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Analysis: Supreme Court’s draft opinion sends electric shock through midterm campaigns

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Analysis: Supreme Court’s draft opinion sends electric shock through midterm campaigns

In fact, the implications of this story stretch far past Washington, partisan politics and dueling interpretations of the legislation, the character of precedent and the Structure.

Dropping entry to abortion would imply thousands and thousands of girls can be disadvantaged of the correct to make choices about their very own our bodies — even when their well being or very lives are in danger. The burden for this enormous erosion of girls’s rights is more likely to fall closely on poorer, minority girls who have already got worse well being outcomes and entry.

Conversely, the overturning of the landmark Roe v. Wade resolution would even be the story of generations of conservative activists, who mounted a honest ethical mission to finish what they see as an inhumane process that they assume is antithetical to America’s founding values.

But for all its human dimensions, the difficulty of abortion is an inherently political query. In spite of everything, if the courtroom overturns Roe v. Wade, it could be the fruits of successive Republican political campaigns that produced a conservative majority on the courtroom. And it could additional widen the rising cultural, authorized and political gulf between Republican-led states, the place abortion would seemingly be banned, and Democratic-run bastions the place legislators will seemingly maintain it authorized.

The Democratic problem

The problem now for Democrats — within the run-up to the midterm elections in November and probably for years to return — is whether or not they can construct a equally efficient marketing campaign on abortion as Republicans have.

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For many years, Republicans up and down the poll have emphasised calls to abolish abortion and the necessity to create majorities in Washington to construct a Supreme Courtroom hostile to abortion rights.

Whereas Democrats have used the difficulty to activate their base and lift cash — see the affect of EMILY’s Checklist, which backs pro-abortion rights feminine candidates, for instance — that very same single-minded focus on this core problem was by no means as pronounced at Democratic presidential, congressional and native occasions.

That distinction might mirror the revolutionary zeal of conservatives mobilizing to overturn a established order and the complacency of liberals who had lived with it for many of their lives.

One anti-abortion activist, Mallory Carroll, who serves as vice chairman of communications at Susan B. Anthony Checklist, informed CNN’s Erin Burnett on Tuesday that the difficulty at all times motivated the correct greater than the left.

“Traditionally, the depth hole has favored pro-life candidates,” Carroll mentioned, however she added that she believed the difficulty would encourage voters from each side in November.

That very same realization pulsated via Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s feedback on Tuesday outdoors the Supreme Courtroom.

“The Republicans have been working towards today for many years,” Warren mentioned. “They have been on the market plotting, rigorously cultivating these Supreme Courtroom justices to allow them to have a majority of the bench who would accomplish one thing that almost all of Individuals don’t want.”

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It is honest to query a political system that noticed then-President Donald Trump, who did not win a preferred vote majority, nominate the three justices who cemented the conservative dominance of the bench. And there are even firmer grounds to deliver up then-Senate Majority Chief Mitch McConnell’s hypocritical maneuverings that produced that edge.

However for essentially the most half, Republicans labored via legitimate political constructions to achieve the Rubicon that the Supreme Courtroom appears about to cross. And Democrats lacked the ruthlessness to match their ardour for this single objective.

A lot has been made from polls that present that Individuals overwhelmingly oppose overturning Roe v. Wade for the reason that Alito draft emerged on Monday night time. A CNN ballot in January, as an example, confirmed 69% would oppose such a choice.
Biden's political and personal evolution on abortion on display after publication of draft Supreme Court opinion

However the query for Democrats is: can they get individuals to vote on it?

Former Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis thinks they may, after seeing pro-abortion rights rallies spring up across the nation on Tuesday.

“It is just the start of what I feel goes to be an essential tipping level within the 2022 election cycle,” the Democrat mentioned on CNN’s “AC360.” For her view to be borne out, Democrats — from President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris all the way down to native candidates — must present a political depth and relentless message self-discipline that has up to now eluded them in a tumultuous time.
Harris gave a passionate speech on the difficulty at Tuesday’s EMILY’s Checklist gala, saying, “How dare (Republican leaders) inform a lady what she will be able to do and can’t do along with her personal physique?”

However there isn’t a assure a singular deal with abortion will mitigate stiff headwinds Democrats are dealing with on points like excessive gasoline costs and inflation.

How Republicans could also be susceptible

On the face of it, Democrats instantly have one reply to an issue they have been dealing with for weeks: What’s their message in a midterm election marketing campaign weighed down by an unpopular President and an obvious incapacity to reply voter issues over excessive inflation, immigration and crime?

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In principle, it ought to be easy for them to knit collectively the looming abortion ruling with claims that Republicans — a few of whom are embracing hardline campaigns in opposition to transgender rights and demagoguing discussions of race in schooling — have raced to radical extremes. A message stressing the necessity to save abortion rights — or punishing Republicans for overturning them — may also be a solution to shore up assist amongst suburban feminine voters who have been important to Democrats successful the Home in 2018 and Biden’s 2020 victory.

