A tornado watch has been issued for much of central and eastern South Dakota as forecasters warn conditions are favorable for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds Wednesday evening.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center issued the watch at 4:05 p.m. CDT, and it will remain in effect until 11 p.m. It includes dozens of counties across central and eastern South Dakota, as well as parts of southeastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

More: Tornado watch issued? Here’s what to do when sirens go off

Forecasters expect thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of a cold front moving southeast across the Dakotas. The strongest storms could become supercells capable of producing all severe weather hazards.

The severe weather threat is expected to continue Thursday, when another round of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop across parts of South Dakota. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will again be possible.

What are expected impacts of South Dakota storms?

Storms that remain isolated could produce tornadoes and very large hail before merging into a line of thunderstorms later in the evening, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Once storms organize into a line, damaging winds are expected to become the main threat, although brief tornadoes and hail will remain possible.

The National Weather Service office in Sioux Falls said portions of southeastern South Dakota face a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather Wednesday evening. Atmospheric conditions include high instability, increasing wind shear and abundant moisture, creating an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms.

In addition to severe weather, some areas could receive heavy rainfall. Most locations are expected to receive between a quarter-inch and three-quarters of an inch of rain, although isolated areas could see more than an inch. Widespread flooding is not expected, but localized flooding could occur in areas that recently received heavy rainfall.

Where will storms hit in South Dakota?

Storms are expected to develop in central South Dakota between late afternoon and early evening before moving east through the night. Forecasters expect the strongest storms to reach the Interstate 29 corridor between about 10 p.m. and midnight.

Radar: Severe weather in South Dakota

South Dakota weather watches and warnings

Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.

• Ten Republicans who lost their seats in the Legislature in 2024 are trying to win them back this year.
• Incumbents and lawmakers who gave up House seats to run for Senate fell to challengers in several places.
• Votes are still being tallied across the state.

The makeup of the Legislature was up in the air as of 1 a.m. after South Dakota’s primary election. 

Ten Republican state lawmakers ousted in 2024 are angling to get their seats back in 2026. Results were mixed for the nine who had primaries on Tuesday, with results still coming in for several races and others set for possible recounts.

Shawn Bordeaux of Rosebud won the state’s only Democratic primary, beating Troy “Luke” Lunderman for a chance to return to the state Senate.

Bordeaux will face Chamberlain Republican Rebecca Reimer in November’s general election. Reimer, who was term-limited in the state House of Representatives, beat Lower Brule Sen. Tamara Grove in Tuesday’s primary.

WATERTOWN: Recounts possible after tight Codington County vote in primary

In Watertown’s District 5, Rep. Josephine Garcia fell in a state Senate primary to incumbent Sen. Glen Vilhauer. Garcia beat Byron Callies in the 2024 primary to earn her seat in the House of Representatives, but opted to challenge Vilhauer for his Senate seat instead of seeking reelection to the House. 

Callies, Vilhauer and Garcia are all from Watertown.

Vilhauer won with 59% of the vote. His was one of the first state legislative victories of the night reported on the Secretary of State’s website.

Vilhauer won handily, but he said he wasn’t necessarily expecting to as polls opened on Tuesday.

“I knew it was going to be a battle going in,” Vilhauer said. “She worked hard on her side, and I didn’t know what to expect.”

Callies was among the first to call Vilhauer to congratulate him, around 9:30 p.m.

“I’m happy, because Glen’s a solid legislator,” said Callies, who’s angling to win his seat back in the general election.

Garcia did not return a call seeking comment.

GOVERNOR: Toby Doeden forces runoff against Gov. Larry Rhoden

In District 21, Sen. Mykala Voita of Bonesteel beat former Sen. Erin Tobin of Winner in a rematch of their 2024 contest, which Voita won by a few dozen votes that year. This time around, Voita bested Tobin by 1,002 votes. 

In response to a request for comment, Voita sent a text reading “Glory to God!”

Tobin did not return a call from South Dakota Searchlight about her race after it was called, but said earlier in the evening she would be “at peace” with the results regardless of what they might be.

Another rematch saw Yanktonites Lauren Nelson and Jean Hunhoff battling for District 18’s state Senate seat. Nelson was a newcomer in 2024 when she beat Hunhoff, who’d spent decades in the Capitol between stints in the House and Senate. On Tuesday, Nelson held off Hunhoff, winning by 243 votes.

Other notable races

• District 4 Rep. Dylan Jordan of Clear Lake, first elected in 2024, finished fourth in a five-way race. As of 1 a.m. Wednesday, he trailed Ryan Kohl of Milbank and former Rep. Fred Deutsch of Florence, in first and second place, respectively. A recount is possible in that race, with 59 votes separating the top two vote-getters while Rep. Kent Roe, of Hayti, came in third place, with 72 fewer votes than Deutsch.
• District 4 has two possible recounts. In the other, Bryant’s Stephanie Sauder beat Clear Lake’s Tim Begalka by 105 votes in the unofficial tally from the Secretary of State.
• District 1 Rep. Logan Manhart of Aberdeen, elected in the 2024 primary, fell to Rep. Nick Fosness, a hospital administrator appointed by Gov. Larry Rhoden in 2025, and newcomer Daniel Kjos.
• Another recount was possible as of Wednesday at 1 a.m., in the District 16 race for House of Representatives. Rep. John Shubeck of Beresford trailed Lisa Bogue of Beresford by 245 votes in unofficial results. Jason VanDenTop of Canton was in third place, trailing Shubeck by 68 votes.

Republican businessman Toby Doeden has advanced to a runoff in South Dakota governor’s race, NBC News projects.

Subscribe to read this story ad-free

Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.

Advertisement

Gov. Larry Rhoden, who replaced Kristi Noem last year when President Donald Trump nominated her to lead the Department of Homeland Security, was battling with Rep. Dusty Johnson and former state House Speaker Jon Hansen for a second spot in the July 28 runoff. The primary will go to a runoff because no candidate eclipsed 35% of the vote.

Trump did not issue an endorsement in the race. Doeden branded himself on his campaign website as “a total political outsider who’s tired of the government’s failure to deliver on its promises” and one of Trump’s “fiercest supporters.”

Rhoden, a former lieutenant governor, agriculture secretary and lawmaker, campaigned on property tax cuts and lowering crime in his bid for a four-year term.

Johnson is the state’s lone representative in the House, where he previously was chair of the Republican Main Street Caucus. Hansen, who was elected to the South Dakota House in 2010, held several leadership positions before he became speaker.

The Republican nominee will be the favorite to win the general election in the solidly red state this fall. A Democrat has not served as governor in South Dakota since the 1970s, and Trump carried the state by 29 points in 2024.