Senator Chuck Schumer, the bulk chief, is ready to gavel within the new Senate on Tuesday after midterm elections through which his get together retained all of its seats and picked up an extra one in Pennsylvania. But regardless of the nice fortunes for Democrats, efforts to advance their agenda within the Senate will largely stay blocked by two pace bumps: Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

Within the Senate, opponents can derail most payments with a filibuster except supporters have 60 votes. Democrats want 50 votes to bypass the filibuster. They’ve 49. Manchin, essentially the most conservative Senate Democrat, opposes altering Senate guidelines to permit his get together to cross extra payments with a easy majority. So does Sinema, who not too long ago grew to become an impartial and has stated she received’t caucus with Democrats. That leaves Democrats one vote shy of bypassing the filibuster on points like abortion and voting rights.

Within the minds of some progressives, the essential fiftieth vote was inside attain in Wisconsin, the place right-wing Sen. Ron Johnson’s margin of victory was 1%. It was the closest Senate race that Democrats misplaced final 12 months, and one which supporters of Democrat Mandela Barnes say raises uncomfortable questions in regards to the limits of the get together’s assist for progressive candidates, notably Black ones.

“I believe that there’s sure powers that be that even have a vested curiosity in progressives and other people of coloration not successful in swing states, as a result of what which means is that the floodgates are open and extra progressives can run,” says Adam Inexperienced, co-founder of the Progressive Change Marketing campaign Committee, which supported Barnes’ marketing campaign.

Within the weeks earlier than Election Day, Republicans seized on crime as a sore spot for Barnes. Advertisements in opposition to the Wisconsin Democrat painted him as “too harmful” for the state. One included his title overlaid on a criminal offense scene. Critics stated the adverts performed on racist fears of Black males. Democrats each in Wisconsin and nationally feared the technique was working.

“Each digital outlet, something with a display, was screaming with anti-Barnes propaganda,” says Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Occasion. “I don’t know a single Democrat in Wisconsin who wasn’t ripping their hair out in September. There was a way of fear, bordering on panic.”

Barnes’ marketing campaign raised greater than $40 million and outdoors teams spent tens of tens of millions extra backing him. However all that paled compared to what Johnson supporters poured into the race. Johnson’s backers included the standard Republican juggernauts, in addition to a brilliant PAC partly funded by Liz and Dick Uihlein, high GOP megadonors who’ve a summer time dwelling within the state.

Whereas earlier polls noticed Barnes main, Johnson started to eclipse him in September. Johnson finally received re-election by about 27,000 votes, out of greater than 2.6 million solid. Some Barnes supporters are satisfied somewhat more money within the last stretch might have made all of the distinction. “The truth right here is, 5 million extra {dollars} spent in September, we in all probability win this race,” says marketing campaign supervisor Kory Kozloski.

‘Rubbish Partisan Polls’

Heading into the election season, Johnson was extensively considered as essentially the most susceptible Republican Senator. Not solely was he the one one operating in a state that President Biden narrowly received in 2020, however his approval score was among the many lowest within the Senate. In recent times, he has expressed openness to anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, superior baseless claims of election fraud, and downplayed the Jan. 6 assault. To Democrats, his positions appeared too excessive for voters in battleground Wisconsin.

All through the Democratic major, Barnes remained the frontrunner. The state’s first Black lieutenant governor, Barnes incessantly drew comparisons to former President Barack Obama for his potential to make historical past once more—he would have been Wisconsin’s first Black senator—but in addition for his capability to attraction to a multiracial coalition of working-class folks.

His document additionally included potential drawbacks. Whereas serving within the state meeting, Barnes constructed a repute as a staunch progressive, notably on felony justice points. His sponsorship of a plan to finish money bail grew to become an particularly salient marketing campaign difficulty final 12 months after a person launched on bail killed six by driving his automobile by means of the Waukesha Christmas parade. Barnes argued that his proposed bail reforms would have stored the perpetrator in jail, however Republicans pounced anyway. In addition they highlighted his historical past of questioning police budgets and a photograph of Barnes holding an “Abolish ICE” T-shirt. His marketing campaign insisted Barnes didn’t assist defunding the police or abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Amongst Barnes’ progressive allies, there’s a way that nationwide Democratic strategists and donors could have supported Barnes, however that their assist was halfhearted, as a result of they considered his previous statements on felony justice as main liabilities. Within the weeks forward of Election Day, the pessimism round Barnes’ probabilities grew, with some Democrats privately predicting he might lose badly.

“The takeaway to me is to not take note of rubbish partisan polls from the suitable,” Wikler says.

