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Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: Recent polls

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Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: Recent polls


Donald Trump may not win Wisconsin in November as recent polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is just ahead in the key swing state.

The former president will appear at a rally in Juneau on Sunday as the Republican looks to appeal to voters in The Badger State with less than one month to go until November’s election.

Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes is one of the battleground states which could determine who wins the neck-and-neck 2024 race overall.

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three so-called blue-wall swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, barring any shock results elsewhere. Harris would need to win the one Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in this scenario, with polls suggesting she is on course to do so.

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Trump could win the 2024 election overall by beating Harris in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and flipping Wisconsin.

Forecasters and polling aggregators suggest that Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Wisconsin, although the race is still too close to call.

Donald Trump speaks at a press conference on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee. Polls suggest Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in The Badger State.

Jim Vondruska/Getty Images

A recent Marquette Law School poll showed Harris ahead with a 4-point lead over Trump by (52 to 48) among registered and likely voters in a head-to-head matchup.

In a full presidential candidate ballot that included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3 percent), Harris had a 5-point lead over Trump among likely voters (49 percent to 44).

The Marquette Law School Poll survey was conducted between September 18 to 26 among 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters. The margin of error for both results is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

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Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.

An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters also showed Harris as having a 4-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin (52 percent to 48).

The poll was conducted August 29 to September 29, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

A Trafalgar group survey of 1,097 likely Wisconsin voters, carried out between September 28-30, showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris in the state (47 percent to 46). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Elsewhere, a New York Times/Siena College survey said Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin by 49 percent to 47.

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The poll surveyed 680 registered voters in Wisconsin between September 21-30, with the margin of error around 4 percentage points.

The polling average from aggregator 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said Harris has a 1.6-point lead over Trump (48.4 percent to 46.8) in Wisconsin as of October 5.

RealClearPolitics’ polling average gives Harris a narrower lead of 0.8 points (49 percent to 48.2).

The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill says Harris has a 53 percent chance of winning Wisconsin in November.

President Joe Biden won all three of the blue-wall battlegrounds during his 2020 election victory, beating Trump in Wisconsin by 0.6 points.

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Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016 by 0.7 points—the first time the state had voted for a Republican candidate since 1984.



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Nearly 200 ballots went uncounted in Wisconsin and officials want to know why

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Nearly 200 ballots went uncounted in Wisconsin and officials want to know why


MADISON, Wis. — Nearly 200 absentee ballots somehow went uncounted in Wisconsin’s liberal capital after the Nov. 5 election, prompting state election officials to launch an investigation Thursday into whether the city clerk broke the law.

The Wisconsin Elections Commission voted unanimously to investigate whether Madison City Clerk Maribeth Wetzel-Biehl failed to comply with state law or abused her discretion. Commission members said they were concerned the clerk’s office didn’t inform them of the problem until late December, almost a month and a half after the election. Commission Chair Ann Jacobs certified Wisconsin’s election results on Nov. 29.

Wetzel-Biehl’s office said in a statement that the number of uncounted votes didn’t affect the outcome of any race or referendum on the ballots. But Jacobs said the oversight was “so egregious” that the commission must determine what happened and how it can be prevented as spring elections approach.

“We are the final canvassers,” Jacobs said. “We are the final arbiters of votes in the state of Wisconsin and we need to know why those ballots weren’t included anywhere.”

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Wetzel-Biehl said in an email to The Associated Press that her office looks forward to working with the commission to determine what happened and how to prevent the same issues in future elections.

It’s another misstep for Wetzel-Biehl, who announced in September that her office mistakenly sent out up to 2,000 duplicate absentee ballots. She blamed it on a data processing error.

According to election commission documents, the commission learned of the uncounted ballots on Dec. 18, when Wetzel-Biehl’s staff told the commission that they recorded more absentee ballots as received than ballots counted in three city wards.

The commission asked Wetzel-Biehl to provide a detailed statement, which she did two days later. The memo stated that on Nov. 12, the clerk’s office discovered 67 unprocessed ballots for Ward 65 and one unprocessed ballot for Ward 68 in a courier bag found in a vote tabulating machine.

The memo also stated that her office was reconciling ballots for Ward 56 on Dec. 3 when 125 unprocessed ballots were discovered in a sealed courier bag. Reconciliation is a post-election process in which officials account for every ballot created. That work begins immediately after an election. Clerks have 45 days to complete it.

