York City since 2022, according to local government. Like many of them, although he is in the immigration system, he doesn’t have work authorization. This is a problem because he owes money to that coyote, who knows where his family lives.

La deuda, the debt, is a frequent topic of conversation among recently arrived immigrant communities.

“I think about how to pay la deuda,” Beltran said.

He got a job in construction. Then one day, he picked up a book called Atomic Habits, by James Clear. “It teaches you how to take more risks, be more open, be more of a businessman. Challenge yourself.”

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Beltran finished the book and decided to come to the park and sell ice cream. Specifically, helados de salcedo, an Ecuadorian-style popsicle.

But when he got here this morning, he got nervous.

When we met, he was just standing there quietly, a now-dripping ice cream cone in hand, as if holding a white surrender flag.

He said he was thinking about his aunt. When he was a kid, he used to sell flowers with her on the street. He was already very shy back then, and one day she told him: “Luis, you can’t afford to be shy.”

So he says this morning when he got to the park, he came up with a mantra: “Send money to cancel the debt. Cancel the debt. Cancel the debt. Keep going. Keep fighting.”

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Beltran’s eyes light up a little as he says it aloud. He takes a deep breath and yells:

Helados de lado de salcedo, helados de sabores, helados, helados, helados no se quede con las ganas. (Salcedo ice cream! All kinds of flavors! Ice cream! Don’t hesitate to get yours!)”

As he shouts it, he smiles for the first time since we met.

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Video: The Fight for Rural America

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Video: The Fight for Rural America

One in five Americans identifies as rural, and since the 1960s, their votes have become increasingly Republican. Astead W. Herndon, a politics reporter and the host of the New York Times podcast “The Run-Up,” examines how Republicans expanded their rural advantage to historic levels and whether Democrats can remain competitive.

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