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Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: Recent polls

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Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: Recent polls


Donald Trump may not win Wisconsin in November as recent polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is just ahead in the key swing state.

The former president will appear at a rally in Juneau on Sunday as the Republican looks to appeal to voters in The Badger State with less than one month to go until November’s election.

Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes is one of the battleground states which could determine who wins the neck-and-neck 2024 race overall.

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three so-called blue-wall swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, barring any shock results elsewhere. Harris would need to win the one Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in this scenario, with polls suggesting she is on course to do so.

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Trump could win the 2024 election overall by beating Harris in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and flipping Wisconsin.

Forecasters and polling aggregators suggest that Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Wisconsin, although the race is still too close to call.

Donald Trump speaks at a press conference on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee. Polls suggest Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in The Badger State.

Jim Vondruska/Getty Images

A recent Marquette Law School poll showed Harris ahead with a 4-point lead over Trump by (52 to 48) among registered and likely voters in a head-to-head matchup.

In a full presidential candidate ballot that included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3 percent), Harris had a 5-point lead over Trump among likely voters (49 percent to 44).

The Marquette Law School Poll survey was conducted between September 18 to 26 among 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters. The margin of error for both results is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

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Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.

An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters also showed Harris as having a 4-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin (52 percent to 48).

The poll was conducted August 29 to September 29, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

A Trafalgar group survey of 1,097 likely Wisconsin voters, carried out between September 28-30, showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris in the state (47 percent to 46). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Elsewhere, a New York Times/Siena College survey said Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin by 49 percent to 47.

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The poll surveyed 680 registered voters in Wisconsin between September 21-30, with the margin of error around 4 percentage points.

The polling average from aggregator 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said Harris has a 1.6-point lead over Trump (48.4 percent to 46.8) in Wisconsin as of October 5.

RealClearPolitics’ polling average gives Harris a narrower lead of 0.8 points (49 percent to 48.2).

The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill says Harris has a 53 percent chance of winning Wisconsin in November.

President Joe Biden won all three of the blue-wall battlegrounds during his 2020 election victory, beating Trump in Wisconsin by 0.6 points.

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Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016 by 0.7 points—the first time the state had voted for a Republican candidate since 1984.



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Wisconsin’s minimum wage has been $7.25 an hour since 2009. Will it go up in 2026?

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Wisconsin’s minimum wage has been .25 an hour since 2009. Will it go up in 2026?


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With consumers still concerned about affordability, nearly two dozen states across the country will raise their minimum wage next year.

The minimum wage will increase in 19 states and 49 cities and counties on Jan. 1, 2026, plus four more states and 22 municipalities later in the year, USA TODAY reported, citing an annual report from the National Employment Law Project.

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Wisconsin’s minimum wage has not changed since 2009, when the federal minimum wage was set at $7.25.

But will it be one of the states raising its minimum wage in 2026?

Here’s what to know:

Is Wisconsin increasing its minimum wage in 2026?

No, Wisconsin is not one of the states increasing its minimum wage in 2026.

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What is Wisconsin’s minimum wage?

Wisconsin’s minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That’s the same as the federal minimum wage.

What states are raising their minimum wage in 2026?

Here are the 19 states increasing their minimum wage on Jan. 1, 2026, according to USA TODAY:

  • Arizona
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Hawaii
  • Maine
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • New Jersey
  • New York
  • Ohio
  • Rhode Island
  • South Dakota
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington

Alaska, Florida and Oregon will implement increases later in the year, according to the report. California also plans to enact a minimum wage increase specifically for health care workers.

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Andrea Riquier of USA TODAY contributed to this report.



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Wisconsin Loses Second Bid to Block Tax Exemption in Spat With Catholic Charity

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Wisconsin Loses Second Bid to Block Tax Exemption in Spat With Catholic Charity


The Wisconsin state government lost decisively a second time in what has become a convoluted effort to block a Catholic charity from receiving a long-running state tax exemption.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court on Dec. 15 blocked state Attorney General Josh Kaul’s attempt to fully eliminate an unemployment tax exemption after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Diocese of Superior’s Catholic Charities Bureau was entitled to the tax break.

The U.S. Supreme Court in June had ruled that Wisconsin violated the First Amendment when it denied the tax exemption to the Catholic group on the grounds that the group’s charitable undertakings were not “primarily” religious.

The state responded in October by moving to eliminate the exemption entirely, arguing that the tax break is “discriminatory” and that ending the policy would “avoid collateral damage to Wisconsin workers.”

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In a brief order on Dec. 15, the state’s high court affirmed that the U.S. Supreme Court ruling allows the Catholic charity to access the tax break. The court directed the state Labor and Industry Review Commission to declare the charity eligible for the exemption. 

The religious liberty law group Becket, which has represented the Catholic charity in the legal fight, said in a press release that the Wisconsin Supreme Court had ended the state government’s “crusade” against the Catholic charity. 

“You’d think Wisconsin would take a 9-0 Supreme Court loss as a hint to stop digging,” Becket Vice President Eric Rassbach said. “But apparently Attorney General Kaul and his staff are gluttons for punishment.” 

“Thankfully, the Wisconsin Supreme Court put an end to the state’s tomfoolery and confirmed that Catholic Charities is entitled to the exemption it already won,” Rassbach said. 

The ruling “protects not just Catholic Charities, but every faith-based organization that relies on this exemption to serve the public,” he added. 

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In its June ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court said the First Amendment “mandates government neutrality between religions” and that Wisconsin had failed to adhere to this principle in refusing to issue the tax exemption to Catholic Charities. 

“It is fundamental to our constitutional order that the government maintain ‘neutrality between religion and religion,’” Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in the decision. “There may be hard calls to make in policing that rule, but this is not one.”

Justice Clarence Thomas, meanwhile, said that governments “may not use [entities such as a Catholic charity] as a means of regulating the internal governance of religious institutions.”

Following the ruling this week, David Earleywine — the associate director for education and religious liberty at the Wisconsin Catholic Conference — said the Catholic charity has been fighting for the exemption for “decades.”

“[T]rue Catholic charity is inherently religious and cannot be reduced to another secular social service,” he said.

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Insider: Wisconsin Man Charged With Possession Of Virtual Child Pornography

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Insider: Wisconsin Man Charged With Possession Of Virtual Child Pornography


POLK COUNTY (DrydenWire) – An investigation by the Wisconsin Department of Justice, Division of Criminal Investigation, into multiple cybertips from Google about suspected child sexual abuse materials has resulted in felony charges for a Wisconsin Man.

Cody Struemke, age 27, of Amery, WI, is facing nearly a dozen charges for possessing child pornography, including Felony Possession of Virtual Child Pornography.

The criminal complaint against him alleges that Struemke saved a photo from Facebook of juveniles known to him, and digitally edited the photo to make it appear they were nude.

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Last Update: Dec 16, 2025 9:27 am CST





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