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The memo does not offer any explanation, saying only that the clerk’s office planned “to debrief these incidents and implement better processes.”

The clerk’s office issued a statement on Dec. 26 saying it had informed the elections commission and would send an apology letter to each affected voter.

Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway released her own statement the same day saying the clerk’s office didn’t tell her staff about the problem until Dec. 20. She said her office plans to review the city’s election procedures.

“While the discovery of these unprocessed absentee ballots did not impact the results of any election or referendum, a discrepancy of this magnitude is unacceptable,” the mayor said in the statement.

Wisconsin is a perennial battleground state in presidential elections. Republican Donald Trump won the state this past November on his way to reclaiming the White House, beating Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by about 29,000 votes.

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Madison and surrounding Dane County are well-known liberal strongholds. Harris won 75% of the vote in the county in November.



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Wisconsin’s 2024 climate review: A year of unprecedented weather, and record highs and lows

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Wisconsin’s 2024 climate review: A year of unprecedented weather, and record highs and lows


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Record low ice on the Great Lakes. Tornadoes in February. A soggy spring that morphed into deepening drought in the fall. 

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2024 marked an unprecedented series of extreme weather events, and historic highs and lows in Wisconsin. In some way, every season was record-breaking.

These extremes are expected to get more frequent and dramatic because of climate change. And although some may like to think of Wisconsin as a “climate haven,” the effects are already being seen here, and last year offered just the latest evidence.

Wisconsin’s climate is becoming warmer and wetter. Across the state, temperatures have warmed about three degrees and rainfall has increased about five inches, or 17%, since 1950, according to the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts’ most recent report. 

The impacts aren’t just on the environment. They’re economic, too. According to a recent analysis by the Center for Public Integrity, extreme weather events will cost Wisconsin up to $16 billion over the next 15 years. 

The science is clear that climate change is driven by human activity, largely the use of fossil fuels, like coal, oil and gas. These fuels are responsible for 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, which capture heat and warm the planet.

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Steve Vavrus, Wisconsin’s state climatologist, said looking at historical data it’s particularly striking how much warmer the state has become — a trend people may overlook because of year-to-year variability. Based on available data through the end of November, Vavrus said, last year could be Wisconsin’s warmest yet on record.

“It’s like we’re gradually warming up the stove, and we don’t really notice it’s happening,” he said.

Here’s a look back on the unprecedented year of record-breaking highs and lows.

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Wisconsin recorded its warmest winter on record

Last winter was Wisconsin’s warmest-ever on record.

According to the Wisconsin State Climatology Office, December 2023 to February 2024 was the warmest winter in the state since it began keeping records in 1895. 

The average temperature across the state was 28.3 degrees — close to 10 degrees warmer than the typical average. The previous record was 26.1 degrees set in 2001 to 2002.

Wisconsin was not an outlier. The contiguous United States as a whole experienced its warmest winter on record.

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Vavrus previously explained that the balmy temperatures were due to the longer-term warming trend with climate change as well as an El Niño event. 

Wisconsin’s first February tornado

Feb. 8 began sunny and unseasonably warm, with Milwaukee setting a record-high temperature for that date of 56 degrees. 

But that afternoon, storm clouds rolled in, setting the state up for a bizarre bout of severe weather. In the evening, the first-ever February tornadoes in recorded state history ripped across south-central Wisconsin, causing damage upwards of $2.4 million.

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One tornado touched down in rural Green County. The other struck Evansville, in Rock County. 

It isn’t fully understood how climate change is affecting tornadoes, Vavrus said. But one expected outcome is a longer tornado season. They form when warm, humid air combines with wind shear — a change in wind speed or direction over a short distance. Warmer winter temperatures in Wisconsin mean those conditions could occur outside of the typical tornado season, May through August.

Evansville Mayor Dianne Duggan said there was “a lot of talk and head-shaking” about the timing of the tornado, which she said “is a climate change issue.” 

“I guess we just need to be on our toes all the time now,” she said. 

In total, Wisconsin experienced 45 tornadoes in 2024, the third-highest annual amount in state history.

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Record-breaking ice season seen in Lakes Michigan, Superior

Average ice cover across all five Great Lakes from January to March was 4.3% — the lowest on record since scientists began recording it 50-plus years ago. 

Across the region, it was only the second time that the average ice cover did not reach 5%, with the first occurrence in 2012 of 4.8%, according to ice data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

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Individually, Lakes Michigan and Superior hit historic lows as well, with average daily ice cover at 4.4% and 2.6%, respectively. 