Democrats turn focus to abortion after months of midterm message uncertainty
The difficulty may provide a gap in Republican-run states the place giant numbers of Democratic girls face shedding their constitutional proper to an abortion. Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke clearly thinks so. He introduced a rally for abortion rights in Houston on Saturday, and lower a video that confirmed each signal of placing the difficulty on the middle of his long-shot marketing campaign to unseat Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

“We’re going to set up, we’re going to rally, and we’re going to battle for the rights of our fellow Texans, particularly the correct to an abortion that’s beneath assault on this state in contrast to another place within the nation,” O’Rourke mentioned.

Abortion is a matter that can emphasize one of many rising traits of Texas politics — the schism between Republicans, who dominate state energy and draw on the state’s huge heartland, and cities like Houston the place most Democratic voters stay. That is a divide mirrored throughout the nation.

Democrats who’ve raised issues in regards to the depth of their base enthusiasm additionally hope to make use of the difficulty to skewer Republicans in swing states like Wisconsin. Because the Politico story reverberated, Sen. Ron Johnson, who’s essentially the most susceptible Republican incumbent senator this 12 months, was already attempting to shift the dialog again to subjects which have put Democrats on the defensive.

“You check out open borders, 40-year excessive inflation, document gasoline costs, rising crime,” Johnson mentioned. “They cannot discuss in regards to the outcomes of their governance, so they have to attempt to discover one thing else to run on.”

Muted conservative celebrations

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Conservatives should have been celebrating on Tuesday on the prospect {that a} longed-for political victory was in attain.

However many have been oddly reticent, reflecting the unsure political influence of this lightning bolt. Many selected to focus on the discharge of the draft opinion — a massively uncommon breach of Supreme Courtroom safety — demanding a leak inquiry and stiff punishments for the wrongdoer.

“You want, it appears to me to — excuse the lecture — to focus on what the information is right now. Not a leaked draft, however the truth that the draft was leaked,” McConnell, now the Senate minority chief, informed reporters.

What we know about the investigation into the Supreme Court leak

One other member of the Senate Republican management, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, additionally appeared reticent to weigh in on the influence the Alito draft opinion — and an eventual last Supreme Courtroom resolution — may have on the midterms.

“I do not know it is essentially a celebration problem,” Thune informed CNN. “I feel it is extra of a difficulty of conscience.”

Republicans’ warning might mirror concern that the political furor may trigger some conservative justices to water down their place and threaten a victory on Roe v. Wade. Nevertheless it additionally reveals how a marketing campaign shaping up inexorably within the GOP’s favor now instantly has an unpredictable aspect.

And Democrats assume they’ve a gap.

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“They’re just like the canine that caught the bus,” Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer mentioned. “They know they’re on the flawed facet of historical past. They know they’re on the flawed facet of the place the American persons are.”

CNN’s Alex Rogers, Manu Raju, Melanie Zanona, Morgan Rimmer and Ryan Nobles contributed to this story.

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Read the Report on Security in New Orleans

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Read the Report on Security in New Orleans

“It does not hinder policing, but the admin part is clogging up the works.”53 The most
frequently noted hindrance, particularly by law enforcement respondents, is the
amount of paperwork created for sergeants by the consent decree, which has a direct
result of keeping them off the streets.
“We are seeing blatant discretionary policing, where a cop can just walk by a
violator because they don’t feel like filling out the paperwork, so the violator feels
above the law, compounding propensity to commit crimes.”54
Surprisingly, it was NOPD respondents who said that the consent decree is not the
burdensome yoke others perceive it to be. While it may have been a difficult
adjustment for veteran NOPD officers, they said, new officers who have only known
policing under the consent decree do not feel tethered by it, as they have no other
comparison.
F.
Risk of Terrorism & Critical Security Incidents
The risk of terrorism – specifically mass shootings and vehicular attacks – remains highly
possible while moderately probable.
The two modes of terror attack most likely to be used are vehicular ramming and active
shooting. Both international and domestic terrorists have turned to these methods as a
cheap low-tech alternative to complex bomb plots, particularly in the case of lone wolf
attacks. Considering that the most high-profile target in New Orleans – Bourbon Street
– is an open air thoroughfare with little to no access control reinforces the rationale for
these two methods.
Aside from serving as a general deterrent, the larger police presence that Interfor and
nearly all stakeholders are advocating would ensure a quicker armed response to an
active shooter. To illustrate the fact, one need look no further than the August 4, 2019
active shooter attack in Dayton, Ohio. In this tragic act of terror, nine people were killed
and an additional seventeen were shot within thirty-two seconds of when the gunman
opened fire, at which point he was neutralized by the substantial police force in the
nearby vicinity. Sadly, the carnage would likely be far worse in the area of Bourbon
Street, where no evidence of a substantial quick reaction force ready to face a similar
threat was observed.
Increased visibility and a larger show of force also raise the chances to disrupt potential
terror attacks during the planning phase. Historically, the majority of intended attacks
which have been thwarted were detected during the planning phase, when would-be
53 NOPD Officer
54
A restauranteur
-37-
INTERFOR INTERNATIONAL