Maurice Mitchell, the nationwide director of the Working Households Occasion, argues that these Democrats who painted Barnes as too progressive didn’t assist him strongly sufficient within the aftermath of the first, a scarcity of enthusiasm that dampened efforts to get deep-pocketed donors to spend what was wanted on his behalf in Wisconsin.

“We now have to put money into our younger expertise,” Mitchell says. “When Mandela is among the extra proficient voices within the Democratic Occasion, this was the chance to point out full funding, and it was a missed alternative.”

Aside from their efforts defending incumbents, Democrats made their most vital investments final 12 months in Pennsylvania, the place John Fetterman flipped a Senate seat. He did so regardless of a felony justice document that Republicans portrayed as prioritizing the therapy of criminals over public security—the exact same assault that stymied Barnes.

To be clear, nationwide Democrats additionally put numerous cash into serving to Barnes win. After Fetterman, Barnes was the non-incumbent who acquired essentially the most outdoors spending. Senate Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Schumer, and different associates invested over $40 million in paid media within the race, beginning assaults in opposition to Johnson early within the 12 months and outspending its Republican counterpart in the course of the basic election interval. However in response to knowledge supplied by the Barnes marketing campaign, that dynamic shifted drastically in September, when outdoors spending on adverts attacking Barnes dwarfed outdoors spending on anti-Johnson adverts, largely because of Johnson’s rich backers.

One Wisconsin political strategist famous to TIME that John Shares, a former government director of the Nationwide Training Affiliation who now advises a few of the nation’s wealthiest left-of-center donors on which candidates to assist, didn’t push donors to put money into Barnes. Shares declined to remark.

‘A Strategic Mistake’

The closeness of Johnson’s win has some progressives lamenting the cash Democrats spent elsewhere. They complain most incessantly about Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee within the Ohio Senate race who portrayed himself as a reasonable and misplaced by six factors to J.D. Vance, the writer of Hillbilly Elegy who received the GOP major with the backing of Donald Trump.

“Whether or not explicitly or implicitly, it’s like, ‘Oh, we have now sort of a white man populist operating in Ohio,’” says Inexperienced, with the Progressive Change Marketing campaign Committee. “It spoke to some folks in a manner {that a} Black progressive operating in Wisconsin didn’t, and that’s actually unlucky, leading to some very unhealthy political decisions.”

Ryan was lengthy thought of a longshot in Ohio, the place Trump received two years earlier by 8 share factors. Senate Majority PAC didn’t spend within the Ohio Senate race, however different Democratic teams did. Amongst those that prioritized Ohio was Dmitri Mehlhorn, who advises LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and different rich donors.

“We acquired [Republicans] to spend a bunch of cash,” says Mehlhorn, reflecting on the choice to spend in Ohio. “That cash, together with essential consideration and time, got here on the expense of Republican efforts in different battlegrounds. If the GOP hadn’t needed to spend that effort in Ohio, would they win Nevada?”

Melhorn provides that his community of donors did make investments tens of millions in Wisconsin, together with by donating to Barnes’ marketing campaign instantly.

“That stated, we consider that our allies in Wisconsin profit from our work to increase the map,” he says.

The distinction between the Ohio and Wisconsin outcomes might inform how Democrats method a troublesome Senate map in 2024. Barnes’ slender loss offers a proof level {that a} younger, Black progressive might be aggressive in a swing state in the midst of the nation, and suggests the fears about his felony justice document weren’t as a lot of a handicap as some Democrats had feared.

“I believe in the long run, you see that that underestimated how good a candidate he was,” says Charles Franklin, who runs the Marquette Regulation Faculty Ballot in Wisconsin.

However whereas progressives recommend that the distinction between a win and a loss in Wisconsin was extra funding, others surprise if the Barnes marketing campaign made a strategic error in indirectly rebutting Johnson’s assaults earlier on.

“The remaining query is, was there a marketing campaign technique throughout that first month, the place he may need hit again tougher, may need moved away from his extra optimistic campaigns sooner?” Franklin asks.

All through the final election, Barnes’ marketing campaign centered the Democrat’s personal uplifting biography, whereas attacking Johnson totally on abortion.

“When [voters] acquired to know him, they didn’t consider the adverts,” says Kozloski. “They noticed by means of all of the BS that the Republicans have been making an attempt to throw at him.”

Finally, what Republicans threw at Barnes price him the race. What stays to be seen is what technique Democrats will pursue to defend their candidates from such assaults sooner or later—or in the event that they’ll pursue any new technique in any respect.

“It’s very straightforward, after electoral losses like that, to be taught the fallacious classes, or not be taught a lesson in any respect, and simply sort of transfer ahead,” Mitchell says. “And we predict that that may be a strategic mistake.”

Write to Mini Racker at mini.racker@time.com.