December is an especially important month when Arctic air should start to cool the lakes down, setting the stage for how much ice there will be, said Bryan Mroczka, a physical scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. December 2023 was Wisconsin’s warmest last month of the year on record, and the first time the state’s average temperature for the month was above freezing. 

Last year’s mid-January cold snap allowed some ice to build, which is when Lakes Michigan and Superior maxed out at about 18% and 12% ice cover, respectively.

Overall, ice cover in the Great Lakes has been declining for the past five decades due to climate change, while also swinging from near record highs to near record lows within a few years.

“We will still have those days where you bundle the kids up to go to the bus stop, but it’s the duration of these Arctic outbreaks — they’re in and out in a matter of days,” Mroczka said. “That keeps the ice from forming.”

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The impacts of low ice cover are far-reaching, impacting ecosystem health, fisheries, recreation and infrastructure. For instance, ice tempers waves during storms, protecting the eggs of Great Lakes fish, like lake whitefish, which overwinter in nearshore areas. Ice can also protect coastal infrastructure and prevent shoreline flooding and erosion. 

In Madison, iconic lakes Mendota and Monona also had far fewer ice-covered days. Lake Monona froze over Jan. 15 and thawed Feb. 28, its shortest duration of ice cover in recorded history. Lake Mendota had ice cover for its second-shortest period in history.

Soggy spring, drought reversal, third wettest June on record

Wetter-than-normal spring conditions led to a dramatic reversal of the state’s yearlong drought that began in June 2023. 

In fact, it was Wisconsin’s third wettest June since scientists began keeping rainfall records in 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. On average, the state saw 7.22 inches of rainfall, more than 2.5 inches higher than normal.

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The heavy rainfall led to significant flooding and storm damage, especially in the northwestern and south-central parts of the state where communities received upwards of six inches of rain above normal. 

More local records were set across the state. For instance, Bayfield County had its wettest June on record, and La Crosse saw 24 days of rain that month, breaking the previous record of 22 days set in 1935 and 2013. As river levels rose, the Mississippi River in La Crosse set a flood stage record for the month of June at about 14.2 feet June 28.

And while Milwaukeeans got to dry off in June — at least compared to the rest of the state — the city had its third wettest spring on record, according to Vavrus. 

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Algae blooms crop up along Lake Superior’s shore

In a state beloved for its water resources, many wonder how algae blooms — particularly those that release harmful toxins — will proliferate in a warmer, wetter climate. 

In general, warming water temperatures are expected to increase the frequency of harmful algal blooms and their size, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 

Wisconsin experts say the impact of climate change is not entirely clear, and that the behavior of each lake may differ. Still, there were atypical bloom events last year that may bear climate fingerprints. 

Across the state’s inland lakes in 2024, 253 blooms were reported as of early December, according to Gina LaLiberte, the DNR’s statewide harmful algal bloom coordinator. About three-fourths of the reported blooms contained cyanobacteria, which can release toxins.

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Both the total number of reported blooms and the fraction that contained cyanobacteria are up from 2023, which saw 174 blooms with two-thirds containing the potentially harmful bacteria. That may be because people are more aware of how to report blooms, LaLiberte said. 

Last year, though, there were “definitely some reports from lakes where people say they’ve never seen the lake like this before,” she said, particularly in northern Wisconsin.

In those instances, she believes climate change may be at play.

Blue-green algae blooms are an emerging problem in Lake Superior, since the first sizable bloom was observed in 2012. 

Scientists attribute Lake Superior blooms to climate change, as the undeveloped lake lacks the usual ingredients for algae blooms, such as farm runoff. Lake Superior is the second fastest warming lake in the world.  

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There were 11 reports of blooms last year along the shores of Lake Superior and within the St. Louis River Estuary wedged between Duluth, Minnesota and Superior, Wisconsin, according to Kait Reinl, a freshwater scientist at the Lake Superior National Estuarine Research Reserve.

Reinl said that some of the blooms last summer had toxins, but most were under the limits for drinking water and recreation. One bloom neared that limit. 

While algae blooms are not uncommon in the other Great Lakes, Reinl said Lake Superior should be held to a different standard.

“If we hold Lake Superior to the lowest common denominator, we have nowhere to go but down,” she said. 

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A burst of heavy rains in June, and then long, hot, dry days

June’s heavy rains drove Wisconsin to its sixth-wettest summer on record. But that didn’t last long.