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Joe Biden blocks Nippon Steel’s $15bn takeover of US Steel

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Joe Biden blocks Nippon Steel’s bn takeover of US Steel

US President Joe Biden has blocked a $15bn deal by Japan’s Nippon Steel to buy US Steel, delivering a setback to Washington’s relations with its closest Asia-Pacific ally and prompting the companies to threaten legal action.

Biden, who has long been opposed to the purchase, issued an order on Friday compelling Nippon and US Steel “to fully and permanently abandon the proposed transaction” within 30 days.

In response, the two companies labelled the move “a clear violation of due process” and the law. In an indication of possible legal action, they added: “Following President Biden’s decision, we are left with no choice but to take all appropriate action to protect our legal rights.”

A clause in the original agreement with US Steel obliges Nippon to pay a $565mn break-fee payment in the event the deal is blocked.

Biden’s extraordinary intervention, which comes with just 17 days remaining of his term, caps a presidency in which he has sought to boost American jobs and has moved away from the free-trade agenda of previous administrations.

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It is also likely to raise concerns about US receptiveness to future foreign investment, with president-elect Donald Trump, who won November’s election on a protectionist platform, also opposing the deal.

The companies said it was “shocking and deeply troubling that the US government would . . . treat an ally like Japan in this way”.

They added: “Unfortunately, it sends a chilling message to any company based in a US-allied country contemplating significant investment in the US.”

In the order, Biden said there was “credible evidence” that through the acquisition, Nippon “might take action that threatens to impair the national security of the United States”.

The Committee on Foreign Investment, which vets foreign acquisitions, failed to reach a consensus by a December 23 deadline on whether the transaction posed a national security threat.

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The companies said the president had not presented any “credible evidence of a national security issue”, adding that “instead of abiding by the law, the process was manipulated to advance President Biden’s political agenda”.

They added the Cfius process “was deeply corrupted by politics, and the outcome was pre-determined”.

Biden’s intervention marks the failure of Nippon Steel’s ambitious expansion plan that morphed into a sensitive political issue in a US election year.

The decision by the outgoing president, who is known for his support for organised labour, follows fierce opposition to the deal from the United Steelworkers union. The group’s campaign proved fatal to the purchase, despite intense lobbying in recent weeks from executives at US Steel and Nippon.

The White House said Biden’s decision was not meant as a snub to Tokyo.

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“This isn’t about Japan. It’s about US steelmaking,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Friday. It is about “keeping one of the largest steel producers in the United States an American-owned company. It is not about the extraordinary, close relationship, any alliance, that we have with Japan.”

US Steel shares were down more than 6 per cent after the decision.

Opponents of the takeover welcomed Biden’s decision.

Sherrod Brown, the outgoing Democratic senator from Ohio, wrote on X: “This deal . . . represented a clear threat to America’s national and economic security and our ability to enforce our trade laws. It’s why we fought it every step of the way. The president is right to block it.”

Biden’s move to quash the deal will leave the fate of US Steel in limbo. The company had warned it might close mills and reduce its workforce, possibly moving its headquarters away from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, if the agreement was blocked.

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Nippon’s proposed takeover had attracted significant support in parts of the US that would have benefited from the promised investment and technology from the Japanese company.

William Chou, deputy director of the Japan chair at the Hudson Institute think-tank, said the decision would devastate the steelmaking communities in western Pennsylvania and Indiana.

“President Biden talks about protecting the American steel industry, but only in the abstract,” he added. “At no point did he engage with actual steelworkers, or address the technology needed to empower them to safeguard the steel industry.”

Japanese officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have previously said that, while they understood the risk of political intervention that Nippon faced when launching a bid ahead of a US presidential election, it was baffling that a Japanese company should be labelled a security risk.

Heino Klinck, a former US deputy assistant secretary for defence for east Asia, said it was “ironic and nonsensical” that national security concerns were being cited as rationale for blocking the deal, because Japan hosted the world’s largest presence of the US’s forward-deployed military forces.

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“This decision will cast a shadow on the alliance,” he said. “It is indeed unfortunate that the Biden administration has handed the Chinese Communist party yet another talking point on America not being a reliable partner.”