Summer vibes stretched on through September, with multiple cities setting records for the number of consecutive 80-degree days. Throughout the month, daily high temperatures were more than six degrees above normal. 

It was also exceedingly dry, aside from a powerful burst of rain Sept. 21. Less than 1.5 inches of rain fell across the state throughout the month.

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It went down as the third-warmest and sixth-driest September on record in Wisconsin — a “really unusual” combination of extremes, Vavrus said. Since 1895, only 2% of months in Wisconsin have experienced a temperature extreme and a precipitation extreme. 

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions persisted in October. Madison and Green Bay both recorded 80-plus degree days Oct. 29, setting or breaking records for the latest 80-degree day of the year. At the end of the month, a third of the state was in severe drought and two-thirds was in moderate drought — the first time in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor that Wisconsin was completely in drought. (That drought eased in the weeks since.)

More wildfires hit Wisconsin, and they started earlier

More than 1,100 wildfires burned roughly 2,500 acres in Wisconsin last year, about 260 more than the 10-year average. 

And wildfire season started early, because much of the state was snow-free by February. 

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Typically, fire season starts in the spring and goes south to north as different regions of the state warm up, said Catherine Koele, wildfire prevention specialist for the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Last year, fires started in early February. 

“It feels like nothing is cookie-cutter anymore,” she said. 

The warm and dry fall raised wildfire risk again. Further, fires that happen under drought conditions take longer for crews to put out because they tend to smolder, Koele said. 

An Oct. 18 fire in Green Lake County was the state’s largest, Koele said, burning 646 acres. 

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“We do have fires in the fall, but to have that size of fire, that’s a little unusual,” she said. 

By early December, the state had spent $1.1 million on fire suppression, compared to an annual average of $600,000. 

How can you do your part on climate change?

Scientists agree that the ultimate way to slow the impact of climate change is to limit fossil fuel emissions, which requires drastic steps taken by the worlds’ largest emitters, like the U.S. 

Climate anxiety — or feeling distressed about climate change — has become an ever-growing phenomenon, especially among young people. And taking steps as an individual can feel daunting.  

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Here are a few steps that experts say people can take to help:

  • Talk to friends and family members about climate change. Climate concern is more common than people think, and sharing it with others can build bridges. 
  • Reach out to local, state and federal lawmakers.
  • Use less energy in your home by reducing heating and cooling use; weatherizing; washing laundry with cold water; hanging clothes and linens to dry.
  • Change energy sources where you can, like switching to LED light bulbs or electric appliances and vehicles.
  • Talk to health providers about the ways climate change and extreme weather may impact health. Create a climate-health plan with your provider, including how to get to appointments or safeguard medications during extreme weather events that may cause power outages.

Caitlin Looby and Madeline Heim are Report for America corps member who writes about the environment. Caitlin Looby can be reached at clooby@gannett.com. Madeline Heim can be contacted at 920-996-7266 or mheim@gannett.com.

Please consider supporting journalism that informs our democracy with a tax-deductible gift to this reporting effort at jsonline.com/RFA or by check made out to The GroundTruth Project with subject line Report for America Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Campaign. Address: The GroundTruth Project, Lockbox Services, 9450 SW Gemini Dr, PMB 46837, Beaverton, Oregon 97008-7105.



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Top-ranked Wisconsin women’s hockey set for outdoor game

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Top-ranked Wisconsin women’s hockey set for outdoor game


The Wisconsin women’s hockey team will face quite the challenge, with one of the two meetings taking place from a special venue.

The top-ranked Badgers will host No. 2 Ohio State on Thursday from LaBahn Arena in Madison, Wisconsin. The two will then play on Saturday from Chicago, Illinois and Wrigley Field, the home of Major League Baseball’s Chicago Cubs. 

Wisconsin’s men’s team will face No. 1 Michigan State the same days and from the same locations. Saturday’s contest will air live on Big Ten Network.

The Badgers are coming off a sweep over Minnesota State, as they closed out the 2024-25 season going 19-1. In the calendar year of 2024, Wisconsin went an incredible 40-3 overall.

Saturday’s outdoor game marks the first time since 2010 they have played outside, as that was a 6-1 win over Bemidji State from Camp Randall Stadium, the home of the Badger football team.

Wisconsin and Ohio State split the first pair of meetings, with the Badgers winning, 4-2, and the Buckeyes posting a 3-2 win for the lone loss to date for Wisconsin.





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