Additional reporting by Steff Chávez

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The U.S. Surgeon General wants cancer warnings on alcohol. Here's why

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The U.S. Surgeon General wants cancer warnings on alcohol. Here's why

Bottles of alcohol sit on shelves at a bar in Houston on June 23, 2020.

David J. Phillip/AP


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U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy is calling on Congress to require health warning labels that inform consumers about the link between alcohol consumption and the risk of cancer.

Murthy released a new advisory detailing how drinking alcohol increases the risk of developing seven types of cancer.

“Alcohol is the third leading preventable cause of cancer behind tobacco and obesity,” Murthy, who will leave office later this month, told NPR. “Just to put this in perspective, alcohol is responsible for about 100,000 cases of cancer in the United States each year and 20,000 cancer deaths.”

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He told Morning Edition‘s Steve Inskeep that the seven cancers linked to alcohol consumption are breast, colorectal, esophagus, liver, mouth, throat and voice box (larynx).

“Most people don’t know about this link. And that’s the key reason why I’m putting out this advisory today,” Murthy said.

Murthy spoke with Morning Edition about the risk of alcohol consumption and the incoming surgeon general, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat.

This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Inskeep: Is the science more definite than a few years ago? Do we know more about this link?

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Murthy: We do. The science has been building for years, creating greater and greater certainty about more and more types of cancer. But what is clear is that while people know, for example, about the link between tobacco and cancer and other health risks and cancer, less than half of people in America know that alcohol is, in fact, connected to cancer risk.

Inskeep: Does it matter if you drink a lot or in moderation?

Murthy: It turns out it does. It turns out that more consumption of alcohol increases your risk of cancer. So we see significantly lower risk at lower levels of consumption.

Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy speaks during an event on the White House.

Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy speaks during an event on the White House in April. The nation’s top doctor has issued an advisory about the public health risks of widespread gun violence.

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Inskeep: I’m thinking about how to measure this risk. It sounds pretty bad, but there are so many risks with alcohol. In fact, there are already warnings about drinking during pregnancy, drinking while driving, obviously operating machinery, various other health problems. Is cancer even the main thing to worry about here?

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Murthy: Well, it’s interesting that you mention those other risks, because on alcohol-containing bottles, there is, in fact, a surgeon general’s warning that mentions these two risks: drinking during pregnancy and drinking while operating a car or heavy machinery.

What I have called for in this advisory is that the surgeon general’s warning label be updated by Congress to include a third risk here, which is the risk of cancer. You know, we’ve seen in the first two cases that when people were warned about these risks, they became part of our common knowledge. They sort of just shape our behavior.

What I want people to know here is that, while we don’t have data to give a precise level at which every person can drink and minimize their risk of cancer, the exact level that’s right for each individual does depend on their own risk of cancer based on their genetics, their family history, environmental exposures.

The two critical things that the data does tell us are that, one, there is a significant increase in risk of cancer going from, you know, even at the current levels, that are within the guidelines. So that’s one drink a day for women, two drinks a day for men. But second, that the patterns we see suggest lower consumption is equated with lower risk.

So the bottom line is, if you drink regularly, keep in mind that less is better when it comes to reducing your cancer risk.

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Inskeep: I want to note for people you’re heading out of office Jan. 20. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated a replacement, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, who’s a Fox News contributor, also a doctor in urgent care. Have you had many conversations with her as she prepares to take over, assuming she’s confirmed?

Murthy: I have not, but I’m looking forward to connecting with her. And, you know, to her or to whomever is confirmed as the next surgeon general. I think something people may not know is that those of us who have served in this role have a strong fellowship. We are friends with each other across Republican and Democratic administrations. We help each other out and support each other. And if she is to serve as the next surgeon general, if she’s confirmed by the Senate, and certainly she’ll be a part of that group as well.

Inskeep: One other thing is on my mind, because you’ve issued a number of warnings during your time in office, I think sometimes about the famous 1964 surgeon general’s warning on smoking. My parents heard that and actually just quit smoking. They still had their old lighters when I was growing up, but they did not smoke at all. People listened to the surgeon general. Do you think people listen to the surgeon general the same way today?

Murthy: I think people still do listen to the office, but I’m certainly aware that there are many types of pathways to which people get their information these days. Many more than back in 1964 when the tobacco report came out from our office. But back then, when that report did come out, the very next year, Congress passed legislation for a warning label. And we started to see a big national effort come together where parents, community leaders, schools all came together to build campaigns to reduce tobacco use.

That, in my mind, has been the power of this office in history. – During this term as well, we’ve seen the issues we have raised around youth mental health, loneliness and isolation, social media, have driven national conversation and behavior change. My hope with this advisory on alcohol and cancer risk is that we can contribute to change as well, and help people ultimately be healthier.

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This article was edited by Obed Manuel.

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